Fifteen games. Six leans, nine no-leans. Three of the nine are no-leans
because the money in that game contradicts itself — large gaps pointing at both a team to win and
its opponent to cover, in the same market pair. That pattern showed up three times today and it is the
single most useful thing on this page: a big money-versus-ticket gap is only information when the other
markets in the same game agree with it.
How to read the splits
% of Bets is a headcount and % of Money counts dollars. A ten-dollar ticket and a
ten-thousand-dollar ticket are one bet each. When the money share sits well above the ticket share, a
small number of large accounts are on that side. When the two track together — Arizona at Boston's
moneyline is 25/75 on tickets and 28/72 on money — there is no signal at all, and we say so
rather than manufacturing one. Two points is nothing. Fifty-two points, which is what the Yankees total
is showing, is loud.
Yesterday the money was on the Over in thirteen of fifteen games, which made the direction useless.
Today it is more mixed: the money favours the Over in ten and the Under in five, and in two games
— the Yankees and the Reds — the money and the crowd are on opposite sides of the
total rather than merely disagreeing about size.
Every game on the board
Detroit @ Pittsburgh · 12:35 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| DET ML | +147 | PIT ML | −150 |
| DET +1.5 | −146 | PIT −1.5 | +145 |
| Over 8.5 | +115 | Under 8.5 | −118 |
Paul Skenes (9–11, 3.88) against Jackson Jobe (1–1, 6.23) is the largest starter gap on the early board. Pittsburgh took this same series opener 4–1 last night behind Braxton Ashcraft. Detroit's lineup is heavily left-handed in the middle. Weather is a non-factor: 77°, 2% precipitation, wind 9 mph right to left.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 26 / 74 | 20 / 80 | PIT +6 |
| Run line | 42 / 58 | 3 / 97 | PIT −1.5 +39 |
| Total | 55 / 45 O | 80 / 20 O | Over +25 |
Lean: Pittsburgh −1.5 at +145. Ninety-seven percent of the money on a plus-money run line off fifty-eight percent of tickets, with the best starter on the early slate. The moneyline shows only a six-point tilt, which means the money is specifically buying the margin rather than the win — a narrower and more informative bet than it looks.
San Diego @ NY Mets · 1:10 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| SD ML | −129 | NYM ML | +125 EV+ |
| SD −1.5 | +142 | NYM +1.5 | −140 |
| Over 8.5 | −102 | Under 8.5 | +101 |
Michael King (8–8, 3.41) against Robert Stock (0–2, 6.57). San Diego won 5–2 here last night and our Under 8.5 landed on a seven-run game. Citi Field, 84°, wind 6 mph blowing out, no precipitation.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 70 / 30 | 76 / 24 | SD +6 |
| Run line | 54 / 46 | 95 / 5 | SD −1.5 +41 |
| Total | 48 / 52 O | 81 / 19 O | Over +33 |
No lean. Ninety-five percent of the money on San Diego −1.5 is as loud as anything on the board — and our data platform's own model has the EV+ badge on the Mets moneyline, the opposite side of the same game. When the money and the model point at each other that directly we do not have a read, we have two reads, and we are not going to pick one and call it conviction.
Atlanta @ Minnesota · 1:40 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| ATL ML | −104 | MIN ML | +104 |
| ATL −1.5 | +155 | MIN +1.5 | −156 |
| Over 8.5 | −107 | Under 8.5 | +104 |
AJ Smith-Shawver (0–0, 4.15) against Taj Bradley (9–5, 3.98). The Atlanta starter's record is the problem: a 0–0 line means we are pricing a handful of innings, and this is the second game today where the visiting arm has no usable season shape. Minnesota won 4–1 last night. Target Field, 74°, wind 2 mph out.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 59 / 41 | 70 / 30 | ATL +11 |
| Run line | 50 / 50 | 75 / 25 | ATL −1.5 +25 |
| Total | 55 / 45 O | 75 / 25 O | Over +20 |
No lean. The money leans Atlanta across all three markets by moderate amounts — eleven, twenty-five and twenty points — which is a consistent tilt rather than a loud one. With a starter carrying no meaningful sample we would be betting the money's opinion and nothing of our own.
Chi. White Sox @ Chi. Cubs · 2:20 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| CWS ML | +135 | CHC ML | −138 |
| CWS +1.5 | −160 | CHC −1.5 | +155 |
| Over 7.5 | −113 | Under 7.5 | +111 |
Jose Urquidy (1–1, 8.10) against Clay Holmes (5–5, 2.56) — the widest ERA gap on the slate. Chicago took last night's crosstown game 4–3. Wrigley with the wind blowing in at 7 mph, 72°, 9% precipitation.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 27 / 73 | 53 / 47 | CWS +26 |
| Run line | 39 / 61 | 20 / 80 | CHC −1.5 +19 |
| Total | 64 / 36 O | 81 / 19 O | Over +17 |
No lean, and this one is a genuine contradiction. The money is +26 onto the White Sox to win outright and simultaneously +19 onto the Cubs to win by two or more. Those cannot both be informed. On top of that, eighty-one percent of the money is on the Over with the wind blowing in and a 2.56 starter on the mound. Three signals, three directions.
Arizona @ Boston · 4:10 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| AZ ML | +138 EV+ | BOS ML | −138 |
| AZ +1.5 | −152 EV+ | BOS −1.5 | +155 |
| Over 8.5 | +112 | Under 8.5 | −113 |
Brandon Pfaadt (7–1, 3.11) against Payton Tolle (8–6, 2.97, 1.05 WHIP, 10.02 K/9). This is the best pair of starters on the board by some distance. Boston won 9–4 last night. Fenway at 86° with the wind blowing out at 8 mph, which is the argument against everything below.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 25 / 75 | 28 / 72 | tracks — no signal |
| Run line | 35 / 65 | 4 / 96 | BOS −1.5 +31 |
| Total | 53 / 47 O | 16 / 84 O | Under +37 |
Lean: Under 8.5 at −113, confidence 58. Eighty-four percent of the money on the Under off forty-seven percent of tickets, in the one game where both starters are genuinely good. Held low because the wind is blowing out at Fenway on an 86° afternoon and because our data platform's EV+ badges in this game are both on Arizona, not on the total — the model is not endorsing this, only the money is. We are publishing it as a lean and not as a card pick.
Miami @ Philadelphia · 6:05 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| MIA ML | +117 | PHI ML | −120 EV+ |
| MIA +1.5 | −170 | PHI −1.5 | +170 |
| Over 8.5 | −103 | Under 8.5 | +102 |
Sandy Alcantara (13–7, 3.43) against Aaron Nola (4–9, 5.33). Philadelphia won 6–4 last night and we lost a Miami moneyline at +230 in that game. Today Miami is only +117, which tells you the market has noticed the pitching matchup. 85°, wind 7 mph left to right, 1% precipitation.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 34 / 66 | 55 / 45 | MIA +21 |
| Run line | 56 / 44 | 48 / 52 | nothing |
| Total | 47 / 53 O | 34 / 66 O | Under +13 |
Lean: Miami moneyline at +117, confidence 57. A twenty-one point money tilt onto a road underdog whose ace is opposing a 5.33 ERA. The counter is that our data platform's EV+ badge is on Philadelphia and that we already lost this side of this series once this week at a much better price. Low confidence on purpose.
NY Yankees @ Baltimore · 6:35 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| NYY ML | −114 | BAL ML | +113 |
| NYY −1.5 | +140 | BAL +1.5 | −140 |
| Over 9.5 | +112 | Under 9.5 | −111 |
Will Warren (8–6, 4.42) against Chris Bassitt (4–4, 5.11, 10.95 hits per nine, 1.62 WHIP). Two starters who put runners on. New York won 3–1 last night in a game with fourteen Yankee strikeouts. Camden Yards, 86°, wind 5 mph left to right.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 74 / 26 | 79 / 21 | NYY +5 |
| Run line | 54 / 46 | 84 / 16 | NYY −1.5 +30 |
| Total | 37 / 63 O | 89 / 11 O | Over +52 |
Lean: Over 9.5 at +112, confidence 62. Sixty-three percent of tickets are on the Under and eighty-nine percent of the money is on the Over — a fifty-two point gap in which the crowd and the cash are on opposite sides, not merely different intensities. That is the largest and cleanest divergence on the slate. It is also, awkwardly, in the same game as our Heliot Ramos Under and adjacent to our Bassitt strikeout Under, and we say so in the column.
St. Louis @ Cincinnati · 6:40 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| STL ML | +136 | CIN ML | −138 |
| STL +1.5 | −156 | CIN −1.5 | +156 EV+ |
| Over 8.5 | +107 | Under 8.5 | −105 |
Matthew Liberatore (5–10, 5.07) against Chase Burns (14–2, 2.47). St. Louis shut Cincinnati out 3–0 last night. Great American Ball Park with 32% precipitation — the highest rain probability on the board — 75°, wind 3 mph right to left.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 33 / 67 | 10 / 90 | CIN +23 |
| Run line | 44 / 56 | 24 / 76 | CIN −1.5 +20 |
| Total | 25 / 75 O | 92 / 8 O | Over +67 |
No lean, despite the largest number on the page. A sixty-seven point gap with the money on the Over and three-quarters of tickets on the Under is the loudest split of the night. We are not acting on it, for two reasons: Chase Burns is 14–2 with a 2.47 ERA and is the single hardest argument against any Over on this slate, and a 32% rain probability can move a total on its own without telling you anything about how the game will be played. The number is real; our read on what is producing it is not.
Toronto @ Tampa Bay · 6:40 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| TOR ML | +190 | TB ML | −192 |
| TOR +1.5 | −111 | TB −1.5 | +111 EV+ |
| Over 7.5 | −102 | Under 7.5 | +102 |
Max Scherzer (1–5, 6.59) against Drew Rasmussen (12–5, 2.78). Toronto beat Tampa Bay 10–5 last night with seventeen hits off Nick Martinez, which is very likely what has sixty-six percent of tickets on tonight's Over. Domed stadium — no weather input at all.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 25 / 75 | 15 / 85 | TB +10 |
| Run line | 35 / 65 | 1 / 99 | TB −1.5 +34 |
| Total | 66 / 34 O | 33 / 67 O | Under +33 |
Lean: Tampa Bay −1.5 at +111, confidence 65. Ninety-nine percent of the money on a plus-money run line off sixty-five percent of tickets, with the EV+ badge on the same side and a 3.81-run ERA gap between the starters. The total tells a consistent story: the money is +33 on the Under while the crowd chases last night's ten runs. Held at 65 because a two-run margin is a real ask and Toronto just hung ten on this team.
San Francisco @ Cleveland · 6:40 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| SF ML | +180 EV+ | CLE ML | −177 EV+ |
| SF +1.5 | −125 | CLE −1.5 | +128 |
| Over 7.5 | +113 | Under 7.5 | −113 |
Adrian Houser (3–7, 4.28) against Parker Messick (9–7, 2.59). Cleveland won 8–1 last night and our Over 8.5 in that game landed on nine runs. Tonight's total is a full run lower. 77°, 10% precipitation.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 13 / 87 | 4 / 96 | CLE +9 |
| Run line | 16 / 84 | 0 / 100 | CLE −1.5 +16 |
| Total | 68 / 32 O | 89 / 11 O | Over +21 |
No lean. A hundred percent of the money on Cleveland −1.5 looks decisive until you notice that eighty-four percent of tickets are already there — a sixteen-point gap is one of the smaller ones on this board, and a hundred-percent share on a lightly-bet market can be one large ticket. The Over sits at +21 with the money while Messick carries a 2.59 ERA. Nothing here clears the bar we set for the games above.
Athletics @ Kansas City · 7:40 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| ATH ML | +124 | KC ML | −127 |
| ATH +1.5 | −168 | KC −1.5 | +165 |
| Over 8.5 | +102 | Under 8.5 | −104 |
Jeffrey Springs (3–11, 6.17) against Seth Lugo (5–7, 4.59). Kansas City won 4–3 last night. 81°, wind 6 mph blowing in, 19% precipitation.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 23 / 77 | 68 / 32 | ATH +45 |
| Run line | 58 / 42 | 19 / 81 | KC −1.5 +39 |
| Total | 56 / 44 O | 59 / 41 O | +3 — nothing |
No lean — the two loudest signals in this game contradict each other outright. Sixty-eight percent of the money is on the Athletics to win, and eighty-one percent of the money is on Kansas City to win by two or more. Those are +45 and +39 gaps pointing in opposite directions in the same game. This is the clearest example on today's board of why a large money-versus-ticket gap is not automatically information.
Seattle @ Milwaukee · 7:40 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| SEA ML | +115 | MIL ML | −117 |
| SEA +1.5 | −188 | MIL −1.5 | +186 EV+ |
| Over 7.5 | +128 | Under 7.5 | −125 |
Logan Gilbert (9–7, 3.28) against Dustin May (6–7, 4.13), in a dome, the night after Milwaukee beat Seattle 22–0 — a result that tied the modern-era record for the largest shutout. Milwaukee has the fewest home runs in baseball this season at 117. Last night was an our data platform by definition; it is also the only thing anyone betting this game is thinking about.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 24 / 76 | 19 / 81 | MIL +5 |
| Run line | 36 / 64 | 50 / 50 | nothing |
| Total | 72 / 28 O | 55 / 45 O | Over −17 |
No lean, and it is the most instructive game on the board. Seventy-two percent of tickets are on the Over the night after a twenty-two run game, and the money is not following — only fifty-five percent of dollars are on that side, a seventeen-point gap in the negative direction. That is a recency chase visible in real time. It is not enough for us to bet the Under at −125 with Gilbert's total sitting at only 7.5, but it is today's column.
Washington @ Texas · 8:05 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| WSH ML | +122 | TEX ML | −124 |
| WSH +1.5 | −178 EV+ | TEX −1.5 | +174 |
| Over 7.5 | −108 | Under 7.5 | +106 |
Cade Cavalli (10–5, 3.36) against Kumar Rocker (4–9, 4.50). Washington was shut out 5–0 here last night by Cal Quantrill and did not score despite seven hits, which is doing a lot of work on tonight's ticket count. Domed stadium.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 45 / 55 | 90 / 10 | WSH +45 |
| Run line | 64 / 36 | 57 / 43 | −7 |
| Total | 54 / 46 O | 32 / 68 O | Under +22 |
Lean: Washington moneyline at +122, confidence 66. Ninety percent of the money on forty-five percent of tickets, onto a road underdog with the better starter by more than a run of ERA, with the EV+ badge on the same team's run line and the money also +22 on the Under. Every market in this game points the same direction, which is the pattern we saw in Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay and did not see in Kansas City or the crosstown game.
LA Angels @ Houston · 8:10 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| LAA ML | +145 | HOU ML | −147 |
| LAA +1.5 | −146 EV+ | HOU −1.5 | +144 EV+ |
| Over 8.5 | −102 | Under 8.5 | +102 |
Walbert Urena (8–8, 2.67) against Ethan Pecko, who is 0–0 with a 0.00 ERA because he has not yet thrown a major-league inning. The Angels won 3–1 here last night and our moneyline on them landed. Domed stadium.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 30 / 70 | 56 / 44 | LAA +26 |
| Run line | 50 / 50 | 13 / 87 | HOU −1.5 +37 |
| Total | 44 / 56 O | 42 / 58 O | +2 — nothing |
No lean. Same contradiction as Kansas City — the money is +26 on the Angels to win and +37 on Houston to win by two — and on top of that the home starter has no professional sample at this level. We got this side right yesterday at +152 and that is not a reason to take it again into a debut we cannot handicap.
LA Dodgers @ Colorado · 8:40 PM ET
| Market | Price | Other side | Price |
|---|
| LAD ML | −182 | COL ML | +180 |
| LAD −1.5 | −120 | COL +1.5 | +117 EV+ |
| Over 11.5 | +113 | Under 11.5 | −113 |
Roki Sasaki (5–5, 4.46) against Kyle Freeland (4–10, 6.27) at Coors Field, total 11.5 — four full runs above the next-highest number on the slate. The Dodgers won 7–6 here last night. 86°, wind 7 mph right to left, 13% precipitation.
| Market | % of Bets | % of Money | Gap |
|---|
| Moneyline | 89 / 11 | 83 / 17 | LAD −6 |
| Run line | 54 / 46 | 87 / 13 | LAD −1.5 +33 |
| Total | 47 / 53 O | 6 / 94 O | Under +41 |
Lean: Under 11.5 at −113, confidence 60. Ninety-four percent of the money on the Under off fifty-three percent of tickets. Note what this does to our own card: we dropped three Coors Under player props this morning on the grounds that Coors conflicts with any Under, and the market's read is that 11.5 is still too high. Our park rule and this lean disagree, we have published both, and the honest position is that the rule is probably too blunt rather than that the market is wrong.
The leans, ranked
| Lean | Price | Confidence | Resting on |
|---|
| Washington moneyline | +122 | 66 | 90% of money on 45% of tickets; every market in the game agrees |
| Tampa Bay −1.5 | +111 | 65 | 99% of money on a plus-money run line; EV+ badge same side |
| NYY/BAL Over 9.5 | +112 | 62 | Largest gap of the night, money and crowd on opposite sides |
| Pittsburgh −1.5 | +145 | 61 | 97% of money buying the margin, not the win |
| LAD/COL Under 11.5 | −113 | 60 | 94% of money on the Under at Coors |
| Arizona/Boston Under 8.5 | −113 | 58 | 84% of money, best starter pair — but the wind is out |
| Miami moneyline | +117 | 57 | 21% money tilt onto a dog with the ace |
Five of those seven are published as picks and graded. The Arizona/Boston Under and the Miami
moneyline are leans we are naming and not backing — in the first case because the wind at Fenway
argues directly against it and the model badges are on the other team, in the second because we lost the
same side of the same series two days ago at a far better price. Naming a lean we are not taking is
not hedging; it is the difference between what we think and what we are willing to be graded on.
The lowest-conviction games on the board were Atlanta at Minnesota and San
Francisco at Cleveland. Both produced consistent but unremarkable money tilts with nothing loud
enough to act on, and in Atlanta's case a starter with a 0–0 record we cannot handicap. We would
rather record which games we had nothing to say about than let a page of fifteen dives imply fifteen
equally considered opinions.
One thing we could not capture properly, stated plainly. The prices above are
our premium data platform's aggregated best number across the books it tracks, read off the Games board between
8:18 and 8:22 AM ET. We did not capture which individual book was posting each of those numbers,
so we are not going to name one. Prices this far ahead of first pitch will move; treat every figure on
this page as a snapshot with a timestamp rather than as a live quote.
Lines, public betting splits and EV+
badges via our premium data platform, captured
8:18–8:22 AM ET. Starting pitchers, records, ERAs, lineups and weather via
our lineup service daily lineups.
Last night's results via ESPN
and CBS Sports. Milwaukee's
22–0 result and home-run context via
ESPN.