Edge Gap
Hit rate on its own is useless, because the market has already priced it. A prop hitting 100% of its last ten at −6000 is worth nothing. What matters is the distance between a player's weighted history and the price being offered.
Edge Gap = Blended hit rate − Implied probability
Edge Gap ranks. It does not predict. A +27.7 gap is not a 27.7% profit and not an 82% chance of winning tonight. Those historical rates came from a different distribution of lines than the one on the board today. Our real graded hit rate is 57%, and that is the only number that describes what actually happens.
Anything above +40 we treat as a broken line rather than value, and either verify it or exclude it.
The matchup layer
Edge Gap ranks; the matchup gates. Each leg gets a verdict of Confirms, Neutral or Conflicts, and a Conflicts drops the leg no matter how large the gap.
When a pick conflicts we check whether the opposite side, or a combination version of the same player, confirms instead. A real case: Lauren Betts Under 6.5 Points was dropped because Las Vegas is worst in the league against centres — and that same fact made her Over 9.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists one of the best legs on the board.
When we don't publish
- Football preseason and NCAAF Week 1. No usable hit-rate history, so Edge Gap does not apply. Playing time becomes the entire handicap and we say so at the top of the card.
- Both teams resting starters. That is a coin flip with vig. No play is the correct answer.
- Signals disagreeing. Where public betting and line movement point opposite ways, we make no call and explain why.
- Unverified lines. We never invent a number. Five verified picks beat ten with five made up.
What we get wrong
Raw implied probability includes the bookmaker's margin, blended hit rate over-weights players in form, and small samples are a constant trap — batter-versus-pitcher under 30 plate appearances gets ignored entirely. Every card ends with the strongest argument we can make against our own top pick. That section is not optional.