NCAAF · Friday · Week 4 Fri Sep 25 · 5:12 PM ET · 22 hours ago

Friday Night, Week 4: The Dog Whose Quarterback Might Not Play, the Under Built on Clemson's Third Downs, and Three Volume Props That Need the Same Two Things

Three games, five legs: UAB +6.5 after a 3.5-point reverse move on Navy's quarterback news; Clemson–Cal Under 51.5 with the market-maker's dollars 97% on the Under; Chiles U29.5 attempts, Sagapolutele O35.5 attempts and Hendricks O54.5 receiving yards off the panels. Northwestern +20.5 printed, not published. Every game argued against its own number.

PlayerPickOdds ImpliedBlendedGapMatchup Prop ScoreResult
1
UAB
NAVY @ UAB
UAB +6.5 +102 49.5% — — Confirms — HIT
2
Under 51.5
CLEM @ CAL
Under 51.5 -104 51.0% — — Confirms — HIT
3
A. Chiles
NW @ IND
Under 29.5 Passing Attempts -125 55.6% — — Neutral ★★★☆☆6.5 HIT
4
J. Sagapolutele
CLEM @ CAL
Over 35.5 Passing Attempts -107 51.7% — — Confirms ★★★★☆8.0 MISS
5
C. Hendricks
CLEM @ CAL
Over 54.5 Receiving Yards -114 53.3% — — Confirms ★★★★☆7.0 MISS

Friday, Week 4: three carried games, the Army–Temple game kicked at 4:05 PM ET before this run and is excluded. Every game had its Match Details pass (matchup tab, injuries with SHOW ALL INJURED, insights), the Props board was swept for the three games (494 of 498 rows, 198 in the ten core markets, 16 survivors) and 19 Market Details panels were opened; the second opinion — two books' splits with tags, the seven-book Nevada tracker with openers, three rating systems, the expert room — is argued in every verdict. captured Fri Sep 25, 4:48–5:25 PM ET. The Week 4 early-season stability systems have retired (Weeks 0–3 only); no record-backed system fires tonight. Full universe on the NCAAF Insights Board.

Game-state groups on this card (Lesson 10): UAB-hangs-around → UAB +6.5 (one leg); Clemson-stalls → Under 51.5 (one leg); Cal-throws → Sagapolutele O35.5 att + Hendricks O54.5 rec yds (two legs, one position — and compatible with the Under, not the same bet); Indiana-ends-drives → Chiles U29.5 att (one leg). Three groups of one, one group of two.

NAVY at UAB

Navy @ UAB — American

Fri 7:00 PM ET · ESPN
Venue
Protective Stadium · Birmingham, AL · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
77°F, 1% rain, wind 4 (gusts 9) at 7 PM
Line
UAB +6.5 (+102 on our platform; +6.5 −110 at all seven Nevada books) · opened Navy −10 at the market-maker
Total
50.5 (Under +105 here; 51 at five Nevada books, 50.5 at two)
⚡ THE JUICE. Navy's starting quarterback is a game-time decision with an ankle — the beat report at 8:37 this morning named the backup — and the market has told you what it thinks: the market-maker opened this at Navy −10 on Thursday and it is −6.5 everywhere tonight. Three and a half points is not a lean, it is a diagnosis. With the starter, Navy is the second-best rushing team in the country (376 a game, 6.7 a play) against a UAB defense that allows 192 on the ground (124th); without him the option belongs to a quarterback who has 15 carries this season. UAB's side of the ledger is two losses in three, a −5 touchdown margin, and a quarterback whose passing line is 84 yards a game over his last six. Whoever has the ball more wins this, and Navy runs 78% of its snaps.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: Navy holds 68% of the spread money on 75% of the tickets (CONTRARIAN on UAB); the Over holds 47% of the money on 65% of the tickets. The market-maker: UAB 93% of the dollars on 31% of the tickets (+62 — SHARP), the Under 91% of the dollars on 67% of the tickets. Our platform's public betting: Navy 72% of bets, 82% of money; the Over 77% of bets, 75% of money. Tracker: opened −10 at the market-maker, −8 to −10.5 across the street; now −6.5 at all seven books — a reverse line move of 3.5 against 75% of the tickets (RLM, and the strongest kind: explained by an injury). Three rating systems (home line): UAB +6.1 / UAB −2.0 / UAB +3.0 against the market +6.5 — an average of Navy by 2.4, four points of UAB, with one system making the Blazers the favorite. Totals 50.0 / 51.9 vs 50.5. Systems: none fire (the early-season stability systems retired after Week 3). The expert room: UAB +7.5 ×1; Navy 0.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT. UAB +6.5 (+102) — confidence 56. Every layer we own agrees: contrarian at the public book, sharp at the market-maker, a 3.5-point reverse move, all three ratings inside the number and one of them on the Blazers outright, the room's only pick on the dog. The argument against is that the move is already in the price — the injury news is what moved it, and by our own rule a 1.5+ point move is news spent — and that if the starter suits up, Navy's rushing edge against a 124th-ranked run defense is real and the number is fair. So the conviction is 56, not 60. Best number: +6.5 everywhere; the platform's +102 is the price. Total: Under 50.5 printed at 52, not published — both books' dollars are on the Under (+18 and +24 over tickets), Navy's 78% run rate shortens the game, but the number has already come down two from 52.5 and the ratings split (50.0 / 51.9). Props: none published — five panels opened, one WATCH, four declined, and the quarterback decision governs all of them (tiles below).
Props — 5 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Fri Sep 25, 4:48–5:25 PM ET
RBNAVYWATCH
Charles Robinson
C. Robinson U17.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−112
Projection vs line0 median · 5.7 avg vs 17.5 — but 36 yards last game
Role · shareNavy's target leader at 26.9% — of a 15-attempt-a-game passing offense (22% pass rate)
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 0 (0 of 1) · 2025 100
Opponent · lineUAB 6th vs receiving yards (116 allowed) · line 17.5, flat
Nine of ten under 17.5 with a median of zero, against the sixth-best pass defense on the board, in an offense that throws fifteen times a game. The number that stops it: 36 yards two weeks ago at FAU, the only 2026 game on the sheet, and he leads the team in targets. If the backup quarterback starts, nobody knows what this passing game looks like. Rated and capped at 6.0; not bet until the quarterback is named.
UAB 6th vs rec ydsNavy QB game-time decision2026: 0 of 1
RBUABNO PLAY
Rod Robinson II
R. Robinson U58.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0−112
Projection vs line2026 games 59 · 114 · 52 vs 58.5 — no cushion
Role · share36.9% of UAB's carries in 2026, up from a bit part last year
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 · 2026 33 · 2025 100
Opponent · lineNavy 2nd vs rushing yards (40.5 allowed) · line 35.5 open → 53.5 → 58.5 (+23)
The eight-of-ten under is last year's role. This year he has 37% of the carries and has cleared this number twice in three games; the books opened at 35.5 and chased him twenty-three yards. Navy's rush defense is the argument for the under and it is not enough against a 2026 median sitting on the line. Declined by the continuity gate.
Navy 2nd vs rushLine ran +23 — spent2026 role ≠ 2025 role
QBUABNO PLAY
Ryder Burton
Burton U10.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 5.5−112
Projection vs line0.5 median · 3.6 avg vs 10.5 — 2026 games 38 · 16 · −13
Role · share22.3% of UAB's carries in 2026 (29 attempts in three games)
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 · 2026 33 · 2025 100
Opponent · lineNavy 2nd vs rushing yards · line 10.5, flat
A 100% under window from 2025 on a quarterback who has run 29 times for 38, 16 and −13 this season. Two of three over the number in the current offense; the median is a different player's. Declined.
2026: 1 of 3 under
RBNAVYNO PLAY
Michael Barrow
Barrow U46.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.5−112
Projection vs line2026 games 42 · 39 vs 46.5 — under by a carry
Role · share11% of Navy's carries
Hit windowsL10 100 · L5 100 · 2026 100 · 2025 100
Opponent · lineUAB 124th vs rushing yards — wrong way for an under · line 72.5 open → 46.5 (−26)
Ten of ten under looks like a system play until you see the line: opened at 72.5 yesterday and was cut to 46.5 by eight this morning. Both 2026 games are inside seven yards of the new number, UAB is 124th against the run, and Navy averages 376 on the ground. Wrong-way opponent, spent line. Declined.
UAB 124th vs rush — ConflictsLine cut 26 yards
RBNAVYNO PLAY
Vic Listorti
Listorti U50.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.0−112
Projection vs line2026 games 81 · 35 vs 50.5
Role · share13.8% of Navy's carries (15 in two games)
Hit windowsL5 80 · L10 — · 2026 50 · 2025 100
Opponent · lineUAB 124th vs rushing yards — wrong way · line 87.5 open → 50.5 (−37)
Same shape as the Barrow tile: the books opened this at 87.5 and cut it thirty-seven yards. An 81-yard game in the opener, 35 at FAU, a defense that allows 192 a game. Nothing here is mispriced. Declined.
Wrong-way opponentLine cut 37 yards

Screened and declined, on the record: Burton U209.5 pass yds (Navy 132nd vs passing yards — wrong way for an under, Conflicts); CJ Smith U36.5 rec yds (13 of 14 under and 7 a game — but Navy is 132nd vs receiving yards and the line is at the median's ceiling); EJ Reid either side (no L10 window); Gutierrez any market (the backup's markets price a start that has not been announced); every Navy rushing under (spent lines, wrong-way opponent — see the tiles).

NW at IND

Northwestern @ No. 5 Indiana — Big Ten

Fri 8:00 PM ET · FOX
Venue
Memorial Stadium · Bloomington, IN · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
66°F, 1% rain, wind 6 (gusts 13) at 8 PM
Line
Northwestern +20.5 (−103 on our platform; +20.5 at six Nevada books, +20 at the market-maker) · opened +21.5
Total
50.5 (Under −106 here; 50.5 at six books, 50 at one)
⚡ THE JUICE. Indiana has allowed 5.3 points a game, 11 first downs a game and a 27.3% third-down rate — second, third and 21st nationally — and has scored 145 points in three games. Northwestern is 2–0 with a 37.5-point average and a strength of schedule that is actually respectable (16th), but its offense is a run-first unit (62% of snaps) with a quarterback in his first year in the system, and its first two opponents did not have Indiana's front. The injury tab is quiet on both sides: Northwestern is missing a receiver and two tight ends, Indiana a receiver, a back and possibly its kicker (back). This is a 20-point number because the market thinks Indiana's defense ends drives and its offense runs the clock; the props board agrees — every Indiana passing market is priced for an early exit.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: Indiana holds 83% of the spread money on 80% of the tickets (CONTRARIAN on Northwestern); the Over holds 80% of the money on 88% of the tickets. The market-maker: Northwestern 48% of the dollars on 28% of the tickets (+20 — SHARP on the dog); the Over 99% of the dollars on 90% of the tickets. Our platform's public betting: Indiana 81% of bets, 86% of money; the Over 92% of bets, 99% of money. Tracker: opened +21.5 (+22.5 at two books), now +20.5 at six books and +20 at the market-maker — a 1–1.5 point reverse move toward the dog against 80% of the tickets (RLM). Three rating systems (home line): Indiana −21.3 / −5.9 / −22.4 against the market −20.5 — two of three say the number is right or a point short, one is an outlier we do not trust at 15 points. Totals 48.1 / 50.7 vs 50.5. Systems: none fire. The expert room: Northwestern +22.5/+21.5/+20.5 ×3; Indiana −21 ×1.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT. 🎰 NO VALUE ON THE SIDE — Northwestern +20.5 printed at 52, not published. It carries every money tag we have (contrarian, sharp, a reverse move) and not one model layer: the two ratings we trust have Indiana by 21.3 and 22.4. Three straight team legs published on money without a model have lost, and today's ledger flagged that pattern for Tuesday; we will not add a fourth on a Friday night. Reverse line moves grade 1-for-9 on our sheet. Total: STAY AWAY — the market-maker's Over money is 99% on 90% of tickets, which is everyone, and the ratings project 48.1 and 50.7 against 50.5; no side of that is a bet. The card's one leg here is a prop: Chiles Under 29.5 attempts, the play-count bet, tiles below.
Props — 6 panel-read, 1 on the cardplatform panels captured Fri Sep 25, 4:48–5:25 PM ET
QBNWPLAY
Aidan Chiles
Chiles U29.5 pass att★★★☆☆ 6.5−125
Projection vs line23.5 median · 22.6 avg vs 29.5 (+6) · 2026 games 24 · 22
Role · shareStarter, first year in this offense · Northwestern throws 38% of its snaps (49 of 128)
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 100 (2 games) · 2025 89 — the 2025 games are another program's, discounted
Opponent · lineIndiana 47th vs passing attempts (27 a game) · line 27.5 open → 29.5
The bet is a play count, not a quarterback. Indiana allows 11 first downs and 27.3% on third down — opponents go three-and-out and go home — and Northwestern runs 62% of the time by choice. Twenty-four and twenty-two attempts in two games in this offense, a median of 23.5, six under the number. The argument against is the script: a 20.5-point dog trails and throws. The counter is that the last two teams to trail Indiana by three scores still could not stay on the field long enough to throw thirty times. The 2025 windows were earned at another school and score one point, not two; the cushion is the whole leg.
Indiana allows 11 first downs a gameTransfer — windows capped at 1.0Trailing script is the dissent
WRINDWATCH
Shazz Preston
Preston O19.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−119
Projection vs line2026 games 10 · 39 · 32 vs 19.5 — median 32 (+12.5)
Role · share10.5% target share (6 targets in three games) behind two 26% receivers
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 67 · 2025 71 — 2025 at another program, discounted
Opponent · lineNorthwestern 93rd vs receiving yards (226.5 allowed) · line 20.5 → 19.5
Seventeen yards a catch against a defense allowing 226 receiving yards a game, in an offense that scored 145 points in three weeks. The problem is two targets a game — one catch decides it either way — and a 20-point favorite whose starters may be watching the fourth quarter. Rated, not bet.
NW 93rd vs rec yds2 targets a gameBlowout exit risk
WRINDWATCH
Nick Marsh
Marsh O65.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5−118
Projection vs line2026 games 17 · 71 · 81 vs 65.5 — median 71 (+5.5)
Role · shareIndiana's co-target leader · 26.3% share (15 of 57), 8.9 targets a game last year
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 · 2026 67 · 2025 50 — 2025 at another program, discounted
Opponent · lineNorthwestern 93rd vs receiving yards · line 63.5 open → 65.5
The right receiver against the right defense — a quarter of the targets, 93rd-ranked coverage on the other side — and a cushion of five yards on a 20-point favorite that ran 65% of its snaps. Indiana threw 16 and 18 times in two of three games. The number is fair; the script is against. Rated, not bet.
26% target shareNW 93rd vs rec ydsIndiana threw 16 and 18 times
RBINDWATCH
Turbo Richard
Richard O88.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−119
Projection vs line2026 games 58 · 108 · 149 vs 88.5 — median 108
Role · share35% of the carries in a committee (Beebe 40%) · 5.7 a carry
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 80 · 2026 67 · 2025 27 — 2025 at another program, discounted
Opponent · lineNorthwestern 107th vs rushing yards (163.5 allowed) · line 77.5 open → 89.5 (+12)
The blowout script is his friend — Indiana runs 65% and runs more when it leads — and Northwestern allows 163 a game on the ground. Against it: a 40/35 committee, and a line that has already climbed twelve yards from the open. The panel's 108 median is two games. Rated, not bet; the partner's panel did not load, printed as absent.
NW 107th vs rushCommittee — Beebe 40%Line ran +12
QBINDNO PLAY
Josh Hoover
Hoover O251.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0−114
Projection vs line2026 games 231 · 145 · 273 vs 251.5 — median 231
Role · shareStarter, first year in this offense · Indiana throws 35% of its snaps
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 · 2026 33 · 2025 67 — 2025 at another program
Opponent · lineNorthwestern 93rd vs passing yards · line 255.5 open → 251.5
The matchup says yes and the offense says no: Indiana has thrown 16, 18 and 27 times in three games and this quarterback has cleared 251.5 once. Add the fourth quarter he probably will not play. Declined.
Indiana throws 35%2026 median under the line
RBNWNO PLAY
Caleb Komolafe
Komolafe U12.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0−114
Projection vs line2026 games 37 · 27 vs 12.5 — over both times
Role · share10.9% target share in the new offense; 7% last year
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 0 · 2025 92
Opponent · lineIndiana 11th vs receiving yards · line 8.5 open → 12.5 (+4)
The 92% window is last year's role. This year he has 37 and 27 receiving yards in two games, the line has moved four yards up chasing him, and the two games are the pie that counts. Declined.
2026: 0 of 2 underLine chased +4

Screened and declined, on the record: Chiles O181.5 pass yds and O191.5 P+R (Indiana 11th and 6th — Conflicts); Komolafe O34.5 rush and O49.5 R+R (Indiana 18th and 6th — Conflicts); Becker U4.5 rec and U79.5 rec yds (Northwestern 108th/93rd — wrong way for an under); Wilde O55.5 rec yds (Indiana 11th — Conflicts); Dehnicke any market (no window); Beebe O56.5 rush yds (the panel did not load — not rated without one, printed as absent); Sawchuk O18.5 rush (Indiana 18th — Conflicts).

CLEM at CAL

Clemson @ California — ACC

Fri 10:30 PM ET · ESPN
Venue
California Memorial Stadium · Berkeley, CA · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
70°F, 0% rain, wind 9 (gusts 11) at 7 PM local kickoff
Line
Clemson −2.5 (−100 on our platform; −2.5 at five Nevada books, −2 at two) · opened pick'em at the market-maker
Total
51.5 (Under −104 here; 51 at five books, 51.5 at two) · opened 49.5
⚡ THE JUICE. Clemson's offense is broken by every number on the platform's matchup tab: 20 points a game (120th), 20% on third down (136th and last), 4.5 yards a play (126th), 7.3 tackles for loss allowed a game (136th). The starting quarterback is Probable with an elbow and the backup has taken 30 of the team's carries, which tells you who has been playing. Both backup running backs are out, so the lead back gets every carry. Cal, by contrast, has a second-year quarterback who has thrown for 304 a game over his last seven with a 139.5 rating, a 29%-share target leader, and a defense that is mediocre against the pass (64th) and poor against the run (109th) — and the run is the one thing Clemson cannot do (125 a game, 109th). The line opened pick'em and moved to Clemson −2.5 on name value; the total opened 49.5 and moved to 51.5 on Cal's arm.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: California holds 75% of the spread money on 47% of the tickets; the Over holds 53% of the money on 69% of the tickets. The market-maker: Clemson 89% of the dollars on 40% of the tickets (+49 — sharp on Clemson); the Under 97% of the dollars on 43% of the tickets (+54 — SHARP on the Under). Our platform's public betting: California 56% of bets, 80% of money; the Over 73% of bets, 44% of money — the Under 56% of the money on 27% of the bets. Tracker: opened pick'em, now Clemson −2.5 at five books and −2 at two; the total opened 49.5 and is 51 at five books, 51.5 at two. Three rating systems (home line): Cal +3.9 / +0.1 / +1.9 against the market +2.5 — the number is inside all three. Totals 50.9 / 52.2 vs 51.5 — split. Systems: none fire. The expert room: Cal +1.5 ×1, Cal moneyline ×2, Over 49.5 ×1; Clemson 0.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT. Side: STAY AWAY — the two books' dollars are on opposite teams (the public book's money is 75% Cal, the market-maker's is 89% Clemson), which is a printed pass by rule, and the ratings bracket the number. Under 51.5 (−104) — confidence 54. The market-maker's Under dollars are 97% on 43% of the tickets, the public book's tickets are 69% on the Over (contrarian), and our platform shows the same shape — Under 56% of the money on 27% of the bets. The mechanism is Clemson: an offense converting one third down in five does not sustain drives, and the total has moved two points the wrong way for the Over bettors who moved it, which is a better number for us. The dissent is real: Cal's quarterback is the best player on the field, the ratings split 50.9 / 52.2, and there is no reverse move — the line went with the tickets. So 54, not 58. Best number: 51.5 at two Nevada books and here; 51 elsewhere is a point worse. Props (two, one position): Sagapolutele Over 35.5 attempts and Hendricks Over 54.5 receiving yards — both need Cal to throw, and Cal throws; note that the Under wants Clemson to stall, not Cal, and the two are compatible. Tiles below.
Props — 7 panel-read, 2 on the cardplatform panels captured Fri Sep 25, 4:48–5:25 PM ET
QBCALPLAY
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
Sagapolutele O35.5 pass att★★★★☆ 8.0−107
Projection vs line39 median · 39.1 avg vs 35.5 (+3.5) · 2026 games 41 · 34 · 33
Role · shareSecond-year starter, same program · Cal throws 59% (128 of 218 snaps), 43.6 passing plays a game
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 33 · 2025 69
Opponent · lineClemson 130th vs passing attempts (38 a game allowed) · line 33.5 open → 35.5 (+2)
Clemson's defense faces thirty-eight throws a game, 130th of 136, because teams stay on the field against it. Cal throws 59% of the time and its quarterback's median is 39. The books took the number from 33.5 to 35.5 today, which is the market disagreeing — and the two games under it (34 at Syracuse, 33 against an FCS team in a rout) are the argument against. The forty-one against UCLA in a game that stayed close is the comp for a game priced at a field goal.
Clemson 130th vs pass attemptsLine moved +2 against the panel2026: 1 of 3 — the dissentOne position with the Hendricks leg
QBCALWATCH
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
Sagapolutele O259.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 8.0−114
Projection vs line278.5 median · 283.9 avg vs 259.5 (+19) · 2026 games 271 · 182 · 413
Role · shareSecond-year starter · 25.8 completions a game, 139.5 rating
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · 2026 67 · 2025 54
Opponent · lineClemson 105th vs passing yards (238 allowed) · line 254.5 open → 259.5
Six of his last seven over 259.5 against a Clemson pass defense allowing 238. It rates well and it is the same bet as the attempts leg — one player, one script. The attempts leg carries the position; this one is rated and not bet.
Same player as the published legClemson 105th vs pass yds
WRCALPLAY
Chase Hendricks
Hendricks O54.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0−114
Projection vs line2026 games 66 · 31 · 98 vs 54.5 — median 66 (+11.5)
Role · shareCal's target leader · 29% share (8.4 targets a game), 5.4 catches
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80 · 2026 67 · 2025 69 — the 2025 games are another program's, discounted
Opponent · lineClemson 105th vs receiving yards (238 allowed) · line 53.5 open → 54.5 here, 58.5–59.5 elsewhere
Twenty-nine percent of the targets in an offense that throws 59% of the time, against the 105th-ranked pass defense. The cushion is computed from Cal games only — 66, 31, 98 — and the 31 at Syracuse is the honest dissent. The windows are capped at one point because last year's were earned in the MAC. The number is 54.5 on our platform and 58.5–59.5 at other books; take 54.5 or nothing.
29% target shareClemson 105th vs rec ydsTransfer — windows capped at 1.0One position with the Sagapolutele leg
WRCALWATCH
Chase Hendricks
Hendricks O4.5 receptions★★★☆☆ 6.0−148
Projection vs line5 median · 5.4 avg vs 4.5 · 2026 games 6 · 5 · 9
Role · share29% target share
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80 · 2026 100 · 2025 54 (other program)
Opponent · lineClemson 104th vs receptions (20.7 allowed) · line 4.5, flat
Three of three over in a Cal jersey and a defense allowing 20.7 completions a game — but −148 needs 60% and the same player is already on the card. Rated, not bet.
−148 — pricedSame player as the published leg
WRCLEMWATCH
T.J. Moore
Moore O5.5 receptions★★☆☆☆ 5.0−114
Projection vs line5.5 median · 4.9 avg vs 5.5 · 2026 games 4 · 7 · 7
Role · shareCo-target leader · 29.3% share (22 of 75)
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 80 · 2026 67 · 2025 31
Opponent · lineCal 73rd vs receptions (18 allowed) · line 5.5, flat
Seven catches in each of the last two and a 29% share — on an offense converting 20% of its third downs, 136th in the country, with a quarterback question. The median is the line. Rated and capped; not bet.
Clemson 3rd down 20% — 136thQB unsettled — cap 6.0
RBCLEMNO PLAY
Gideon Davidson
Davidson U15.5 rush att★☆☆☆☆ 2.5+115
Projection vs line7.5 median · 8.3 avg vs 15.5 — but 14 and 16 in the last two
Role · share37.8% of Clemson's carries in 2026 — and both backfield partners are OUT
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 67 · 2025 100
Opponent · lineCal 40th vs rushing attempts · line 15.5 (open 15.5)
Fourteen of fifteen under looks like a gift at plus money. It is a trap: the two backs behind him are both out, he took 14 and 16 carries the last two weeks, and the volume moves to him by rule. The teammate's tag is his tag — the under is declined by name.
Backfield partners OUT — volume movesSep 8 rule applied
WRCLEMNO PLAY
Tyler Brown
T. Brown U22.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0−115
Projection vs line10 median · 13.5 avg vs 22.5 · 2026 games 11 · 44 · 28
Role · share12% target share (9 of 75)
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40 · 2026 33 · 2025 69
Opponent · lineCal 64th vs receiving yards · line 24.5 open → 21.5 → 22.5
Five straight road unders — with last year's quarterback. In the 2026 offense he has 11, 44 and 28, two of three over, and the line has been cut two yards chasing the old pattern. Declined.
2026: 1 of 3 underDifferent QB than the window

Screened and declined, on the record: Mohammed any side (13 of 15 under 20.5 carries and 66.7% of Cal's carries — the role and the window disagree, and the partner is Doubtful; no leg); Wesco either side (2026 windows 33/67 on a 4.5-catch median — nothing); Strong O4.5 rec (Clemson 104th but 40% L10); Patt-Henry U14.5 rec yds (10 of 13 under, 6.7% share — a 14-yard number on a tight end is a coin flip at −120); Mini any market; Reynolds any passing market (no window at all — first-start sample; declined until there is one); Sagapolutele U35.5 att (Clemson 130th — wrong way).

The ledger, per leg: every published price is the platform's price at capture; a published leg grades at that price forever, and the card will display the market if it moves. Northwestern +20.5 (52) and Navy–UAB Under 50.5 (52) are printed, not published — money without a model on the first, a spent number and split ratings on the second. Clemson–Cal side is a printed STAY AWAY: the two books' dollars are on opposite teams.

What changed on this card

1 update · newest first
Fri Sep 25 · 5:12 PM ET First publish — Friday Week 4 card (v3 tile grid, three games; Army–Temple excluded, kicked 4:05 PM ET). Our data platform: games board 4:48 PM ET, Props board 5:00 PM (494/498 rows for the three games), Match Details ×3 5:05–5:14 PM, 19 panels 5:16–5:23 PM; the second opinion 4:54–4:55 PM; Open-Meteo 5:07 PM. Navy's quarterback is a game-time decision at publish — the UAB leg is priced on the number as it stands, not on a lineup.

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