The Prop Builder

Every live leg from today's cards in one sortable board. Filter by sport, tier, matchup verdict or market — then click legs into the slip and see what the book pays against what our numbers say it should. Free while we build it out.

	Pick	Selection	Odds	Implied	Blended	Gap	Matchup	Confidence	Prop Score

How to read this board

Never seen odds before? Start here — this walks through one real pick, left to right.

Worked example — row 1, Browns

1 · The Odds

-108

The sportsbook's price. A minus number means you risk more than you win — here, $108 to win $100. A plus number is the reverse.

2 · Implied

51.9%

That price as a percentage: the chance the market gives it. This is the number to beat.

108 ÷ (108 + 100) = 51.9%

3–4 · Blended / Edge Gap

—

Blank on purpose. These columns need current-season hit-rate history, and every pick on today's board is from a slate that has no 2026 games played yet (or where our stats source is down). On those days the read comes from reported workloads, verified news and line movement instead — and the card says so.

no data > fake data

5 · Matchup

Confirms

The last check: does tonight's opponent support the pick or work against it? This can veto a leg however big the gap.

The one thing to understand before anything else. Edge Gap ranks picks against each other — it does not predict how often they win. A +27.7 gap is not a 27.7% profit or an 82% chance tonight. Those historical rates came from a different set of lines than the one on the board right now. Use it to see which pick is strongest today, not to forecast a result. Our actual graded hit rate is 52% — the honest number, on the track record page.

Every column, plainly

Player

Who the bet is on, game underneath. "TEX @ ATH" means Texas away, Athletics home.

Pick

Over = the stat lands above the number, Under = below. "H+R+RBI" is hits plus runs plus runs-batted-in combined.

Odds

The price when we published. These move — check your own book before acting.

Implied

Odds converted to a percentage. Computed from the odds, so it can never be mistyped.

Blended

Weighted hit rate across four windows, so a hot last-five can't outweigh a full season.

Gap ↓

Blended minus Implied. Sorted highest first. Above +40 we treat the line as broken and exclude it.

Matchup

Our read on tonight's opponent — positional defence, pitcher handedness, injuries both sides.

Confidence

How strongly our signals agree on this read — not how often it wins. Derived from Edge Gap and the matchup verdict, capped at 90%.

Prop Score

A 0–10 scorecard for player props built from six panel inputs (below). Stars are the shorthand: ★★★★★ 8.5+, four 7.0–8.4, three 5.5–6.9, two 4.0–5.4. Hover the score for the component breakdown.

Checkbox

Click any row to add it to the parlay calculator. Click again to remove.

The Prop Score, component by component

Component	Max	What earns it
Median cushion	2.5	how far the player's median sits past the line, scaled by stat
Hit-rate windows	2	L10 and 2025 agreement (both ≥80% = full, one ≥70% = half)
Role security	2	share of touches/targets, and whether the sample is THIS role
Opponent rank	1.5	rank on the exact stat pointing the pick's way
Script fit	1	team pass/run rate and expected game state support the volume
Line & market	1	line moved against a strong panel = full; already ran toward us = 0
Injury cap	6.0	a Questionable tag on the player (or his quarterback) caps the total at 6.0, reason printed

Every point traces to a field on the player's matchup panel — median vs the line, hit-rate windows, touch or target share, opponent rank on that exact stat, the team's pass/run rate, and where the line has moved. Because the components are stored, they get graded individually: after enough legs we can see which parts predict hits and re-weight the rubric in public. Nothing under 4.0 is published. Team picks carry confidence instead; they have no panel to score.

What “confidence” actually means

It is confidence in the read, not the odds of winning. A pick at 79% does not win 79% of the time — our real graded hit rate is 52%, and that is the honest number. The percentage measures how strongly the signals agree: it starts at 50, rises with Edge Gap (saturating at +35, because past that a gap is more likely a broken line than a better bet), adds 12 when the matchup Confirms, subtracts 20 when it Conflicts, and is capped at 90. The cap is deliberate. Nothing we publish earns a 95.

Team / game-line picks work differently. They have no hit-rate history and therefore no Edge Gap, so their confidence is assigned by the analysis — and every one of them carries a written note saying what it rests on.

What the coloured labels mean

+27.7

Green — High. Edge Gap of +25 or more. The strongest tier we publish.

+19.6

Amber — Moderate. A real gap, but smaller. Still on the card, ranked below the greens.

Confirms

The matchup supports the pick. An Under on rebounds against the best rebounding defence, for instance. Our most trusted legs.

Neutral

Neither helps nor hurts. The pick stands on its Edge Gap alone.

Conflicts

The matchup argues against it — so we drop it, however large the gap. You won't see these here; they're listed in the post with the reason.

The parlay calculator, explained

Parlay

Several picks as one bet. Every leg must win or the whole thing loses. Bigger payout, much lower chance.

Book pays

The combined price. +421 means $100 returns $421 profit if every leg lands.

Market's chance

How likely the sportsbook's price says the whole slip is.

Our estimate

Each leg's blended rate multiplied together. Optimistic by nature — see below.

Model vs market

How far apart those two sit. Near 1× is believable; 3× or more means our model is wrong, not that you found free money.

Hits about

Roughly how often it lands by our own estimate. "1 in 3" loses twice for every win.

Correlated legs

Two picks from the same game. Outcomes affect each other, so multiplying overstates your real chance — and most books block these.

Why we show it

Others show a big payout number. We show when the maths stops being credible. Legs multiply our errors faster than your edge.

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