No Cherry-Picking

Our Track Record

Every card we publish gets logged here — hit and miss — and the running numbers update every week. This is our credibility, so we don't get to hide from it.

First results are in — and we're publishing them as-is. Our Aug 9 cards graded 2-for-8 on the legs we could independently verify. Four legs (a starting pitcher and three players on a team not back in action yet) rotated off Outlier's live board before we could pull their box scores, so we're marking those unverified rather than guessing or leaving them out. See the full leg-by-leg breakdown below.
8
Legs Tracked (Verified)
25%
Hit Rate (All-Time)
25%
Hit Rate (Last 30 Days)
2
Cards Published
DateSportCardLegs HitResult
Aug 9, 2026 MLB Astros @ Padres (6-Leg Card) 2/5 verified (1 unverified) MISS
Aug 9, 2026 WNBA Valkyries @ Sparks (6-Leg Card) 0/3 verified (3 unverified) MISS

Aug 9 Leg-by-Leg Breakdown

MLB — Astros @ Padres

Rengifo (SD) Under 0.5 RBIs — HIT. 0 RBIs on the day.
Varsho (HOU) Under 0.5 RBIs — MISS. Drove in a run.
Walker (HOU) Over 0.5 Hits — MISS. Went hitless.
Altuve (HOU) Over 0.5 Hits — MISS. Went hitless.
Machado (SD) Under 1.5 Bases — HIT. Stayed under the line.
Vásquez (SD) Under 3.5 Strikeouts — UNVERIFIED. As a starting pitcher, he rotated off Outlier's live board before we could pull his line for this date — we don't have an independent box score for this leg yet.

WNBA — Valkyries @ Sparks

Stokes (GSV) Under 2.5 Assists — UNVERIFIED. Golden State isn't back in action yet, so she's off the live board.
Hayes (GSV) Over 1.5 Assists — UNVERIFIED. Same — off the live board with the rest of Golden State.
Charles (GSV) Over 3.5 Rebounds — UNVERIFIED. Same.
Hamby (LAS) Over 13.5 Points — MISS. Scored 12.
Burrell (LAS) Under 2.5 Rebounds — MISS. Grabbed 3.
Brink (LAS) Over 8.5 Points — MISS. Scored 7.
Process note: Outlier's props board only surfaces players with an active or upcoming line, so pitchers between starts and teams between games drop off before we can grade them the next day. Going forward we're grading same-night or next-morning, while the player is still on the board, to close this gap.

How We Track

Every Leg Counts

Nothing gets excluded

Every leg from every published card is logged — including the weakest-link picks we flag as riskier going in.

Weekly Updates

Recap posted every week

A full breakdown of the week's cards, hit rate, and what we'd do differently, published alongside this page.

Independent

Settled by final box score

Results are graded against official final stats, not self-reported.