Lines and public betting captured from our data platform between 7:15 and 8:20 AM ET, Tuesday August 18. Every game below was more than ten hours from first pitch when this published, which means these will move. A handful already moved between our two captures this morning — where they did, the later number is the one shown. Confirm your own price.
The finding that shaped this card
On a fifteen-game slate, the money is on the Over in thirteen games. Not marginally: the median gap between percentage of money and percentage of tickets on the Over tonight is over twenty points, and it reaches 97% in San Francisco at Cleveland, 98% in Arizona at Boston and 94% at Wrigley. Only two games buck it — San Diego at the Mets (87% of money on the Under) and the Angels at Houston (78% on the Under).
A signal that appears in thirteen of fifteen games is a market condition, not an edge. We normally treat a large money-versus-ticket gap on a total as meaningful. Tonight we mostly cannot, because there is almost nothing to distinguish. What is left worth reading is the magnitude at the extremes, and the two exceptions — and both of our totals leans tonight come from exactly those two places.
Why this matters for the props card too. We dropped Brayan Rocchio's Under out of San Francisco at Cleveland because of the 97% figure, and we dropped Moisés Ballesteros's Under partly because the Angels game is one of the two exceptions. Those are the only two places we let the totals money into a prop decision, and we are naming the inconsistency rather than pretending we applied it evenly.
Game by game
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
6:35 PM ETMoneyline
NYY −108 / BAL +106
Run Line
NYY −1.5 +158 / BAL +1.5 −160
Total
O 8.5 −102 / U 8.5 +100
Carlos Rodon (4–2, 3.30) against Shane Baz (4–12, 4.00) — the largest ERA-and-record gap between starters on the slate priced at almost a pick'em, which is the market telling you it trusts Baltimore's lineup more than Baz's record. 85 degrees at Camden with a five mile-an-hour wind across. our data platform flags EV+ on the Yankees run line. The public betting is the strange part: 75% of tickets are on the Yankees moneyline but only 62% of the money, a thirteen-point tilt toward Baltimore as the dog — and yet 92% of the money is on the Yankees −1.5 against 48% of tickets, a forty-four point tilt the other way. Money on the dog to win outright and money on the favourite to win by two.
no lean
No lean on the game. The moneyline and run-line money are pointing in opposite directions in the same game, which is the same pattern we called noise yesterday in Baltimore at Tampa Bay. We are not going to call it signal today because it is bigger. The total is the quietest market on the board — 46/54 on tickets, 52/48 on money — and a six-point gap is nothing.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
6:40 PM ETMoneyline
STL −111 / CIN +111
Run Line
STL −1.5 +145 / CIN +1.5 −147
Total
O 8.5 −104 / U 8.5 +103
Kyle Leahy (9–4, 3.37) against Andrew Abbott (6–7, 4.13) in a genuine pick'em, one day after these two split a doubleheader that ended on Elly De La Cruz's first career walk-off. Wind blowing out at Great American, which is already one of the friendlier parks for the ball. our data platform flags EV+ on the Under 8.5. The money says the opposite, loudly: 91% of the money is on the Over against 57% of tickets, a thirty-four point gap.
no lean
No lean, because our two best sources disagree head-on. The model badge is on the Under and nine dollars in ten are on the Over. When a model and the money take opposite sides of the same number there is no honest way to pick which one to follow, and picking one because it is the one we can rationalise is how you end up with a record you cannot explain. We also dropped JJ Bleday Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs out of this game — he bats third with the platoon edge and the wind is out.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
6:40 PM ETMoneyline
DET +130 / PIT −133
Run Line
DET +1.5 −163 / PIT −1.5 +160
Total
O 7.5 −112 / U 7.5 +113
Keider Montero (9–7, 3.22) against Braxton Ashcraft (12–5, 3.82), two teams one game apart in the standings, wind blowing out at PNC. Detroit won here 8–5 last night. our data platform flags EV+ on Pittsburgh −1.5, and the money agrees emphatically: 77% of the money on Pittsburgh's run line against 33% of tickets, a forty-four point gap and one of the three loudest on the board. The moneyline is quiet by comparison (45/55 tickets, 52/48 money).
62
Confidence
Pittsburgh −1.5 at +160. This is the cleanest agreement between a model badge and a money share we found tonight, and unlike most of the loud numbers on this slate it is on a side rather than a total. A forty-four point money-versus-ticket gap on a plus-money run line is the shape of somebody betting size on a specific outcome, not of the public piling onto a favourite. Held at 62, not higher, for two reasons: the moneyline in the same game shows no such conviction, which is odd if you genuinely think Pittsburgh wins comfortably; and a −1.5 run line is a two-run margin in a game with a 7.5 total, which is a lot to ask.
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
6:40 PM ETMoneyline
SF +180 / CLE −175
Run Line
SF +1.5 −122 / CLE −1.5 +121
Total
O 8.5 +113 / U 8.5 −115
Two left-handers, and they are not close in quality: Carson Whisenhunt (3–3, 6.11 ERA) against Foster Griffin (13–4, 3.25). San Francisco are 51–73, the worst record playing tonight. our data platform flags EV+ on the Giants at +180, which the money flatly rejects — 85% of it is on Cleveland. The number that matters is the total: 97% of the money is on the Over 8.5 against 64% of tickets. That is the single largest money-versus-ticket gap of any market in any game tonight.
62
Confidence
Over 8.5 at +113. A thirty-three point money gap, plus money on the price, and a 6.11 ERA starter for the visiting side. This is also the consistent position: we dropped Brayan Rocchio Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs from our card specifically because of this 97% figure, and having refused to fade it with a prop we are not going to ignore it here. Held at 62 because a single very large ticket can produce a 97% money share — percentage of money counts dollars, not opinions, and one whale is not a consensus. The EV+ badge is on the Giants moneyline, not on the total, so the model is not corroborating this.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
6:40 PM ETMoneyline
TOR +127 / TB −129
Run Line
TOR +1.5 −168 / TB −1.5 +164
Total
O 7.5 +100 / U 7.5 −103
Jose Soriano (9–6, 3.16) against Nick Martinez (12–3, 2.74), indoors, and the 7.5 total is the lowest on the board — both books expect the best pitching matchup of the night to look like one. Tampa Bay are 75–49, the best record in the American League. No EV+ badges anywhere in this game. Public betting: 67% of tickets on Tampa Bay but only 60% of the money, a seven-point drift toward Toronto. The run line is louder — 75% of money on Tampa Bay −1.5 against 45% of tickets.
no lean
Andrés Giménez Over 0.5 Bases at −140 is our leg out of this game and it is on the card — a +15 Edge Gap on a blended 73.3, with the platoon edge as a left-handed bat. It is the smallest edge we published and it lives in the lowest-scoring environment on the slate against the best pitcher any of our players face. No lean on the game itself: a seven-point moneyline drift is inside the noise, and we are not taking a side in the one game where neither the model nor the money has an opinion worth acting on.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
6:40 PM ETMoneyline
MIA +220 / PHI −217
Run Line
MIA +1.5 −101 / PHI −1.5 +100
Total
O 8.5 +111 / U 8.5 −115
Zack Wheeler (10–4, 2.89) against Tyler Phillips (3–6, 3.65), and Phillips is listed as a primary pitcher rather than a conventional starter — Miami are effectively running a bullpen game against the best starter on tonight's board. 20% chance of rain. our data platform flags EV+ on the Marlins moneyline and on Marlins +1.5. The money is with it: 37% of the money on Miami off just 12% of tickets, a twenty-five point gap, and 82% of the money on Philadelphia −1.5.
no lean
No lean, and this is a deliberate refusal. This is the same bet we made yesterday — Miami +230 with an EV+ badge and the same standings argument — and it lost 6–5. Nothing has changed except the price got worse (+220 instead of +230) and the pitching matchup got harder. Taking it again today would mean the reason we took it yesterday was never the reasoning, it was the badge. A twenty-five point money gap on a dog is a real signal and we are passing on it anyway, because Wheeler against a bullpen game is a specific reason to expect the favourite to win comfortably and we do not have an answer to it.
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
7:10 PM ETMoneyline
SD −108 / NYM +107
Run Line
SD −1.5 +154 / NYM +1.5 −156
Total
O 8.5 −102 / U 8.5 +101
Two left-handers with good numbers: Robbie Ray (10–7, 3.28) against Zac Thornton (3–3, 2.78). These two played a 2–1 game last night. San Diego are 67–59, the Mets 57–69, and the Mets are the tiny favourite at home — eleven games of standings erased by home field and a starter. our data platform flags EV+ on Mets +1.5. This game has the two biggest money gaps on the slate and they contradict each other: 93% of the money on the Mets moneyline off 44% of tickets (+49), and 90% of the money on San Diego −1.5 off 37% of tickets (+53). Money on the Mets to win, money on the Padres to win by two or more. The total is the one market where everything agrees: 87% of money on the Under 8.5 against 62% of tickets.
64
Confidence
Under 8.5 at +101. We are not taking a side here, because the side money is self-contradictory in a way that cancels out — a forty-nine point gap on the Mets and a fifty-three point gap on the Padres run line cannot both be informed. The total is different. It is one of only two games in fifteen where the money fades the Over on a slate that is otherwise unanimous the other way, it is backed by two left-handed starters with ERAs of 3.28 and 2.78, and these same two clubs produced a 2–1 game twenty-four hours ago. Plus money on the number is the last thing that gets it to 64 rather than 60. Held below 70 because 18% precipitation is enough to change a game plan and because one 2–1 result is one result.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
7:10 PM ETMoneyline
AZ +155 / BOS −156
Run Line
AZ +1.5 −140 / BOS −1.5 +138
Total
O 8.5 +100 / U 8.5 +102
Merrill Kelly (8–10, 5.11) against Ranger Suarez (4–3, 3.25), the rematch of an 11–1 Boston win in which the Red Sox did not strike out once. 73 degrees, wind five across, 13% rain. our data platform flags EV+ on Arizona +1.5 — and 96% of the money is on Boston −1.5, against 68% of tickets. The moneyline money leans the other way again: 40% on Arizona off only 16% of tickets. Total money is 98% on the Over.
no lean
No lean. The model badge and the money are on opposite sides of the same run line, which is as clean a contradiction as this board produces. Both of tonight's totals numbers here are extreme (98% Over) and both of the side numbers are extreme (96% Boston run line, +24 money tilt to Arizona on the moneyline) and they do not resolve into a picture. Our own read is that Boston's lineup is the better one and Suarez the better pitcher, but that read is already in a −156 price.
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
7:40 PM ETMoneyline
ATH +130 / KC −130
Run Line
ATH +1.5 −160 / KC −1.5 +156
Total
O 9.5 +103 / U 9.5 −105
Jack Perkins (2–9, 7.27 ERA) against Mason Black, listed as a primary pitcher. The two worst records on the slate — Athletics 49–76, Royals 52–74 — and the highest total on the board outside Coors at 9.5, which is the market pricing Perkins honestly. 88 degrees. No EV+ badges anywhere in this game. The run-line split is the largest single number on the entire board: 98% of the money on Kansas City −1.5 against 46% of tickets, a fifty-two point gap.
no lean
No lean, and the 98% is the reason rather than the argument. Percentage of money counts dollars, so a fifty-two point gap in a game between the two worst teams on the slate is far more likely to be one enormous ticket than a syndicate view — these are not games that attract deep, informed money. There is no EV+ badge anywhere in this game to corroborate it, which is itself information: the model sees nothing mispriced. We also dropped two Royals legs from our card here (Isaac Collins and Salvador Perez, Under 0.5 Runs) because a 7.27 ERA starter and a 9.5 total is the wrong place for a runs Under. Passing on all of it is the consistent answer.
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
7:40 PM ETMoneyline
ATL −120 / MIN +120
Run Line
ATL −1.5 +138 / MIN +1.5 −141
Total
O 8.5 −112 / U 8.5 +111
Tyler Mahle (4–9, 4.64) against Zebby Matthews (6–8, 5.34), 26% chance of rain, and Atlanta at 74–51 are the best team playing tonight. Minnesota won here 4–2 last night. our data platform flags EV+ on Minnesota's moneyline and on the Over 8.5 — badges on the dog and on runs. The public betting is the opposite of interesting: 77% of tickets and 88% of the money on Atlanta, 63% of tickets and 88% of the money on the Over. Crowd and cash in the same place, only louder.
no lean
Jim Jarvis Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at −160 is our leg here and it is on the card — +17 gap on a blended 78.5, and he bats ninth, which is the best structural support a hitter Under can have. Note it is a single book sitting exactly on our odds floor. No lean on the game: when the money simply amplifies the ticket count there is no disagreement to exploit, and the EV+ badge on Minnesota is pointing directly into 88% of the money on Atlanta.
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
7:40 PM ETMoneyline
SEA +142 / MIL −142
Run Line
SEA +1.5 −150 / MIL −1.5 +150
Total
O 7.5 −105 / U 7.5 +104
Bryce Miller (4–6, 3.39) against Kyle Harrison (9–3, 2.99), indoors, with Milwaukee at 77–48 owning the best record in baseball. No EV+ badges in this game. Public betting: 98% of the money on Milwaukee's moneyline off 85% of tickets, and 97% of the money on Milwaukee −1.5 off 66% of tickets. The run-line gap of thirty-one points is real; the direction is the same one the crowd already picked.
no lean
No lean. Ninety-eight percent of the money on the best team in baseball, at home, behind their best starter, is not a discovery. The run line shows a genuine thirty-one point disagreement in magnitude, but it is a disagreement about how much Milwaukee wins by, in the same direction as everybody else, at −142 on a side and +150 on a two-run margin. There is no price here that pays for being right about something this obvious.
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
8:05 PM ETMoneyline
WSH +143 / TEX −144
Run Line
WSH +1.5 −152 / TEX −1.5 +148
Total
O 8.5 +117 / U 8.5 −117
Jackson Kent (0–0, 6.75 in a short sample) against Cal Quantrill (4–4, 3.44), indoors, two teams within a game and a half of each other. No EV+ badges. Public betting: 48% of the money on Washington off 29% of tickets, a nineteen-point tilt toward the dog, and 93% of the money on the Over 8.5 against 66% of tickets.
no lean
Jacob Young Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at −144 is our leg here and it is on the card — +21 gap on a blended 79.7. The honest caveat is that he bats ninth, which is the wrong end of a lineup for an Over. No lean on the game: a nineteen-point money tilt toward Washington is real but modest, Kent's 6.75 ERA comes from a sample too small to mean anything in either direction, and the Over money here is the thirteenth of fifteen games leaning the same way tonight.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
8:05 PM ETMoneyline
CWS +150 / CHC −153
Run Line
CWS +1.5 −144 / CHC −1.5 +140
Total
O 8.5 −108 / U 8.5 +108
Erick Fedde (6–8, 4.51, primary) against Kevin Gausman (6–11, 4.53), and the weather is the story: 52% chance of rain and a ten mile-an-hour wind blowing out at Wrigley. The Cubs won last night 7–5 in ten innings on a Pete Crow-Armstrong walk-off. No EV+ badges. Public betting: 79% of tickets and 83% of the money on the Cubs; 89% of the money on Cubs −1.5 off 52% of tickets; 94% of the money on the Over.
no lean
No lean, on weather. A 52% rain probability is a real chance of a delay, a shortened game or a postponement, and every market above prices a nine-inning game. We also took White Sox +1.5 at −140 here yesterday and lost it by exactly one run in extras — the Cubs won by two. We are not re-running that trade one day later at a worse number in worse weather. We dropped Michael Busch Under 0.5 Runs from our card out of this game for the same weather reason: he bats third and the wind is out.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
8:10 PM ETMoneyline
LAA +152 / HOU −153
Run Line
LAA +1.5 −136 / HOU −1.5 +130
Total
O 9.5 +121 / U 9.5 −122
George Klassen (1–1, 5.52) against Cristian Javier (1–3, 6.68), indoors. The Angels are 49–76 and Houston 63–62, and the price is a near-pick'em on the road dog once you account for the number. our data platform flags EV+ on Houston −1.5 and on the Over 9.5. Public betting: 34% of the money on the Angels off just 15% of tickets, a nineteen-point tilt onto the dog, and — unusually for tonight — 78% of the money on the Under 9.5 while tickets split exactly 50/50.
57
Confidence
Los Angeles Angels moneyline at +152. A +152 price implies 39.7%, and a nineteen-point money tilt onto a road dog facing a starter with a 6.68 ERA is the kind of disagreement we are in business to find. This is also one of only two games all night where the money fades the Over, which tells you the informed side of this game is not simply betting chaos. Held at 57 — the lowest number we are publishing — because the game contains a flat contradiction we cannot resolve: our data platform's model flags the Over 9.5 while 78% of the money sits on the Under. One of those two is wrong, we do not know which, and the price is not generous enough to make that comfortable.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
8:40 PM ETMoneyline
LAD −176 / COL +174
Run Line
LAD −1.5 −115 / COL +1.5 +115
Total
O 11.5 −104 / U 11.5 +101
Eric Lauer (7–6, 4.67) against Ryan Feltner (5–6, 5.59), 37% rain, and an 11.5 total — two full runs higher than anything else on the board. The Dodgers won 11–5 here last night. No EV+ badges. Public betting is the only place tonight where the money is less committed than the crowd on a favourite: 90% of tickets on the Dodgers but 85% of the money, and 89% of the money on Dodgers −1.5 off 69% of tickets.
no lean
No lean, and it is the same no-lean as yesterday. Our screen surfaced Teoscar Hernández on four separate Unders here plus Connor Norby, Cole Carrigg and Kyle Tucker — the largest raw Edge Gap on the whole board (Hernández Under 1.5 Bases, +25.5) came out of this ballpark. We threw every one of them out on park factor, because a hit-rate window built at sea level does not transfer to Coors Field. Having refused the props on principle, taking a side or a total in the same game would be incoherent. We sit this park out entirely.
The leans, ranked
| Lean | Game | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 | SD @ NYM | +101 | 64 |
| Pittsburgh −1.5 | DET @ PIT | +160 | 62 |
| Over 8.5 | SF @ CLE | +113 | 62 |
| Los Angeles Angels ML | LAA @ HOU | +152 | 57 |
Four team leans and four player legs out of fifteen games — seven games with a call, eight without. The games we had least conviction on were Toronto at Tampa Bay (no model badge, no meaningful split, best pitching matchup on the board) and Washington at Texas (a starter with no usable sample). The games where we had a signal and refused it anyway are Miami at Philadelphia and the Athletics at Kansas City, and the reasons are in each entry.
The strongest argument against our #1
Under 8.5 in San Diego at the Mets is a bet on two pitchers we have almost no data on, dressed up as a bet on a money split.
Zac Thornton is 3–3 with a 2.78 ERA. That is a good number attached to a small number of starts, and a 2.78 built over a handful of outings tells you far less than it looks like it does — it is the pitching equivalent of the last-five hit-rate window we spend every morning warning readers not to over-weight. Robbie Ray at 3.28 is the more established of the two and he is also the one who has been prone to walks. Two left-handers is a structural argument, not a numerical one.
Second, the 87% money share is in the same game as two contradictory money shares on the sides. If we are prepared to say the moneyline money and the run-line money cancel each other out because they cannot both be informed, we should at least ask whether the totals money in that game is coming from the same confused place. We do not think it is — the totals number is corroborated by the slate-wide pattern breaking here specifically — but that is an inference, not evidence.
Third, and simplest: this exact matchup produced a 2–1 game last night, and we are treating that as supporting evidence. One game is one game. If yesterday had finished 9–7 we would not be citing it.
What we did not do
We did not pull bullpen usage from last night for any of these fifteen teams, which is a real gap on a slate where four clubs are running primary pitchers rather than conventional starters. We did not check umpire assignments — none were announced at publication. We did not pull individual starter platoon splits with a sample attached; the handedness notes above are directions, not magnitudes. And every lineup reference is to an expected lineup captured at 8:05 AM ET, not a posted one.
Sources: moneylines, run lines, totals, EV+ badges and public betting splits from our premium data platform, captured Tue Aug 18 7:15–8:20 AM ET. Starting pitchers, expected lineups, park and weather from our lineup service, captured 8:05 AM ET. Yesterday's final scores from CBS Sports.