Same screen as always — odds no worse than −160, at least 80% over one hit-rate window, across bases, hits, RBIs, runs, strikeouts and the hits+runs+RBIs combo — deduplicated to one leg per player, then spread one per game.
The largest Edge Gap on today's board is not a pick, because its game had already started. Freddy Peralta (Baltimore–Tampa Bay) Under 6.5 Strikeouts screened at a blended 87.1 against a 56% implied number — an Edge Gap of +31.1, comfortably the best figure we generated today. That game had a 12:15 PM ET first pitch and we finished this card at 12:23 PM ET. A pick you cannot place is not a pick, so it is recorded here and excluded from the card rather than published eight minutes late.
The Card
Lines and hit-rate windows captured from our props screen Sun Aug 16 · 12:10–12:23 PM ET. Implied probability is taken from the best available price and includes the vig, so Edge Gap overstates true edge — it is a ranking tool, not a profit projection.
Check first pitch before you place any of these. We confirmed start times directly for four games — Boston–Pittsburgh 1:35 PM ET, New York–Toronto 1:37 PM ET, Miami–Cincinnati 1:40 PM ET and Kansas City–Los Angeles 4:07 PM ET. The remaining five are standard Sunday afternoon and early-evening starts and were all still ahead of first pitch when we published, but we did not verify each clock individually and you should. Baltimore–Tampa Bay was the one game confirmed already underway, and it is excluded above.
The reasoning
Tommy White — Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. The largest playable edge today, and most of it comes from the price rather than the history: −119 implies just 52%, while his season rate (75%) and last-20 (80%) both sit far above it. Sample caveat worth stating — he has no 2025 major-league line at all, so the blend leans on a single season plus recent form rather than a long track record.
Andruw Monasterio — Over 0.5 Bases. The same leg that cashed for us last night, and the underlying numbers have if anything firmed up: 90% over the last 20, 90% over the last 10, 75% on the season. This is the most internally consistent profile on the card.
Jorge Polanco — Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs, and an apology attached. See the correction below. On the numbers this is a strong leg: 76% season, 85% last-20, 90% last-10, against a 57% implied price.
Jake Bauers — Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. The steadiest mid-card profile: 76% on the season and 90% over both the last 20 and last 10. Facing the Dodgers is not a soft spot, and the price (−168) is the shortest on the card outside Meidroth.
Oswald Peraza — Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. 85% last-20 and 90% last-10 on staying under this number, with a 66% season rate underneath it. Consistent rather than spectacular.
Chase Meidroth — Over 0.5 Bases. Strongest season rate among the Overs on this card at 73%, with 90% last-10. The −185 price does real damage to the edge, which is why he sits sixth rather than second.
Byron Buxton — Under 0.5 Runs. A plus profile built almost entirely on recent form — 100% last-5, 100% last-10 — sitting on top of a modest 52% season rate. That gap between recent and season is exactly the shape we treat with suspicion, and it is why the blend lands at 73.3 rather than the 90s the recent windows might suggest.
Andrés Giménez — Over 0.5 Bases. He cleared our screen twice today (bases and hits+runs+RBIs). We publish the better of the two rather than the player twice.
JJ Bleday — Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Lowest edge on the card and the weakest season rate behind it (55%). It clears our bar; it is not a leg we would push anyone toward.
A correction we owe from last night
We dropped Jorge Polanco yesterday for a data problem that did not exist. Last night's card removed him on the theory that our source had him mistagged to Washington when his active roster was the Mets. We were wrong about what the tag meant. The WSH @ NYM label identifies the game, not the player's team — Polanco is a Met, the Mets were in that game, and he started at designated hitter and went 1-for-4. Our screen-out reasoning was faulty and cost us a leg we had correctly identified. He is back on the card today on his merits, and the underlying lesson is that we should have checked a box score before inventing a data-integrity story.
What we screened out
Freddy Peralta — dropped on the clock, not the numbers. +31.1 Edge Gap, first pitch 12:15 PM ET, published 12:23 PM ET. See the callout at the top.
Tyler Soderstrom — dropped on availability, not the numbers. He screens at a +22.0 Edge Gap and would otherwise have made this card. He was also on our card last night and did not appear in the game at all, which voided that leg. Until we can confirm he is in a starting lineup rather than assume it, we are not publishing him again. Two of our last three void results have come from exactly this failure mode.
The double-double and fantasy-score aisle — never eligible. Worth stating for readers comparing our board to a raw screen: props like "Under 0.5 Double Double" at −3025 sit at the very top of an unfiltered hit-rate sort at 97–100%. They are not edges, they are the market charging you 30-to-1 for a near-certainty. Our odds floor exists to keep them off the page.
The case against our own #1 pick
Tommy White's edge rests on the thinnest history on the card. There is no 2025 major-league sample for him at all, so where every other leg blends four windows against a multi-year backdrop, his is effectively one season plus recent form. A 75% season rate on a partial season carries a much wider honest interval than the same number on a full one, and the 80% last-20 that supports it is sixteen-for-twenty — a real signal, but not a precise one. If any leg on this card is being flattered by a small denominator, it is this one.
We are keeping him at #1 because the price is genuinely mispriced relative to every window we can see, and because demoting the largest measured edge on a hunch would be the opposite of what this method is for. But the ranking is a statement about the number, not a statement of confidence in the player.
What we did not run today
No matchup layer on this card, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Our baseball matchup gate — batter platoon splits against the starter's handedness, the pitcher's own splits, park and weather, bullpen rest — was not completed for this slate. That work sits between the Edge Gap ranking and a finished card, and today it did not get done. Read this as a price-versus-history screen only. Every leg above could still be running into a starter who dismantles that exact profile, and we have not checked.
Odds and lines move; everything above was recorded pregame and may differ by the time you read it. Always confirm your own price and that the player is in the lineup.