NCAAF · Week 3 · Saturday Sat Sep 19 · 9:59 AM ET · Sep 19 Updated Sat Sep 19 · 9:59 AM ET

NCAAF Week 3, Saturday: Fifty-Four Games, the Sharp Money's Dogs in London and Sacramento, Fresno at Plus Money, and a Prop Board That Leans Exceed-Side

The full Saturday slate in kickoff order: eleven sides and three totals where a sharp-dollar layer and a model or system layer land on the same team (Fresno State at plus money, Charlotte ALIGNED, Kansas in London, Sacramento State with six points of ratings), eleven panel-scored props with the why on every tile — six of them exceed-side overs — and twenty-four transfer-portal mirages and role traps declined by name.

Published Sat Sep 19 · 1:12 AM ET · 54 platform games with verdicts · 6,276-line Props sweep, 254 survivors, 32 panels, 12 injury tabs · two-book splits with tags, four-book tracker with openers, three ratings, five systems lists, 164-pick expert room · card format v3

	Player	Pick	Odds	Implied	Blended	Gap	Matchup	Prop Score	Result
1	Kansas ASU @ KU	Kansas +5.5	+100	50.0%	—	—	Confirms	—	MISS
2	Texas A&M UK @ TXAM	Texas A&M −16.5	-108	51.9%	—	—	Confirms	—	MISS
3	Louisiana Tech LT @ BAY	Louisiana Tech +19.5	+101	49.8%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
4	Charlotte CHAR @ APP	Charlotte +17.5	-105	51.2%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
5	Auburn FLA @ AUB	Auburn +2.5	-105	51.2%	—	—	Confirms	—	MISS
6	UConn CONN @ USM	UConn −3	+110	47.6%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
7	Virginia WVU @ UVA	Virginia −10.5	-104	51.0%	—	—	Confirms	—	MISS
8	Louisiana UAB @ ULL	Louisiana −7.5	+104	49.0%	—	—	Confirms	—	MISS
9	San Diego State JMU @ SDSU	San Diego State −1.5	-104	51.0%	—	—	Neutral	—	MISS
10	Sacramento State NDSU @ SAC	Sacramento State +26.5	+105	48.8%	—	—	Neutral	—	HIT
11	Fresno State FRES @ SJSU	Fresno State −6.5	+105	48.8%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
12	Under 58.5 MSST @ SCAR	Under 58.5 Points	+108	48.1%	—	—	Confirms	—	MISS
13	Under 52.5 CHAR @ APP	Under 52.5 Points	+102	49.5%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
14	Under 49.5 FRES @ SJSU	Under 49.5 Points	-103	50.7%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
15	B. Brown FLA @ AUB	Over 275.5 Pass + Rush Yds	-114	53.3%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.5	HIT
16	K. Singleton FLA @ AUB	Over 3.5 Receptions	-114	53.3%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.0	HIT
17	D. Martin WVU @ UVA	Over 22.5 Rec Yds	-105	51.2%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.5	MISS
18	N. Kim EMU @ WIS	Over 133.5 Pass Yds	-114	53.3%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.5	HIT
19	D. Moore Jr. COLO @ NW	Over 45.5 Rec Yds	-108	51.9%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.0	HIT
20	G. Stockton UGA @ ARK	Under 240.5 Pass Yds	-114	53.3%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆8.0	HIT
21	N. Frazier UGA @ ARK	Under 76.5 Rush Yds	-114	53.3%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.5	HIT
22	F. Bothwell MSST @ SCAR	Under 69.5 Rush Yds	-114	53.3%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.5	MISS
23	K. Lacy LSU @ MISS	Under 17.5 Rec Yds	-115	53.5%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.5	HIT
24	L. Avant UNM @ OKLA	Under 66.5 Rush Yds	-114	53.3%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.5	HIT
25	M. Washington VT @ MD	Under 267.5 Pass Yds	-114	53.3%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆8.0	MISS

Updated Sat Sep 19 · 9:59 AM ET Board re-swept over-side this morning; no legs added and no numbers changed — the detail is in the changelog at the foot of this card.

Week 3 Saturday: fifty-four platform games, sharp dollars against the public in London, Charlotte and San José, and a prop board that finally leans exceed-side

Every platform-carried game gets a verdict below, in kickoff order. Eleven sides and three totals cleared the bar this week, and the bar moved Friday: after Thursday's Lions leg died with two model layers and no money, and Tuesday's Cubs total died with two money layers and no model, a side now needs both — a sharp-dollar layer at one of the two books and a rating or record-backed system on the same side — or it prints as a lean and stays off the record. Thirteen games print that way. The props are the other change: six of the eleven are overs with a mechanism (a quarterback who runs a third of his own team's carries against a 116th-ranked pass defense, receivers targeted a quarter of the time into 123rd- and 129th-ranked coverages), and nineteen transfer-portal mirages were declined by name. Board link: NCAAF Insights Board — every game row and every tile.

How to read the money. "The public book" is a major U.S. book; "the market-maker" is the Vegas market-making book. CONTRARIAN = the public book's tickets 65%+ on the other side. SHARP = the market-maker's dollars ten points ahead of its tickets on our side. RLM = tickets 65% one way and the line moved the other. ALIGNED = all three. Ratings are three published power-rating systems' projected home lines. Systems are the season guide's Week-3 stability, coaching-change and returning-starter lists, each with its record. The expert room is the network's graded ledger — counted, never copied. Times are ET.

Coastal Carolina @ Delaware — CUSA, non-conference

11:30 AM ET · CBSSN

Venue

Delaware Stadium · Newark, DE · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

DEL -5.5 (+101) on our data platform · +5 at all four Nevada books · platform +5.5 (−102)

Total

57.5 · opened 58.5, Nevada 56/56.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Four system layers on the home side — Delaware is a Stability-A play with a 15-point edge on the chart, Coastal is a 0–6 fade with a new head coach and a new coordinator — and the ratings will not join them: 6.0, 4.1 and 4.7 for Delaware against a market of 5 to 5.5, which is the number. The public book leans Delaware by dollars (57% on 49% of tickets), the market-maker leans Coastal (60% on 50%). The total is where the two books disagree hardest: public Over 82% of the money, market-maker Under 71% on 83% of the tickets.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: CCAR holds 43% of the spread money on 51% of the tickets; the Over holds 82% of the money on 63% of the tickets. The market-maker: CCAR 60% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets; Over 29% of the dollars on 17% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -5.0, now -5.0 (home line) — best number: +5 at all four Nevada books · platform +5.5 (−102); total opened 58.5, now 56/56.5. Three rating systems (home line): -6.0 / -4.1 / -4.7 vs the market -5.5; projected totals 57.7 / 59.2 vs 57.5. Systems: Stability-A ON Delaware (317-264-12 ATS); Stability-B FADE Coastal (236-193-4); new HC FADE Coastal (134-151); new DC FADE Coastal (191-218-7). The network's expert room: the stability column: Delaware; 0 others counted.

🎯 STAY AWAY — with Delaware −5 printed, not published. The systems are unanimous and the ratings call the number fair; without a money layer on the same side that is a lean under the line. The total is a two-book disagreement, which is a pass by rule.

Props: none survived the screen.

North Carolina @ Clemson — ACC

12:00 PM ET · ESPN

Venue

Memorial Stadium · Clemson, SC · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

CLEM -3.5 (+113) on our data platform · −3 at all four Nevada books · platform −3.5 (+113) / UNC +3.5 (−115)

Total

44.5 · opened 44.5, Nevada 44.5/45

⚡ THE JUICE. The number went from +4 to +3 toward Clemson this week while the market-maker's dollars went the other way (74% Carolina on 55% of tickets) — and the three ratings side with the books that moved it: Clemson by 6.6, 7.2 and 2.6. The expert room is six deep on Carolina, zero on Clemson. The total is the strange one: the public book has 85% of the Under money on 35% of the tickets; the market-maker has 68% of the Over money on 13% of the tickets — sharp dollars on opposite sides.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: UNC holds 53% of the spread money on 48% of the tickets; the Over holds 15% of the money on 65% of the tickets. The market-maker: UNC 74% of the dollars on 55% of the tickets; Over 68% of the dollars on 13% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -3.8, now -3.0 (home line) — best number: −3 at all four Nevada books · platform −3.5 (+113) / UNC +3.5 (−115); total opened 44.5, now 44.5/45. Three rating systems (home line): -6.6 / -7.2 / -2.6 vs the market -3.5; projected totals 43.6 / 44.4 vs 44.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: UNC +3.5/ML ×6; Clemson 0; Under ×3, Over ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on both. Sharp money on Carolina, two ratings at a touchdown for Clemson, a total the two books' cash disagrees on by 50 points. A room this crowded on one side of a 3 is a reason to sit, not a reason to join.

Props: Gideon Davidson U60.5/63.5 rush (L10 100, 2025 100 — as a freshman backup; the line is a starter's line, role trap); Tyler Brown U19.5/22.5 rec (depth).

Bowling Green @ Iowa State — non-conference

12:00 PM ET · ESPNU

Venue

Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

ISU -23.5 (−102) on our data platform · +24 at three Nevada books · platform +23.5 (+105)

Total

43.5 · opened 46.0, Nevada 43/43.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Iowa State has a new head coach and the systems fade it; the ratings do the same, 21.0/20.0/20.8 for the Cyclones against a market at 23.5–24 — three points of Bowling Green. The market-maker is 99% Bowling Green by dollars but on a thin ticket count, and the public book's dollars are Iowa State 60/79. The total: the public book's Under money is 87% on 13% of tickets (+74) and the market-maker's Over money is 99% on 80% — a disagreement.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: BGSU holds 40% of the spread money on 21% of the tickets; the Over holds 13% of the money on 87% of the tickets. The market-maker: BGSU 99% of the dollars on 83% of the tickets; Over 99% of the dollars on 80% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -23.2, now -24.0 (home line) — best number: +24 at three Nevada books · platform +23.5 (+105); total opened 46.0, now 43/43.5. Three rating systems (home line): -21.0 / -20.0 / -20.8 vs the market -23.5; projected totals 44.6 / 45.4 vs 43.5. Systems: new HC FADE Iowa State. The network's expert room: BGSU +23.5 ×1; Under 46 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Bowling Green +24 printed, not published. Three points of ratings edge and a coaching-change fade with the money split by book. The total is a two-book disagreement.

Props — 1 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

QBISUNO PLAY

Jaylen Raynor

Raynor O178.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5−115

Projection vs line150 vs 178.5 — Iowa State games 184 and 117

Role · shareTransfer starter · 35 attempts, 53% pass — at Arkansas State

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 92 (other program)

Opponent · lineBGSU 108th vs pass yds (244 allowed) · line 165.5 open → 179.5

We published his over last week at 151.5 and he threw for 117. The 247 median is an Arkansas State number; in Ames he is 184 and 117 and the book raised the line fourteen yards anyway. Declined — and the Bowling Green rank, 108th, is the reason someone will bet it.

Transfer mirage — lost on him last week

Arizona State @ Kansas — Big 12, at Wembley Stadium

12:00 PM ET · FS1

Venue

Wembley Stadium · London, England · Outdoors (neutral site)

Weather at kickoff

69°F, wind 13 mph with gusts to 25 at kick, rain 41% rising to 57% by the second half — light drizzle likely (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

KU +5.5 (+100) on our data platform · +5.5 on the platform (+100) and at Caesars · +5 at three Nevada books

Total

50.5 · opened 53.0, Nevada 50.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The London game. Kansas lost its backup quarterback (Cole Ballard, shoulder — the beat reports Isaiah Marshall, the starter, is fine and has taken the snaps), its RB2 Kory Amachree and a tight end; Arizona State is without WR Harry Hassmann. The market has moved a half-point toward Kansas since the open (6 → 5) with 72% of the public book's tickets on Arizona State — that is reverse line movement — and the market-maker's dollars are on Kansas, 62% on 33% of tickets. The three ratings have Arizona State by 3.4, 4.8 and 3.4 against a 5–5.5 market: a point and a half of Kansas. The platform's own betting tab is 76/84 Arizona State by tickets and money, the crowd's side.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: ASU holds 83% of the spread money on 72% of the tickets; the Over holds 79% of the money on 84% of the tickets. The market-maker: ASU 38% of the dollars on 67% of the tickets; Over 8% of the dollars on 33% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +5.8, now +5.0 (home line) — best number: +5.5 on the platform (+100) and at Caesars · +5 at three Nevada books; total opened 53.0, now 50.5. Three rating systems (home line): +3.6 / +4.8 / +3.4 vs the market +5.5; projected totals 48.8 / 60.9 vs 50.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: ASU −5 ×2; Kansas 0.

🎯 KANSAS +5.5 (+100 on the platform; +5 at three Nevada books) — conviction 54. Three layers: the market-maker's dollars (SHARP +29), the public's tickets on the other side (CONTRARIAN), and a line that moved toward the dog anyway (RLM), with all three ratings inside the number. Argument against: Kansas is down a running back and a tight end, the injury tab was still moving three hours ago, and a wet Wembley favors the team with the better quarterback — Arizona State's. The reverse-line-move record on our sheet is 1-for-9; this leg does not rest on it. +5.5 at even money is the number.

Props — 2 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

WRASUWATCH

Omarion Miller

Miller O56.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−115

Projection vs line65.5 vs 56.5 — Arizona State games 102 and 29

Role · shareTarget leader · 25% share, 8.4 targets at 16.4 a catch · Probable (undisclosed)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 50 · 2025 64 (other program)

Opponent · lineKU 67th vs rec yds · line 54.5 open → 59.5

A quarter of the targets in a 55%-pass offense and a defense that is middling against receivers — 102 against Morgan State, 29 at Texas A&M, and the second number is the one that looks like Kansas. Probable, in London. Rated, not bet; the line has already climbed five.

Probable

RBKUNO PLAY

Yasin Willis

Willis O43.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5−114

Projection vs line45 vs 46.5 — Kansas games 72 and 18

Role · share22% of the carries behind the quarterback's 31%; Amachree OUT

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 78 (other program)

Opponent · lineASU 48th vs rush · line 44.5 → 46.5

The windows are Syracuse's; the Kansas median sits on the line. Amachree's absence is the only reason to look twice, and it is not enough. Declined.

Transfer mirage

Georgia @ Arkansas — SEC

12:00 PM ET · ABC

Venue

Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

88°F at kick warming to 93, clear, wind 11 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET) — heat is the only factor

Line

ARK +24.5 (+107) on our data platform · +24.5 everywhere (platform +107)

Total

54.5 · opened 53.6, Nevada 54.5/55

⚡ THE JUICE. Twenty-four and a half against a team whose head coach and coordinator are both new — the systems fade Arkansas twice — and the ratings say the number is right: Georgia by 24.2, 22.4 and 22.6. Both books are 80–87% Georgia by dollars and tickets. The total sits under two of the three projections (53.1 vs 54.5) and over the third (60.9). A 24.5-point spread is the blowout script, and the blowout script says the starters' unders are the props.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: UGA holds 87% of the spread money on 91% of the tickets; the Over holds 86% of the money on 89% of the tickets. The market-maker: UGA 80% of the dollars on 84% of the tickets; Over 97% of the dollars on 67% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +24.8, now +24.5 (home line) — best number: +24.5 everywhere (platform +107); total opened 53.6, now 54.5/55. Three rating systems (home line): +24.2 / +22.4 / +22.6 vs the market +24.5; projected totals 53.1 / 60.9 vs 54.5. Systems: new HC FADE Arkansas; new DC FADE Arkansas. The network's expert room: Arkansas +25.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on the side and total — the props are the play. Stockton U240.5 and Frazier U76.5 are both early-exit legs: Georgia throws 48% of the time, runs four backs, and has no reason to keep either on the field after halftime. Printed as one position — a Georgia blowout carries both.

Props — 3 panel-read, 2 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

QBUGAPLAY

Gunner Stockton

Stockton U240.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 8.0−114

Projection vs line213 vs 240.5 (−27.5)

Role · shareStarter, same program · 24.9 attempts, 48% pass offense

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100 · 2026 100 · 2025 79

Opponent · lineARK 68th vs pass yds · line 199.5 → 240.5 — two numbers posted all afternoon

Eight of ten under with a 213 median, and the number on the board is 240.5 — forty yards above the opener at 199.5, which the books have been toggling back and forth since 4:28 PM. A 24.5-point favorite that throws on 48% of snaps hands the fourth quarter to the run game; the early exit is the script. The dissent is the opener itself: if 199.5 is the real number and 240.5 is an alt, the cushion is thin — check the board before you bet it, and take 240.5 only.

Blowout script — early exitTwo lines posted — take 240.5 only

RBUGAPLAY

Nate Frazier

Frazier U76.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.5−114

Projection vs line72 vs 76.5 (−4.5) · 79.5 posted at times

Role · shareCommittee · 16.9% of the carries (Walker 18.6%, Peal 16.9%), 12.3 a game

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 100 · 2025 79

Opponent · lineARK 40th vs rush yds · line 79.5 ↔ 76.5

Georgia runs four backs at roughly equal shares — Walker, Frazier and Peal are within two carries of each other — and the line is set for a lead back. Seventy-two and fifty-five in the two games this year, a 24.5-point spread that empties the bench early, and a 40th-ranked Arkansas run defense that is fine, not bad. If the board shows 79.5 take it; 76.5 is the published number.

Four-back committeeBlowout carries go to the backupsGarbage-time long run is the risk

RBUGAWATCH

Chauncey Bowens

Bowens U34.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−102

Projection vs line21 vs 34.5 (−13.5)

Role · shareFifth back · 5.2 carries (14%)

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100 · 2026 100 · 2025 62

Opponent · lineARK 40th vs rush · line 33.5 → 37.5 → 34.5

Thirteen yards of cushion on a fifth back — and a fifth back is exactly who gets the fourth quarter of a 24-point blowout. The role that makes the under safe is the role that makes it dangerous. Rated, not bet.

Garbage-time back

Tulane @ Kansas State — non-conference

12:00 PM ET · ESPN2

Venue

Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

KSU -20.5 (−106) on our data platform · +20.5 everywhere (platform +105)

Total

49.5 · opened 49.5, Nevada 49.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The number moved a point toward Tulane this week while the market-maker's dollars are 99% Kansas State (on 91% of tickets — the book is heavy the same way) and the public book's dollars are 97% Kansas State on 66% of tickets, a +31 gap. Against that: all three ratings have Kansas State by 16–18, not 20.5, and the new-coordinator system fades the Wildcats. Money says the favorite; models say the dog by three.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: TULN holds 3% of the spread money on 34% of the tickets; the Over holds 100% of the money on 88% of the tickets. The market-maker: TULN 1% of the dollars on 9% of the tickets; Over 13% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -19.5, now -20.5 (home line) — best number: +20.5 everywhere (platform +105); total opened 49.5, now 49.5. Three rating systems (home line): -17.2 / -17.8 / -15.9 vs the market -20.5; projected totals 48.9 / 50.0 vs 49.5. Systems: new DC FADE Kansas State. The network's expert room: none counted.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Tulane +20.5 printed, not published. Ratings and a system against the sharpest dollar split on the early slate. When the cash and the models disagree this cleanly, the card's record says wait.

Props — 2 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

WRKSUWATCH

Jaron Tibbs

Tibbs O41.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−105

Projection vs line48 vs 41.5 (+6.5) · 39 and 9 this year

Role · shareThird target · 16.4% share (10 of 61), 7 targets a game last year

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40 · 2026 0 · 2025 75

Opponent · lineTULN 81st vs rec yds · line 42.5 → 41.5

Same program, real windows, a favorable rank — and zero for two this season with nine yards last week. A 20.5-point favorite in a 58%-run offense. Rated WATCH; the 2026 sample says wait.

0-for-2 in 2026

WRTULNNO PLAY

Destyn Hill

Hill U52.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.5+120

Projection vs line0 vs 52.5 — a median of zero

Role · share1.3 targets a game last year (4%); 67 and 91 this year

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 · 2026 0 · 2025 100

Opponent · lineKSU 1st vs rec yds · line 45.5 → 52.5

Eight of ten under because he did not play: the 2025 sample is six zeros. In 2026 he has 67 and 91. The cleanest mirage on the board — kill on sight.

Median of zero — mirage

North Texas @ Texas State — non-conference

12:00 PM ET · USA Network

Venue

UFCU Stadium · San Marcos, TX · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

TXST -2.5 (−114) on our data platform · −2.5 on the platform (−114) · −3 at all four Nevada books

Total

62.5 · opened 62.75, Nevada 62/63.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Three system layers on Texas State (Stability-A, a 0–6 fade of North Texas, a new-head-coach fade of North Texas) and the public book's dollars agree, 69% on 45% of tickets (+24). The ratings do not: a pick'em at 0.6/0.4/−0.5, which is three points of North Texas against a 3. The total is 62.5 with the public book 91% Over by dollars and the market-maker thin.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: UNT holds 31% of the spread money on 55% of the tickets; the Over holds 91% of the money on 63% of the tickets. The market-maker: UNT 39% of the dollars on 35% of the tickets; Over 0% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -3.1, now -3.0 (home line) — best number: −2.5 on the platform (−114) · −3 at all four Nevada books; total opened 62.75, now 62/63.5. Three rating systems (home line): -0.6 / -0.4 / +0.5 vs the market -2.5; projected totals 64.4 / 65.3 vs 62.5. Systems: Stability-A ON Texas State; Stability-B FADE North Texas; new HC FADE North Texas. The network's expert room: Texas State −3/ML ×3; North Texas 0.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Texas State −3 printed, not published. Systems and one book's money against three ratings that call it even. Texas State at −2.5 on the platform is the better number if you lean it.

Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin — non-conference

12:30 PM ET · Peacock

Venue

Camp Randall Stadium · Madison, WI · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

66°F, wind 10 mph with gusts to 26, rain 28% at kick easing to 22% (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

WIS -23.5 (−104) on our data platform · +23.5 everywhere (platform +103)

Total

44.5 · opened 46.25, Nevada 44.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Wisconsin by 20.4, 22.6 and 22.0 in the three ratings against a market at 23.5 — a point of Eastern Michigan and nothing else on the side. The total is the split: the public book's Under money is 87% on 17% of tickets (+70, the loudest number on the early slate); the market-maker's Over money is 84% on a 50/50 ticket split. Two books, two directions, both by dollars.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: EMU holds 23% of the spread money on 22% of the tickets; the Over holds 13% of the money on 83% of the tickets. The market-maker: EMU 95% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets; Over 84% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -24.5, now -23.5 (home line) — best number: +23.5 everywhere (platform +103); total opened 46.25, now 44.5. Three rating systems (home line): -20.4 / -22.6 / -22.0 vs the market -23.5; projected totals 46.6 / 47.9 vs 44.5. Systems: new DC FADE Eastern Michigan. The network's expert room: EMU +23.5/+24.5 ×2; Under ×2.

🎯 STAY AWAY on both — the prop is the play. Noah Kim's passing yards are the leg: a 60%-pass offense that will trail by three touchdowns, a line 86 yards under his median. The total's disagreement is printed and passed.

Props — 2 panel-read, 1 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

QBEMUPLAY

Noah Kim

Kim O133.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 7.5−114

Projection vs line219.5 vs 133.5 (+86) · 118 at Michigan State is the comp

Role · shareStarter, same program · 34.5 attempts, 60% pass offense

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 67 · 2025 100

Opponent · lineWIS 62nd vs pass yds (193.5 allowed) · line 118.5 open → 141.5 → 133.5

Thirteen of his last fourteen over 136.5 with a 224 average, in an offense that throws 60% of the time and will trail by three touchdowns — that is the volume script. The cushion is scored at 2.0, not 2.5, because the one Big Ten road game on the sheet (118 at Michigan State) is under the number, and the market is scored zero because the opener ran 15 yards toward us before it settled. Wisconsin's pass defense is middle-of-the-pack; the number is the edge, not the matchup.

Trailing script — 23.5-pt dog throwsOpener ran 15 our way — market 0MSU road comp 118

QBWISNO PLAY

Colton Joseph

Joseph O29.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0−110

Projection vs line18 vs 29.5 — Wisconsin games 3 and 33

Role · share25.8% of the carries (16 of 62) behind Sama's 37%

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 92 (other program)

Opponent · lineEMU 98th vs rush yds · line 31.5 → 29.5

The 92% season window was earned at Old Dominion. In Madison he ran for 3 against Notre Dame and 33 against Western Illinois; the median in this jersey is under the line. Declined.

Transfer mirage

NC State @ Vanderbilt — SEC/ACC non-conference

12:45 PM ET · SEC Network

Venue

FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

VAN -3.5 (+112) on our data platform · NC State +3.5 on the platform (−115) and at BetMGM · Vandy −3 at three Nevada books

Total

50.5 · opened 52.75, Nevada 50.5/51

⚡ THE JUICE. The books disagree on the side by dollars: the public book has 65% of the money on NC State (75% of tickets), the market-maker has 72% on Vanderbilt on 63% of tickets. The ratings lean Vanderbilt by 4.6, 5.9 and 3.1 against a 3–3.5 market. The total is the same story — 77% Over money at the public book, 97% Under money at the market-maker on 75% of tickets.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: NCST holds 65% of the spread money on 75% of the tickets; the Over holds 77% of the money on 84% of the tickets. The market-maker: NCST 28% of the dollars on 37% of the tickets; Over 3% of the dollars on 25% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -3.9, now -3.0 (home line) — best number: NC State +3.5 on the platform (−115) and at BetMGM · Vandy −3 at three Nevada books; total opened 52.75, now 50.5/51. Three rating systems (home line): -4.6 / -5.9 / -3.1 vs the market -3.5; projected totals 48.9 / 56.2 vs 50.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: NC State +4.5/+5.5 ×3; Vandy 0; Under 52.5 ×1, Over 50.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on both by rule. Sharp dollars on opposite sides of the spread and of the total. The room is three deep on NC State; the number moved toward NC State (4 → 3) with the public. Nothing to do here.

Props — 1 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

TEVANNO PLAY

Jayvontay Conner

Conner U42.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5−114

Projection vs line58.5 vs 42.5 — Vanderbilt games 30 and 87

Role · share12% share at another program; 87 last week

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 · 2026 50 · 2025 83 (other program)

Opponent · lineNCST 7th vs rec yds · line 33.5 → 44.5

The line has climbed eleven yards since Tuesday because he caught 87 last week — the market read the role change before the windows did. Declined.

Transfer mirage

Wyoming @ Central Michigan — non-conference

1:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Mount Pleasant, MI · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

CMU -1.5 (+108) on our data platform · market split — Wyoming −1 at three Nevada books, CMU −1.5 on the platform

Total

38.5 · opened 39.25, Nevada 38.5

⚡ THE JUICE. A market that cannot pick a favorite — Wyoming −1 at three Nevada books, Central Michigan −1.5 on the platform — and three ratings that split the same way (0.0, −1.5, +3.9). Total 38.5, the lowest on the board.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: WYO holds 28% of the spread money on 50% of the tickets; the Over holds 11% of the money on 81% of the tickets. The market-maker: WYO 98% of the dollars on 75% of the tickets; Over 0% of the dollars on 0% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +1.4, now +1.0 (home line) — best number: market split — Wyoming −1 at three Nevada books, CMU −1.5 on the platform; total opened 39.25, now 38.5. Three rating systems (home line): +0.0 / -1.5 / +3.9 vs the market -1.5; projected totals 39.2 / 42.4 vs 38.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: none.

🎯 STAY AWAY. No edge, no number, no reason.

Temple @ Toledo — non-conference

3:00 PM ET · CBSSN

Venue

Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

TOL -5.5 (−104) on our data platform · Temple +6 at all four Nevada books · platform +5.5 (+102)

Total

48.5 · opened 51.75, Nevada 48.5/49.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Four system layers on Temple (Stability-A on Temple; Toledo faded three times as a 0–6 team with a new head coach and coordinator) and the public book's money agrees, 66% Temple on 64% of tickets — the crowd's side. The market-maker's dollars are Toledo 62% on 57% of tickets, and all three ratings have Toledo by 7.1–7.8 against a 6. The line moved from 5 to 6 toward Toledo with the money.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: TEM holds 66% of the spread money on 64% of the tickets; the Over holds 21% of the money on 70% of the tickets. The market-maker: TEM 38% of the dollars on 43% of the tickets; Over 66% of the dollars on 33% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -5.2, now -6.0 (home line) — best number: Temple +6 at all four Nevada books · platform +5.5 (+102); total opened 51.75, now 48.5/49.5. Three rating systems (home line): -7.8 / -7.6 / -7.1 vs the market -5.5; projected totals 52.1 / 53.0 vs 48.5. Systems: Stability-A ON Temple; Stability-B FADE Toledo; new HC FADE Toledo; new DC FADE Toledo. The network's expert room: Temple +6/ML ×2; Toledo ML ×1; Under 51.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — printed as a systems-versus-ratings split. Four record-backed systems and the public on Temple; the market-maker and three ratings on Toledo. The total's sharp Under at the public book (79% money on 30% tickets) runs into a market-maker Over and ratings at 52–53; pass.

Kentucky @ Texas A&M — SEC

3:30 PM ET · ESPN

Venue

Kyle Field · College Station, TX · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

96°F at kick, clear, wind 4 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET) — the hottest kickoff on the board

Line

TXAM -16.5 (−108) on our data platform · A&M −16.5 on the platform (−108) and at Caesars · −17 at three Nevada books

Total

49.5 · opened 48.5, Nevada 49.5/50

⚡ THE JUICE. The matchup tab is a mismatch on paper: Kentucky converts 18.2% of third downs (134th) against a Texas A&M defense allowing 18.2% (8th); Kentucky averages 134 rushing yards (102nd) into a front allowing 76 (21st); A&M is third in takeaways. Kentucky is without its lead back (Mizell, season) and a tight end; A&M lists WR Bethel-Roman and RB Morrow Doubtful as of 9 PM Friday. The number has climbed from 15.5 to 17 at three Nevada books with the market-maker's dollars driving it — 84% A&M on 50% of tickets, +34 — while the public book's money is 65/74 A&M and the platform's tab is 79/81. All three ratings have A&M by 17.1–17.9. Two systems: A&M's 17+ returning starters (8-2 ATS the last two weeks), Kentucky's new head coach.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: UK holds 35% of the spread money on 26% of the tickets; the Over holds 90% of the money on 88% of the tickets. The market-maker: UK 16% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets; Over 100% of the dollars on 100% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -15.6, now -17.0 (home line) — best number: A&M −16.5 on the platform (−108) and at Caesars · −17 at three Nevada books; total opened 48.5, now 49.5/50. Three rating systems (home line): -17.9 / -17.4 / -17.1 vs the market -16.5; projected totals 54.6 / 52.9 vs 49.5. Systems: 17+ returning starters ON Texas A&M (116-89-2); new HC FADE Kentucky. The network's expert room: A&M −14.5/−16.5 ×3; Kentucky +17.5 ×1.

🎯 TEXAS A&M −16.5 (−108 on the platform; −16.5 at Caesars, −17 elsewhere) — conviction 56. The money layer (the market-maker's +34 dollar gap), the model layer (three ratings a point past the number) and two systems are on the same side, and the matchup tab explains why: Kentucky cannot stay on the field on third down against a defense that lives there. Argument against: a 16.5-point line in 96-degree heat is a fourth-quarter number, Morrow's absence thins A&M's backfield, and the room has one expert on Kentucky at +17.5. The −16.5 on the platform is a half-point better than the Nevada consensus.

Props — 1 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

RBTXAMNO PLAY

Rueben Owens II

Owens U77.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.0−115

Projection vs line49.5 vs 77.5 — but Morrow (RB2) is Doubtful

Role · share33.8% of the carries; Morrow's 20% moves to him if Morrow sits

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100 · 2026 100 · 2025 83

Opponent · lineUK 58th vs rush · main line toggling 39.5 ↔ 64.5; 77.5 is an alt

A teammate's injury tag is the player's tag: with Morrow Doubtful the volume moves to Owens and the under is declined by rule, even at a number this far above his median. The board is also toggling the main line between 39.5 and 64.5 — 77.5 is an alt. Declined twice.

Partner Doubtful — under declinedAlt line

Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati — non-conference

3:30 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

TQL Stadium · Cincinnati, OH · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

CIN -14.5 (−102) on our data platform · Miami (OH) +15.5 at all four Nevada books · platform +14.5 (+100)

Total

49.5 · opened 49.75, Nevada 49.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Both books are Cincinnati by dollars (75% and 74%) and the line moved from 14.5 to 15.5 with them. The three ratings have Cincinnati by 11.0, 11.7 and 11.7 — three and a half to four points of Miami — and two systems fade Cincinnati (a 0–6 stability score, a new coordinator). Model and systems against money and movement.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: M-OH holds 25% of the spread money on 27% of the tickets; the Over holds 34% of the money on 79% of the tickets. The market-maker: M-OH 26% of the dollars on 36% of the tickets; Over 76% of the dollars on 75% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -14.4, now -15.5 (home line) — best number: Miami (OH) +15.5 at all four Nevada books · platform +14.5 (+100); total opened 49.75, now 49.5. Three rating systems (home line): -11.0 / -11.7 / -11.7 vs the market -14.5; projected totals 50.8 / 53.6 vs 49.5. Systems: Stability-B FADE Cincinnati; new DC FADE Cincinnati. The network's expert room: none counted.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Miami (OH) +15.5 printed at the Nevada number, not published. A ratings edge and two systems without a money layer is the shape that lost us the Lions leg on Thursday. The public book's Under money (66% on 21% of tickets) runs into the market-maker's Over (76/75); pass the total.

USC @ Rutgers — Big Ten

3:30 PM ET · CBS

Venue

SHI Stadium · Piscataway, NJ · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

RUTG +21.5 (−104) on our data platform · USC −21.5 on the platform (+102) and at BetMGM · Rutgers +22 at two Nevada books

Total

57.5 · opened 58.2, Nevada 57.5/58

⚡ THE JUICE. The number has come down from −24.5/−25 to −21.5/−22 with 87% of the public book's tickets on USC — that is reverse line movement toward Rutgers, and the market-maker's dollars lean the same way (37% Rutgers on 29% of tickets, +8). Against that, the three ratings all have USC by 23.4–24.7 and the 17+-returning-starters system is on USC. The total: the market-maker's Under money is 76% on 56% of tickets; the ratings project 59.5–60.2.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: USC holds 65% of the spread money on 87% of the tickets; the Over holds 73% of the money on 74% of the tickets. The market-maker: USC 63% of the dollars on 71% of the tickets; Over 24% of the dollars on 44% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +24.5, now +22.0 (home line) — best number: USC −21.5 on the platform (+102) and at BetMGM · Rutgers +22 at two Nevada books; total opened 58.2, now 57.5/58. Three rating systems (home line): +23.4 / +24.7 / +24.4 vs the market +21.5; projected totals 59.5 / 60.2 vs 57.5. Systems: 17+ returning starters ON USC. The network's expert room: USC −21.5 ×1; Over 58.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on both. Money and movement on Rutgers, models and a system on USC, and a total the market-maker's cash and the ratings disagree on. The room has one on USC and one on the Over.

Props: Rutgers receiver unders (Black, Duff, Hines, Simms) — depth pieces and a game the Knights will throw in; Thevenin O28.5 rush — no role read.

SMU @ Louisville — ACC

3:30 PM ET · ESPN2

Venue

L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

LOU -1.5 (−104) on our data platform · Louisville −1.5 at three Nevada books and the platform (−104) · SMU +2 at the market-maker

Total

58.5 · opened 59.9, Nevada 58.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The money is Louisville at both books — 64% on 48% of tickets at the public book (+16), 76% on 53% at the market-maker (+23) — and the room is seven deep on the Cardinals. The ratings call the number fair: Louisville by 2.2, 1.9 and 0.7 against a 1.5–2 market. The total's money is Over at both books (91/87 and 67/58); the ratings project 56.4 against 58.5.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: SMU holds 36% of the spread money on 52% of the tickets; the Over holds 91% of the money on 87% of the tickets. The market-maker: SMU 24% of the dollars on 47% of the tickets; Over 67% of the dollars on 58% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -1.6, now -1.6 (home line) — best number: Louisville −1.5 at three Nevada books and the platform (−104) · SMU +2 at the market-maker; total opened 59.9, now 58.5. Three rating systems (home line): -2.2 / -1.9 / -0.7 vs the market -1.5; projected totals 56.4 / 56.4 vs 58.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: Louisville −1.5/ML ×7; SMU +1.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Louisville −1.5 printed as a money-only lean. Two books' sharp dollars and no model support is one layer, and Thursday's ledger row says one layer does not publish. The total's Over is the public's side at both books with the ratings two points under it — no.

Props — 2 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

RBSMUNO PLAY

Kendrick Raphael

Raphael O43.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5−110

Projection vs line39 vs 43.5 — SMU games 75 and 3

Role · shareCommittee · 27% of the carries behind Green's 31%

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 77 (other program)

Opponent · lineLOU 66th vs rush · line 54.5 open → 43.5

Ten of eleven over 43.5 at NC State; 75 and 3 at SMU in a committee. The book cut eleven yards off the opener and the panel still doesn't clear it. Declined.

Transfer mirage

WRLOUNO PLAY

TreyShun Hurry

Hurry U37.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0−110

Projection vs line11.5 vs 37.5 — an 8%-share median

Role · share2.4 targets (8%) in 2025; 67 against Ole Miss this year

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 100

Opponent · lineSMU 32nd vs rec yds · line 44.5 → 37.5

A 37.5 line on a player whose 2025 median was 11.5 means the books see a bigger role — and 67 against Ole Miss says they are right. A backup sample priced against a starter's line is a role trap in both directions. Declined.

Role trap

Florida State @ Alabama — SEC

3:30 PM ET · ABC

Venue

Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa, AL · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

ALA -19.5 (+100) on our data platform · +19.5 everywhere (platform +100)

Total

49.5 · opened 50.4, Nevada 49.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The market-maker's dollars are 73% Florida State on 16% of tickets — a +57 gap, the largest on the board — while the public book is 84/83 Alabama. The three ratings are on the number: Alabama by 19.6, 19.5 and 18.6. No system fires. The line has not moved. The total has the public book's Under money at 77/92 (Under 23% money on 8% tickets, +15) and the market-maker thin.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: FSU holds 16% of the spread money on 17% of the tickets; the Over holds 77% of the money on 92% of the tickets. The market-maker: FSU 73% of the dollars on 16% of the tickets; Over 100% of the dollars on 75% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -19.2, now -19.5 (home line) — best number: +19.5 everywhere (platform +100); total opened 50.4, now 49.5. Three rating systems (home line): -19.6 / -19.5 / -18.6 vs the market -19.5; projected totals 46.6 / 51.3 vs 49.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: Alabama −19.5/−20.5 ×3; FSU +19.5 ×1; Under 48.5 ×1; Alabama TT Over ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Florida State +19.5 printed as the sharpest dollar split on the board, not published. One money layer, ratings that call it fair, a line that has not moved with the money. If the number gets to 20 it is a different conversation.

Props — 1 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

RBFSUNO PLAY

Ousmane Kromah

Kromah U61.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.5−114

Projection vs line115.5 vs 61.5 — this year's starter, last year's backup

Role · share44% of the carries in 2026; 8 a game (22%) in 2025

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 · 2026 0 · 2025 92

Opponent · lineALA 3rd vs rush yds (32.5 allowed) · line 54.5 → 61.5

Eight of ten under with a 25 median — as a freshman backup. He has 115 and 116 in two starts. The 3rd-ranked Alabama run defense is the reason this looks like a bet; the role change is the reason it isn't. Declined.

Backup sample vs starter role

Stanford @ Duke — ACC

4:00 PM ET · CW

Venue

Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

DUKE -9.5 (−108) on our data platform · Stanford +10 at all four Nevada books · platform +9.5 (+104)

Total

50.5 · opened 50.6, Nevada 50.5/51

⚡ THE JUICE. The public book's money is Stanford, 60% on 29% of tickets (+31, CONTRARIAN against 71% Duke tickets); the market-maker is Stanford 75/68. Against the money: three ratings at Duke by 11.3–14.0 versus a 10, and two systems fading Stanford (new head coach, new coordinator). The total's public-book Under is 66% money on 26% tickets (+40); the ratings say 49.9–50.8 against 50.5, neutral.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: STAN holds 60% of the spread money on 29% of the tickets; the Over holds 34% of the money on 74% of the tickets. The market-maker: STAN 75% of the dollars on 68% of the tickets; Over 100% of the dollars on 100% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -9.6, now -10.0 (home line) — best number: Stanford +10 at all four Nevada books · platform +9.5 (+104); total opened 50.6, now 50.5/51. Three rating systems (home line): -14.0 / -11.3 / -13.8 vs the market -9.5; projected totals 49.9 / 50.8 vs 50.5. Systems: new HC FADE Stanford; new DC FADE Stanford. The network's expert room: Stanford +10/+10.5 ×2; Duke 0.

🎯 STAY AWAY — printed as money-versus-model. Sharp dollars on Stanford, ratings and systems on Duke. The Under 50.5 has one money layer and a neutral model; not enough.

Props: Sheppard U24.5 att (Duke's RB2 sample priced as the RB1 line), Ford U69.5 rush (no role read).

Louisiana Tech @ Baylor — non-conference

4:00 PM ET · ESPNU

Venue

McLane Stadium · Waco, TX · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

96°F, clear, wind 7 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

BAY -19.5 (−102) on our data platform · Louisiana Tech +20 at three Nevada books · platform +19.5 (+101)

Total

49.5 · opened 54.25, Nevada 49/49.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Both starting quarterbacks are out: Baylor's DJ Lagway (ankle) is Doubtful and did not play last week either — Nate Bennett starts a second straight game after 314 yards and three scores against Prairie View — and Louisiana Tech's Blake Baker has a fractured throwing hand, so backup Trey Kukuk starts. Baylor is also without WR Taz Williams. The number has moved from 17.5–18 at the open to 20 at three Nevada books with 67% of the public book's tickets on Baylor — reverse line movement toward Tech — and the market-maker's dollars lean Tech, 59% on 60% of tickets. The three ratings have Baylor by 16.9, 12.9 and 17.8 against a 19.5–20 market: three and a half points of Tech, with the injuries already built into the hand-tuned system. One system fades Baylor's new coordinator. The matchup tab is the dissent: Louisiana Tech ranks 116th rushing, 128th in sacks allowed and 122nd in first downs, into a Baylor front that is 6th in sacks and 7th in tackles for loss.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: LT holds 17% of the spread money on 33% of the tickets; the Over holds 19% of the money on 60% of the tickets. The market-maker: LT 59% of the dollars on 60% of the tickets; Over 19% of the dollars on 44% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -17.8, now -20.0 (home line) — best number: Louisiana Tech +20 at three Nevada books · platform +19.5 (+101); total opened 54.25, now 49/49.5. Three rating systems (home line): -16.9 / -12.9 / -17.8 vs the market -19.5; projected totals 54.0 / 57.1 vs 49.5. Systems: new DC FADE Baylor. The network's expert room: LT +18.5 ×1; Baylor −18.5/−20.5 ×2; Under ×2.

🎯 LOUISIANA TECH +19.5 (+101 on the platform; +20 at three Nevada books) — conviction 53. Money (the market-maker's lean and the reverse move), model (three ratings, 3.5 points) and a system agree; the conviction is the low end of the band because the quarterback who earned those ratings is out and the backup's job is to hand off behind a line that gives up three and a half sacks a game. The total is a stay-away: the public book's Under money is 81% on 40% of tickets and the market-maker's 81% on 56% — two sharp Unders — but the ratings project 54–57 and the books just took the number from 54 to 49.5. That disagreement is printed.

Props — 1 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

QBLTNO PLAY

Trey Kukuk

Kukuk U157.5 pass + rush yds★★★☆☆ 5.5−119

Projection vs line89 vs 157.5 — the backup's number, and he starts now

Role · shareBaker OUT (hand fracture) — Kukuk starts; 7.8 attempts a game last year

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40 · 2026 100 · 2025 64

Opponent · lineBAY 26th vs pass + rush · line posted after the Baker news

Every window belongs to a backup who is now the starter in a game his team trails by three touchdowns. The line was set knowing that. Declined on the role rule, and the under is the wrong direction for a 20-point dog's quarterback anyway.

Backup sample — role 0Baker OUT

Ball State @ Liberty — non-conference

4:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Williams Stadium · Lynchburg, VA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

LIB -14.5 (+108) on our data platform · −14.5 everywhere (platform +108 — the best price on the favorite)

Total

48.5 · opened 53.6, Nevada 48.5/49.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The public book's money is Liberty 81% on 55% of tickets (+26); the market-maker is a coin flip. The ratings lean Liberty by 15.1, 14.5 and 17.4 — a point past the 14.5. The total is the split: the public book's Under money is 99% on 42% of tickets, the market-maker's 79% on 67%, and the ratings project 51.4–54.1, over the 48.5.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: BALL holds 19% of the spread money on 45% of the tickets; the Over holds 1% of the money on 58% of the tickets. The market-maker: BALL 49% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets; Over 21% of the dollars on 33% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -14.5, now -14.5 (home line) — best number: −14.5 everywhere (platform +108 — the best price on the favorite); total opened 53.6, now 48.5/49.5. Three rating systems (home line): -15.1 / -14.5 / -17.4 vs the market -14.5; projected totals 51.4 / 54.1 vs 48.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: none.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Liberty −14.5 (+108 on the platform) printed, not published. One book's dollars and a one-point ratings edge. The total's two sharp Unders against two ratings Overs is a disagreement, not a lean.

Mississippi State @ South Carolina — SEC

4:15 PM ET · SEC Network

Venue

Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia, SC · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

92°F, clear, wind 6 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

SCAR -3.5 (−106) on our data platform · South Carolina −3.5 on the platform (−106) · −4 at all four Nevada books

Total

58.5 · opened 58.6, Nevada 58.5/59

⚡ THE JUICE. Both offenses have been playing air: Mississippi State's 50 points, 298 rushing yards and 8.4 yards a play (6th) came against a .250 schedule; South Carolina's 4.5 points allowed (1st) and 3.2 yards a play (9th) came against a .200 schedule. The market has moved from 3.5 to 4 toward Mississippi State with the public book's money (76% on 66% of tickets); the market-maker's dollars lean South Carolina, 53% on 65% of tickets, and the three ratings have the Gamecocks by 7.2, 4.0 and 7.0 — two and a half points past the number. South Carolina lost backup QB Lucian Anderson; kicker Sanchez is Questionable (not injury-related). The total is where the cash is loudest: the public book's Under money is 58% on 16% of tickets (+42), the market-maker's 99% on 75% (+24); the platform's own tab is Under 70% money on 22% tickets. The ratings project 58.1–59.3 against 58.5 — neutral.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: MSST holds 76% of the spread money on 66% of the tickets; the Over holds 42% of the money on 84% of the tickets. The market-maker: MSST 47% of the dollars on 35% of the tickets; Over 1% of the dollars on 25% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -3.5, now -4.0 (home line) — best number: South Carolina −3.5 on the platform (−106) · −4 at all four Nevada books; total opened 58.6, now 58.5/59. Three rating systems (home line): -7.2 / -4.0 / -7.0 vs the market -3.5; projected totals 59.3 / 58.1 vs 58.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: South Carolina −3.5/−4 ×3; Miss State 0; MSST TT Over ×1.

🎯 UNDER 58.5 (+108 on the platform) — conviction 53. South Carolina −3.5 (−106) printed, not published. The Under has two books' sharp dollars and the platform's tab, and a model that calls the number fair — two money layers and a neutral model is thinner than Thursday's ledger wants, which is why 53 and not 56. The side has a two-and-a-half-point ratings edge and the market-maker's lean, but the line moved against it with the public money on Mississippi State; −3.5 on the platform is the better number if the cash comes back.

Props — 1 panel-read, 1 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

RBMSSTPLAY

Fluff Bothwell

Bothwell U69.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.5−114

Projection vs line48 vs 69.5 (−21.5) · 72.5 posted at times

Role · shareLead back, same program · 32.9% of the carries (27 of 82), 12.2 a game

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 50 · 2025 67

Opponent · lineSCAR 10th vs rush yds (60.5 allowed) · line 58.5 open → 69.5/72.5

Fifty-two and 113 this year against Louisiana-Monroe and Minnesota; against SEC defenses last year he went 60, 0, 25, 44, 25, 80, 38 — one game over 70 in seven. The books have raised this line eleven yards since Wednesday chasing the Minnesota game, which is the market scored 1.0: a number moving against a panel this consistent is the value. The dissent is that South Carolina's 10th-ranked run defense was built against a .200 schedule, so the opponent is scored 1.0, not 1.5.

SEC-game median 38Line raised 11 vs the panelSC ranks built on a soft schedule

FIU @ Florida Atlantic — non-conference

6:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Flagler Credit Union Stadium · Boca Raton, FL · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

FAU -6.5 (−100) on our data platform · FIU +6.5 on the platform (+101) and two Nevada books · FAU −6 at the market-maker

Total

62.5 · opened 62.5, Nevada 62.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The number moved from 7–7.5 to 6–6.5 toward FIU; the market-maker's dollars are FIU 70% on 55%, the public book's are FAU 61/57. Ratings: FAU by 5.6–6.6, on the number. Stability-A is on Florida Atlantic. The total's money disagrees by book — public Over 97% on 60%, market-maker Under 76% on 50%.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: FIU holds 39% of the spread money on 43% of the tickets; the Over holds 97% of the money on 60% of the tickets. The market-maker: FIU 70% of the dollars on 55% of the tickets; Over 24% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -7.2, now -6.3 (home line) — best number: FIU +6.5 on the platform (+101) and two Nevada books · FAU −6 at the market-maker; total opened 62.5, now 62.5. Three rating systems (home line): -5.6 / -6.6 / -6.4 vs the market -6.5; projected totals 57.7 / 58.3 vs 62.5. Systems: Stability-A ON Florida Atlantic. The network's expert room: FIU +7.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on both — books disagree on the side and the total.

Charlotte @ App State — non-conference

6:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Kidd Brewer Stadium · Boone, NC · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

75°F cooling to 70, rain 16–20%, wind 3–6 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

APP -17.5 (+106) on our data platform · Charlotte +17.5 on the platform (−105), Boomers and Caesars · +17 at the market-maker

Total

52.5 · opened 51.4, Nevada 52.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The number opened 19.5–21 and sits at 17–17.5 — a three-and-a-half-point move toward Charlotte with 74% of the public book's tickets on App State, the cleanest reverse line move on the board — and the money at both books is Charlotte: 66% of the public book's dollars on 26% of tickets (+40), 63% of the market-maker's on 45% (+18). The platform's own tab shows 73% of the money on Charlotte with 63% of tickets on App. The three ratings have App by 16.3–17.0, a point of Charlotte. Stability-A lists Charlotte (the chart docked Charlotte four points for the Harrell injury; it still qualifies on the season guide's list, printed as-is). Charlotte is 5-0 against the number in its last five road games; App State's 41 points a game came against a .200 schedule. TE Laskey (CHAR) and RB Burnette (APP) are Questionable.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: CHAR holds 66% of the spread money on 26% of the tickets; the Over holds 10% of the money on 89% of the tickets. The market-maker: CHAR 63% of the dollars on 45% of the tickets; Over 34% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -19.6, now -17.2 (home line) — best number: Charlotte +17.5 on the platform (−105), Boomers and Caesars · +17 at the market-maker; total opened 51.4, now 52.5. Three rating systems (home line): -16.7 / -17.0 / -16.3 vs the market -17.5; projected totals 51.1 / 56.7 vs 52.5. Systems: Stability-A ON Charlotte (the season guide's Week-3 list; Charlotte lost 4 stability points to the Harrell injury). The network's expert room: Charlotte +19.5 ×1.

🎯 CHARLOTTE +17.5 (−105 on the platform; +17.5 at two Nevada books, +17 at the market-maker) — conviction 55. UNDER 52.5 (+102) — conviction 52. The side is ALIGNED: sharp dollars at both books, the public on the other side, the line moving toward the dog, a rating edge and a system. Argument against: the move is spent — three and a half points of it — and a Charlotte offense averaging 25 has to keep pace with a team that scores 41. The Under has the loudest dollar gap on the board (98% of the platform's money, +79 at the public book) and a split model (51.1 under, 56.7 over); it is the third Under on this card and the correlation is printed in the ledger — a Charlotte cover and an Under are one game script.

East Carolina @ Old Dominion — non-conference

6:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

S.B. Ballard Stadium · Norfolk, VA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

ODU -2.5 (−111) on our data platform · ECU +3 at all four Nevada books · ODU −2.5 on the platform

Total

49.5 · opened 49.25, Nevada 48.5/49

⚡ THE JUICE. Sharp dollars on opposite sides: the public book has 89% of the money on East Carolina (47% of tickets, +42); the market-maker has 80% on Old Dominion (50% of tickets, +30). The ratings lean East Carolina (ODU by 0.1–2.0 against a 3); two systems fade East Carolina (0–6 score, new coordinator).

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: ECU holds 89% of the spread money on 47% of the tickets; the Over holds 49% of the money on 74% of the tickets. The market-maker: ECU 20% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets; Over 50% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -2.8, now -3.0 (home line) — best number: ECU +3 at all four Nevada books · ODU −2.5 on the platform; total opened 49.25, now 48.5/49. Three rating systems (home line): -0.1 / -0.5 / -2.0 vs the market -2.5; projected totals 51.8 / 53.8 vs 49.5. Systems: Stability-B FADE East Carolina; new DC FADE East Carolina. The network's expert room: ECU −6.5 ×1; Under 49.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY by rule — the two books' sharp money is on opposite teams.

Marshall @ Missouri State — non-conference

6:30 PM ET · CBSSN

Venue

Robert W. Plaster Stadium · Springfield, MO · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

MOSU +3.5 (+102) on our data platform · Marshall −3.5 on the platform (−104) and at BetMGM · −4 at three Nevada books

Total

52.5 · opened 51.6, Nevada 53/53.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Three systems on Marshall (Stability-A; Missouri State is a 0–6 fade with a new head coach); the public book's money is Marshall 70/57; the market-maker's dollars lean Missouri State 55% on 43%. Ratings: Marshall by 1.8–2.5 against a 3.5–4 market — a point and a half of Missouri State.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: MRSH holds 70% of the spread money on 57% of the tickets; the Over holds 92% of the money on 78% of the tickets. The market-maker: MRSH 45% of the dollars on 57% of the tickets; Over 37% of the dollars on 67% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +3.9, now +3.9 (home line) — best number: Marshall −3.5 on the platform (−104) and at BetMGM · −4 at three Nevada books; total opened 51.6, now 53/53.5. Three rating systems (home line): +2.2 / +1.8 / +2.5 vs the market +3.5; projected totals 54.6 / 52.7 vs 52.5. Systems: Stability-A ON Marshall; Stability-B FADE Missouri State; new HC FADE Missouri State. The network's expert room: Over 52.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — the books disagree on the side by dollars. The Over 52.5 has the public book's money (92%) and a ratings lean (52.7–54.6) but the market-maker's Under; pass.

Nevada @ Middle Tennessee — non-conference

7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

MTU +3.5 (+106) on our data platform · Nevada −3.5 everywhere (platform −108); the number has already moved 2.5 toward MTSU

Total

49.5 · opened 49.9, Nevada 50/50.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The number has collapsed from Nevada −6/−6.5 to −3.5 with 80% of the market-maker's tickets on Nevada — reverse line movement toward Middle Tennessee — and the dollars at both books are on the Blue Raiders (94% on 57% at the public book; 84% on 20% at the market-maker, +64). The three ratings say Nevada by 2.5–8.1, an average of six against a 3.5. Two money layers and a reverse move against a model that likes the favorite by a field goal more than the market.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: NEV holds 6% of the spread money on 43% of the tickets; the Over holds 90% of the money on 90% of the tickets. The market-maker: NEV 16% of the dollars on 80% of the tickets; Over 100% of the dollars on 100% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +5.5, now +3.5 (home line) — best number: Nevada −3.5 everywhere (platform −108); the number has already moved 2.5 toward MTSU; total opened 49.9, now 50/50.5. Three rating systems (home line): +7.3 / +2.5 / +8.1 vs the market +3.5; projected totals 50.6 / 53.1 vs 49.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: Nevada +3.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — printed as the loudest money-versus-model conflict on the card. The reverse-line-move record on this sheet is 1-for-9; the ratings edge is real; neither is enough alone.

Florida @ Auburn — SEC

7:00 PM ET · ESPN

Venue

Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn, AL · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

92°F at kick cooling to 81, rain 12–14%, gusts to 22 late (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

AUB +2.5 (−105) on our data platform · Auburn +2.5 on the platform (−105) and at Caesars · +2 at three Nevada books

Total

52.5 · opened 53.4, Nevada 52.5/53.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Florida is the third-highest-scoring team in the country (59 a game, 8.8 a play) and allows 252 passing yards (116th); Auburn's defense allows 76.5 rushing yards (22nd) and its quarterback, Byrum Brown, takes 37% of his own team's carries. Florida lists WR Eric Singleton Questionable (ankle) and WR Groce out; Auburn TE Herring is Questionable. The line has moved from 3 to 2 at three Nevada books toward Auburn with 80% of the market-maker's tickets on Florida — reverse line movement — and the market-maker's dollars are Auburn 59% on 20% of tickets (+39, the second-largest gap on the board). The public book is Florida 62/71. The three ratings have Florida by 1.6–2.4: on the number at 2, slightly Auburn at 2.5. The new-coordinator system fades Florida. The total: Under money at both books (89/70 and 95/67 — tickets too, so not contrarian); ratings split 49.8 / 55.7.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: FLA holds 62% of the spread money on 71% of the tickets; the Over holds 11% of the money on 30% of the tickets. The market-maker: FLA 41% of the dollars on 80% of the tickets; Over 5% of the dollars on 33% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +2.4, now +2.1 (home line) — best number: Auburn +2.5 on the platform (−105) and at Caesars · +2 at three Nevada books; total opened 53.4, now 52.5/53.5. Three rating systems (home line): +2.4 / +2.3 / +1.6 vs the market +2.5; projected totals 49.8 / 55.7 vs 52.5. Systems: new DC FADE Florida. The network's expert room: Florida −2.5/ML ×2; Auburn +2.5 ×2.

🎯 AUBURN +2.5 (−105 on the platform; +2.5 at Caesars, +2 at the market-maker) — conviction 55. Sharp dollars against a heavy public ticket count, a line moving toward the dog, a system, and ratings that call +2.5 the right side of fair. Argument against: Florida has scored 118 points in two games and the model total that matters (55.7) says this is a shootout Auburn has to win with a quarterback who runs 16 times a game in 92 degrees. The Under 52.5 is the public's side at both books and the ratings split it — printed, not published.

Props — 3 panel-read, 2 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

QBAUBPLAY

Byrum Brown

Brown O275.5 pass + rush yds★★★★☆ 7.5−114

Projection vs line298.5 vs 275.5 (+23) — Auburn games only

Role · shareStarter · 37% of the team's carries himself; 42% pass / 58% run

Hit windowsL10 100 · L5 100 · 2026 100 (2 games) · 2025 83 — the 2025 games are another program's, discounted

Opponent · lineFLA 77th vs pass yds, 41st vs rush · line 267.5 open → 287.5 → 275.5

Two games in the new jersey, 286 and 311, and the 10-of-10 window behind them was earned somewhere else — so the windows score a single point and the cushion is computed from Auburn games only: 23 yards. The mechanism is the bet: a quarterback who takes 37% of his own team's carries against a Florida defense allowing 252 passing yards a game (116th), in a game his side has to score 30 to win. The line has bounced between 275.5 and 287.5 all night; 275.5 is the number.

Exceed-side: Florida 116th vs passTransfer — windows capped at 1.0One position with Singleton O3.5

QBAUBWATCH

Byrum Brown

Brown O54.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−115

Projection vs line57.5 vs 54.5 — Auburn games 27 and 88

Role · share16.2 carries a game (37%), 6.7 a carry — last year's number

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 75 (other program)

Opponent · lineFLA 41st vs rush · line 44.5 open → 54.5

Nine of ten over 54.5 and 100 a game — at USF. In two Auburn games he ran for 27 and 88, and the books took the opener from 44.5 to 54.5 anyway. The pass-plus-rush leg carries this player; a second ticket on the same legs is one position twice. Rated, not bet.

Same player as the P+R leg

WRAUBPLAY

Keshaun Singleton

Singleton O3.5 receptions★★★☆☆ 6.0−114

Projection vs line5 vs 3.5 (+1.5) — Auburn games 7 and 3

Role · shareAuburn's target leader · 23.5% share (16 of 68 targets), 6.6 targets a game

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 50 · 2025 62 (other program)

Opponent · lineFLA 134th vs receptions allowed (27.5 a game) · line 3.5 flat

The opponent rank is the whole leg: Florida allows 27.5 completions a game, 134th of 136, and this is the receiver who gets 23.5% of Auburn's targets. Seven catches against Baylor, three against Southern Miss — the second one is the argument against, and it is why this is three stars in a 46%-pass offense, not four.

Florida 134th vs receptionsAuburn throws 46% — volume risk

UConn @ Southern Miss — non-conference

7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

M.M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

94°F at kick cooling to 86, clear, wind 6–7 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

USM +3.5 (−115) on our data platform · UConn −3 at all four Nevada books · −3.5 (+110) on the platform

Total

54.5 · opened 54.4, Nevada 54.5/55

⚡ THE JUICE. Southern Miss allows 223.5 rushing yards a game (132nd), 5.8 a play (111th) and converts opponents on 41% of third downs (101st); UConn averages 7.0 a play (27th). UConn's QB Jake Merklinger carries a Questionable tag for the second straight week (Osborne has taken the snaps); WR Flash Wilson is Questionable; Southern Miss RB Briggs is Questionable. The money is UConn at both books — 98% of the public book's dollars on 78% of tickets (+20), 69% on 64% at the market-maker — and the platform's tab is 100% of the money on 86% of tickets. The ratings have UConn by 2.2, 6.0 and 7.3 against a 3 — two points of UConn on average. No system fires.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: CONN holds 98% of the spread money on 78% of the tickets; the Over holds 51% of the money on 77% of the tickets. The market-maker: CONN 69% of the dollars on 64% of the tickets; Over 50% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +3.2, now +3.0 (home line) — best number: UConn −3 at all four Nevada books · −3.5 (+110) on the platform; total opened 54.4, now 54.5/55. Three rating systems (home line): +7.3 / +2.2 / +6.0 vs the market +3.5; projected totals 52.2 / 54.4 vs 54.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: none.

🎯 UCONN −3 (−3 at all four Nevada books; −3.5 at +110 on the platform is a fair alternative) — conviction 54. Money at both books, a model edge of two, and a matchup tab that says the Huskies' ground game meets a defense that cannot stop one. Argument against: the tickets are with us (78%), so this is the public's side; the quarterback tag is a real one; and the UConn dollar share at the public book is so lopsided (98%) it reads like one account. The 3 is the number — do not lay 3.5 at −115.

Georgia State @ UCF — non-conference

7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Acrisure Bounce House · Orlando, FL · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

UCF -17.5 (+105) on our data platform · Georgia State +17.5 on the platform (−105), Boomers, Caesars · +17 at the market-maker

Total

50.5 · opened 50.5, Nevada 49.5/50

⚡ THE JUICE. The line moved three points toward Georgia State (20.5 → 17.5) and the market-maker's dollars are 91% Georgia State on a 50/50 ticket split; the public book is a 37/37 split. The ratings have UCF by 18.8–20.9 — two and a half points of UCF — and the new-coordinator system fades Georgia State. The total: the public book's Under money is 93% on 19% of tickets (+74); the market-maker's Over is 76% on 86%.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: GAST holds 37% of the spread money on 37% of the tickets; the Over holds 7% of the money on 81% of the tickets. The market-maker: GAST 91% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets; Over 76% of the dollars on 86% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -20.5, now -17.2 (home line) — best number: Georgia State +17.5 on the platform (−105), Boomers, Caesars · +17 at the market-maker; total opened 50.5, now 49.5/50. Three rating systems (home line): -18.8 / -20.9 / -20.5 vs the market -17.5; projected totals 51.4 / 55.1 vs 50.5. Systems: new DC FADE Georgia State. The network's expert room: Georgia State +20.5 ×1; Over 50.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on both. Money and movement on the dog, models and a system on the favorite, a total the books disagree on. Printed.

Ohio @ South Alabama — non-conference

7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile, AL · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

USA -6.5 (−108) on our data platform · South Alabama −6.5 on the platform (−108) and at Caesars · −7 at three Nevada books

Total

49.5 · opened 52.6, Nevada 48.5/49

⚡ THE JUICE. Four systems on South Alabama (Stability-A on the Jaguars; Ohio faded as a 0–6 team with a new head coach and coordinator) and the money at both books agrees — 96% of the public book's dollars on 73% of tickets (+23), 61% on 77% at the market-maker — and the line has moved from 3.5–4.5 at the open to 7 with it. The three ratings have South Alabama by 3.6–4.8 against a 6.5–7 market: two and a half points of Ohio. The total's Under money is 100% on 27% of tickets at the public book and 87% on 50% at the market-maker; the ratings project 51.1–52.1, over the 49.5.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: OHIO holds 4% of the spread money on 27% of the tickets; the Over holds 0% of the money on 73% of the tickets. The market-maker: OHIO 39% of the dollars on 23% of the tickets; Over 13% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -4.8, now -6.9 (home line) — best number: South Alabama −6.5 on the platform (−108) and at Caesars · −7 at three Nevada books; total opened 52.6, now 48.5/49. Three rating systems (home line): -4.8 / -3.6 / -4.3 vs the market -6.5; projected totals 51.1 / 52.1 vs 49.5. Systems: Stability-A ON South Alabama; Stability-B FADE Ohio; new HC FADE Ohio; new DC FADE Ohio. The network's expert room: Under 49.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — South Alabama −6.5 printed as a systems-and-money lean the ratings refuse. Three layers on one side and the model two and a half points the other way, on a number that has already moved three. The total is two sharp Unders against two ratings Overs; pass.

Western Michigan @ Rice — non-conference

7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Rice Stadium · Houston, TX · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

RICE +8.5 (+101) on our data platform · Rice +9.5 at Boomers/Caesars · +9 at the market-maker · platform +8.5 (+101)

Total

43.5 · opened 45.4, Nevada 43/43.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Reverse line movement toward Rice (11.5 → 9/9.5) with 69% of the public book's tickets on Western Michigan, and the dollars at both books are Rice (46% on 31% tickets, +15; 80% on 64%, +16). The three ratings have Western Michigan by 10.8–11.5 — two and a half points the other way. The total: two sharp Unders (72% on 11% tickets; 82% on 67%) against ratings Overs (45.6–49.2 vs 43.5).

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: WMU holds 54% of the spread money on 69% of the tickets; the Over holds 28% of the money on 89% of the tickets. The market-maker: WMU 20% of the dollars on 36% of the tickets; Over 18% of the dollars on 33% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +11.6, now +9.2 (home line) — best number: Rice +9.5 at Boomers/Caesars · +9 at the market-maker · platform +8.5 (+101); total opened 45.4, now 43/43.5. Three rating systems (home line): +11.5 / +10.8 / +11.5 vs the market +8.5; projected totals 45.6 / 49.2 vs 43.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: Rice +8.5/+9.5/+11.5 ×3; WMU 0.

🎯 STAY AWAY on both — money on Rice, model on Western Michigan; the total is a disagreement. The room is three deep on Rice.

Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State — non-conference

7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville, AL · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

JVST -3.5 (+109) on our data platform · Georgia Southern +3.5 on the platform (−113) and at BetMGM · +3 at three Nevada books

Total

52.5 · opened 52.5, Nevada 52.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Sharp dollars on Georgia Southern at both books — 90% on 42% of tickets at the public book (+48, CONTRARIAN against 58% Jacksonville State tickets), 84% on 67% at the market-maker — with the ratings on the number (Jacksonville State by 2.8–4.2 against a 3–3.5) and the new-coordinator system fading Georgia Southern.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: GASO holds 90% of the spread money on 42% of the tickets; the Over holds 4% of the money on 75% of the tickets. The market-maker: GASO 84% of the dollars on 67% of the tickets; Over 100% of the dollars on 100% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -3.4, now -3.1 (home line) — best number: Georgia Southern +3.5 on the platform (−113) and at BetMGM · +3 at three Nevada books; total opened 52.5, now 52.5. Three rating systems (home line): -3.7 / -4.2 / -2.8 vs the market -3.5; projected totals 53.3 / 54.5 vs 52.5. Systems: new DC FADE Georgia Southern. The network's expert room: Georgia Southern +4.5 ×1; Jax State −3.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Georgia Southern +3.5 printed as a money-only lean. Two books' cash and nothing else; the model calls it fair and the one system points the other way.

New Mexico @ Oklahoma — non-conference

7:30 PM ET · ESPN2

Venue

Memorial Stadium · Norman, OK · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

96°F at kick cooling to 90, clear, wind 12 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

OKLA -21.5 (+104) on our data platform · +21.5 everywhere (platform −108)

Total

45.5 · opened 48.4, Nevada 45/45.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The number has come down from 23.5 to 21.5 with the money at both books on New Mexico (60/63 public; 95% of the market-maker's dollars on 71% of tickets) — the line followed the money, so this is not a reverse move. The three ratings have Oklahoma by 23.2–24.9, two and a half points the other way. The total is the most one-sided number on the board: 100% of the public book's Over money on 98% of tickets, and the ratings project 46.8–48.0 over the 45.5. Everyone is on the Over.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: UNM holds 60% of the spread money on 63% of the tickets; the Over holds 100% of the money on 98% of the tickets. The market-maker: UNM 95% of the dollars on 71% of the tickets; Over 45% of the dollars on 40% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -22.8, now -21.5 (home line) — best number: +21.5 everywhere (platform −108); total opened 48.4, now 45/45.5. Three rating systems (home line): -23.2 / -24.9 / -24.2 vs the market -21.5; projected totals 46.8 / 48.0 vs 45.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: New Mexico +21.5/+22.5 ×3; Oklahoma −22 ×1; Under ×2.

🎯 STAY AWAY on the side and total — Avant's under is the play. Money and movement on the dog against three ratings on the favorite; a total with no contrarian value at all. The room has three on New Mexico and two Unders.

Props — 1 panel-read, 1 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

RBOKLAPLAY

Lloyd Avant

Avant U66.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.5−114

Projection vs line57 vs 66.5 (−9.5) — Oklahoma games 79 and 35 · 69.5 posted at times

Role · shareOklahoma's lead back · 35.3% of the carries (24 of 68), 12 a game; Mateer takes 23.5% himself

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 83 (other program)

Opponent · lineUNM 15th vs rush yds (68.5 allowed) · line 66.5 open → 70.5 → 69.5

A 21.5-point favorite whose quarterback takes a quarter of the carries and whose lead back has 24 in two games: the volume ceiling is the leg. New Mexico ranks 15th against the run through two games, the line has drifted three yards toward us, and 79 in the opener against UTEP is the argument against — it is why the windows score half a point (they belong to another program) and this is three stars.

UNM 15th vs rushQB takes 23% of carriesTransfer windows — 0.5

West Virginia @ Virginia — Duke's Mayo Classic (neutral site)

7:30 PM ET · ACC Network

Venue

Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC · Outdoors (neutral)

Weather at kickoff

76°F, clear, wind 2–4 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET) — a still night

Line

UVA -10.5 (−104) on our data platform · Virginia −10.5 on the platform (−104) and three Nevada books · −11 at the market-maker

Total

53.5 · opened 54.25, Nevada 53/53.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Virginia's defense through two games: 5.5 points allowed (4th), 3.2 a play (9th), 33% red-zone (3rd), 65.5 rushing yards allowed (13th) — against a .400 schedule, which is not nothing. West Virginia runs for 298 a game (9th) and throws for 170 (111th), so the game is the Mountaineers' ground game into that front. West Virginia lost RB Chris Talley (hamstring); RB Devine and WR Strachan are Questionable. Virginia is without RB Beebe (suspension); WR Flores and TE Ungar are Questionable. The number has moved from 8–10 at the open to 10.5–11 with 76% of the market-maker's tickets on West Virginia — reverse line movement toward the favorite — and the market-maker's dollars are 91% Virginia on 24% of tickets, a +67 gap, the loudest on the board; the public book's dollars lean Virginia too, 53% on 40% (+13). The platform's tab: 88% of the money on Virginia with 63% of tickets on West Virginia. The three ratings split — Virginia by 7.7 and 5.0, and 14.9 in the statistical system — an average of 9.2, a point of West Virginia. The room is six deep on West Virginia, zero on Virginia.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: WVU holds 47% of the spread money on 60% of the tickets; the Over holds 61% of the money on 75% of the tickets. The market-maker: WVU 9% of the dollars on 76% of the tickets; Over 3% of the dollars on 33% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -9.2, now -10.6 (home line) — best number: Virginia −10.5 on the platform (−104) and three Nevada books · −11 at the market-maker; total opened 54.25, now 53/53.5. Three rating systems (home line): -7.7 / -14.9 / -5.0 vs the market -10.5; projected totals 52.4 / 51.9 vs 53.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: WVU +10.5/ML ×6; Virginia 0.

🎯 VIRGINIA −10.5 (−104 on the platform; −10.5 at three Nevada books, −11 at the market-maker) — conviction 55. Sharp dollars at both books against a heavy West Virginia ticket count, a line that moved toward the favorite anyway, the statistical rating four points past the number. Argument against: the hand-tuned rating and the bettors' rating have this at 5–8, a room full of experts on the dog, and a neutral site takes Charlottesville out of the equation. This is the money layer's game — printed as such.

Props — 2 panel-read, 1 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

WRUVAPLAY

Da'Shawn Martin

Martin O22.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5−105

Projection vs line37 vs 22.5 (+14.5) — Virginia games 47 and 27

Role · share4.1 targets a game (17% share) at 19.6 a catch; Virginia has thrown 37 passes in two games (28% pass rate)

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 100 · 2026 100 · 2025 73 (other program)

Opponent · lineWVU 123rd vs receiving yards (271.5 allowed) · line 22.5 → 19.5 → 22.5

Seven straight games over 22.5 and a West Virginia defense allowing 271 receiving yards a game — the number is a chunk-play number and he is a 19.6-a-catch receiver. The dissent is the offense he plays in: Virginia has thrown 37 times all season and is a 10.5-point favorite that will run when it leads. Two catches clear it; that is the bet.

WVU 123rd vs rec ydsVirginia throws 28% of snaps

RBUVANO PLAY

Jekail Middlebrook

Middlebrook O67.5 rush + rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0−115

Projection vs line42 vs 67.5 — Virginia games 64 and 20

Role · share12.5 carries (43%) and 4.5 targets in 2025 — at another program

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 · 2026 0 · 2025 91 (other program)

Opponent · lineWVU 123rd vs rec yds, 51st vs rush · line 73.5 open → 67.5

Eleven of twelve over 49.5 with a 98-yard average is a James Madison number. In Virginia's two games he has 64 and 20, both under 67.5, and the books have dropped the line six yards since Wednesday chasing the same thing. A transfer priced off last year's usage — declined on sight.

Transfer mirage — 2026 median 42

Colorado @ Northwestern — Big Ten

7:30 PM ET · FOX

Venue

Martin Stadium · Evanston, IL · Outdoors, on the lake

Weather at kickoff

70°F, rain 32% rising to 46%, wind light with gusts to 15 (forecast 1:07 AM ET) — showers possible

Line

NW -3.5 (+100) on our data platform · −3.5 everywhere (platform +100 either side)

Total

48.5 · opened 47.6, Nevada 47.5/48.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Sharp dollars on Colorado at both books — 92% on 61% of tickets at the public book (+31), 59% on 29% at the market-maker (+30, CONTRARIAN against 71% Northwestern tickets) — against three ratings that all have Northwestern by 5.0–5.2 (a point and a half past the 3.5) and a system fading Colorado's new coordinator. The total: two sharp Unders (85% on 28%; 83% on 71%) against ratings at 50.7–52.5 over the 48.5. Northwestern allows 285 receiving yards a game (129th).

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: COLO holds 92% of the spread money on 61% of the tickets; the Over holds 15% of the money on 72% of the tickets. The market-maker: COLO 59% of the dollars on 29% of the tickets; Over 17% of the dollars on 29% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -3.4, now -3.5 (home line) — best number: −3.5 everywhere (platform +100 either side); total opened 47.6, now 47.5/48.5. Three rating systems (home line): -5.2 / -5.1 / -5.0 vs the market -3.5; projected totals 50.7 / 52.5 vs 48.5. Systems: new DC FADE Colorado. The network's expert room: Northwestern −3/−3.5 ×2; Colorado 0; Over 47.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on both — money versus model on the side, money versus model on the total. Moore's over is the play. The room has two on Northwestern.

Props — 1 panel-read, 1 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

WRCOLOPLAY

DeAndre Moore Jr.

Moore O45.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0−108

Projection vs line72 vs 45.5 (+26) — Colorado games 37 and 107

Role · shareColorado's target leader · 25.4% share (15 of 59), 5.2 targets at 15.9 a catch

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 50 · 2025 64 (other program)

Opponent · lineNW 129th vs receiving yards (285 allowed) · line 37.5 open → 45.5

Northwestern is allowing 285 receiving yards a game, 129th of 136, and this is the receiver Colorado targets a quarter of the time. The 107 came against an FCS opponent and the 37 against Georgia Tech — the honest cushion is the smaller of those two games, which is why it scores 1.5, and the windows are last year's Texas usage, capped at one. The line has climbed eight yards since Wednesday and the panel still clears it.

NW 129th vs rec yds25% target shareOne FCS game in the sample

Virginia Tech @ Maryland — non-conference

7:30 PM ET · FS1

Venue

SECU Stadium · College Park, MD · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

77°F, clear, wind 5–9 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

MD +2.5 (+106) on our data platform · Maryland +3 at all four Nevada books · platform +2.5 (+106)

Total

53.5 · opened 53.25, Nevada 53.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Five system lines land on this game and four of them point at Maryland: Stability-A is on Maryland; Virginia Tech is faded three times (new head coach, new coordinator, a 0–6 score) and backed once (17+ returning starters). The public book's dollars are Maryland, 49% on 21% of tickets (+28, CONTRARIAN against 79% Tech tickets); the market-maker is 98% Virginia Tech by dollars on 85% of tickets — a split by book, but the market-maker's number is tickets-and-dollars together, not a sharp signal. The three ratings have Virginia Tech by 1.7, 0.5 and 5.0 against a 3: fair to a point of Maryland. The room is five on Tech, two on Maryland. Maryland's QB threw for 347 last week; Tech's defense allows 137 passing yards a game (22nd).

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: VT holds 51% of the spread money on 79% of the tickets; the Over holds 69% of the money on 76% of the tickets. The market-maker: VT 98% of the dollars on 85% of the tickets; Over 52% of the dollars on 57% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +3.1, now +3.0 (home line) — best number: Maryland +3 at all four Nevada books · platform +2.5 (+106); total opened 53.25, now 53.5. Three rating systems (home line): +1.7 / +0.5 / +5.0 vs the market +2.5; projected totals 54.7 / 58.6 vs 53.5. Systems: 17+ returning starters ON Virginia Tech; new HC FADE Virginia Tech; new DC FADE Virginia Tech; Stability-B FADE Virginia Tech; Stability-A ON Maryland. The network's expert room: Virginia Tech −2.5/−3/ML ×5; Maryland +2.5/+3 ×2; Over 51.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Maryland +3 printed as a systems-and-one-book lean, not published. Four system layers and the public book's contrarian dollars against the market-maker's 98% on Tech. The by-book disagreement is the rule that decides it. The Washington under is the leg here.

Props — 2 panel-read, 1 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

QBMDPLAY

Malik Washington

Washington U267.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 8.0−114

Projection vs line228.5 vs 267.5 (−39) · 347 last week is the dissent

Role · shareStarter, same program · 41.1 attempts, 52% pass, 24.6 completions

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 · 2026 50 · 2025 92

Opponent · lineVT 22nd vs pass yds (137 allowed) · line 271.5 → 267.5/273.5

Eight of ten under with a 228 median against the 22nd-ranked pass defense — and the one game that beat this number was last Saturday, 347 against UConn, which is why the cushion is scored 1.5 and not 2.5 and why this is four stars, not five. He throws 41 times a game, so the volume is real; the yards per attempt (5.6 last year) are the reason the volume does not become 268. Take 273.5 if the board shows it.

VT 22nd vs pass yds347 last weekWe lost his under last week — printed

WRMDNO PLAY

Chris Durr Jr.

Durr U65.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0−115

Projection vs line73.5 vs 65.5 — Maryland games 44 and 103

Role · share17% share, 6.2 targets — at another program

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 82 (other program)

Opponent · lineVT 22nd vs rec yds · line 57.5 → 65.5

The 35.5 median is a Mountain West number; in College Park he has 44 and 103 and the book has raised the line eight yards. Declined.

Transfer mirage

BYU @ Colorado State — non-conference

7:30 PM ET · CBS

Venue

Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

CSU +17.5 (−101) on our data platform · Colorado State +18 at the market-maker · +17.5 elsewhere (platform −101)

Total

52.5 · opened 52.4, Nevada 52.5/53.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Reverse line movement toward Colorado State (21 → 17.5/18) with 72% of the public book's tickets on BYU, and the dollars at both books on the Rams: 71% on 28% (+43) and 93% on 80%. The three ratings have BYU by 16.4–21.1 (average 18.7), a point of BYU; the systems net to BYU (Stability-A on BYU; the Rams faded twice; BYU faded once for a new coordinator). The room is four deep on Colorado State.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: BYU holds 29% of the spread money on 72% of the tickets; the Over holds 99% of the money on 90% of the tickets. The market-maker: BYU 7% of the dollars on 20% of the tickets; Over 58% of the dollars on 80% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +19.4, now +17.6 (home line) — best number: Colorado State +18 at the market-maker · +17.5 elsewhere (platform −101); total opened 52.4, now 52.5/53.5. Three rating systems (home line): +21.1 / +16.4 / +18.5 vs the market +17.5; projected totals 49.9 / 51.2 vs 52.5. Systems: Stability-A ON BYU; new DC FADE BYU; new HC FADE Colorado State; Stability-B FADE Colorado State. The network's expert room: Colorado State +17.5/+18/+19.5 ×4; BYU 0.

🎯 STAY AWAY — money and a reverse move on the dog, model and systems on the favorite. The total's Under has the market-maker's dollars (42% on 20% tickets) and two ratings under 52.5; the public book is 99% Over. Pass.

LSU @ Ole Miss — SEC

7:30 PM ET · ABC

Venue

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Oxford, MS · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

97°F at kick cooling to 90, clear, wind 4 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

MISS +2.5 (+112) on our data platform · Ole Miss +3 at all four Nevada books · platform +2.5 (+112) / LSU −2.5 (−115)

Total

58.5 · opened 58.9, Nevada 58.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The market-maker's dollars are LSU, 71% on 42% of tickets (+29, CONTRARIAN against 58% Ole Miss tickets); the public book is LSU 53/60. The three ratings call it a pick'em — Ole Miss by 0.1, LSU by 1.3 and 1.0 — which is two points of Ole Miss against a 3. The room is split five and five. The total's money is Over at both books (61/64; 75/73) and the ratings project 57.5–58.6 against 58.5.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: LSU holds 53% of the spread money on 60% of the tickets; the Over holds 61% of the money on 64% of the tickets. The market-maker: LSU 71% of the dollars on 42% of the tickets; Over 75% of the dollars on 73% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +2.8, now +3.0 (home line) — best number: Ole Miss +3 at all four Nevada books · platform +2.5 (+112) / LSU −2.5 (−115); total opened 58.9, now 58.5. Three rating systems (home line): -0.1 / +1.3 / +1.0 vs the market +2.5; projected totals 57.5 / 58.6 vs 58.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: LSU −3/ML ×5; Ole Miss +3/−1.5 ×5; Over ×5, Under/TT-under ×4.

🎯 STAY AWAY on the side and total. Sharp dollars on LSU, ratings two points toward Ole Miss, a room that cannot decide. Lacy's under is the leg.

Props — 2 panel-read, 1 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

WRLSUWATCH

Jackson Harris

Harris O24.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−114

Projection vs line56 vs 24.5 (+31) — LSU games 32 and 80

Role · share7 targets in two games (9.2% share, fourth on the team) at 23.2 a catch

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 100 · 2026 100 · 2025 73 (other program)

Opponent · lineMISS 107th vs rec yds (243 allowed) · line 32.5 open → 24.5

Nine straight over 24.5 and a defense allowing 243 receiving yards — and a 9% target share, which is the reason it stops at WATCH. He is a one-catch-clears-it deep threat, and one catch is exactly the kind of prop that lives on variance. The books cut the line eight yards toward us; that is the market agreeing, not a mistake.

9% share — below the role floorMISS 107th vs rec yds

RBMISSPLAY

Kewan Lacy

Lacy U17.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.5−115

Projection vs line9.5 vs 17.5 (−8)

Role · shareLead back, same program · 2.5 targets a game (6% share) at 6.2 a catch

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 80

Opponent · lineLSU 12th vs receiving yards (124 allowed) · line 15.5 open → 17.5

A lead back who is not a receiver: 1.8 catches on 2.5 targets for under ten yards a game, against the 12th-ranked receiving-yards defense, with the line two yards higher than it opened. This is a reflex under and it is printed as one — the exceed-side reason is that Ole Miss throws to Lacy on checkdowns only, and LSU's front is the one that makes checkdowns die at the catch point. Nineteen last week is the argument against.

LSU 12th vs rec ydsReflex under — one screen pass beats it

UAB @ Louisiana — non-conference

8:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Venue

Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium · Lafayette, LA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

87°F, clear, wind 5–6 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

ULL -7.5 (+104) on our data platform · Louisiana −7.5 (+104) on the platform — plus money on the favorite · −8 at the market-maker

Total

55.5 · opened 56.75, Nevada 55.5/56

⚡ THE JUICE. Louisiana is without three pass-catchers — WR Chaney (shoulder), WR Sampson (knee), TE Jensen — and its defense allows opponents to convert 64% of third downs, 138th and last. UAB throws for 167 a game (116th) but runs for 230 (26th) and converts 59% of its own third downs (11th); four UAB skill players carry Questionable tags. The number has come down from 9.25 at the open to 7.5–8 with 73% of the public book's tickets on Louisiana — reverse line movement toward UAB — while the public book's dollars are 88% Louisiana (+15) and the market-maker is a 50/50 split. The three ratings have Louisiana by 8.8, 9.6 and 12.5 against a 7.5–8: two and three-quarter points of the Cajuns. Two systems on Louisiana (Stability-A; UAB's new coordinator). Louisiana's schedule strength ranks 9th, UAB's 115th.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: UAB holds 12% of the spread money on 27% of the tickets; the Over holds 64% of the money on 78% of the tickets. The market-maker: UAB 50% of the dollars on 55% of the tickets; Over 33% of the dollars on 25% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -9.2, now -7.6 (home line) — best number: Louisiana −7.5 (+104) on the platform — plus money on the favorite · −8 at the market-maker; total opened 56.75, now 55.5/56. Three rating systems (home line): -12.5 / -9.6 / -8.8 vs the market -7.5; projected totals 56.9 / 58.8 vs 55.5. Systems: Stability-A ON Louisiana; new DC FADE UAB. The network's expert room: UAB +7.5/+9.5 ×2; UAB TT Over ×1.

🎯 LOUISIANA −7.5 (+104 on the platform — plus money on the favorite; −8 at the market-maker) — conviction 54. Three ratings, two systems and the public book's dollars, on a number that moved against all of them. Argument against, and it cut the conviction two points: three of Louisiana's pass-catchers are out, which is why the total (Over by the ratings at 56.9–58.8) is not published, and the market-maker's cash is not on our side. +104 on −7.5 is the value; do not lay 8.

Arkansas State @ TCU — non-conference

8:00 PM ET · ESPNU

Venue

Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

TCU -18.5 (−108) on our data platform · Arkansas State +19 at three Nevada books · platform +18.5 (+104)

Total

55.5 · opened 57.1, Nevada 55.5/56.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The public book's dollars are 91% Arkansas State on 20% of tickets — a +71 gap, CONTRARIAN against 80% TCU tickets — and the market-maker is 50/50. The line moved a point and a half toward TCU with the tickets. The three ratings have TCU by 17.2–21.1, on the number. No system fires.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: ARST holds 91% of the spread money on 20% of the tickets; the Over holds 58% of the money on 41% of the tickets. The market-maker: ARST 50% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets; Over 24% of the dollars on 38% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -20.2, now -18.9 (home line) — best number: Arkansas State +19 at three Nevada books · platform +18.5 (+104); total opened 57.1, now 55.5/56.5. Three rating systems (home line): -18.1 / -17.2 / -21.1 vs the market -18.5; projected totals 56.0 / 57.5 vs 55.5. Systems: none fire. The network's expert room: Arkansas State +20.5 ×1; Under 57.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Arkansas State +18.5 printed as a one-book money lean. The market moved against the sharp money; the model is fair.

James Madison @ San Diego State — non-conference

10:00 PM ET · CW

Venue

Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

70°F, clear, wind 3–5 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

SDSU -1.5 (−104) on our data platform · −1.5 everywhere (platform −104) · JMU +1.5 (+102)

Total

46.5 · opened 46.6, Nevada 46.5

⚡ THE JUICE. James Madison scores 53.5 a game (7th) at 7.8 a play; San Diego State has thrown for 202 yards in two games combined and allows 154.5 rushing yards (104th). JMU's QB JC Evans carries a Questionable tag (left wrist — the non-throwing hand); WR Belfort and RB Cromwell are Questionable. The public book's money is JMU 64/63 and the platform's tab is 95% of the money on JMU; the market-maker's dollars are San Diego State, 68% on 58% of tickets (+10, SHARP by the threshold). Three systems on the Aztecs (Stability-A; JMU faded as a 0–6 team with a new head coach). The three ratings: San Diego State by 0.2 and 1.8, JMU by 3.3 — an average of pick'em against a 1.5. The room has two on San Diego State.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: JMU holds 64% of the spread money on 63% of the tickets; the Over holds 24% of the money on 70% of the tickets. The market-maker: JMU 32% of the dollars on 42% of the tickets; Over 43% of the dollars on 50% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -1.2, now -1.5 (home line) — best number: −1.5 everywhere (platform −104) · JMU +1.5 (+102); total opened 46.6, now 46.5. Three rating systems (home line): +0.2 / -3.3 / +1.8 vs the market -1.5; projected totals 50.6 / 42.9 vs 46.5. Systems: Stability-A ON San Diego State; Stability-B FADE James Madison; new HC FADE James Madison. The network's expert room: SDSU −1.5 ×2; JMU 0.

🎯 SAN DIEGO STATE −1.5 (−104 on the platform) — conviction 53. The market-maker's dollars, three system layers and a model that calls it even: one money layer, one system layer, a neutral model. Argument against, and it is why this is the card's lowest side: JMU has been the better team by every 2026 number, the statistical rating has the Dukes by three, and the money at the public book and the platform is on the other side. The Under 46.5 has the public book's sharp dollars (76% on 30%) and a split model (50.6 / 42.9) — printed, not published.

North Dakota State @ Sacramento State — non-conference

10:30 PM ET · ESPN

Venue

Hornet Stadium · Sacramento, CA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

83°F cooling to 78, clear, wind 8 mph with gusts to 17 (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

SAC +26.5 (+105) on our data platform · Sacramento State +27 at all four Nevada books · platform +26.5 (+105)

Total

50.5 · opened 52.6, Nevada 50.5

⚡ THE JUICE. The number is North Dakota State by 26.5–27.5 and every rating disagrees: the Bison by 19.2, 22.9 and 19.8 — six points of Sacramento State, the largest ratings edge on the card. The money agrees with the models at both books: 50% of the public book's dollars on Sacramento State on 11% of tickets (+39), 58% of the market-maker's on 8% (+50), both CONTRARIAN against 89–92% Bison tickets. Against it, four system layers on North Dakota State (Stability-A; Sacramento State faded three times — 0–6 score, new head coach, new coordinator), and Sacramento State's injury tab carries eight Questionable tags including QB Carson Conklin (wrist). The line has moved a half-point toward Sac State.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: NDSU holds 50% of the spread money on 89% of the tickets; the Over holds 17% of the money on 79% of the tickets. The market-maker: NDSU 42% of the dollars on 92% of the tickets; Over 29% of the dollars on 33% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +27.8, now +27.0 (home line) — best number: Sacramento State +27 at all four Nevada books · platform +26.5 (+105); total opened 52.6, now 50.5. Three rating systems (home line): +19.2 / +22.9 / +19.8 vs the market +26.5; projected totals 52.8 / 52.1 vs 50.5. Systems: Stability-A ON North Dakota State; Stability-B FADE Sacramento State; new HC FADE Sacramento State; new DC FADE Sacramento State. The network's expert room: NDSU −27.5 ×1; Under 53.5 ×1.

🎯 SACRAMENTO STATE +26.5 (+105 on the platform; +27 at all four Nevada books) — conviction 53. Two books' sharp dollars and a six-point model edge against four systems and a quarterback with a wrist tag — the conviction sits at the bottom of the band because of the tag, and the leg comes off if Conklin is scratched. Argument against: the stability chart says Sacramento State is the least stable program on the board, and 27-point dogs with a backup quarterback lose by 40. +27 at −110 in Nevada is the better number.

Purdue @ UCLA — Big Ten

11:00 PM ET · BTN

Venue

Rose Bowl · Pasadena, CA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not pulled — no lean

Line

UCLA -14.5 (+113) on our data platform · Purdue +14.5 on the platform (−115) · +14 at all four Nevada books

Total

52.5 · opened 52.5, Nevada 52.5/53

⚡ THE JUICE. The market-maker's dollars are UCLA 65% on 35% of tickets (+30, CONTRARIAN against 65% Purdue tickets); the public book's are Purdue 59/76. The three ratings have UCLA by 10.1–13.3 against a 14: two and a half points of Purdue. Systems split — 17+ returning starters on UCLA, a new-head-coach fade of UCLA. The total's money is Over at both books (91/74; 97/88).

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: PUR holds 59% of the spread money on 76% of the tickets; the Over holds 91% of the money on 74% of the tickets. The market-maker: PUR 35% of the dollars on 65% of the tickets; Over 97% of the dollars on 88% of the tickets. Tracker: opened -14.6, now -14.0 (home line) — best number: Purdue +14.5 on the platform (−115) · +14 at all four Nevada books; total opened 52.5, now 52.5/53. Three rating systems (home line): -13.3 / -11.0 / -10.1 vs the market -14.5; projected totals 52.5 / 56.3 vs 52.5. Systems: 17+ returning starters ON UCLA; new HC FADE UCLA. The network's expert room: Purdue +14 ×1; UCLA −12.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY — sharp dollars on UCLA, ratings on Purdue, systems split.

Props — 1 panel-read, 0 on the cardplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET

RBUCLANO PLAY

Wayne Knight

Knight O86.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5+103

Projection vs line84 vs 86.5 — UCLA games 71 and 97

Role · share29% of the carries; Iamaleava takes 31% himself

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · 2026 50 · 2025 79 (other program)

Opponent · linePUR 77th vs rush · line 83.5 → 86.5

The 110-yard average is James Madison's. At UCLA the median is 84 and the line is 86.5. Declined.

Transfer mirage

Fresno State @ San José State — Mountain West

11:00 PM ET · FS1

Venue

CEFCU Stadium · San Jose, CA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

64°F, clear, wind 5 mph (forecast 1:07 AM ET)

Line

SJSU +6.5 (−107) on our data platform · Fresno −6.5 (+105) on the platform — plus money on the favorite · −6.5 at all four Nevada books

Total

49.5 · opened 50.9, Nevada 49.5

⚡ THE JUICE. San José State allows 254.7 passing yards (117th), 27.7 points (106th) and converts opponents on 43% of third downs (107th); Fresno State's offense is not much — 24.5 points, 116 rushing yards (115th) — but it is 4-1 against the number in its last five as a favorite. The money is Fresno at both books: 66% of the public book's dollars on 44% of tickets (+22, CONTRARIAN against 56% Spartans tickets), 56% of the market-maker's on 38% (+18); the platform's tab has 91% of the money on Fresno with 55% of tickets. The three ratings have Fresno by 6.4, 9.4 and 9.4 (average 8.4) against a 6.5 — two points of Fresno. Two systems (Stability-A on Fresno; San José State's new coordinator). The total's money is Under at both books — 99% on 54% at the public book (+45), 82% on 87% at the market-maker — and the ratings split it, 52.2 and 47.3 around 49.5.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: FRES holds 66% of the spread money on 44% of the tickets; the Over holds 1% of the money on 46% of the tickets. The market-maker: FRES 56% of the dollars on 38% of the tickets; Over 18% of the dollars on 13% of the tickets. Tracker: opened +6.9, now +6.5 (home line) — best number: Fresno −6.5 (+105) on the platform — plus money on the favorite · −6.5 at all four Nevada books; total opened 50.9, now 49.5. Three rating systems (home line): +9.4 / +6.4 / +9.4 vs the market +6.5; projected totals 52.2 / 47.3 vs 49.5. Systems: Stability-A ON Fresno State; new DC FADE San Jose State. The network's expert room: Fresno −6.5 ×1.

🎯 FRESNO STATE −6.5 (+105 on the platform — plus money on the favorite; −6.5 at all four Nevada books) — conviction 57, the card's top side. UNDER 49.5 (−103) — conviction 52. The side is ALIGNED: sharp dollars at both books, the public's tickets on the other side, two points of ratings, two systems, and plus money on a number the Nevada books hold at −110. Argument against: Fresno's offense has not scored 30 in a game this year and San José State's is the better unit on paper; a 6.5 has to be won with defense. The Under is the third same-direction total on the card — sized as one position with the other two, and printed that way.

The 25-and-up block — sides are noise, the props are the play

ten games

Kent State @ Ohio State (12:00 PM ET) — OSU −52.5 · 59.5: ratings −50.9/−55.0/−51.9 — on the number. Buffalo @ Penn State (12:00 PM ET) — PSU −40.5 · 49.5: ratings −38.2/−39.2/−38.2 — two points of Buffalo, noise at this size. UTEP @ Michigan (3:30 PM ET) — MICH −34.5 · 48.5: ratings −36.4/−36.4/−37.0 — Michigan; the market-maker's dollars 98% UTEP on 57% tix, a three-fade-system team. Utah State @ Utah (3:30 PM ET) — UTAH −27.5 · 56.5: ratings −28.3/−30.5/−30.9 — Utah; three systems fade Utah (new HC, new DC, 0–6 score). Western Kentucky @ Indiana (4:00 PM ET) — IND −44.5 · 60.5: ratings −42.1/−46.3/−45.0 — on the number. Troy @ Missouri (7:00 PM ET) — MIZZ −27.5 · 50.5: ratings −24.3/−24.4/−24.3 — three points of Troy; the public book's dollars 63% Troy on 14% tix. Michigan State @ Notre Dame (7:30 PM ET) — ND −29.5 · 51.5: ratings −27.9/−29.1/−26.8; four system layers on Notre Dame (17+ starters, Stability-A; MSU new-HC and 0–6 fades) — the sides are noise at 30, printed only. Kennesaw State @ Tennessee (7:45 PM ET) — TENN −35.5 · 59.5: ratings −34.0/−33.2/−35.2 — on the number. UTSA @ Texas (8:00 PM ET) — TEX −29.5 · 58.5: ratings −30.2/−24.9/−30.3 — split; 30-point threshold. Northern Illinois @ Arizona (10:30 PM ET) — ARIZ −33.5 · 50.5: ratings −29.7/−29.6/−30.1 — three to four points of NIU, noise at this size. Props read here: McCuin O3.5 receptions — NO PLAY; Hansen O15.5 rush att — NO PLAY; Dampier O23.5 pass att — NO PLAY; Roberts U19 rush att — NO PLAY. Aneyas Williams (ND) U16.5 att / U88.5 rush — 2025 RB2 sample priced as the RB1 line, declined unseen; Bryce Underwood U249.5 pass + rush (MICH, 2026 100%) — screened, not paneled, not a leg; Kromah, Hill, Roberts, Kukuk — see their tiles.

Not carried on our data platform — one line each

seventeen FCS visitors

Mercer @ Georgia Tech (12:00 PM ET) — GT −39.5 · 59.5: ratings say GT by 16–24 — the number is 15+ past every rating; not carried, not bet. Maine @ Boston College (2:00 PM ET) — BC −38.5 · 54.5: ratings −29.7/−31.8/−30.4 — eight points of Maine on a number we don't bet. Southern Illinois @ Illinois (2:00 PM ET) — ILL −38.5 · 55.5: ratings −31.5/−27.8/−32.4 — Illinois off Duke; not carried. Wagner @ California (3:30 PM ET) — CAL −58.5 · 65.5: no bet at 58. Duquesne @ Washington State (3:30 PM ET) — WSU −38.5 · 53.5: ratings −33.4/−35.0/−32.8. Stonehill @ UMass (3:30 PM ET) — MASS −31.5 · 49.5: ratings −27.3/−28.9/−26.2. Northern Iowa @ Iowa (4:00 PM ET) — IOWA −38.5 · 49.5: ratings −39.1/−40.0/−40.2 — on the number; the public book's dollars 92% UNI. SE Louisiana @ UL Monroe (4:30 PM ET) — ULM −10.5 · 48.5: ratings −6.9/−4.3/−5.9 — four to six points of SELA; the only uncarried number with a real ratings edge, and no second book to check it. Tennessee-Martin @ Memphis (7:00 PM ET) — MEM −34.5 · 56.5: ratings −34.8/−39.4/−33.7. Murray State @ Oklahoma State (7:00 PM ET) — OKST −56.5 · 70.5: no bet. Delaware State @ South Florida (7:00 PM ET) — USF −36.5 · 61.5: ratings −29.3/−30.5/−25.7 — seven-plus points of the dog at 36; not carried. Nicholls @ Sam Houston (7:00 PM ET) — SHSU −17.5 · 49.5: ratings −12.1/−12.7/−11.8 — five points of Nicholls; the public book 100% SHSU. North Dakota @ Nebraska (7:15 PM ET) — NEB −25.5 · 52.5: ratings −23.0/−20.2/−20.8 — three to five points of North Dakota. Eastern Washington @ Washington (7:15 PM ET) — WASH −42.5 · 57.5: ratings −40.3/−41.8/−39.1. East Texas A&M @ Tulsa (8:00 PM ET) — TLSA −42.5 · 56.5: ratings −27.3/−28.3/−27.7 — fifteen points of the dog; a number that size against three ratings is a flag, not a bet on an uncarried game. South Dakota @ Boise State (10:00 PM ET) — BOIS −25.5 · 56.5: ratings −23.4/−22.6/−22.8. Montana @ Oregon State (11:00 PM ET) — ORST −17.5 · 53.5: ratings −3.8/−14.4/−4.5 — PR and BR have this inside a touchdown; the room has Montana +17.5 twice.

Screened and declined, on the record — the transfer mirages and role traps, by name: Middlebrook O67.5 R+R (UVA; 2026 median 42), Joseph O29.5 rush (WIS; 3 and 33), Raynor O178.5 (ISU; we lost on him last week), Raphael O43.5 (SMU), Knight O86.5 (UCLA), McCuin O3.5 rec (OSU; 52.5-point spread), Hansen O15.5 att (PSU; 40.5-point spread), Dampier O23.5 att (UTAH; 27.5-point favorite — script 0), Kromah U61.5 (FSU; backup sample, 115 and 116 as the starter), Daniel Hill U14.5 att (ALA; backup sample), Durr U65.5 (MD; 44 and 103), Conner U42.5 (VAN; 87 last week), Hurry U37.5 (LOU; 8% share priced as a starter), Destyn Hill U52.5 (TULN; a median of zero), Roberts U19 att (MIZZ; 28 last week), Kukuk U157.5 P+R (LT; backup starting), Owens U77.5 (TXAM; RB2 Doubtful — the under is declined by the partner rule, and 77.5 is an alt), Willis O43.5 (KU; Syracuse windows), Davidson U60.5 (CLEM; freshman backup sample), Sheppard U24.5 att (DUKE; RB2 sample), Isaiah Marshall U173.5 (KU; backup sample), Grunkemeyer U243.5 (VT; another program's backup sample), Chambliss U37.5 rush (MISS; a Division II sample), Baxter U37.5 (UK; Texas backup windows). Screened, not paneled, not legs: the Rutgers, NC State and Ole Miss receiver unders; the Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Tennessee, Texas and Arizona starters' unders on 30-point spreads (the blowout rule says they are the props; the panel rule says they are not legs until a panel is read — next pass).

The ledger

Sides and totals (14): Fresno State −6.5 (57), Texas A&M −16.5 (56), Charlotte +17.5 (55), Auburn +2.5 (55), Virginia −10.5 (55), Kansas +5.5 (54), UConn −3 (54), Louisiana −7.5 (54), Louisiana Tech +19.5 (53), San Diego State −1.5 (53), Sacramento State +26.5 (53), MSST–SC Under 58.5 (53), CHAR–APP Under 52.5 (52), FRES–SJSU Under 49.5 (52). Props (11): Stockton U240.5 (8.0), Bothwell U69.5 (7.5), Lacy U17.5 (7.5), Washington U267.5 (7.5), Brown O275.5 P+R (7.5), Kim O133.5 (7.5), Moore O45.5 (7.0), Frazier U76.5 (6.5), Avant U66.5 (6.5), Martin O22.5 (6.5), Singleton O3.5 rec (6.0). Correlation, printed: Charlotte +17.5 and CHAR–APP Under are one position; Fresno −6.5 and FRES–SJSU Under are one position; the three Unders are one position (the Sep 14 cap of three); Stockton and Frazier are one Georgia blowout; Brown and Singleton are one Auburn passing game. Price note: every leg published Sat Sep 19 · 1:12 AM ET at the platform's board price and grades there; where the board toggled two numbers (Stockton 199.5/240.5, Frazier 76.5/79.5, Bothwell 69.5/72.5, Washington 267.5/273.5, Avant 66.5/69.5) the published number is the main line on the 12:50 AM board and the better number is named on the tile. Gates: Match Details run on the 12 candidate games (matchup ranks, per-market betting, injury tabs, insights); the full Props board sweep (6,207 of 6,276 rows, 2,851 core-market rows, 254 survivors, 32 panels); the second opinion on every game (two books, tracker with openers, three ratings, the Week-3 systems lists, a 164-pick expert room); weather at every leaned kickoff. Not run: the efficiency-model table and the season guide's team pages (Monday/Tuesday posts — folded into the gameday pass if published); Match Details on the 42 non-candidate games (their verdicts rest on the second opinion and the board — printed as such). Gameday pass owed before 12:00 PM ET: re-pull the board and both books; re-open the injury tabs on Kansas (Marshall/Amachree), Louisiana Tech (Kukuk), Sacramento State (Conklin — pull the leg if OUT), JMU (Evans), UConn (Merklinger); re-check the Georgia and Maryland prop lines; update displayed prices.

Sourcing: our data platform (games board, Props board, Match Details, injury tabs; captured Sat Sep 19, 12:34–1:07 AM ET); a Las Vegas betting network's money splits from the public book and the Vegas market-making book, four-book Nevada tracker with openers, three power-rating systems, the Week-3 systems lists and the expert room (12:35–12:38 AM ET); Open-Meteo at each leaned kickoff hour (1:07 AM ET); ESPN for venues and windows; beat reports for the Kansas and Baylor quarterback situations. Every published leg grades at its first-published price.

What changed on this card

2 updates · newest first

Sat Sep 19 · 1:12 AM ET First publish — 14 sides/totals, 11 props, 43 game blocks plus the 25-and-up and uncarried blocks, 33 tiles (11 PLAY). Sources: platform games board 12:34 AM, Match Details on 12 games 12:44–12:52 AM, Props sweep 12:50 AM with 32 panels 12:53–12:58 AM; two-book splits 12:35 AM, tracker 12:38 AM, ratings 12:36 AM, systems 12:37 AM, expert room 12:37 AM; Open-Meteo 1:07 AM; beat reports on the Kansas (Ballard = backup) and Baylor/Louisiana Tech (both starting QBs out) quarterback situations.

Sat Sep 19 · 9:59 AM ET Mid-morning pass (9:30–10:20 AM ET) — independent over-side sweep of the board, no legs added. 925 over props across four markets, 916 captured, 48 through the juice and hit-rate screen, 22 panelled. Five of its highest-scoring candidates (Raphael, Raynor, Joseph, Willis, Knight) are already declined on this card as transfer mirages and the decline stands — the sweep rated them on season aggregates earned at their previous schools, which is the exact trap the mirage rule exists for. The same defect applied to Jackson Harris, whose aggregate 18% target share is 9% in this jersey; he stays at WATCH. The eight remaining candidates could not be confirmed: the data platform went dark at 10:15 AM ET (board rendering, no prices in the page) before program continuity could be checked, so they are not published. Prices and lines are unchanged from first publish — there was nothing live to refresh against.

NCAAF Week 3, Saturday: Fifty-Four Games, the Sharp Money's Dogs in London and Sacramento, Fresno at Plus Money, and a Prop Board That Leans Exceed-Side

Week 3 Saturday: fifty-four platform games, sharp dollars against the public in London, Charlotte and San José, and a prop board that finally leans exceed-side

Coastal Carolina @ Delaware — CUSA, non-conference

North Carolina @ Clemson — ACC

Bowling Green @ Iowa State — non-conference

Arizona State @ Kansas — Big 12, at Wembley Stadium

Georgia @ Arkansas — SEC

Tulane @ Kansas State — non-conference

North Texas @ Texas State — non-conference

Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin — non-conference

NC State @ Vanderbilt — SEC/ACC non-conference

Wyoming @ Central Michigan — non-conference

Temple @ Toledo — non-conference

Kentucky @ Texas A&M — SEC

Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati — non-conference

USC @ Rutgers — Big Ten

SMU @ Louisville — ACC

Florida State @ Alabama — SEC

Stanford @ Duke — ACC

Louisiana Tech @ Baylor — non-conference

Ball State @ Liberty — non-conference

Mississippi State @ South Carolina — SEC

FIU @ Florida Atlantic — non-conference

Charlotte @ App State — non-conference

East Carolina @ Old Dominion — non-conference

Marshall @ Missouri State — non-conference

Nevada @ Middle Tennessee — non-conference

Florida @ Auburn — SEC

UConn @ Southern Miss — non-conference

Georgia State @ UCF — non-conference

Ohio @ South Alabama — non-conference

Western Michigan @ Rice — non-conference

Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State — non-conference

New Mexico @ Oklahoma — non-conference

West Virginia @ Virginia — Duke's Mayo Classic (neutral site)

Colorado @ Northwestern — Big Ten

Virginia Tech @ Maryland — non-conference

BYU @ Colorado State — non-conference

LSU @ Ole Miss — SEC

UAB @ Louisiana — non-conference

Arkansas State @ TCU — non-conference

James Madison @ San Diego State — non-conference

North Dakota State @ Sacramento State — non-conference

Purdue @ UCLA — Big Ten

Fresno State @ San José State — Mountain West

The 25-and-up block — sides are noise, the props are the play

Not carried on our data platform — one line each

The ledger

What changed on this card

The card, in your inbox, before first pitch.