Same screen as always — odds no worse than −160, at least 80% over one hit-rate window, across bases, hits, RBIs, runs, strikeouts, and the hits+runs+RBIs combo — deduplicated to one leg per player, then spread one per game where the board allowed it.
Two names that cleared Edge Gap on paper didn't make the final card, for two different reasons. We're publishing both.
The Card
Stale-line and thin-sample filter caught one before it reached the card. Buddy Kennedy (COL @ SF) Under 0.5 Bases showed an Edge Gap of +36.3 — close enough to our +40 broken-line cutoff to make us look twice, and when we did, his L20 hit-rate window came back empty. That's a two-input blend standing in for a four-input one, propping up a number that already looked almost too good. We passed.
The reasoning
Ryan Jeffers — Over 0.5 Hits. Season, last-10, and last-20 are all clustered in the 80s, with no single week doing the heavy lifting. The largest Edge Gap on the board tonight.
Andruw Monasterio — Over 0.5 Bases. Same player, same case as two nights ago: season and recent form agree, and he delivered on this exact number last time out.
Moisés Ballesteros — Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Season and last-20 both clear 80%+ on staying under this line; last-10 is a touch softer but still comfortably supportive.
Heliot Ramos — Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Full-season rate (58%) and last-10 (90%) both point the same direction. We checked for the kind of hot-recent-history-vs-this-exact-opponent conflict that got him dropped from an earlier card — nothing here suggests that trap is repeating tonight.
Cal Raleigh — Under 0.5 Runs. Season rate leads the blend at 75%, with last-10 and last-20 both at 90%. The price (−185) already reflects a lot of this, but the history clears our bar even after accounting for it.
Sal Stewart — Over 0.5 Hits. Consistent across every window, with a heavy −303 price doing real work against the edge — the number is real, but it's the shortest price on the card, so there's very little room for error.
Tyler Soderstrom — Over 0.5 Hits. Featured again after hitting this same number last time out. Everyday role, producing well across recent windows.
Jackson Merrill — Over 0.5 Runs. The plus-money price (+110) is doing a lot of the work on Edge Gap here — a modest 65 blended rate still clears a 43% implied number by a wide margin. Different market than the RBI leg that missed on him two nights ago.
Jacob Young — Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Lowest Edge Gap on the card, still clears our threshold. Consistent form across the recent windows we track.
What we screened out
Buddy Kennedy — dropped for a thin sample stacked on a near-stale line. See the callout above. Either flag alone might not have been enough to cut him; both together were.
Jorge Polanco — dropped for a pattern, not a one-off. His name has now shown up tagged to Washington's side of this exact matchup on back-to-back nights with an attractive number attached, and on both nights he was absent from the actual lineup we verified. We think our data source has him mistagged to the wrong team — his active roster appears to be the Mets, not the Nationals — and until that's sorted out we're not publishing him regardless of how the number looks.
The case against our own #1 pick
Jeffers is a catcher, and catchers are the position most likely to get a surprise rest day. Nothing in tonight's reporting suggests he's out of the lineup, but the position carries a real floor risk that a middle infielder or outfielder with the same hit rate wouldn't — a late scratch for a "veteran rest day" is a void, not a loss, but it's still the single biggest way this pick doesn't cash regardless of the number being right.
We're keeping him at #1 because the underlying rate is the strongest on the board and there's no specific reason to expect a scratch tonight. Just know the risk on a catcher prop is never purely about the bat.
Odds and lines move; everything above was recorded pregame and may differ by the time you read it. Always confirm your own price.