NFL · Week 2 · Sunday Card Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET · 6 days ago Updated Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET

NFL Week 2, Sunday: Six Dogs the Sharp Dollars Want, Three Unders and No More, and a Positional Board Built After the Week's Quarterback Carnage

Fourteen games, every one with a verdict, 163 players rated on the positional boards. Six sides where a sharp-dollar layer and a model or record-backed system land on the same team (Vikings +4.5 ALIGNED, Bengals +2.5 conditional on Burrow, Commanders, Broncos, Raiders, Falcons with a backup QB the ratings already priced), three Unders capped by the ledger, and thirteen props with the why on every tile — eight of them volume overs.

Published Sat Sep 19 · 1:49 AM ET · 14 games · 13-market Props sweep (10,758 rows), 163 panels, 14 injury tabs · two-book splits with tags, four-book tracker with openers, three ratings, the Week-2 systems report, WR/CB tool, AI QB projections, 162-pick expert room · card format v3

	Player	Pick	Odds	Implied	Blended	Gap	Matchup	Prop Score	Result
1	Vikings MIN @ CHI	Vikings +4.5	-102 was -100	50.5%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
2	Bengals CIN @ HOU	Bengals +2.5	+111 was +104	47.4%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
3	Commanders WAS @ DAL	Commanders +4.5	-108 was -111	51.9%	—	—	Confirms	—	MISS
4	Broncos JAC @ DEN	Broncos −2.5	-108 was -111	51.9%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
5	Raiders LV @ LAC	Raiders +6.5	+103 was +102	49.3%	—	—	Neutral	—	HIT
6	Falcons CAR @ ATL	Falcons +2.5	+105 was +108	48.8%	—	—	Neutral	—	MISS
7	Under 43.5 LV @ LAC	Under 43.5 Points	-100 was -102	50.0%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
8	Under 41.5 PIT @ NE	Under 41.5 Points	-106 was -104	51.5%	—	—	Confirms	—	HIT
9	Under 44.5 MIA @ SF	Under 44.5 Points	-100	50.0%	—	—	Confirms	—	MISS
10	M. Wilson SEA @ ARI	Over 37.5 Rec Yds	-113 was -111	53.1%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆8.0	MISS
11	T. McBride SEA @ ARI	Over 59.5 Rec Yds	-120	54.5%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆8.0	MISS
12	T. Shough NO @ BAL	Over 231.5 Pass Yds	-113 was -112	53.1%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.0	HIT
13	D. Henry NO @ BAL	Over 93.5 Rush Yds	-111	52.6%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.5	MISS
14	T. Higgins CIN @ HOU	Over 55.5 Rec Yds	-113 was -112	53.1%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.0	HIT
15	J.K. Dobbins JAC @ DEN	Over 59.5 Rush Yds	-122 was +100	55.0%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.0	MISS
16	J. Taylor IND @ KC	Under 85.5 Rush Yds	-115	53.5%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.5	MISS
17	C. Kupp SEA @ ARI	Over 24.5 Rec Yds	-106 was -103	51.5%	—	—	Confirms	★★★☆☆6.5	MISS
18	T. Pollard PHI @ TEN	Over 41.5 Rush Yds	-113 was -110	53.1%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.0	HIT
19	T. Etienne NO @ BAL	Over 41.5 Rush Yds	-116 was -110	53.7%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.0	MISS
20	R. Odunze MIN @ CHI	Over 39.5 Rec Yds	-113 was -112	53.1%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.0	HIT
21	J. Hurts PHI @ TEN	Under 206.5 Pass Yds	-108	51.9%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆7.0	MISS
22	D. Achane MIA @ SF	Over 59.5 Rush Yds	-108	51.9%	—	—	Confirms	★★★★☆8.0	HIT

Week 2 Sunday: six dogs the sharp dollars want, three Unders and no more, and a positional board built after the week's quarterback carnage

Fourteen games, every one with a verdict, 163 players rated across the positional boards. The week's news is quarterbacks: Atlanta lost two (Penix for the season, Tua Doubtful — Cooper Rush starts), Minnesota lost Kyler Murray (Wentz), Seattle lost Darnold (Drew Lock), Cleveland's Gabriel is on IR (Watson), and Joe Burrow is Questionable with a back — the Bengals lean below is conditional on him. The bar for a side did not move from Saturday's card: a sharp-dollar layer at one of the two books and a model or record-backed system on the same team, or it prints and stays off the record. Six sides cleared it, all dogs or short favorites. Three Unders publish and a fourth and fifth print, because the ledger's cap on same-direction totals is three. The props are the positional board: thirteen legs, eight of them overs with a volume mechanism, every tile scored and explained. Board link: NFL Insights Board.

How to read the money. "The public book" is a major U.S. book; "the market-maker" is the Vegas market-making book. CONTRARIAN = the public book's tickets 65%+ on the other side. SHARP = the market-maker's dollars ten points ahead of its tickets on our side. RLM = tickets 65% one way and the line moved the other. ALIGNED = all three. Ratings are three published power-rating systems' projected home lines. Systems are the Week-2 analytics report's record-backed lists. Every opponent rank on a tile is a one-game 2026 number and scores half a point at most. WR/CB reads are the matchup tool's advantage figures (+ favors the receiver). Times are ET.

Packers @ Jets — Week 2

1:00 PM ET · FOX

Venue

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

65°F, rain 67% at kick rising to 88% by the second half, wind 10 mph with gusts to 20–22 (forecast 1:24 AM ET) — a wet, gusty afternoon

Line

NYJ -3.5 (+106) on our data platform · Packers −3.5 everywhere (+106 on the platform; +100 at two Nevada books) · Jets +3.5 −105 on the platform

Total

44.5 · opened 43.25, Nevada 44.5/45

⚡ THE JUICE. The two books' sharp dollars are on opposite teams — 83% of the market-maker's money on Green Bay (62% of tickets), 84% of the public book's money on the Jets (52% of tickets) — and that is a stay-away by rule before anything else is read. The rest: the number came from −5 to −3.5 toward the Jets, the three ratings have Green Bay by 3.2–5.8 (a shade past the number), two Week-2 systems back the Packers (lost by double digits; lost a divisional spread by 14+) and two veteran-quarterback systems fade Geno Smith's Jets (non-conference 14-36 ATS; off a win 26-40-1). Parsons is out and Jacobs is suspended for Green Bay; the Jets are without Fitzpatrick. Rain at 67% rising to 88%, gusts to 22. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): GB offense (W1): 22 ppg (T20th), 353 pass (T2nd), 66 rush (30th), 6.1 ypp (6th), 25% RZ (29th). NYJ defense: 10 ppg (T2nd), 127 pass allowed (3rd), 68 rush allowed (4th), 4.0 ypp (T3rd). Injuries: GB: DE Micah Parsons OUT (ACL), RB Josh Jacobs SUSPENDED, DT Hargrave Doubtful (concussion), DT Brinson OUT, TE Musgrave OUT, G Banks Q, CB St-Juste Q. NYJ: S Minkah Fitzpatrick OUT, WR Omar Cooper OUT, RB Nwangwu OUT, DE Ossai OUT, DE McDonald Q.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: GB 16% of the spread money on 48% of tickets; Over 44% $ / 52% tix; moneyline NYJ 79% $ / 27% tix. The market-maker: GB 83% $ / 62% tix; Over 57% $ / 40% tix; moneyline NYJ 92% $ / 40% tix. Tracker: opened -5.0, now -3.5 (home line) — Packers −3.5 everywhere (+106 on the platform; +100 at two Nevada books) · Jets +3.5 −105 on the platform; total opened 43.25, now 44.5/45. Three rating systems (home line): +3.2 / +5.8 / +3.7 vs the market -3.5; projected totals 43.3 / 42.2 vs 44.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Lost by double digits in W1 → 53-30-3 ATS ON Green Bay (Grade 65); Lost W1 divisional spread by 14+ → 15-10-1 ATS ON Green Bay; Veteran QB new team (Geno Smith), non-conference → 14-36 ATS FADE Jets; Veteran QB new team off a win → 26-40-1 FADE Jets; Splits #4 non-conf majority handle 54% ON Jets (public book) · Splits #8 one-win-difference ON Jets; Veteran-QB September UNDER 47-33-1 · ratings totals under. The network's expert room: Packers −3/−3.5 ×3; Jets +3.5 ×1; Over 44.5 ×1 (totals model, 9.1% edge).

🎯 STAY AWAY on the side and the total — the two books disagree by dollars on both. Packers −3.5 prints as the ratings-and-systems lean; the veteran-quarterback September Under (47-33-1) and both ratings under 44.5 print for the Under — against the market-maker's Over money. Wet and windy is an Under argument the models already made.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card

QBGBWATCH

Jordan Love

Love U254.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line234 vs 254.5 (−20.5) · avg 229.3

Role · share69% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 44

Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (127 allowed W1) · line 245.5 → 254.5

Median 234 against 254.5 (−20.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 69% pass. Week 1: 387. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (127 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 245.5 → 254.5.

WR1GBWATCH

Christian Watson

Watson U60.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line47.5 vs 60.5 (−13.0) · avg 65.1

Role · share6.2 tgt (19%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 36

Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (140 allowed W1) · line 60.5 → 60.5

Median 47.5 against 60.5 (−13.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 64% of 2025. 6.2 tgt (19%). Week 1: 147. Opponent rank 2 on the stat (140 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 60.5 → 60.5. WR/CB +0.07 vs Stephens.

WR2GBWATCH

Matthew Golden

Golden U49.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line10.5 vs 49.5 (−39.0) · avg 29.1

Role · share3.8 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (140 allowed W1) · line 45.5 → 49.5

Median 10.5 against 49.5 (−39.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 3.8 tgt (11%). Week 1: 95. Opponent rank 2 on the stat (140 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 45.5 → 49.5. WR/CB +0.07 vs A. Thomas.

WR3GBWATCH

Jayden Reed

Reed O/U 35.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 35.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share2.8 rec on 4.2 tgt

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (140 allowed W1) · opened 39.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

RBGBWATCH

MarShawn Lloyd

Lloyd O/U 52.5 rush yds—

Projection vs line— vs 52.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share13 att (62%) — Jacobs suspended

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (68 allowed W1) · opened 53.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

TEGBWATCH

Tucker Kraft

Kraft O/U 49.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 49.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share3.8 rec on 6 tgt

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (140 allowed W1) · opened 49.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

QBNYJWATCH

Geno Smith

Smith U207.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line188.5 vs 207.5 (−19.0) · avg 189

Role · share38% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 40

Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (132 allowed W1) · line 200.5 → 207.5

Median 188.5 against 207.5 (−19.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. 38% pass. Week 1: 215. Opponent rank 4 on the stat (132 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 200.5 → 207.5.

WR1NYJWATCH

Garrett Wilson

Wilson O/U 68.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 68.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share4.2 rec on 7.2 tgt

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (151 allowed W1) · opened 79.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR2NYJNO PLAY

Adonai Mitchell

Mitchell U34.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line33 vs 34.5 (−1.5) · avg 36.8

Role · share6.2 tgt (18%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 31

Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (151 allowed W1) · line 29.5 → 34.5

Median 33 against 34.5 (−1.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 69% of 2025. 6.2 tgt (18%). Week 1: 60. Opponent rank 4 on the stat (151 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 29.5 → 34.5. WR/CB +0.26 vs Nixon.

WR/CB edge

WR3NYJNO PLAY

Isaiah Williams

Williams U15.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.5—

Projection vs line15.5 vs 15.5 (−0.0) · avg 16.9

Role · share3.3 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 40

Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (151 allowed W1) · line 13.5 → 15.5

Median 15.5 against 15.5 (−0.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. 3.3 tgt (11%). Week 1: 7. Opponent rank 4 on the stat (151 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 13.5 → 15.5. WR/CB −0.12 vs Bullard.

RBNYJNO PLAY

Breece Hall

Hall U64.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line63 vs 64.5 (−1.5) · avg 71.9

Role · share16.6 att (58%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 44

Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (107 allowed W1) · line 70.5 → 64.5

Median 63 against 64.5 (−1.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 16.6 att (58%). Week 1: 102. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (107 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 70.5 → 64.5.

TENYJWATCH

Kenyon Sadiq

Sadiq O/U 20.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 20.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share3 rec on 3 tgt (W1) — rookie

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (151 allowed W1) · opened 24.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

Steelers @ Patriots — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET1:00 PM ET · CBS

Venue

Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

64°F at kick, rain 15% early rising to 90% by 3 PM, wind 6–7 mph (forecast 1:24 AM ET) — the second half is wet

Line

NE -5.5 (+106) on our data platform · Steelers +5.5 at all five Nevada books read and on the platform (−105) — the number crossed from 4.5/5 to 5.5 overnight

Total

41.5 · opened 43.1 · 41.5 at all five Nevada books and on the platform (Under −106) — the market-maker touched 41 Saturday and came back

⚡ THE JUICE. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Pittsburgh's WR Michael Pittman is OUT (foot; downgraded from Questionable Saturday evening) — the Steelers' passing game loses its WR1 a week after managing 58 rushing yards, and the spread moved a full point to New England (+5.5 everywhere). The total did not move (41.5 at all five books; the market-maker touched 41 Saturday afternoon and came back). The books now DISAGREE on the total by dollars: the public book has the Under at 62% of the money on 56% of tickets, but the market-maker has the OVER at 82% of its dollars on 33% of its tickets (+49, SHARP the other way). That is the doctrine's stay-away shape — printed against our own leg. Rain still due mid-afternoon. The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. Both books' dollars are on New England — 88% at the market-maker on 62% of tickets (+26), 60% at the public book on 42% of tickets (+18, CONTRARIAN against 58% Pittsburgh tickets) — and the three ratings call the number fair (New England by 5.3–5.6 against a 5). The systems are the other way: Pittsburgh is a small road dog off a Week-1 loss (26-6 ATS since 2016, the report's top-graded system), its opponent played the weeknight opener, and New England is a home team off a close Week-1 loss (5-17 ATS). Money and model on one side, the best system on the other. Pittsburgh's offense managed 58 rushing yards and 4.0 a play in Week 1; Joey Porter is out, Pittman Questionable; New England lost A.J. Brown to IR and has Carlton Davis Questionable. Rain arrives at 3 PM. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): PIT offense (W1): 20 ppg, 58 rush (32nd), 4.0 ypp (T28th), 23% 3rd down (25th). NE defense: 13 ppg (T6th), 0% RZ (T1st), 18% 3rd-down D (5th), 97 rush allowed (11th). Injuries: PIT: CB Joey Porter OUT (back), WR Michael Pittman Q (ankle), OT Fautanu Q. NE: WR A.J. Brown IR, LB Harold Landry OUT, CB Carlton Davis Q (neck), LB Dre'Mont Jones Q, C Ben Brown Q.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: PIT 40% of the spread money on 58% of tickets; Over 20% $ / 45% tix; moneyline NE 83% $ / 71% tix. The market-maker: PIT 12% $ / 38% tix; Over 9% $ / 9% tix; moneyline PIT 79% $ / 50% tix. Tracker: opened -5.1, now -5.0 (home line) — Steelers +5 at all four Nevada books · +4.5 (+104) on the platform — the platform's 4.5 is the worse dog number, the +104 is the price; total opened 43.1, now 41.5. Three rating systems (home line): -5.6 / -5.3 / -5.5 vs the market -4.5; projected totals 40.3 / 41.6 vs 41.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Small road dog off a W1 loss → 26-6 ATS (81%, Grade 75) ON Pittsburgh; W1 close loss (≤5) at home → 5-17 ATS (Grade 68) FADE New England; Opponent played the weeknight opener → 26-17-1 ATS ON Pittsburgh; W1 close win (≤3) → W2 UNDER 44-23-1 (Grade 65); W1 total under by 17+ → OVER 29-19 (Grade 56); Splits #5 ON Pittsburgh · #8 ON Pittsburgh · #10 UNDER (56%+ bets Under); Retread coach first 8 games FADE Pittsburgh (38.6%). The network's expert room: Steelers +5.5 ×2; Patriots −5.5 ×2.

🎯 UNDER 41.5 (−104) — conviction 55. The side is a stay-away, printed as money-versus-system. The Under has both books' sharp dollars (80% on 55% of tickets at the public book; 91% on 91% at the market-maker), the ratings a half-point under (40.3 / 41.6), and four systems: the Week-1 close-win Under (44-23-1), the 56%-tickets-Under splits system, Pittsburgh's 111-79 Under run since 2015, and five of the last six in the series under. Argument against: the one system pointing Over (a Week-1 total that went under by 17+ → Over 29-19), 41.5 is already a low number, and a second-half rain can turn a low total into a slog or into fumbles. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — Under 41.5 re-sized 55 → 50; it grades at −104 as published. Two of three money layers flipped against it overnight: the market-maker's Over dollars (82% on 33% of tickets) are a sharp Over, and the books now disagree by dollars, which the doctrine calls a stay-away. Pittman OUT is the argument that still holds — a Steelers offense without its WR1, in rain, behind a 5.5-point line, is a low-scoring shape — and the public book's Under money (62%) agrees. Fewer layers than we published with: the number comes down to the bottom of the band. Best number is still 41.5 at −106/−104; nothing better posted.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card

QBPITWATCH

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers U204.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line194.5 vs 204.5 (−10.0) · avg 199.7

Role · share67% pass

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (188 allowed W1) · line 217.5 → 204.5

Median 194.5 against 204.5 (−10.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 67% pass. Week 1: 221. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (188 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 217.5 → 204.5.

WR1PITWATCH

DK Metcalf

Metcalf U56.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line41 vs 56.5 (−15.5) · avg 47.1

Role · share7.1 tgt (20%)

Hit windowsL10 10 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 25

Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (200 allowed W1) · line 54.5 → 56.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 41 against 56.5 (−15.5); under in 90% of the last ten and 75% of 2025. 7.1 tgt (20%). Week 1: 40. Opponent rank 12 on the stat (200 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 54.5 → 56.5. WR/CB −0.06 vs Gonzalez.

WR2PITWATCH

Michael Pittman Jr.

Pittman U34.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line26.5 vs 34.5 (−8.0) · avg 39.6

Role · share5.8 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 53

Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (200 allowed W1) · line 32.5 → 34.5

Median 26.5 against 34.5 (−8.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 5.8 tgt (16%). Week 1: 58. Opponent rank 12 on the stat (200 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 32.5 → 34.5. WR/CB −0.04 vs C. Davis. Questionable (ankle). Gameday (10:52 AM ET): OUT (foot) — downgraded Saturday evening.

Questionable (ankle)OUT

WR3PITWATCH

Roman Wilson

Wilson U30.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line14.5 vs 30.5 (−16.0) · avg 18.5

Role · share2.5 tgt (7%)

Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 0 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 15

Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (200 allowed W1) · line 20.5 → 30.5

Median 14.5 against 30.5 (−16.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 85% of 2025. 2.5 tgt (7%). Week 1: 26. Opponent rank 12 on the stat (200 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 20.5 → 30.5. WR/CB +0.16 vs M. Jones.

RBPITWATCH

Jaylen Warren

Warren O44.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line54 vs 44.5 (+9.5) · avg 57.3

Role · share12 att (49%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 65

Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (97 allowed W1) · line 41.5 → 44.5

54 median on 44.5, 49% share, the line raised three — Pittsburgh's 67% pass rate is the dissent. Median 54 against 44.5 (+9.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 65% of 2025. 12 att (49%). Week 1: 46. Opponent rank 11 on the stat (97 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 41.5 → 44.5.

TEPITNO PLAY

Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth U29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—

Projection vs line19.5 vs 29.5 (−10.0) · avg 29

Role · share3.4 tgt (9%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (200 allowed W1) · line 28.5 → 29.5

Median 19.5 against 29.5 (−10.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 3.4 tgt (9%). Week 1: 46. Opponent rank 12 on the stat (200 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 28.5 → 29.5.

QBNENO PLAY

Drake Maye

Maye U224.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line223.5 vs 224.5 (−1.0) · avg 227

Role · share54% pass

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 71

Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (118 allowed W1) · line 215.5 → 224.5

Median 223.5 against 224.5 (−1.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 29% of 2025. 54% pass. Week 1: 178. Opponent rank 2 on the stat (118 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 215.5 → 224.5.

WR1NENO PLAY

Romeo Doubs

Doubs U39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line29.5 vs 39.5 (−10.0) · avg 40.7

Role · share4.7 tgt (14%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 59

Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (143 allowed W1) · line 36.5 → 39.5

Median 29.5 against 39.5 (−10.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 41% of 2025. 4.7 tgt (14%). Week 1: 0. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (143 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 36.5 → 39.5. WR/CB +0.09 vs Jamel Dean.

WR2NEWATCH

Mack Hollins

Hollins O35.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line51 vs 35.5 (+15.5) · avg 52.2

Role · share5.9 tgt (17%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 100 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (143 allowed W1) · line 37.5 → 35.5

+0.30 on the WR/CB tool against Asante Samuel, a 51 median on 35.5 — and Pittsburgh allowed 143 receiving yards in Week 1 (3rd); rated, not bet. Median 51 against 35.5 (+15.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 5.9 tgt (17%). Week 1: 51. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (143 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 37.5 → 35.5. WR/CB +0.30 vs A. Samuel.

Opp rank the wrong wayWR/CB edge

WR3NEWATCH

DeMario Douglas

Douglas U34.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line15 vs 34.5 (−19.5) · avg 18.2

Role · share2.9 tgt (9%)

Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (143 allowed W1) · line 31.5 → 34.5

+0.67 against Ramsey in the slot is the largest edge on the tool; his median is 15 on a 34.5 line — the market priced the edge already. Median 15 against 34.5 (−19.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 2.9 tgt (9%). Week 1: 20. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (143 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 31.5 → 34.5. WR/CB +0.67 vs Ramsey — the largest edge on the board.

WR/CB edge

RBNEWATCH

Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson O49.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line51 vs 49.5 (+1.5) · avg 58.7

Role · share11.7 att (40%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 44

Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (120 allowed W1) · line 48.5 → 49.5

Median 51 against 49.5 (+1.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 44% of 2025. 11.7 att (40%). Week 1: 51. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (120 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 48.5 → 49.5.

TENENO PLAY

Hunter Henry

Henry U39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line33 vs 39.5 (−6.5) · avg 36.9

Role · share4.2 tgt (13%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 48

Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (143 allowed W1) · line 33.5 → 39.5

Median 33 against 39.5 (−6.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 52% of 2025. 4.2 tgt (13%). Week 1: 26. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (143 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 33.5 → 39.5.

Saints @ Ravens — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET1:00 PM ET · CBS

Venue

M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

76°F warming to 82, rain 23% rising to 46% late, wind 8–11 mph (forecast 1:24 AM ET)

Line

BAL -8.5 (+106) on our data platform · +8.5 at all five Nevada books (−106 on the platform)

Total

45.5 · opened 47.6 · 45 at the market-maker, 45.5 at three Nevada books, 46 at Wynn, 45.5 on the platform

⚡ THE JUICE. Inactives pass, Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET — what changed since 10:52 AM: Chris Olave is ACTIVE (league box-score feed, 2:07 PM ET, 2nd quarter); Flowers OUT confirmed on the inactives. Shough O231.5 keeps its full target tree; the 6.0 cap was scored off the Q tag and stays on the record as scored. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Zay Flowers is OUT (hamburger-string — downgraded from Doubtful to OUT Saturday evening); Ronnie Stanley is Questionable (toe); Chris Olave is still Questionable (hamstring) with no downgrade as of 10:46 AM. Baltimore without its WR1 is a run-heavier Baltimore: Henry's 60% carry share is the mechanism of the Over 93.5 leg, and the board moved with it — Henry's main rushing line is 94.5/95.5 this morning, up from 93.5 (+1 to +2 of line value on the published number). Shough's 231.5 held (−113); Etienne's 41.5 held (−116). The total's money split by book: the public book has the Over at 81% of the money on 82% of tickets; the market-maker has the UNDER at 75% of its dollars on 23% of tickets (+52, SHARP) — dissent against a Saints passing-yardage Over, agreement with a Ravens ground-game script. The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. Baltimore's WR1 Zay Flowers is Doubtful, Madubuike is out for the season, Stanley is Questionable — and the number has not moved from 8.5. The ratings have Baltimore by 8.2–12.4, a point and a half past it; the systems split evenly (Baltimore scored 35+ in Week 1 → 20-8 ATS; New Orleans scored 30+ and is now a dog → 23-38 ATS; but the Saints are 43-26 ATS on the road and Lamar is 13-27 ATS as a single-digit home favorite). The money is flat at both books (56/54 Baltimore; 52/45 Saints). The total is where the cash sits: the market-maker's Under holds 75% of the dollars on 27% of tickets (+48), the public book's Under 37% of dollars on 22% of tickets (+15) — two sharp Unders — against a model that projects 46.9–48.4, over the 46.5, and a Week-2 system (won a 50+-point Week-1 game → Under 34-18). The matchup tab (Week 1 only): NO offense (W1): 30 ppg (11th), 378 pass (1st), 29 first downs (T1st), 47% 3rd down (10th), 3 TO (T29th). BAL defense: 23 ppg (T14th), 149 pass allowed (5th), 4.6 ypp (9th), 9 QB hits (T3rd). Injuries: NO: WR Chris Olave Q (hamstring), DE Chase Young Q, LB Stalbird Doubtful, OL Saldiveri OUT; RBs Chandler/Estime IR. BAL: WR Zay Flowers DOUBTFUL (hamstring), DL Madubuike OUT (neck), LB Buchanan OUT, CB Tampa OUT, T Ronnie Stanley Q (toe), G Simpson Q, OLB Hendrickson Q.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: NO 44% of the spread money on 46% of tickets; Over 63% $ / 78% tix; moneyline BAL 94% $ / 95% tix. The market-maker: NO 52% $ / 45% tix; Over 25% $ / 73% tix; moneyline BAL 100/100 (thin). Tracker: opened -8.1, now -8.5 (home line) — +8.5 everywhere (−104 on the platform); total opened 47.6, now 46/46.5. Three rating systems (home line): -9.6 / -8.2 / -12.4 vs the market -8.5; projected totals 48.4 / 46.9 vs 46.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Scored 35+ in W1 → 20-8 ATS (71%, Grade 65) ON Baltimore; Scored 30+ in W1, now a dog → 23-38 ATS FADE New Orleans; Both 1-0 ATS → dogs 30-22-1 ON New Orleans (Grade 55); Won a 50+-point W1 game → UNDER 34-18 (Grade 64); Rookie HC at home FADE Baltimore; rookie HC big favorite ML 86% SU; Splits #4 ON New Orleans (non-conf handle) · #8 ON Baltimore · #9 OVER (46.5+, bets majority); Lamar 13-27 ATS as a single-digit home favorite; 6-14 ATS vs ≤33% teams. The network's expert room: Saints +8.5 ×3; Ravens teasers ×2; Lamar U228.5 pass ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on the side. UNDER 46.5 printed, not published — two money layers, one system, and the model a point against. The props are the game: Shough's volume and Henry's carries are the two reads, and they are one position each way (a Baltimore blowout feeds Henry and starves Etienne; a competitive game feeds Shough). Olave's tag decides the Saints' passing legs. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET): the side stays a stay-away (the public book's spread money is 54/46 Baltimore, the market-maker's 52/48 Saints — nothing to hold). Of the three props: Henry O93.5 gets stronger on the news and the line (Flowers OUT, board to 94.5–95.5); Shough O231.5 gets a printed dissent (the market-maker's Under money on the total, and the Olave tag still capping the leg at 6.0); Etienne O41.5 unchanged. No re-sizes on props — the Prop Score is the panel's, and the panel did not change. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET): Olave active — Shough O231.5, Henry O93.5 and Etienne O41.5 stand as published. The printed dissent on Shough (the market-maker's Under money on the total) still stands; the availability question does not.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 3 on the card

QBNOPLAY

Tyler Shough

Shough O231.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−112

Projection vs line265.5 vs 231.5 (+34.0) · avg 266.6

Role · share71% pass

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 64

Opponent · lineopp rank 5 (149 allowed W1) · line 225.5 → 231.5

A 265 median, ten of ten over 231.5, 410 yards last week in a 71%-pass offense that will trail by a touchdown-plus in Baltimore — the volume script is the leg. Capped at 6.0 because Olave is Questionable; if he sits the volume goes to Vele and Johnson, not away. Baltimore's 5th-ranked pass defense is one game of Daniel Jones. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): Olave still Questionable (cap 6.0 stands); 231.5 holds at −113; the market-maker's total money is 75% UNDER on 23% of tickets — printed dissent. Inactives (2:07 PM ET): Olave ACTIVE — full target tree; leg live at 231.5 (−112).

71% pass, +8.5 dog — volume scriptOlave Q — capped 6.0Olave Q — cap 6.0Sharp Under money on the totalOlave ACTIVE

WR1NOWATCH

Chris Olave

Olave O71.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line77.5 vs 71.5 (+6.0) · avg 90.5

Role · share9.8 tgt (24%) — Questionable (hamstring)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 38

Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (166 allowed W1) · line 65.5 → 71.5

the 182-yard Week 1 receiver is Questionable (hamstring) — no leg until the tag clears. Median 77.5 against 71.5 (+6.0); over in 50% of the last ten and 38% of 2025. 9.8 tgt (24%) — Questionable (hamstring). Week 1: 182. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (166 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 65.5 → 71.5. WR/CB +0.11 vs Humphrey. Questionable (hamstring). Gameday (10:52 AM ET): still Questionable at 10:46 AM; inactives at 11:30 decide it. Inactives (2:07 PM ET): ACTIVE.

Opp rank the wrong wayQuestionable (hamstring)Q — 11:30 inactivesACTIVE

WR2NOWATCH

Devaughn Vele

Vele U41.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line26 vs 41.5 (−15.5) · avg 33.3

Role · share4.3 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 15

Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (166 allowed W1) · line 30.5 → 41.5

Median 26 against 41.5 (−15.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 85% of 2025. 4.3 tgt (11%). Week 1: 69. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (166 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 30.5 → 41.5. WR/CB +0.06 vs K. Martin.

WR3NOWATCH

Bryce Lance

Lance O/U 17.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 17.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share3 rec on 4 tgt (W1)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (166 allowed W1) · opened 17.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

RBNOPLAY

Travis Etienne Jr.

Etienne O41.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.0−110

Projection vs line58.5 vs 41.5 (+17.0) · avg 56.4

Role · share14.4 att (50%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 78

Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (102 allowed W1) · line 40.5 → 41.5

A 58.5 median on 41.5 — seventeen yards of cushion — seven of ten and 78% of 2025 over the number, on 50% of the carries in an offense that is 71% pass. That last fact is the dissent, and it is why script scores half: an 8.5-point dog that throws 71% does not run late. Baltimore allowed 102 rushing yards in Week 1 (12th). Gameday (10:52 AM ET): 41.5 holds (−116, from −110). Flowers OUT does not touch the Saints' backfield.

17 yds of cushion71% pass offense — script 0.5One position with Shough41.5 holds

TENOWATCH

Juwan Johnson

Johnson O39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line50 vs 39.5 (+10.5) · avg 57.5

Role · share5.7 tgt (15%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 59

Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (166 allowed W1) · line 30.5 → 39.5

50 median on 39.5 at 15% share, and the books RAISED it nine — into Baltimore's 7th-ranked coverage (W1); Conflicts. Median 50 against 39.5 (+10.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 59% of 2025. 5.7 tgt (15%). Week 1: 54. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (166 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 30.5 → 39.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

QBBALWATCH

Lamar Jackson

Jackson U211.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line198.5 vs 211.5 (−13.0) · avg 200.4

Role · share42% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 38

Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (204 allowed W1) · line 225.5 → 211.5

the books cut his passing line 14 from the open (225.5 → 211.5) with Flowers Doubtful — the under is spent. Median 198.5 against 211.5 (−13.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 62% of 2025. 42% pass. Week 1: 324. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (204 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 225.5 → 211.5.

WR1BALWATCH

Rashod Bateman

Bateman U35.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line7.5 vs 35.5 (−28.0) · avg 11.2

Role · share2.2 tgt (8%)

Hit windowsL10 10 · L5 0 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 15

Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (206 allowed W1) · line 35.5 → 35.5

Median 7.5 against 35.5 (−28.0); under in 90% of the last ten and 85% of 2025. 2.2 tgt (8%). Week 1: 0. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (206 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 35.5 → 35.5. WR/CB +0.15 vs McKinstry. Flowers Doubtful — targets move.

Flowers Doubtful — targets move

WR2BALWATCH

LaJohntay Wester

Wester U21.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—

Projection vs line0 vs 21.5 (−21.5) · avg 1.5

Role · share0.2 tgt (1%)

Hit windowsL10 0 · L5 0 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 0

Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (206 allowed W1) · line 20.5 → 21.5

Median 0 against 21.5 (−21.5); under in 100% of the last ten and 100% of 2025. 0.2 tgt (1%). Week 1: 15. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (206 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 20.5 → 21.5. WR/CB +0.31 vs Sanker.

WR/CB edge

WR3BALNO PLAY

Devontez Walker

Walker U19.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line0 vs 19.5 (−19.5) · avg 11

Role · share0.6 tgt (2%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20 (over side) · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (206 allowed W1) · line 19.5 → 19.5

Median 0 against 19.5 (−19.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 0.6 tgt (2%). Week 1: 46. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (206 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 19.5 → 19.5. WR/CB +0.16 vs Q. Riley.

RBBALPLAY

Derrick Henry

Henry O93.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.5−111

Projection vs line101.5 vs 93.5 (+8.0) · avg 111

Role · share20.3 att (60%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 100 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 53

Opponent · lineopp rank 27 (165 allowed W1) · line 83.5 → 93.5

A 101.5 median on 93.5, 126 and 144 in his last two, 60% of the carries in an offense that is an 8.5-point favorite with its WR1 Doubtful — the run game gets the extra snaps. New Orleans allowed 165 rushing yards in Week 1 (27th), a one-game rank scored half a point. The line has climbed ten since the open; the panel still sits eight above it. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): Flowers OUT (from Doubtful) — the run share thesis firms; board main line now 94.5 (−113) / 95.5 (−110). Published 93.5 grades at −111.

Flowers Doubtful — the offense runsLine +10 since openFlowers OUTLine 93.5 → 94.5/95.5

TEBALWATCH

Mark Andrews

Andrews U49.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line19.5 vs 49.5 (−30.0) · avg 24.1

Role · share4.3 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 0 · L5 0 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 6

Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (206 allowed W1) · line 45.5 → 49.5

Median 19.5 against 49.5 (−30.0); under in 100% of the last ten and 94% of 2025. 4.3 tgt (16%). Week 1: 49. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (206 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 45.5 → 49.5. Flowers Doubtful — targets move.

Flowers Doubtful — targets move

Vikings @ Bears — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET1:00 PM ET · FOX

Venue

Soldier Field · Chicago, IL · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

69°F, rain 57% at kick easing to 30%, wind 13–14 mph with gusts to 20 (forecast 1:24 AM ET) — showers and a lake wind

Line

CHI -4.5 (−100) on our data platform · Vikings +4.5 at all five Nevada books and on the platform (−102)

Total

47.5 · opened 47.25 · 47 at three Nevada books, 47.5 at two and on the platform

⚡ THE JUICE. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Kyler Murray OUT (concussion) is confirmed — Carson Wentz starts; WR Jauan Jennings is OUT (personal). The number has not moved off 4.5 anywhere. The tags held overnight: the public book has 69% of the tickets on Chicago with only 59% of the money; the market-maker has Minnesota at 68% of its dollars on 32% of its tickets (+36, SHARP). CONTRARIAN + SHARP; the line froze at 4.5 with the public on the favorite. The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. Kyler Murray is out with a concussion and Carson Wentz starts for Minnesota — and the market-maker's dollars are 84% Minnesota on 30% of tickets (+54, the largest sharp gap on the board), CONTRARIAN against 70% of the public book's tickets on Chicago, with the line moving from 5 to 4.5 toward the Vikings anyway (RLM). The three ratings have Chicago by 1.9–4.7, an average of 3.4 against a 4.5 — a point of Minnesota. Five Week-2 systems back the Vikings (small road dog off a loss 26-6; second straight divisional game 37-19-1; dog in back-to-back divisional games 22-12-1; both 1-0 ATS → dogs; a big Week-1 divisional win → 29-19-2) and two fade Chicago (scored 45+ then favored at home by 3+ → 13-28 ATS; the divisional-majority splits fade). Chicago's defense allowed 37 points, 353 passing yards and 7.8 a play in Week 1 — 28th to 31st in everything — while forcing three takeaways and leading the league in hurries. Rain at 57%, wind 13–14 with gusts to 20 off the lake. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): MIN offense (W1): 39 ppg (4th), 132 pass (29th), 3.8 ypp (31st), 53% 3rd down (6th). CHI defense: 37 ppg allowed (28th), 353 pass allowed (T31st), 7.8 ypp allowed (T29th), 16 hurries (1st), 3 takeaways (T2nd). Injuries: MIN: QB Kyler Murray OUT (concussion) — Carson Wentz starts; WR Jauan Jennings OUT (personal), RB Jordan Mason IR, T Brian O'Neill Q. CHI: DB Kyler Gordon OUT, S Anthony Johnson OUT, LB Noah Sewell OUT, DL Shemar Turner OUT.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: MIN 20% of the spread money on 33% of tickets; Over 59% $ / 81% tix; moneyline CHI 93% $ / 87% tix. The market-maker: MIN 84% $ / 30% tix; Over 21% $ / 76% tix; moneyline CHI 100% $ / 83% tix. Tracker: opened -4.9, now -4.5 (home line) — +4.5 everywhere (−100 on the platform); total opened 47.25, now 47.5/48. Three rating systems (home line): -3.7 / -1.9 / -4.7 vs the market -4.5; projected totals 48.4 / 48.3 vs 47.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Small road dog off a W1 loss → 26-6 ATS (Grade 75) ON Minnesota; Second straight divisional game → 37-19-1 ATS (Grade 65) ON Minnesota; Dog in second of back-to-back divisional games → 22-12-1 ON Minnesota; Scored 45+ then favored at home by 3+ → 13-28 ATS FADE Chicago; Both 1-0 ATS → dogs ON Minnesota · big W1 divisional win ON Minnesota; Won a 50+-point W1 game → UNDER 34-18; Splits #2/#3 divisional majority FADE Chicago · #9 OVER (bets majority) · #11 74%+ Over handle → UNDER instead. The network's expert room: Vikings +4.5/+5.5 ×2; Bears −4.5 ×1; Over 47.5–49 ×3; Under 48.5 ×1; Bears TT Over ×1.

🎯 MINNESOTA +4.5 (−100 on the platform) — conviction 57, the card's top side. ALIGNED: the sharpest dollar split on the slate, the public on the other side, reverse line movement, a ratings edge, and the report's top-graded system with four more behind it. Argument against, and it is a real one: Wentz is the quarterback, the Bears' pass rush led the league in hurries in Week 1, and the lake weather favors the team with the better run game (Chicago, 60.5 Swift median vs Minnesota's 50). The Under 47.5 has the market-maker's dollars (79% on 24% of tickets, +55) and a Grade-64 system against a model a point over the number — printed, not published; the weather is its friend. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — Minnesota +4.5 holds 57. Every layer we published on is still there this morning, and the Jennings scratch is a small additional reason the Bears' number should not be shorter than it is. Odunze O39.5 holds at −113 (was −112). Best number: +4.5 everywhere; the platform's −102 is the price.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card

QBMINWATCH

Carson Wentz

Wentz O/U 219.5 pass yds—

Projection vs line— vs 219.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share39.4 pass plays (64%), 21.6 comp — starts for Murray (OUT)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (353 allowed W1) · opened 199.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR1MINWATCH

Justin Jefferson

Jefferson U80.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—

Projection vs line42.5 vs 80.5 (−38.0) · avg 49.1

Role · share7.8 tgt (27%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 29

Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (361 allowed W1) · line 77.5 → 80.5

Median 42.5 against 80.5 (−38.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. 7.8 tgt (27%). Week 1: 92. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (361 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 77.5 → 80.5. WR/CB +0.21 vs T. Stevenson. QB change — Wentz starts.

Opp rank the wrong wayQB change — Wentz startsWR/CB edge

WR2MINWATCH

Jordan Addison

Addison U39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line23 vs 39.5 (−16.5) · avg 25.3

Role · share4.7 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 43

Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (361 allowed W1) · line 33.5 → 39.5

Median 23 against 39.5 (−16.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 57% of 2025. 4.7 tgt (16%). Week 1: 0. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (361 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 33.5 → 39.5. WR/CB +0.18 vs Jaylon Johnson. QB change — Wentz starts.

Opp rank the wrong wayQB change — Wentz starts

WR3MINWATCH

Jauan Jennings

Jennings O9.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.5—

Projection vs line40 vs 9.5 (+30.5) · avg 38.7

Role · share4.9 tgt (16%) — OUT (personal)

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 94

Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (361 allowed W1) · line 19.5 → 9.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 40 against 9.5 (+30.5); over in 90% of the last ten and 94% of 2025. 4.9 tgt (16%) — OUT (personal). Week 1: 0. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (361 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 19.5 → 9.5. OUT (personal).

OUT (personal)

RBMINNO PLAY

Aaron Jones Sr.

Jones U61.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line50 vs 61.5 (−11.5) · avg 52.7

Role · share12.6 att (48%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (125 allowed W1) · line 43.5 → 61.5

Median 50 against 61.5 (−11.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 12.6 att (48%). Week 1: 40. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (125 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 43.5 → 61.5. QB change — Wentz starts.

QB change — Wentz starts

TEMINNO PLAY

T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson U29.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—

Projection vs line22.5 vs 29.5 (−7.0) · avg 27.8

Role · share3.8 tgt (13%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (361 allowed W1) · line 28.5 → 29.5

Median 22.5 against 29.5 (−7.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 3.8 tgt (13%). Week 1: 36. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (361 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 28.5 → 29.5. QB change — Wentz starts.

Opp rank the wrong wayQB change — Wentz starts

QBCHIWATCH

Caleb Williams

Williams O229.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—

Projection vs line246 vs 229.5 (+16.5) · avg 250

Role · share44% pass

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 53

Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (353 allowed W1) · line 240.5 → 229.5

panel says over (246 median), the AI projection says UNDER 176 — disagreement, and the line already came down 11. Median 246 against 229.5 (+16.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 44% pass. Week 1: 269. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (353 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 240.5 → 229.5.

WR1CHIWATCH

Luther Burden III

Burden U51.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line44 vs 51.5 (−7.5) · avg 55.9

Role · share6.1 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 24

Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (387 allowed W1) · line 57.5 → 51.5

Median 44 against 51.5 (−7.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 76% of 2025. 6.1 tgt (16%). Week 1: 63. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (387 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 57.5 → 51.5. WR/CB −0.23 vs B. Murphy.

Opp rank the wrong wayWR/CB against

WR2CHIPLAY

Rome Odunze

Odunze O39.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0−112

Projection vs line44 vs 39.5 (+4.5) · avg 47.3

Role · share6.5 tgt (18%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 64

Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (387 allowed W1) · line 33.5 → 39.5

Seven of ten over 39.5 with a 44 median, 64% of 2025, 52 in Week 1 — into a Minnesota secondary that allowed 387 receiving yards in its opener (32nd, one game). The books RAISED the line six from 33.5 — the market moving against a panel that still clears it. The WR/CB tool has him at −0.18 against Isaiah Rodgers, which is the printed dock; the volume (18% of targets, 6.5 a game) is the leg. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): 39.5 holds (−113). Jennings OUT on the other sideline is neutral for him.

MIN 32nd vs rec yds (W1)Line raised 6WR/CB −0.18 vs I. Rodgers39.5 holds

WR3CHINO PLAY

Kalif Raymond

Raymond O24.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—

Projection vs line28.5 vs 24.5 (+4.0) · avg 32.6

Role · share3 tgt (7%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 27

Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (387 allowed W1) · line 26.5 → 24.5

Median 28.5 against 24.5 (+4.0); over in 50% of the last ten and 27% of 2025. 3 tgt (7%). Week 1: 84. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (387 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 26.5 → 24.5. WR/CB −0.23 vs Pierre.

WR/CB against

RBCHINO PLAY

D'Andre Swift

Swift U60.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—

Projection vs line60.5 vs 60.5 (−0.0) · avg 70.7

Role · share13.9 att (45%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (66 allowed W1) · line 65.5 → 60.5

Median 60.5 against 60.5 (−0.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 13.9 att (45%). Week 1: 124. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (66 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 65.5 → 60.5.

TECHINO PLAY

Colston Loveland

Loveland U52.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—

Projection vs line52.5 vs 52.5 (−0.0) · avg 57.7

Role · share7.6 tgt (20%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 39

Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (387 allowed W1) · line 40.5 → 52.5

Median 52.5 against 52.5 (−0.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 61% of 2025. 7.6 tgt (20%). Week 1: 0. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (387 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 40.5 → 52.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

Eagles @ Titans — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET1:00 PM ET · FOX

Venue

Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

97°F at kick rising to 100°F, sunny, wind 3–5 mph (forecast 1:24 AM ET) — the hottest kickoff of the day, by a lot

Line

TEN +7 (+100) on our data platform · +7 at all five Nevada books (+100 at Wynn)

Total

39.5 · opened 41.0 · 39.5 everywhere (Under +104 on the platform)

⚡ THE JUICE. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Hurts' main passing line moved to 209.5 (Under −120) with 199.5 (−122) the alt — our published Under 206.5 sits three yards inside the market now, and the board no longer posts it. Pollard's 41.5 holds (−113, from −110). The public book is 91% tickets and 91% money on Philadelphia at −7; the market-maker 80/82. Both books have the Under: public book 62% of the money on 31% of tickets (+31), market-maker 100% of dollars on 88% of tickets — a total that keeps sliding (41 → 39.5). The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. Ninety-five percent of the public book's money and 87% of the market-maker's are on Philadelphia at −7 — the public and the sharps together — and the three ratings have the Eagles by 6.9–9.2, on the number. Two Week-2 systems back Tennessee (both 0-1 ATS → dogs 30-15-2; lost by double digits at home → 28-9 ATS), the splits systems split on Philadelphia (68%+ handle on a road side → 70-50 ON; 77%+ handle on a 6.5+ favorite → 13-25 FADE). It is 97°F at kick and 100°F by the third quarter — the hottest game of the day by twenty degrees. The total is where the books disagree: the public book's Under holds 78% of the money on 37% of tickets (+41); the market-maker's Over 99% on 83%. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): PHI offense (W1): 24 ppg, 136 rush (7th), 5.9 ypp (T8th), 10 first downs (31st), 0 TO. TEN defense: 23 ppg, 17% 3rd-down D (T2nd), 152 rush allowed (26th), 0 sacks (T28th). Injuries: PHI: G Landon Dickerson IR, OLB Greenard OUT, S Mukuba Q, WR Danny Gray Q. TEN: CB Flott Q, LB Cedric Gray Q (concussion), LB James Williams Q.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: PHI 95% of the spread money on 90% of tickets; Over 22% $ / 63% tix; moneyline PHI 99% $ / 98% tix. The market-maker: PHI 87% $ / 85% tix; Over 99% $ / 83% tix; moneyline PHI 100/100. Tracker: opened +6.0, now +7.0 (home line) — +7 everywhere (+100 on the platform; +100 at BetMGM); total opened 41.0, now 39/39.5. Three rating systems (home line): +7.4 / +9.2 / +6.9 vs the market +7.0; projected totals 40.1 / 41.4 vs 39.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Both 0-1 ATS → dogs 30-15-2 ATS (Grade 63) ON Tennessee; Lost by double digits in W1 (home) → 28-9 ATS (Grade 70) ON Tennessee; Retread coach at home ON Tennessee; retread non-conf/first-8/off-loss FADE Tennessee; Splits #1 68%+ handle on a road side → 70-50 ON Philadelphia · #4 ON Philadelphia · #6 77%+ handle on a 6.5+ favorite → 13-25 FADE Philadelphia; Sirianni 6-13 ATS vs poor teams; Titans 14-38-1 ATS Sundays. The network's expert room: Eagles −7/−1 ×3; Titans +7 ×1; Under 40.5–45.5 ×4; Titans TT Under 16.5 ×1; Over 39.5 ×1 (totals model).

🎯 STAY AWAY on both. A side the whole market agrees on at a number the ratings call fair, a total the two books' cash disagrees on. The heat is the handicap, and it lands on the props: Pollard's carries and Hurts' passing yards are the two legs, and they are the same script (a seven-point favorite runs it in 100 degrees; a home dog runs to shorten it). UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET): both props hold. Hurts U206.5 gained three yards of closing value (board 209.5) — the low-total, run-first Eagles script both books are betting is the leg's mechanism. Pollard O41.5 holds at −113. The side and total remain stay-aways as published; nothing new to argue.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 2 on the card

QBPHIPLAY

Jalen Hurts

Hurts U205.5 pass yds−108

Projection vs line184 vs 205.5 (−21.5) · avg 191.8

Role · share53% pass

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 0 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 41

Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (215 allowed W1) · line 207.5 → 205.5

Under 206.5 on a 184 median — seven of ten under with a 53%-pass offense that is a 7-point favorite in 100-degree heat, which is a Barkley script. The AI projection has 168 (UNDER, one star), and the two models agreeing is printed, not scored. Tennessee's 21st-ranked pass defense is the neutral in the read; 203 last week against Washington is the argument against. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): board main line 209.5 (U −120), alt 199.5 (U −122); published 206.5 is three yards better than the market and grades at −108.

Two models agree (168 / 184)Barkley script in 100°F203 in W1Line 206.5 → 209.5 (+3 CLV)

WR1PHIWATCH

DeVonta Smith

Smith U60.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—

Projection vs line49 vs 60.5 (−11.5) · avg 47.4

Role · share6.8 tgt (21%)

Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (215 allowed W1) · line 60.5 → 60.5

Median 49 against 60.5 (−11.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 6.8 tgt (21%). Week 1: 53. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (215 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 60.5 → 60.5. WR/CB −0.13 vs Flott.

WR2PHINO PLAY

Dontayvion Wicks

Wicks U29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line10.5 vs 29.5 (−19.0) · avg 27.6

Role · share3.2 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 36

Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (215 allowed W1) · line 26.5 → 29.5

Median 10.5 against 29.5 (−19.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 64% of 2025. 3.2 tgt (11%). Week 1: 73. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (215 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 26.5 → 29.5. WR/CB −0.12 vs A. Taylor.

WR3PHIWATCH

Makai Lemon

Lemon O/U 23.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 23.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share3 rec on 4 tgt (W1) — rookie

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (215 allowed W1) · opened 24.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

RBPHINO PLAY

Saquon Barkley

Barkley O79.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line80.5 vs 79.5 (+1.0) · avg 81

Role · share19.4 att (64%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 35

Opponent · lineopp rank 26 (152 allowed W1) · line 77.5 → 79.5

Median 80.5 against 79.5 (+1.0); over in 50% of the last ten and 35% of 2025. 19.4 att (64%). Week 1: 83. Opponent rank 26 on the stat (152 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 77.5 → 79.5.

TEPHIWATCH

Dallas Goedert

Goedert U38.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line32.5 vs 38.5 (−6.0) · avg 41.2

Role · share5.5 tgt (18%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 31

Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (215 allowed W1) · line 41.5 → 38.5

Median 32.5 against 38.5 (−6.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 69% of 2025. 5.5 tgt (18%). Week 1: 77. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (215 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 41.5 → 38.5.

QBTENWATCH

Cam Ward

Ward U186.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—

Projection vs line157.5 vs 186.5 (−29.0) · avg 169.4

Role · share71% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 53

Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (163 allowed W1) · line 198.5 → 186.5

Median 157.5 against 186.5 (−29.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 71% pass. Week 1: 140. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (163 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 198.5 → 186.5.

WR1TENWATCH

Carnell Tate

Tate O/U 41.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 41.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share4 rec on 6 tgt (W1) — rookie

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (164 allowed W1) · opened 41.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR2TENWATCH

Wan'Dale Robinson

Robinson O37.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line47 vs 37.5 (+9.5) · avg 60.6

Role · share9.3 tgt (29%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 63

Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (164 allowed W1) · line 35.5 → 37.5

29% of Tennessee's targets and a 47 median on 37.5 — into Philadelphia's 6th-ranked coverage (W1) and −0.19 vs DeJean; Conflicts. Median 47 against 37.5 (+9.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. 9.3 tgt (29%). Week 1: 38. Opponent rank 6 on the stat (164 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 35.5 → 37.5. WR/CB −0.19 vs DeJean.

Opp rank the wrong way

WR3TENWATCH

Calvin Ridley

Ridley O/U 19.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 19.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share1.8 rec on 3 tgt

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (164 allowed W1) · opened 19.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

RBTENPLAY

Tony Pollard

Pollard O41.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.0−110

Projection vs line58 vs 41.5 (+16.5) · avg 69.3

Role · share14 att (61%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 76

Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (132 allowed W1) · line 45.5 → 41.5

A 58 median and a 69-yard average against 41.5 — seven of ten over, four of the last five, 76% of 2025 — on 61% of Tennessee's carries. Philadelphia allowed 152 rushing yards in Week 1 (26th), one game. The line dropped four from the open after a 35-yard opener; the script is a seven-point home dog in 100-degree heat that will run to shorten the game. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): 41.5 holds at −113 (from −110).

61% share, 14 carries100°F — the run game shortens the game35 in W141.5 holds

TETENNO PLAY

Gunnar Helm

Helm O22.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.0—

Projection vs line23 vs 22.5 (+0.5) · avg 23.6

Role · share3.9 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (164 allowed W1) · line 21.5 → 22.5

Median 23 against 22.5 (+0.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 3.9 tgt (11%). Week 1: 28. Opponent rank 6 on the stat (164 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 21.5 → 22.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

Browns @ Buccaneers — Week 2

1:00 PM ET · CBS

Venue

Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

87°F, thunderstorm risk 68% from 3 PM (forecast 1:24 AM ET) — a second-half weather delay is possible

Line

TB -8.5 (+108) on our data platform · +8.5 everywhere (−109 on the platform)

Total

41.5 · opened 40.75, Nevada 41.5

⚡ THE JUICE. Cleveland scored 10 points and converted 12.5% of third downs in Week 1 (32nd) and now starts Deshaun Watson with Gabriel on IR; the number moved from 7.5 to 8.5 toward Tampa Bay with both books' money (83/80 public; 79/67 market-maker). The three ratings have Tampa Bay by 6.6–7.7 — a point and a half of Cleveland — and the systems agree with the ratings: both 0-1 ATS → dogs (30-15-2), lost by double digits → 53-30-3 ATS, Tampa Bay 39-58 ATS at home and as a favorite since 2014, and the 77%+-handle-on-a-6.5+-favorite fade (13-25). The rookie-head-coach big-dog system fades Cleveland (48.4%). Thunderstorms at 68% from 3 PM. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): CLE offense (W1): 10 ppg (T28th), 12.5% 3rd down (32nd), 0% RZ (T30th). TB defense: 33 ppg allowed (24th), 57% 3rd-down D (27th), 245 pass allowed (24th). Injuries: CLE: QB Dillon Gabriel IR (back) — Deshaun Watson starts; RB Dylan Sampson IR, G Teven Jenkins OUT, LB Owusu-Koramoah OUT, CB Tyson Campbell Q. TB: WR Jalen McMillan Q (knee), S Killebrew Q (concussion), CB Parrish Q.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: CLE 17% of the spread money on 20% of tickets; Over 79% $ / 65% tix; moneyline TB 91% $ / 96% tix. The market-maker: CLE 21% $ / 33% tix; Over 51% $ / 43% tix; moneyline TB 99% $ / 90% tix. Tracker: opened -7.4, now -8.5 (home line) — +8.5 everywhere (−109 on the platform); total opened 40.75, now 41.5. Three rating systems (home line): -6.6 / -7.7 / -6.7 vs the market -8.5; projected totals 43.0 / 40.1 vs 41.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Both 0-1 ATS → dogs ON Cleveland (Grade 63); Lost by double digits in W1 → ON Cleveland (Grade 65); Rookie HC big dog (6+) → 48.4% FADE Cleveland; Splits #4 ON Tampa Bay · #6 77%+ handle on 6.5+ favorite → FADE Tampa Bay · #11/#12 Over trap → UNDER instead; Tampa Bay 39-58 ATS at home and as a favorite since 2014. The network's expert room: Buccaneers −8 ×1 + teasers ×3; Browns 0.

🎯 STAY AWAY — Cleveland +8.5 printed as a model-and-systems lean with no money layer. Thursday's ledger row says that shape does not publish; it did not on Thursday and it does not here. The total: two Over-trap splits systems and a 7-0 Under in the series against the public's Over — printed for the Under, not published.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card

QBCLEWATCH

Deshaun Watson

Watson O/U 175.5 pass yds—

Projection vs line— vs 175.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share27 pass plays (55%), 16 comp — starts for Gabriel (IR)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (234 allowed W1) · opened 199.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR1CLEWATCH

KC Concepcion Jr.

Concepcion O/U 32.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 32.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share4 rec on 5 tgt (W1)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 24 (254 allowed W1) · opened 32.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR2CLEWATCH

Denzel Boston

Boston O/U 30.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 30.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share2 rec on 4 tgt (W1)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 24 (254 allowed W1) · opened 31.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR3CLENO PLAY

Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy U29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line26 vs 29.5 (−3.5) · avg 37.1

Role · share5.6 tgt (18%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 24 (254 allowed W1) · line 25.5 → 29.5

Median 26 against 29.5 (−3.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 5.6 tgt (18%). Week 1: 26. Opponent rank 24 on the stat (254 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 25.5 → 29.5. WR/CB +0.14 vs McCollum. QB change — Watson starts.

QB change — Watson starts

RBCLENO PLAY

Quinshon Judkins

Judkins U47.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line40 vs 47.5 (−7.5) · avg 47.7

Role · share15.8 att (62%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 57

Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (106 allowed W1) · line 40.5 → 47.5

Median 40 against 47.5 (−7.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 43% of 2025. 15.8 att (62%). Week 1: 33. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (106 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 40.5 → 47.5. QB change — Watson starts.

QB change — Watson starts

TECLENO PLAY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Fannin O35.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line41.5 vs 35.5 (+6.0) · avg 46.2

Role · share6.7 tgt (21%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 63

Opponent · lineopp rank 24 (254 allowed W1) · line 36.5 → 35.5

Median 41.5 against 35.5 (+6.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. 6.7 tgt (21%). Week 1: 21. Opponent rank 24 on the stat (254 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 36.5 → 35.5. QB change — Watson starts.

QB change — Watson starts

QBTBWATCH

Baker Mayfield

Mayfield U215.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line198.5 vs 215.5 (−17.0) · avg 199

Role · share62% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (234 allowed W1) · line 229.5 → 215.5

Median 198.5 against 215.5 (−17.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 62% pass. Week 1: 216. Opponent rank 23 on the stat (234 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 229.5 → 215.5.

WR1TBWATCH

Emeka Egbuka

Egbuka U52.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line40 vs 52.5 (−12.5) · avg 43.9

Role · share7 tgt (20%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 41

Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (245 allowed W1) · line 56.5 → 52.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 40 against 52.5 (−12.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 59% of 2025. 7 tgt (20%). Week 1: 63. Opponent rank 23 on the stat (245 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 56.5 → 52.5. WR/CB −0.03 vs D. Ward.

WR2TBWATCH

Chris Godwin Jr.

Godwin U43.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line28 vs 43.5 (−15.5) · avg 40

Role · share5.5 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (245 allowed W1) · line 45.5 → 43.5

Median 28 against 43.5 (−15.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 5.5 tgt (16%). Week 1: 40. Opponent rank 23 on the stat (245 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 45.5 → 43.5. WR/CB +0.08 vs Harden.

WR3TBWATCH

Jalen McMillan

McMillan O/U 23.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 23.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share3 rec on 3.8 tgt — Questionable (knee)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (245 allowed W1) · opened 23.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads. Questionable (knee)

Short sample — WATCHQuestionable (knee)

RBTBNO PLAY

Bucky Irving

Irving U64.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line62 vs 64.5 (−2.5) · avg 59.6

Role · share16.7 att (58%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 40

Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (126 allowed W1) · line 60.5 → 64.5

Median 62 against 64.5 (−2.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. 16.7 att (58%). Week 1: 45. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (126 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 60.5 → 64.5.

TETBNO PLAY

Cade Otton

Otton U27.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—

Projection vs line27 vs 27.5 (−0.5) · avg 36.7

Role · share5.5 tgt (17%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (245 allowed W1) · line 31.5 → 27.5

Median 27 against 27.5 (−0.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 5.5 tgt (17%). Week 1: 26. Opponent rank 23 on the stat (245 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 31.5 → 27.5.

Bengals @ Texans — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET1:00 PM ET · CBS

Venue

NRG Stadium · Houston, TX · Dome

Weather at kickoff

Dome (NRG)

Line

HOU -2.5 (−113) on our data platform · Bengals +2.5 (+111) on the platform and at all five Nevada books · +3 at the public book this morning — the best number

Total

45.5 · opened 46.9 · 45.5 at four Nevada books and on the platform, 46 at Wynn

⚡ THE JUICE. Inactives pass, Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET — what changed since 10:52 AM: Joe Burrow is ACTIVE and started (league box-score feed, read 2:07 PM ET, 2nd quarter) — the condition on Cincinnati +2.5 and Higgins O55.5 is resolved; both legs are live and grade as published (+104 and −112). Our data platform was dark at 2:04–2:05 PM, so no board prices are refreshed in this pass. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Joe Burrow is still Questionable (back soreness) at 10:46 AM — no downgrade, no upgrade; the 11:30 inactives decide the leg. Nico Collins is confirmed OUT for Houston. The public book moved its number to Cincinnati +3 (40% of the money on 47% of tickets); the market-maker stayed at +2.5 with Cincinnati at 69% of its dollars on 31% of its tickets (+38, SHARP). The platform's price improved to +111 (published +104). Tee Higgins' 55.5 holds (−113). The verdict's condition is unchanged: this leg comes off if Burrow is inactive; it grades as published if he plays. Joe Burrow is Questionable with back soreness, and that tag is the card's biggest open question — the lean below comes off if he is scratched. With him: the market-maker's dollars are 80% Cincinnati on 36% of tickets (+44, CONTRARIAN against 64% Houston tickets), the ratings have Houston by 1.3–2.4 (a half-point of Cincinnati at +2.5), and the systems stack up: Cincinnati is a small road dog off a Week-1 loss (26-6 ATS), Houston is a home favorite in its second straight home game (6-19 ATS) off a close Week-1 loss (5-17 ATS), Burrow is 18-2 ATS as a +3-to-7 dog and 16-3 against elite offenses, Cincinnati is 77-48 ATS on the road, and road teams are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Houston is without Nico Collins (hamstring) and Clowney; its defense allowed 36 points and 8.0 a play in Week 1. The total is a war between two sharp Unders (99% of the market-maker's money on 75% of tickets; 55% of the public book's on 28%) and the loudest model Over on the board (the ratings project 49.7–50.9 against 45.5; the totals model has the Over at a 7.8% edge). The matchup tab (Week 1 only): CIN offense (W1): 33 ppg (7th), 57% 3rd down (5th), 26 first downs (T3rd), 245 pass (10th). HOU defense: 36 ppg allowed (27th), 323 pass allowed (30th), 8.0 ypp allowed (T31st), 33% RZ (T5th). Injuries: CIN: QB Joe Burrow Q (back soreness, Wed), DT B.J. Hill Q. HOU: WR Nico Collins OUT (hamstring), DE Clowney OUT, G Ed Ingram OUT, LB Hummel OUT, LB Speed OUT, S Stewart OUT; WRs Dell/Higgins IR.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: CIN 41% of the spread money on 48% of tickets; Over 45% $ / 72% tix; moneyline HOU 68% $ / 58% tix. The market-maker: CIN 80% $ / 36% tix; Over 1% $ / 25% tix; moneyline CIN 99% $ / 80% tix. Tracker: opened -2.6, now -2.5 (home line) — +2.5 everywhere (+104 on the platform; +3 opened at the market-maker); total opened 46.9, now 45.5. Three rating systems (home line): -2.4 / -2.4 / -1.3 vs the market -2.5; projected totals 50.9 / 49.7 vs 45.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Small road dog off a W1 loss → 26-6 ATS (Grade 75) ON Cincinnati; Second straight home game and favored → 6-19 ATS (Grade 70) FADE Houston; W1 close loss at home → 5-17 ATS (Grade 68) FADE Houston; Won a 50+-point W1 game → UNDER 34-18; Splits #5 ON Cincinnati · #8 ON Cincinnati · #9 OVER (bets majority); Burrow 18-2 ATS as a +3-to-7 dog; 16-3 vs elite offenses; CIN 77-48 ATS road; Ryans 12-4 Under as home fav. The network's expert room: Texans −2.5/−3 ×5; Bengals +2.5 ×1; Under 46/46.5 ×5; Over 46.5 ×1 (totals model).

🎯 CINCINNATI +2.5 (+104 on the platform; +3 opened at the market-maker) — conviction 56, conditional on Burrow starting. Sharp dollars, a ratings edge, and five record-backed systems on the same side. Argument against: the tag itself, Houston's 12-4 Under run as a home favorite says the Texans win low-scoring games, and the public book's cash is mildly Houston. The total is a STAY AWAY — money and model cannot disagree harder than they do here. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — Cincinnati +2.5 holds 56, conditional as published. The sharp layer got sharper overnight (+38 at the market-maker) and the public book handed out +3 — if you have not bet it, +3 at the public book is the number, and +2.5 at +111 on the platform is the price. If Burrow is scratched at 11:30, the leg and Higgins O55.5 are VOID by the card's own rule and we say so in the grade. Collins OUT for Houston is a small plus for the dog. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET): Burrow active — Cincinnati +2.5 (56) and Higgins O55.5 stand exactly as published, no re-size: the read was conditional on the quarterback and the quarterback played. Nothing else on this game changes.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card

QBCINWATCH

Joe Burrow

Burrow O/U 249.5 pass yds—

Projection vs line— vs 249.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share38.6 pass plays (58%), 25.6 comp

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (334 allowed W1) · opened 250.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): Questionable, unchanged; inactives at 11:30. If OUT: Bengals +2.5 and Higgins O55.5 are VOID by the card's rule. Inactives (2:07 PM ET): ACTIVE, started. Bengals +2.5 and Higgins O55.5 are live.

Short sample — WATCHQ — 11:30 inactivesACTIVE

WR1CINWATCH

Ja'Marr Chase

Chase O75.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line93.5 vs 75.5 (+18.0) · avg 79.5

Role · share10.9 tgt (27%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 63

Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (334 allowed W1) · line 70.5 → 75.5

93.5 median, 27% share, Houston 30th — and 12 yards last week with a Questionable quarterback; Higgins carries the Cincinnati read. Median 93.5 against 75.5 (+18.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. 10.9 tgt (27%). Week 1: 12. Opponent rank 30 on the stat (334 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 70.5 → 75.5. WR/CB −0.15 vs Lassiter. QB Burrow Questionable (back).

QB Burrow Questionable (back)

WR2CINPLAY

Tee Higgins

Higgins O55.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0−112

Projection vs line61 vs 55.5 (+5.5) · avg 68.5

Role · share6.9 tgt (17%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 53

Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (334 allowed W1) · line 50.5 → 55.5

Seven of ten over 55.5 with a 61 median, 67 and 59 in his last two, into a Houston secondary that allowed 334 receiving yards in Week 1 (30th) — the exceed-side read is the matchup and the 17% share behind Chase. Two things dock it: Burrow is Questionable with a back, which caps the leg at 6.0 and voids it if he sits, and the WR/CB tool has Higgins at −0.19 against Stingley. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): 55.5 holds (−113). Cap 6.0 stands while Burrow is Questionable; VOID if he sits. Inactives (2:07 PM ET): Burrow active — leg is live at the published 55.5 (−112); the 6.0 cap was the Q tag's and stays on the record as scored.

HOU 30th vs rec yds (W1)Burrow Q — cappedWR/CB −0.19 vs Stingley55.5 holdsBurrow Q — cap 6.0Burrow ACTIVE — leg live

WR3CINNO PLAY

Andrei Iosivas

Iosivas O14.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line20.5 vs 14.5 (+6.0) · avg 27.7

Role · share3.7 tgt (9%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 59

Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (334 allowed W1) · line 16.5 → 14.5

Median 20.5 against 14.5 (+6.0); over in 70% of the last ten and 59% of 2025. 3.7 tgt (9%). Week 1: 12. Opponent rank 30 on the stat (334 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 16.5 → 14.5. WR/CB −0.14 vs Pitre. QB Burrow Questionable.

QB Burrow Questionable

RBCINWATCH

Chase Brown

Brown O55.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line69 vs 55.5 (+13.5) · avg 69.2

Role · share15.1 att (59%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (86 allowed W1) · line 50.5 → 55.5

69 median on 55.5 — into Houston's 8th-ranked run defense (W1, wrong way) with a Questionable quarterback; Conflicts. Median 69 against 55.5 (+13.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 15.1 att (59%). Week 1: 56. Opponent rank 8 on the stat (86 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 50.5 → 55.5. QB Burrow Questionable.

Opp rank the wrong wayQB Burrow Questionable

TECINNO PLAY

Mike Gesicki

Gesicki O24.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—

Projection vs line27 vs 24.5 (+2.5) · avg 33.9

Role · share3.8 tgt (9%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 31

Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (334 allowed W1) · line 24.5 → 24.5

Median 27 against 24.5 (+2.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 31% of 2025. 3.8 tgt (9%). Week 1: 78. Opponent rank 30 on the stat (334 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 24.5 → 24.5. QB Burrow Questionable.

QB Burrow Questionable

QBHOUNO PLAY

C.J. Stroud

Stroud O218.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line228 vs 218.5 (+9.5) · avg 215.4

Role · share56% pass

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (193 allowed W1) · line 229.5 → 218.5

Median 228 against 218.5 (+9.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 56% pass. Week 1: 274. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (193 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 229.5 → 218.5.

WR1HOUNO PLAY

Nico Collins

Collins O79.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line80 vs 79.5 (+0.5) · avg 79.9

Role · share8 tgt (22%) — OUT (hamstring)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 63

Opponent · lineopp rank 19 (216 allowed W1) · line 72.5 → 79.5

Median 80 against 79.5 (+0.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. 8 tgt (22%) — OUT (hamstring). Week 1: 75. Opponent rank 19 on the stat (216 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 72.5 → 79.5. OUT (hamstring).

OUT (hamstring)

WR2HOUNO PLAY

Kayshon Boutte

Boutte U35.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line22.5 vs 35.5 (−13.0) · avg 30.9

Role · share3.7 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 39

Opponent · lineopp rank 19 (216 allowed W1) · line 20.5 → 35.5

Median 22.5 against 35.5 (−13.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 61% of 2025. 3.7 tgt (11%). Week 1: 21. Opponent rank 19 on the stat (216 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 20.5 → 35.5. WR/CB −0.24 vs DJ Turner. Collins OUT — targets move.

Collins OUT — targets moveWR/CB against

WR3HOUNO PLAY

Xavier Hutchinson

Hutchinson U29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—

Projection vs line21 vs 29.5 (−8.5) · avg 26.1

Role · share4.6 tgt (13%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 37

Opponent · lineopp rank 19 (216 allowed W1) · line 27.5 → 29.5

Median 21 against 29.5 (−8.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. 4.6 tgt (13%). Week 1: 32. Opponent rank 19 on the stat (216 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 27.5 → 29.5. WR/CB −0.24 vs Daxton Hill. Collins OUT — targets move.

Collins OUT — targets moveWR/CB against

RBHOUWATCH

David Montgomery

Montgomery U63.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 8.0—

Projection vs line32 vs 63.5 (−31.5) · avg 38.1

Role · share8.9 att (36%)

Hit windowsL10 10 · L5 0 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 18

Opponent · lineopp rank 10 (89 allowed W1) · line 58.5 → 63.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 32 against 63.5 (−31.5); under in 90% of the last ten and 82% of 2025. 8.9 att (36%). Week 1: 60. Opponent rank 10 on the stat (89 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 58.5 → 63.5.

TEHOUNO PLAY

Dalton Schultz

Schultz U45.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line35 vs 45.5 (−10.5) · avg 38.2

Role · share5.2 tgt (15%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 19 (216 allowed W1) · line 34.5 → 45.5

Median 35 against 45.5 (−10.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 5.2 tgt (15%). Week 1: 35. Opponent rank 19 on the stat (216 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 34.5 → 45.5. Collins OUT — targets move.

Collins OUT — targets move

Panthers @ Falcons — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET1:00 PM ET · FOX

Venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA · Dome

Weather at kickoff

Dome (Mercedes-Benz)

Line

ATL +2.5 (+105) on our data platform · Falcons +2.5 at four Nevada books (+100) · +3 (−120) at Wynn · Panthers −2.5 −120 at the market-maker

Total

43.5 · opened 44.1 · 43.5 at four Nevada books and on the platform, 43 at Boomers

⚡ THE JUICE. Inactives pass, Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET — what changed since 10:52 AM: Tua Tagovailoa is OUT (from Doubtful) and Cooper Rush started, exactly as priced; A.J. Terrell is ACTIVE (league box-score feed, 2:07 PM ET, 2nd quarter). Nothing about the number or the money changes here — the platform was dark at 2:04–2:05 PM, so the 10:45 AM splits are the last read. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Tua Tagovailoa is still Doubtful, Michael Penix OUT — Cooper Rush starts, as priced; A.J. Terrell is still Questionable. The number is 2.5 with Wynn at 3 (−120), and the money is the problem: both books have Carolina by dollars — the public book 77% of the money on 80% of tickets, the market-maker 94% of its dollars on 78% of its tickets. That is a CONTRARIAN ticket count against us with no sharp support: the sharp dollars are on the other side at both books. Printed as the dissent it is. The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. Atlanta has lost both quarterbacks: Michael Penix is out for the season (ACL) and Tua Tagovailoa is Doubtful with an oblique — Cooper Rush, a career backup, is in line to start. The number moved from Atlanta −1 / Carolina +1.5 at the open to Carolina −2.5, and every dollar on the spread is Carolina (97% at the market-maker, 68% on 80% of tickets at the public book). Two things point the other way. The hand-tuned rating, which already adjusts for the OUT and the Doubtful, has Atlanta by 0.8 — the three ratings average Carolina by 0.6, two points of Atlanta at +2.5. And the moneyline money at the public book is 82% Atlanta on 19% of tickets. The systems: underdogs are 10-2 ATS in this series since 2020, both teams are 0-1 ATS (dogs 30-15-2), Carolina scored 30+ in Week 1 and is now a short favorite (23-38 ATS), Carolina is 16-35 ATS as a favorite with twelve straight outright losses in the role — against Carolina's lost-by-double-digits-at-home system (28-9) and Atlanta's retread-coach fades. Carolina is missing both starting tackles (Ekwonu, Moton) and two defensive tackles. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): CAR offense (W1): 37 ppg (5th), 353 pass (T2nd), 7.8 ypp (T3rd), 3 TO (T29th). ATL defense: 20 ppg (T10th), 58 rush allowed (1st), 4.0 ypp (T3rd), 23% 3rd-down D (8th). Injuries: ATL: QB Michael Penix OUT (ACL), QB Tua Tagovailoa DOUBTFUL (oblique) — Cooper Rush in line to start; CB A.J. Terrell Q (shoulder), CB Billy Bowman OUT, G Lindstrom Q (concussion). CAR: T Ikem Ekwonu OUT, T Taylor Moton OUT (illness), DT Wharton OUT, DT Bobby Brown OUT, OLB Patrick Jones Q; WR Brazzell IR.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: CAR 68% of the spread money on 80% of tickets; Over 94% $ / 76% tix; moneyline ATL 82% $ / 19% tix. The market-maker: CAR 97% $ / 86% tix; Over 23% $ / 40% tix; moneyline CAR 99% $ / 67% tix. Tracker: opened +1.1, now +2.5 (home line) — Falcons +2.5 everywhere (+108 on the platform; +2.5 −102 at Caesars); total opened 44.1, now 43.5. Three rating systems (home line): -0.8 / +0.7 / +2.0 vs the market +2.5; projected totals 44.1 / 41.7 vs 43.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Underdogs 10-2 ATS in CAR-ATL since 2020 ON Atlanta; Scored 30+ in W1, now favored ≤6 → 23-38 ATS FADE Carolina; Both 0-1 ATS → dogs 30-15-2 ON Atlanta (Grade 63); Lost by double digits in W1 (home/neutral) → 28-9 ATS (Grade 70) ON Carolina · scored 35+ ON Carolina; Retread coach at home ON Atlanta; retread off a loss / first-8 FADE Atlanta; Splits #2/#3 divisional majority FADE Carolina · #11 74%+ Over handle → UNDER instead; Carolina 16-35 ATS as a favorite (12 straight SU losses as a favorite); Atlanta 23-41 ATS at home. The network's expert room: Panthers −2/ML ×2; Falcons +8.5 (stale) ×1; Over 44 ×1.

🎯 ATLANTA +2.5 (+108 on the platform; +2.5 −102 at Caesars) — conviction 53. A model edge of two, a sharp moneyline split, and four systems on a dog that just lost its quarterback — the market moved three and a half points on Cooper Rush and the rating that already priced Rush says it moved too far. Argument against: the spread money is unanimous the other way at both books, and backup quarterbacks lose by more than the ratings say. The Under 43.5 (market-maker 77% of dollars on 60% of tickets; the public's Over at 76% of tickets; two Under systems; a backup quarterback) printed at 53, not published — it is the fourth Under on the card and the cap is three. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — Atlanta +2.5 re-sized 53 → 48; grades at +108 as published. We published this on the ratings (the tuned system already priced a backup quarterback) with the public against it; this morning the market-maker's dollars are 94% Carolina, so the leg has a model layer and no money layer — the shape the ledger's Sep 18 rule says not to publish. It stays because it is published and grades at its price; the number comes down to say so. Argument for: +3 at −120 at Wynn is the field-goal hook, and Rush was priced in three days ago. Argument against: everything with a dollar sign. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET): Atlanta +2.5 stays at 48 and grades at +108 — the backup quarterback was the published assumption, and Terrell playing is the small plus the secondary needed. The money-layer dissent (both books' dollars on Carolina) is unchanged and still the majority of the evidence.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card

QBCARWATCH

Bryce Young

Young U222.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line198.5 vs 222.5 (−24.0) · avg 224.6

Role · share65% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 24

Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (206 allowed W1) · line 211.5 → 222.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 198.5 against 222.5 (−24.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 76% of 2025. 65% pass. Week 1: 361. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (206 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 211.5 → 222.5.

WR1CARWATCH

Tetairoa McMillan

McMillan O59.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line66.5 vs 59.5 (+7.0) · avg 61.2

Role · share6.8 tgt (21%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 56

Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (221 allowed W1) · line 61.5 → 59.5

Median 66.5 against 59.5 (+7.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 6.8 tgt (21%). Week 1: 75. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (221 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 61.5 → 59.5. WR/CB +0.05 vs A.J. Terrell (Q).

WR2CARNO PLAY

Jalen Coker

Coker U50.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—

Projection vs line49.5 vs 50.5 (−1.0) · avg 62.1

Role · share5.7 tgt (17%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (221 allowed W1) · line 45.5 → 50.5

Median 49.5 against 50.5 (−1.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 5.7 tgt (17%). Week 1: 138. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (221 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 45.5 → 50.5. WR/CB +0.11 vs Av. Terrell.

WR3CARNO PLAY

Xavier Legette

Legette U16.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line10 vs 16.5 (−6.5) · avg 19

Role · share3.3 tgt (10%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (221 allowed W1) · line 18.5 → 16.5

Median 10 against 16.5 (−6.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 3.3 tgt (10%). Week 1: 0. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (221 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 18.5 → 16.5. WR/CB +0.12 vs M. Hughes.

RBCARWATCH

Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard U54.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 8.0—

Projection vs line24 vs 54.5 (−30.5) · avg 30.7

Role · share7.3 att (31%)

Hit windowsL10 10 · L5 0 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 19

Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (58 allowed W1) · line 52.5 → 54.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 24 against 54.5 (−30.5); under in 90% of the last ten and 81% of 2025. 7.3 att (31%). Week 1: 49. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (58 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 52.5 → 54.5.

TECARNO PLAY

Darren Waller

Waller O18.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—

Projection vs line27.5 vs 18.5 (+9.0) · avg 31.1

Role · share3.6 tgt (12%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 56

Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (221 allowed W1) · line 17.5 → 18.5

Median 27.5 against 18.5 (+9.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 3.6 tgt (12%). Week 1: 28. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (221 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 17.5 → 18.5.

QBATLWATCH

Cooper Rush

Rush O/U 183.5 pass yds—

Projection vs line— vs 183.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share9.2 comp on 14 att a game as a backup — starts for Penix (OUT) / Tua (Doubtful)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (206 allowed W1) · opened 185.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR1ATLWATCH

Drake London

London O56.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line91 vs 56.5 (+34.5) · avg 78.9

Role · share9 tgt (28%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 25 (269 allowed W1) · line 55.5 → 56.5

Median 91 against 56.5 (+34.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 9 tgt (28%). Week 1: 29. Opponent rank 25 on the stat (269 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 55.5 → 56.5. WR/CB −0.04 vs J. Horn. QB change — Cooper Rush starts.

QB change — Cooper Rush starts

WR2ATLNO PLAY

Jahan Dotson

Dotson U17.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line7.5 vs 17.5 (−10.0) · avg 13

Role · share2.6 tgt (8%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 28

Opponent · lineopp rank 25 (269 allowed W1) · line 19.5 → 17.5

Median 7.5 against 17.5 (−10.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 72% of 2025. 2.6 tgt (8%). Week 1: 19. Opponent rank 25 on the stat (269 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 19.5 → 17.5. WR/CB −0.09 vs M. Jackson.

Opp rank the wrong way

WR3ATLNO PLAY

Olamide Zaccheaus

Zaccheaus U7.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.5—

Projection vs line6.5 vs 7.5 (−1.0) · avg 8.7

Role · share2 tgt (6%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 67

Opponent · lineopp rank 25 (269 allowed W1) · line None → 7.5

Median 6.5 against 7.5 (−1.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 33% of 2025. 2 tgt (6%). Week 1: 5. Opponent rank 25 on the stat (269 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. WR/CB +0.03 vs Moehrig.

Opp rank the wrong way

RBATLWATCH

Bijan Robinson

Robinson O83.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line85 vs 83.5 (+1.5) · avg 96.6

Role · share19 att (64%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (291 allowed W1) · line 79.5 → 83.5

Carolina allowed 291 rushing yards in Week 1 and Atlanta starts a backup quarterback — the exceed-side story is right and the windows (60% / 47%) are not, so it is a WATCH. Median 85 against 83.5 (+1.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 19 att (64%). Week 1: 83. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (291 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 79.5 → 83.5. QB change — Cooper Rush starts.

QB change — Cooper Rush starts

TEATLWATCH

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Pitts O31.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line47.5 vs 31.5 (+16.0) · avg 54.6

Role · share6.5 tgt (21%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 76

Opponent · lineopp rank 25 (269 allowed W1) · line 34.5 → 31.5

47.5 median on 31.5 and 21% of targets — with a new quarterback and a zero last week. Median 47.5 against 31.5 (+16.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 76% of 2025. 6.5 tgt (21%). Week 1: 0. Opponent rank 25 on the stat (269 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 34.5 → 31.5. QB change — Cooper Rush starts.

QB change — Cooper Rush starts

Raiders @ Chargers — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET4:05 PM ET · CBS

Venue

SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA · Covered

Weather at kickoff

SoFi Stadium (covered)

Line

LAC -6.5 (−104) on our data platform · Raiders +6.5 at all seven Nevada books read (−105 at the market-maker, +100 at BetMGM)

Total

43.5 · 43.5 everywhere (Under −100 on the platform, −107 at Caesars)

⚡ THE JUICE. Late-window pass, Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET — what changed since 2:38 PM: McConkey is off the injury report (active); Bowers still Doubtful; O'Connell OUT (league feed 2:49 PM). Money at 2:58 PM: the market-maker's total dollars are 97% UNDER on 50% of tickets (+47, SHARP); the public book's Over is 66% of the money on 60% of tickets (a public Over). Side: the market-maker has Las Vegas at 64% of its dollars on 60% of tickets (+4 — a lean, still short of SHARP); the public book 41/47. Inactives pass, Sun Sep 20 · 2:38 PM ET — what changed since 10:52 AM: Nothing new in the feed at 2:37 PM ET — Brock Bowers still Doubtful, Ladd McConkey still Questionable, O'Connell OUT; the official 4:05 inactives had not posted to the league feed when we read it, and the data platform was dark, so no price moved on our display. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Brock Bowers is still Doubtful (knee); Aidan O'Connell is OUT (personal); Ladd McConkey is still Questionable (ribs). Neither number moved. The total's money: the public book has the Over at 60% of the money on 69% of tickets (tickets ahead of dollars — a public Over); the market-maker has the UNDER at 98% of its dollars on 57% of tickets (+41, SHARP). The two books disagree by dollars, but the public book's Over is a ticket lean, not a money lean — the sharp side is the Under, and it is ours. The side: the market-maker has the Raiders at 64% of its dollars on 56% of tickets (+8 — a lean, a point short of the SHARP threshold); the public book 41/46. The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. Brock Bowers is Doubtful (knee) and the market-maker's dollars are 91% Las Vegas on 60% of tickets (+31) anyway; the public book is a mild Chargers lean (58/51). The three ratings have the Chargers by 2.1–7.4 — an average of 4.5 against a 6.5, two points of Raiders. The systems are a pile-up on both sides: Las Vegas is a small road dog off a Week-1 loss (26-6) but a veteran-quarterback team on the road (32-50) and off a win (26-40-1) with a rookie head coach as a big dog (48.4%); the Chargers are a second-straight-home favorite (6-19 ATS, Grade 70) but a Week-1 favorite of 6+ that lost (20-6 ATS, Grade 70) and a team that lost by double digits at home (28-9, Grade 70), with Harbaugh 30-14 ATS as a −3-to-−7 favorite. The total is the cleaner read: both books' Under money (91% on 62% at the market-maker, +29; 47% on 34% at the public book, +13), all three ratings under the 43.5 (39.7–42.1), the veteran-quarterback September Under, Las Vegas 23-6 Under as a divisional road dog, the Chargers 33-15 Under on Sundays and 13-3 Under as a divisional home favorite, and a Doubtful tag on the Raiders' best receiver. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): LV offense (W1): 27 ppg (T13th), 130 rush (9th), 160 pass (27th), 4.3 ypp (26th), 0 sacks allowed (T1st). LAC defense: 26 ppg allowed (17th), 277 pass allowed (27th), 40% RZ (T8th). Injuries: LV: TE Brock Bowers DOUBTFUL (knee), CB Darien Porter OUT, QB O'Connell Q (personal). LAC: WR Ladd McConkey Q (ribs), T Trey Pipkins OUT, DB Molden OUT, DB Leonard Q; C Biadasz IR.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: LV 42% of the spread money on 49% of tickets; Over 53% $ / 66% tix; moneyline LAC 91% $ / 80% tix. The market-maker: LV 91% $ / 60% tix; Over 9% $ / 38% tix; moneyline LAC 88% $ / 25% tix. Tracker: opened -7.2, now -6.5 (home line) — +6.5 everywhere (+102 on the platform); total opened 44.5, now 43.5. Three rating systems (home line): -4.0 / -7.4 / -2.1 vs the market -6.5; projected totals 42.1 / 39.7 vs 43.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Small road dog off a W1 loss → 26-6 ATS ON Las Vegas; Second straight home game and favored → 6-19 ATS FADE Chargers; W1 favorite of 6+ that lost → 20-6 ATS (77%, Grade 70) ON Chargers · lost by double digits at home → 28-9 ON Chargers; Veteran QB new team (Cousins) on the road 32-50 FADE Las Vegas; off a win FADE Las Vegas · rookie HC big dog FADE Las Vegas; Veteran-QB September UNDER; LV 23-6 Under as div road dog; LAC 33-15 Under Sundays, 13-3 Under as div home fav, Harbaugh 13-2 Under vs elite D; Splits #2/#3 divisional majority FADE Las Vegas · #8 ON Las Vegas; Harbaugh 30-14 ATS as a −3 to −7 favorite; Herbert 9-2-1 off a double-digit loss. The network's expert room: Raiders +7/ML ×3; Chargers −6.5 ×3; Over 43.5 ×1.

🎯 UNDER 43.5 (−102 on the platform) — conviction 57, the card's top total. LAS VEGAS +6.5 (+102) — conviction 53. The Under is the one total on the slate with money, model and systems all on one side. The side has the market-maker's dollars and the model against a systems net that leans Chargers — it publishes at the bottom of the band because two of the three layers are there, and the Grade-70 Chargers systems are the printed dissent. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — Under 43.5 holds 57; Las Vegas +6.5 holds 53. The Under got the strongest sharp read on the card this morning (98% of the market-maker's dollars) with Bowers Doubtful and O'Connell out; the Over side at the public book is tickets, not money, and we print that rather than call it a book disagreement. The side is unchanged: a sharp lean short of the threshold, two points of ratings, and the systems against — 53 is where it stays. Best numbers: 43.5 at −100 on the platform; +6.5 at +103. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 2:38 PM ET): Under 43.5 holds 57 and Las Vegas +6.5 holds 53. Bowers sitting is already the Under's thesis and Doubtful is 'out' in practice; if McConkey is inactive the Chargers' passing pie shrinks too, which is the same direction. Neither leg is conditional on either tag. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET) — Under 43.5 holds 57 (grades at −102); Las Vegas +6.5 holds 53 (grades at +102). The Under's sharp read went from 98% to 97% of the market-maker's dollars — unchanged in substance. McConkey active is a small push toward the Over that the market ignored (43.5 froze); Bowers Doubtful is the Under's argument and it stands. Best numbers: 43.5 at −100 on the platform, +6.5 at +100 (BetMGM) / +103 (platform).

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 7 rated · 0 on the card

QBLVWATCH

Kirk Cousins

Cousins U192.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line176.5 vs 192.5 (−16.0) · avg 185.2

Role · share45% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 40

Opponent · lineopp rank 27 (277 allowed W1) · line 208.5 → 192.5

176.5 median on 192.5 with Bowers Doubtful — the books cut it 16 from the open; spent. Median 176.5 against 192.5 (−16.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. 45% pass. Week 1: 160. Opponent rank 27 on the stat (277 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 208.5 → 192.5. TE Bowers Doubtful.

Opp rank the wrong wayTE Bowers Doubtful

RBLVWATCH

Ashton Jeanty

Jeanty U64.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line55 vs 64.5 (−9.5) · avg 59

Role · share16.5 att (76%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 29

Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (116 allowed W1) · line 64.5 → 64.5

Median 55 against 64.5 (−9.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. 16.5 att (76%). Week 1: 102. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (116 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 64.5 → 64.5. TE Bowers Doubtful.

TE Bowers Doubtful

QBLACWATCH

Justin Herbert

Herbert U224.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—

Projection vs line209.5 vs 224.5 (−15.0) · avg 195.5

Role · share59% pass

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 53

Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (185 allowed W1) · line 210.5 → 224.5

Median 209.5 against 224.5 (−15.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 59% pass. Week 1: 209. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (185 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 210.5 → 224.5.

WR1LACWATCH

Quentin Johnston

Johnston U50.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line21.5 vs 50.5 (−29.0) · avg 36.5

Role · share5 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (220 allowed W1) · line 53.5 → 50.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 21.5 against 50.5 (−29.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 5 tgt (16%). Week 1: 17. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (220 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 53.5 → 50.5. WR/CB −0.21 vs D. Porter (OUT).

WR/CB against

WR2LACWATCH

Tre' Harris

Harris U32.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line20 vs 32.5 (−12.5) · avg 24.3

Role · share3.5 tgt (10%)

Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 17

Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (220 allowed W1) · line 43.5 → 32.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 20 against 32.5 (−12.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 83% of 2025. 3.5 tgt (10%). Week 1: 20. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (220 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 43.5 → 32.5. WR/CB −0.15 vs Stokes.

RBLACWATCH

Omarion Hampton

Hampton U62.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.5—

Projection vs line50 vs 62.5 (−12.5) · avg 53.9

Role · share12.2 att (47%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 30

Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (74 allowed W1) · line 65.5 → 62.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 50 against 62.5 (−12.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 70% of 2025. 12.2 att (47%). Week 1: 43. Opponent rank 6 on the stat (74 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 65.5 → 62.5.

TELACNO PLAY

David Njoku

Njoku U24.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line16 vs 24.5 (−8.5) · avg 23.4

Role · share3.5 tgt (10%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (220 allowed W1) · line 19.5 → 24.5

Median 16 against 24.5 (−8.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 3.5 tgt (10%). Week 1: 58. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (220 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 19.5 → 24.5.

Jaguars @ Broncos — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET4:05 PM ET · FOX

Venue

Empower Field · Denver, CO · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

69°F warming to 72, rain 36%, wind 7–9 mph (forecast 1:24 AM ET)

Line

DEN -2.5 (−108) on our data platform (2:50 PM) · −2.5 at the market-maker (−120), Boomers, BetMGM (−115), Caesars (−122), South Point (−110) · −3 at Westgate/Wynn (+100)

Total

45.5 · 45.5 at every Nevada book read (2:59 PM) and on the platform (Under +102)

⚡ THE JUICE. Late-window pass, Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET — what changed since 2:38 PM: RJ Harvey is OUT — official (league feed, 2:49 PM ET), Mims OUT; the platform came back at 2:48 PM. Money at 2:58 PM: the public book has Denver at 63% of the spread money on 41% of tickets (+22, SHARP; 59% of tickets on Jacksonville — CONTRARIAN), the market-maker has Denver at 91% of its dollars on 60% of tickets (+31, SHARP) — ALIGNED, and louder than this morning. The Broncos are still −2.5 at five Nevada books. Inactives pass, Sun Sep 20 · 2:38 PM ET — what changed since 10:52 AM: RJ Harvey is reported not expected to play — a national NFL news report Sunday morning (citing ESPN's insider) says the hamstring keeps him out; the league feed still listed him Questionable at 2:37 PM ET and the official inactives had not posted to it. Jonah Coleman and Tyler Badie move up behind Dobbins. Our data platform was dark at 2:04–2:05 PM, so the −122 on Dobbins from the 10:49 AM board is the last price we can show. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: RJ Harvey is still Questionable (hamstring) at 10:46 AM; Marvin Mims is OUT. The Broncos' number sits at −3 at four Nevada books and −2.5 at Caesars and on the platform — we published −2.5 and that is still posted. Dobbins' 59.5 held but the price ran from +100 to −122 — 22 cents of the market pricing Harvey's tag onto Dobbins' volume, which is the leg's mechanism and its cap (6.0 while Harvey is Questionable). Money: the public book has Denver at 65% of the money on 38% of tickets (+27, SHARP with 62% of tickets on Jacksonville — CONTRARIAN); the market-maker has Denver at 92% of its dollars on 53% of tickets (+39, SHARP). ALIGNED. The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. The public book's dollars are 74% Denver on 38% of tickets (+36, CONTRARIAN against 62% Jacksonville tickets); the market-maker's spread money is a mild Denver lean (59/50) and its moneyline money 81% Denver on 45% of tickets (+36). The three ratings have Denver by 2.1–5.1 — an average of 3.6 against a 2.5–3, a point of Denver. Systems: Denver lost by double digits in Week 1 (53-30-3 ATS) and lost a divisional spread by 14+ (15-10-1); Denver is 23-6 ATS bouncing back from a 14-point-or-less game and Payton 21-6 ATS off a road loss; Jacksonville scored 30+ and is now a dog (23-38 ATS) and Lawrence is 2-6 ATS against poor defenses — against Jacksonville's small-road-dog system (26-6) and two splits systems. Denver's defense allowed 220 rushing yards in Week 1 (31st); Mims is out and Harvey Questionable. Rain at 36%. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): JAC offense (W1): 34 ppg (6th), 6.3 ypp (5th), 50% 3rd down (T8th), 0 TO (T1st). DEN defense: 31 ppg allowed (T22nd), 220 rush allowed (31st), 53% 3rd-down D (25th). Injuries: DEN: WR Marvin Mims OUT (foot), RB RJ Harvey Q (hamstring), OLB Cooper SUSPENDED, G Gargiulo OUT. JAC: OL Mekari/Mustipher IR, DE B.J. Green IR.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: JAC 26% of the spread money on 62% of tickets; Over 93% $ / 71% tix; moneyline JAC 71% $ / 61% tix. The market-maker: JAC 41% $ / 50% tix; Over 99% $ / 60% tix; moneyline DEN 81% $ / 45% tix. Tracker: opened -2.6, now -2.9 (home line) — Jaguars +3 at three Nevada books · +2.5 (+108) on the platform · Broncos −2.5 (−122) at Caesars; total opened 43.75, now 45.5. Three rating systems (home line): -3.5 / -2.1 / -5.1 vs the market -2.5; projected totals 45.0 / 46.9 vs 45.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Small road dog off a W1 loss → 26-6 ATS ON Jacksonville (but see next); Scored 30+ in W1, now a dog → 23-38 ATS FADE Jacksonville; Lost by double digits in W1 → ON Denver · lost W1 divisional spread by 14+ → ON Denver; Splits #5 ON Jacksonville · #8 ON Jacksonville · #11 74%+ Over handle → UNDER instead; Denver 23-6 ATS bouncing back from ≤14 points; Payton 21-6 ATS off a road loss; Denver 110-75 Under; JAX-DEN Over 8-1 in Denver. The network's expert room: Broncos −2.5/ML ×6; Jaguars +3/+8.5 ×2; Over 43.5 ×1 (totals model).

🎯 DENVER −2.5 (−111 on the platform; −2.5 −122 at Caesars, −3 elsewhere) — conviction 54. Two money layers, a model edge, and the Week-2 report's bounce-back systems on the same side against the report's own small-road-dog system on the other. Take −2.5, not −3 — the hook is the whole bet. Argument against: Jacksonville averaged 6.3 a play with zero turnovers in Week 1 and Denver's run defense was the worst on the board. The total: both books are Over by dollars (99% on 60% at the market-maker, +39) and the ratings straddle it — the Over is the public's side (71% of tickets) and the 74%-handle Over trap says fade it; pass. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — Denver −2.5 holds 54. Both books' dollars are on the Broncos this morning against a public ticket count on Jacksonville; the tag is ALIGNED and the −2.5 is still available at Caesars and on the platform (do not lay 3 at −110 when 2.5 −111 exists). Dobbins O59.5 holds with the cap; the −122 is the market agreeing with us, and the published +100 is what grades. If Harvey is inactive at 11:30, the cap lifts and the leg is the better for it. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 2:38 PM ET): Denver −2.5 holds 54 (nothing in the money layer changed since 10:45 AM). Dobbins O59.5 gets the mechanism it was priced on: if Harvey is inactive, the 6.0 cap that was his teammate's Q tag lifts and the volume is Dobbins' — but the cap stays on the record as scored, because a Prop Score is not re-scored off a news report; we print the read and let the 4:05 kick confirm it. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET) — Denver −2.5 holds 54; grades at −111 as published (board −108 now). Harvey OUT is official: Dobbins O59.5 is the backfield, Coleman and Badie behind him; the cap on the record was the Q tag's and it stays as scored, but the volume read is now the strongest it has been. Under 45.5 is the market-maker's side by dollars (91% on 40% of tickets) — printed, not played; the 2:58 PM public book has the Over at 79% of the money.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card

QBJACWATCH

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence O224.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line250 vs 224.5 (+25.5) · avg 246.1

Role · share43% pass

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 56

Opponent · lineopp rank 10 (172 allowed W1) · line 232.5 → 224.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 250 against 224.5 (+25.5); over in 80% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 43% pass. Week 1: 245. Opponent rank 10 on the stat (172 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 232.5 → 224.5.

WR1JACWATCH

Parker Washington

Washington O59.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line77 vs 59.5 (+17.5) · avg 74

Role · share6.9 tgt (22%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 100 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 41

Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (184 allowed W1) · line 58.5 → 59.5

77 median, 22% share, five of five over — and −0.20 on the WR/CB tool vs McMillian in the slot; WATCH. Median 77 against 59.5 (+17.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 41% of 2025. 6.9 tgt (22%). Week 1: 83. Opponent rank 11 on the stat (184 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 58.5 → 59.5. WR/CB −0.20 vs McMillian.

WR/CB against

WR2JACWATCH

Jakobi Meyers

Meyers O39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line44.5 vs 39.5 (+5.0) · avg 49.4

Role · share6.4 tgt (20%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 59

Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (184 allowed W1) · line 39.5 → 39.5

Median 44.5 against 39.5 (+5.0); over in 70% of the last ten and 59% of 2025. 6.4 tgt (20%). Week 1: 40. Opponent rank 11 on the stat (184 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 39.5 → 39.5. WR/CB −0.11 vs R. Moss.

WR3JACNO PLAY

Brian Thomas Jr.

Thomas O34.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line39.5 vs 34.5 (+5.0) · avg 43.4

Role · share4.8 tgt (14%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 67

Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (184 allowed W1) · line 38.5 → 34.5

Median 39.5 against 34.5 (+5.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 4.8 tgt (14%). Week 1: 40. Opponent rank 11 on the stat (184 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 38.5 → 34.5. WR/CB −0.39 vs Surtain.

WR/CB against

RBJACWATCH

Bhayshul Tuten

Tuten U49.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line20 vs 49.5 (−29.5) · avg 29.4

Role · share7 att (23%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 13

Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (220 allowed W1) · line 45.5 → 49.5

Median 20 against 49.5 (−29.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 87% of 2025. 7 att (23%). Week 1: 66. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (220 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 45.5 → 49.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

TEJACNO PLAY

Brenton Strange

Strange O30.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—

Projection vs line33 vs 30.5 (+2.5) · avg 39

Role · share4.5 tgt (14%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 62

Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (184 allowed W1) · line 31.5 → 30.5

Median 33 against 30.5 (+2.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 62% of 2025. 4.5 tgt (14%). Week 1: 23. Opponent rank 11 on the stat (184 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 31.5 → 30.5.

QBDENWATCH

Bo Nix

Nix O220.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line245.5 vs 220.5 (+25.0) · avg 236.5

Role · share68% pass

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (185 allowed W1) · line 229.5 → 220.5

Median 245.5 against 220.5 (+25.0); over in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 68% pass. Week 1: 131. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (185 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 229.5 → 220.5.

WR1DENNO PLAY

Jaylen Waddle

Waddle U53.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line51 vs 53.5 (−2.5) · avg 50.7

Role · share5.9 tgt (21%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 44

Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (205 allowed W1) · line 52.5 → 53.5

Median 51 against 53.5 (−2.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 5.9 tgt (21%). Week 1: 2. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (205 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 52.5 → 53.5. WR/CB −0.15 vs J. Lewis.

WR2DENWATCH

Courtland Sutton

Sutton O41.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line56 vs 41.5 (+14.5) · avg 50.8

Role · share7.7 tgt (20%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 63

Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (205 allowed W1) · line 40.5 → 41.5

Median 56 against 41.5 (+14.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. 7.7 tgt (20%). Week 1: 11. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (205 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 40.5 → 41.5. WR/CB −0.11 vs M. Brown.

WR3DENNO PLAY

Pat Bryant

Bryant O30.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line37 vs 30.5 (+6.5) · avg 36.8

Role · share4.5 tgt (12%)

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 47

Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (205 allowed W1) · line 35.5 → 30.5

Median 37 against 30.5 (+6.5); over in 80% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 4.5 tgt (12%). Week 1: 42. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (205 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 35.5 → 30.5. WR/CB −0.14 vs T. Hunter.

RBDENPLAY

J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins O59.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0+100

Projection vs line78 vs 59.5 (+18.5) · avg 74.5

Role · share14.5 att (57%) — Harvey Q

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 90

Opponent · lineopp rank 9 (87 allowed W1) · line 44.5 → 59.5

Eight of ten over 59.5 last year and 90% of 2025, a 78 median, 57% of the carries — and a line the books RAISED fifteen yards from 44.5 because Harvey is Questionable, which is the market pricing the same thing we see. Even money is the price. Jacksonville allowed 87 rushing yards in Week 1 (9th), one game. Capped at 6.0 by the partner tag; 36 yards in Week 1 is the argument against. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): 59.5 holds; price +100 → −122 (the board pricing Harvey's tag onto Dobbins). Harvey still Questionable — cap 6.0 stands until inactives. Inactives (2:38 PM ET): Harvey reported not expected to play (national report, Sunday AM); feed still Q at 2:37 PM. Cap 6.0 stays on the record as scored; the volume read firms. Pass 3 (3:04 PM ET): Harvey OUT official (2:49 PM). 59.5 holds at −122 (board 3:02 PM); grades at +100.

Line raised 15 — market agreesHarvey Q — capped36 yds in W159.5 holds · price ran to −122Harvey Q — cap 6.0Harvey reported out — volume firmsHarvey OUT — official59.5 · −122

TEDENNO PLAY

Evan Engram

Engram O23.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—

Projection vs line27 vs 23.5 (+3.5) · avg 30.3

Role · share4.2 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (205 allowed W1) · line 23.5 → 23.5

Median 27 against 23.5 (+3.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 4.2 tgt (11%). Week 1: 43. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (205 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 23.5 → 23.5.

Dolphins @ 49ers — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET4:25 PM ET · FOX

Venue

Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

67–71°F, clear, wind 6–12 mph (forecast 1:24 AM ET)

Line

SF -13.5 (+104) on our data platform · −13.5 at six Nevada books (−13 at South Point) — no leg

Total

44.5 · 45 at the market-maker, Boomers, BetMGM, Westgate, Stations, Wynn; 44.5 at Caesars and on the platform (Under −100)

⚡ THE JUICE. Late-window pass, Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET — what changed since 2:38 PM: Under 44.5 is priced −100 on the platform again (it was +104 at 10:44 AM); the total is 45 at six Nevada books. Money at 2:58 PM: the market-maker's total dollars are 92% UNDER on 62% of tickets (+30, SHARP); the public book 38% Under by dollars on 30% of tickets (+8, a lean the same way). Nothing on the inactives touches the total (Chop Robinson OUT for Miami). Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: the Under moved our way on price (+104 on the platform, published −100) and the Nevada number is 45 at four books — a half-point better than we published if you can get it. Money on the total: the public book has the Under at 49% of the money on 35% of tickets (+14, SHARP); the market-maker has the Under at 91% of its dollars on 50% of its tickets (+41, SHARP). ALIGNED on the total. Achane's 59.5 holds (−108). The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. Miami starts Malik Willis, scored 13 in Week 1, allowed five sacks and eleven quarterback hits, and travels to a San Francisco defense that allowed 7 points and 168 receiving yards (1st and 5th). The number is 13–13.5 and the ratings have it at 11.6–13.7 — on the number. The money is San Francisco at both books by tickets and dollars (90/82; 100/91). Systems split three each way, with the 77%+-handle-on-a-big-favorite fade (13-25) against San Francisco and the rookie-head-coach-big-dog fade against Miami. The total: both books' sharp Unders (75% on 43% of tickets at the public book, +32; 91% on 67% at the market-maker, +24) and a model at 44.1–44.2, a half-point under the 44.5–45. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): MIA offense (W1): 13 ppg (T25th), 20% 3rd down (27th), 5 sacks allowed (T30th), 11 QB hits allowed (31st). SF defense: 7 ppg (1st), 33% RZ (T5th), 22% 3rd-down D (7th), 168 pass allowed (T8th). Injuries: MIA: DE Chop Robinson OUT (concussion), LB Ronnie Harrison OUT, CBs Baker/Duck OUT; DL Kenneth Grant IR. SF: WR Brandon Aiyuk SUSPENDED, RB Guerendo OUT, WR Stribling OUT, DL Mykel Williams OUT, K Pineiro Q (illness), RB Kaelon Black Q; WRs Kirk/Pearsall IR, TE Tonges IR.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: MIA 10% of the spread money on 18% of tickets; Over 25% $ / 57% tix; moneyline SF 94% $ / 97% tix. The market-maker: MIA 0% $ / 9% tix; Over 9% $ / 33% tix; moneyline SF 96% $ / 67% tix. Tracker: opened -12.2, now -13.1 (home line) — Dolphins +13.5 on the platform (−105) and at BetMGM · +13 at three Nevada books; total opened 46.25, now 44.5/45. Three rating systems (home line): -13.1 / -13.7 / -11.6 vs the market -13.5; projected totals 44.2 / 44.1 vs 44.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Lost by double digits in W1 → ON Miami · opponent played the weeknight opener → ON Miami; Big W1 divisional win (7+) → ON San Francisco; Rookie HC big dog FADE Miami; Splits #4 ON San Francisco · #6 77%+ handle on 6.5+ favorite → FADE San Francisco · #8 ON San Francisco; Miami 32-20 ATS non-conf, 56-46 as a dog; Purdy 10-12 ATS vs lesser records. The network's expert room: Dolphins +13.5 ×1; Under 46 ×1; Willis O36.5 rush ×1.

🎯 UNDER 44.5 (−100 on the platform; 45 at three Nevada books — take 45) — conviction 53. The side is a STAY AWAY at 13.5 with a backup quarterback. Two sharp Unders and a model that leans the same way by a half-point: the third and last Under on the card. Argument against: a 13.5-point spread produces garbage-time points, and Miami's Achane is the one Dolphin who can score from anywhere. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — Under 44.5 holds 53, and 45 in Nevada is the number. Both books' sharp dollars are on the Under this morning, which is one more layer than we published with; it does not rise because a 13.5-point favorite's total has a garbage-time tail we cannot price. Achane O59.5 holds; nothing changed on the panel. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET) — Under 44.5 holds 53 and grades at −100 as published (board −100 now; the +104 was a morning price). If you have not bet it, the number is 45 at six Nevada books. ALIGNED on the total at both books.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card

QBMIAWATCH

Malik Willis

Willis O/U 181.5 pass yds—

Projection vs line— vs 181.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share9 comp on 12.4 att a game — starter

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (168 allowed W1) · opened 199.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR1MIAWATCH

Caleb Douglas

Douglas O/U 38.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 38.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share5 rec on 7 tgt (W1)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (168 allowed W1) · opened 39.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR2MIAWATCH

Malik Washington

Washington U33.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line16.5 vs 33.5 (−17.0) · avg 23.5

Role · share3.5 tgt (12%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 18

Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (168 allowed W1) · line 29.5 → 33.5

Median 16.5 against 33.5 (−17.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 82% of 2025. 3.5 tgt (12%). Week 1: 53. Opponent rank 8 on the stat (168 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 29.5 → 33.5. WR/CB −0.01 vs Stout.

WR3MIAWATCH

Chris Bell

Bell O/U 19.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 19.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share1 rec on 2 tgt (W1)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (168 allowed W1) · opened 19.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

RBMIAPLAY

De'Von Achane

Achane O59.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 8.0−108

Projection vs line82 vs 59.5 (+22.5) · avg 91.4

Role · share16 att (56%)

Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 81

Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (122 allowed W1) · line 58.5 → 59.5

An 82 median, nine of ten over 59.5 and 81% of 2025 — and a 36-yard Week 1 against the Raiders that is why the number sits 22 yards under his median. The books priced the matchup (San Francisco 1st in scoring defense through one game) and the quarterback (Malik Willis); the panel says the volume survives both — 16 carries, 56% share. Script scores half: a 13.5-point dog abandons the run when it trails by three scores, and Miami might. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): 59.5 holds at −108; alt 58.5 −113. Pass 3 (3:04 PM ET): 59.5 holds at −108 (board 3:02 PM).

22 yds of cushion13.5-pt dog — script risk36 in W159.5 holds59.5 · −108 holds

TEMIAWATCH

Greg Dulcich

Dulcich O23.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line36 vs 23.5 (+12.5) · avg 35.3

Role · share3.5 tgt (12%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 70

Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (168 allowed W1) · line 26.5 → 23.5

Median 36 against 23.5 (+12.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 70% of 2025. 3.5 tgt (12%). Week 1: 18. Opponent rank 8 on the stat (168 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 26.5 → 23.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

QBSFWATCH

Brock Purdy

Purdy U238.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line202.5 vs 238.5 (−36.0) · avg 218.8

Role · share53% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 55

Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (160 allowed W1) · line 225.5 → 238.5

Median 202.5 against 238.5 (−36.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 45% of 2025. 53% pass. Week 1: 205. Opponent rank 6 on the stat (160 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 225.5 → 238.5.

WR1SFWATCH

Mike Evans

Evans O/U 48.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 48.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share4.4 rec on 7.4 tgt

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (160 allowed W1) · opened 49.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR2SFWATCH

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Samuel O35.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line42 vs 35.5 (+6.5) · avg 44.9

Role · share5.7 tgt (20%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 56

Opponent · lineopp rank 5 (160 allowed W1) · line 30.5 → 35.5

+0.35 on the WR/CB tool and a 42 median on 35.5, against a one-game 5th-ranked Miami coverage; WATCH. Median 42 against 35.5 (+6.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 5.7 tgt (20%). Week 1: 48. Opponent rank 5 on the stat (160 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 30.5 → 35.5. WR/CB +0.35 vs C. Johnson.

Opp rank the wrong wayWR/CB edge

WR3SFNO PLAY

Demarcus Robinson

Robinson U25.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—

Projection vs line23.5 vs 25.5 (−2.0) · avg 29.6

Role · share2.5 tgt (8%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 38

Opponent · lineopp rank 5 (160 allowed W1) · line 25.5 → 25.5

Median 23.5 against 25.5 (−2.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 62% of 2025. 2.5 tgt (8%). Week 1: 50. Opponent rank 5 on the stat (160 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 25.5 → 25.5. WR/CB +0.20 vs Brents.

WR/CB edge

RBSFWATCH

Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey O59.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line70.5 vs 59.5 (+11.0) · avg 72.7

Role · share16.7 att (57%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 42

Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (130 allowed W1) · line 58.5 → 59.5

70.5 median on 59.5 in a 13.5-point favorite's script — the 2025 window (42%) is why it stays WATCH. Median 70.5 against 59.5 (+11.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 42% of 2025. 16.7 att (57%). Week 1: 68. Opponent rank 22 on the stat (130 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 58.5 → 59.5.

TESFWATCH

George Kittle

Kittle O39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line67 vs 39.5 (+27.5) · avg 57.8

Role · share6.5 tgt (20%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 58

Opponent · lineopp rank 5 (160 allowed W1) · line 39.5 → 39.5

67 median on 39.5 — and Miami allowed 168 receiving yards in Week 1 (5th); 12 last week. Median 67 against 39.5 (+27.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 58% of 2025. 6.5 tgt (20%). Week 1: 12. Opponent rank 5 on the stat (160 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 39.5 → 39.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

Seahawks @ Cardinals — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET4:25 PM ET · FOX

Venue

State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ · Dome

Weather at kickoff

Dome (State Farm)

Line

SEA -3.5 (−106) on our data platform · −4 at the market-maker, BetMGM, Westgate, Wynn; −3.5 at Boomers, Caesars, South Point — no leg

Total

41.5 · 41 at six Nevada books, 40.5 at Caesars, 41.5 on the platform

⚡ THE JUICE. Late-window pass, Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET — what changed since 2:38 PM: Zach Charbonnet is OUT for Seattle (with Darnold OUT) — the Seahawks are down their starting quarterback and a lead back; Kupp's target share holds but the passing pie is the backup's. Arizona's inactives: none of Wilson's or McBride's. Money at 2:58 PM: the market-maker has Arizona at 58% of its dollars on 35% of tickets (+23, SHARP on the home dog); the public book 63/66 Seattle. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Sam Darnold is OUT (lower-body soreness) — the Seahawks start their backup, and that is the five-point line move from −8.5 to −3.5/−4 explained. This lands on one of our three legs: Cooper Kupp O24.5 is a Seattle receiver with a backup quarterback throwing; the board held his line (24.5 at −106, 23.5 at −113 alt), which is the market saying the target share survives the quarterback change, but the projection behind the leg was built on Darnold's arm. Wilson O37.5 (−113) and McBride O59.5 (−120) are Cardinals and untouched. Money: the public book has Seattle at 70% of the money on 66% of tickets; the market-maker has ARIZONA at 64% of its dollars on 38% of tickets (+26, SHARP) — the books disagree on the side by dollars, stay-away as published. The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. Sam Darnold is out and Drew Lock starts for Seattle; the number fell from Seattle −6/−8.5 at the open to −4 on the news. The market-maker's dollars are 65% Arizona on 31% of tickets (+34, CONTRARIAN against 69% Seattle tickets) — and the three ratings, which adjust for the OUT, still have Seattle by 5.3–8.0, two and a half points past the 4. The statistical rating calls Seattle the most underpriced favorite on the board (projected −8). Systems: Arizona's opponent played the weeknight opener (26-17-1 ATS), three rookie-head-coach fades on Arizona (home, divisional, after a loss), the divisional-majority fade on Seattle, and Seattle 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the series. Money on Arizona, model and history on Seattle. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): SEA offense (W1): 13 ppg (T25th), 0% RZ (T30th), 18% 3rd down (28th), 0 TO, 0 hurries allowed. ARI defense: 14 ppg (9th), 81 rush allowed (7th), 25% 3rd-down D (T9th). Injuries: SEA: QB Sam Darnold OUT (lower body) — Drew Lock starts; RB Zach Charbonnet OUT (ACL), CB Terrion Arnold SUSPENDED, S Emmanwori Q, S Okada OUT, G Bradford Q. ARI: CB Garrett Williams OUT (Achilles), TE Tip Reiman OUT, RB James Conner IR, RB Trey Benson IR, CB Melton Q, DL Billings Q, OL Seumalo Q.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: SEA 72% of the spread money on 64% of tickets; Over 30% $ / 66% tix; moneyline SEA 60% $ / 86% tix. The market-maker: SEA 35% $ / 69% tix; Over 0% $ / 0% tix; moneyline SEA 89% $ / 43% tix. Tracker: opened +6.5, now +3.9 (home line) — Seahawks −3.5 at Boomers · −4 elsewhere · −4.5 (+113) on the platform; Cardinals +4.5 (−115) is the platform's dog number; total opened 43.6, now 40.5/41. Three rating systems (home line): +5.9 / +8.0 / +5.3 vs the market +4.5; projected totals 41.8 / 40.9 vs 41.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): #1 underpriced favorite (statistical rating) — Seattle projected −8; Opponent played the weeknight opener → ON Arizona; W1 close win (≤3) → UNDER · beat W1 spread by 8+ non-conf → UNDER · W1 total under by 17+ → OVER (systems split on the total); Rookie HC at home / divisional / after a loss → FADE Arizona; Splits #2/#3 divisional majority FADE Seattle; Seattle 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS in the last nine vs Arizona; Arizona 36-27 ATS as a dog. The network's expert room: Cardinals +4/+4.5/+6.5/ML ×5; Seahawks −3.5 ×1; Under 41.5 ×2.

🎯 STAY AWAY on the side and the total. The sharp dollars and the ratings are on opposite teams; the total has the public book's Under (70% of money on 34% of tickets) with a neutral model and systems that split. The props are the game — Arizona's passing volume (Wilson, McBride) is the exceed-side read of the week, and Kupp is the Drew Lock checkdown. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET): Kupp O24.5 stays published and grades at −103; the Darnold scratch is the dissent, printed: a backup quarterback lowers the passing-yardage pie even if Kupp's share of it holds, and the 24.5 is a low bar that the market did not lower. If we were building this leg today it would be WATCH, not PLAY. Wilson O37.5 and McBride O59.5 hold — the Cardinals' offense is intact and the sharp dollars at the market-maker are on Arizona keeping it close, which is throwing volume. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET): Wilson O37.5 (−113) and McBride O59.5 (−120) hold at the published prices — the board did not move either (3:02 PM). Kupp O24.5 holds at −106 and grades at −103 with the printed dissent (backup QB); Charbonnet OUT adds a second reason it would be WATCH today. The sharp Arizona money at the market-maker is the argument for the Cardinals' passing volume, which is the two Arizona legs' script.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 3 on the card

QBSEAWATCH

Drew Lock

Lock O/U 207.5 pass yds—

Projection vs line— vs 207.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share3.2 comp on 4.4 att a game as a backup — starts for Darnold (OUT)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (168 allowed W1) · opened 174.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR1SEAWATCH

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Smith-Njigba O81.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line88 vs 81.5 (+6.5) · avg 80.1

Role · share9.3 tgt (29%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 75

Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (209 allowed W1) · line 84.5 → 81.5

88 median on 81.5 with Drew Lock at quarterback — a new quarterback is role 1.5 and the cushion is six yards; WATCH. Median 88 against 81.5 (+6.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 75% of 2025. 9.3 tgt (29%). Week 1: 122. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (209 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 84.5 → 81.5. WR/CB +0.12 vs W. Johnson. QB change — Drew Lock starts.

QB change — Drew Lock starts

WR2SEAPLAY

Cooper Kupp

Kupp O24.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5−103

Projection vs line35.5 vs 24.5 (+11.0) · avg 37.1

Role · share5 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 74

Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (209 allowed W1) · line 30.5 → 24.5

Eight of ten over 24.5 with a 35.5 median and 74% of 2025 — at 16% of the targets in an offense that now has Drew Lock at quarterback with Darnold out. A backup quarterback throws short, and Kupp is the short-throw receiver; 35 yards last week. The books cut the number six from the open; one catch of any length gets most of the way there. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): Darnold OUT — backup QB throws. Line held 24.5 (−106); published leg grades at −103. Would be WATCH if built today; printed dissent. Pass 3 (3:04 PM ET): Charbonnet OUT joins Darnold OUT for Seattle; 24.5 holds at −106; grades at −103. Dissent stands.

Backup QB → checkdownsLock starts — role 1.5Darnold OUT24.5 holdsCharbonnet OUT

WR3SEANO PLAY

Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed U24.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—

Projection vs line7.5 vs 24.5 (−17.0) · avg 24

Role · share3.1 tgt (10%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 67

Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (209 allowed W1) · line 27.5 → 24.5

Median 7.5 against 24.5 (−17.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 33% of 2025. 3.1 tgt (10%). Week 1: 4. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (209 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 27.5 → 24.5. WR/CB +0.07 vs Melton. QB change — Drew Lock starts.

QB change — Drew Lock starts

RBSEAWATCH

Jadarian Price

Price O/U 60.5 rush yds—

Projection vs line— vs 60.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share10 att (45%) — Charbonnet OUT

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (81 allowed W1) · opened 57.5

Short sample — WATCHQB change — Drew Lock starts; Charbonnet OUT

TESEANO PLAY

AJ Barner

Barner O22.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—

Projection vs line27 vs 22.5 (+4.5) · avg 27.5

Role · share3.6 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 65

Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (209 allowed W1) · line 25.5 → 22.5

Median 27 against 22.5 (+4.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 65% of 2025. 3.6 tgt (11%). Week 1: 13. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (209 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 25.5 → 22.5. QB change — Drew Lock starts.

QB change — Drew Lock starts

QBARIWATCH

Jacoby Brissett

Brissett O220.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line264.5 vs 220.5 (+44.0) · avg 278.3

Role · share53% pass

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 71

Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (168 allowed W1) · line 222.5 → 220.5

the one Conflicts read on the board (Seattle 8th vs pass in one game) — a 264.5 median on 220.5 with 80% windows; rated, not bet, because two Arizona passing legs are already on the card. Median 264.5 against 220.5 (+44.0); over in 80% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. 53% pass. Week 1: 277. Opponent rank 8 on the stat (168 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 222.5 → 220.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

WR1ARIPLAY

Michael Wilson

Wilson O37.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 8.0−111

Projection vs line72.5 vs 37.5 (+35.0) · avg 86.5

Role · share10.2 tgt (23%)

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 59

Opponent · lineopp rank 10 (178 allowed W1) · line 45.5 → 37.5

A 72.5 median and an 86-yard average on a 37.5 line — eight of his last ten over it, five of five in the last five — for the receiver who takes 23% of Arizona's targets. Seattle's 10th-ranked pass defense is one game old and scores half a point; the books cut this number from 45.5 to 37.5 after a 56-yard Week 1 and the panel still clears it by 35. The exceed-side mechanism is volume: 10.2 targets a game. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): 37.5 holds (−113). Cardinals' offense intact; Seattle down to its backup QB. Pass 3 (3:04 PM ET): 37.5 holds at −113 (board 3:02 PM); sharp Arizona money at the market-maker (+23).

Exceed-side: 23% share, 10 targetsAdvantage 1.29 on the WR/CB toolOne position with McBride37.5 holds37.5 · −113 holds

WR2ARIWATCH

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison O34.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line45.5 vs 34.5 (+11.0) · avg 49.9

Role · share5.9 tgt (14%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 58

Opponent · lineopp rank 10 (178 allowed W1) · line 30.5 → 34.5

Median 45.5 against 34.5 (+11.0); over in 50% of the last ten and 58% of 2025. 5.9 tgt (14%). Week 1: 33. Opponent rank 10 on the stat (178 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 30.5 → 34.5. WR/CB +0.01 vs Pritchett.

WR3ARIWATCH

Kendrick Bourne

Bourne U23.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line0 vs 23.5 (−23.5) · avg 14.4

Role · share2.1 tgt (6%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 44

Opponent · lineopp rank 10 (178 allowed W1) · line 24.5 → 23.5

Median 0 against 23.5 (−23.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 2.1 tgt (6%). Week 1: 75. Opponent rank 10 on the stat (178 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 24.5 → 23.5. WR/CB −0.11 vs Witherspoon.

RBARIWATCH

Jeremiyah Love

Love O/U 36.5 rush yds—

Projection vs line— vs 36.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share11 att (32%) — rookie; Conner/Benson IR

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (81 allowed W1) · opened 39.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

TEARIPLAY

Trey McBride

McBride O59.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 8.0−120

Projection vs line80.5 vs 59.5 (+21.0) · avg 85.8

Role · share10.7 tgt (24%)

Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 65

Opponent · lineopp rank 10 (178 allowed W1) · line 64.5 → 59.5

An 80.5 median against 59.5 — twenty-one yards of cushion on the tight end who takes 24% of Arizona's targets (10.7 a game), 95 in Week 1, eight of ten over the number last year. The line came down five from the open. The dissent is the same as Wilson's: a one-game Seattle rank of 10th, and the two legs are one Arizona passing game. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): 59.5 holds (−120). Pass 3 (3:04 PM ET): 59.5 holds at −120.

24% target shareOne position with Wilson59.5 holds59.5 · −120 holds

Commanders @ Cowboys — Week 2

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET4:25 PM ET · CBS

Venue

AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX · Dome

Weather at kickoff

Dome (AT&T)

Line

DAL -4.5 (+108) on our data platform (2:50 PM) · Commanders +4.5 (−108) on the platform · +4 at all seven Nevada books (−105 at BetMGM) · the public book is at 3.5

Total

50.5 · 51 at six Nevada books, 50.5 at Caesars and on the platform

⚡ THE JUICE. Late-window pass, Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET — what changed since 2:38 PM: Luvu OUT (WAS), Overshown and Hooker OUT (DAL) — the linebacker/safety attrition is on both sides. Money at 2:58 PM: the public book has Dallas at 68% of the spread money on 59% of tickets; the market-maker has Dallas at 72% of its dollars on 65% of tickets. Both books' money is still on the favorite and the line has not come back to us. Our +4.5 is a full point better than the market-maker's number and one better than the public book's. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: the number moved against us — 4.5 → 4 in Nevada → 3.5 at the public book — and the money moved with it: the public book has Dallas at 69% of the money on 58% of tickets, the market-maker has Dallas at 71% of its dollars on 54% of its tickets. We published Washington on moneyline money at both books and a divisional-dog system; this morning the spread dollars are Dallas at both books and the line is a point shorter. The moneyline money we cited has thinned (public book 49% Washington on 23% of tickets — still tickets-light, but no longer a majority of the dollars). The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. The moneyline money is Washington at both books — 56% on 23% of tickets at the public book, 75% on 44% at the market-maker (+31) — while the spread money is a mild Dallas lean at the public book (63/53) and a mild Washington lean at the market-maker (52/45). The three ratings have Dallas by 2.6–2.8 against a 4–4.5: a point and a half of Washington. The systems: Washington is a Week-2 0-1 road dog in the +1 to +6.5 range (26-6 ATS, 81%, the report's headline system) and a dog in its second straight divisional game (22-12-1) — against Dallas as a Week-1 road favorite that lost (22-12 ATS), Dallas 20-1 straight up and 17-4 ATS as a divisional home favorite, and 8-1 ATS hosting Washington. Dallas allowed opponents to convert 82% of third downs in Week 1 (32nd); Washington is without Luvu and Okonkwo, Dallas without Hooker and Overshown. The total is the public's Over at both books with the ratings a hair over 50.5 and two Over-trap systems saying Under. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): WAS offense (W1): 22 ppg, 132 rush (8th), 163 pass (26th), 4.5 ypp (25th), 0 TO. DAL defense: 28 ppg allowed (21st), 82% 3rd-down D (32nd), 29 first downs allowed (31st), 165 rush allowed (T27th). Injuries: WAS: LB Frankie Luvu OUT (groin), TE Chig Okonkwo OUT, DT Kinlaw Q, DE Wise OUT; T Tunsil IR, CB Amos IR. DAL: S Malik Hooker OUT (forearm), LB Overshown OUT, G Tyler Smith IR.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: WAS 37% of the spread money on 47% of tickets; Over 90% $ / 64% tix; moneyline WAS 56% $ / 23% tix. The market-maker: WAS 52% $ / 45% tix; Over 92% $ / 75% tix; moneyline WAS 75% $ / 44% tix. Tracker: opened -4.1, now -4.0 (home line) — Commanders +4.5 (−111) on the platform · +4 at all four Nevada books · Cowboys −4 −110 Nevada; total opened 51.0, now 50.5. Three rating systems (home line): -2.6 / -2.8 / -2.6 vs the market -4.5; projected totals 50.7 / 51.3 vs 50.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Small road dog off a W1 loss → 26-6 ATS (Grade 75) ON Washington; Dog in second of back-to-back divisional games → 22-12-1 ON Washington; Lost/tied as a road favorite in W1 → 22-12 ATS (Grade 60) ON Dallas; Splits #2/#3 divisional majority FADE Washington · #9 OVER (bets majority) · #11/#12 Over trap → UNDER instead; Dallas 20-1 SU / 17-4 ATS as a divisional home favorite; 8-1 ATS hosting Washington; Over 5-1 in the series. The network's expert room: Cowboys −4 ×2; Commanders ML ×1; Over ×2 (a columnist and the totals model).

🎯 WASHINGTON +4.5 (−111 on the platform; +4 at all four Nevada books — the platform's 4.5 is the number) — conviction 55. Sharp moneyline money at both books, a ratings edge, and the report's top system, against Dallas' home history in this series, which is the printed dissent. The total is a pass: everyone is Over, the model barely is, and two splits systems say the obvious Over is the trap. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — Washington +4.5 re-sized 55 → 50; grades at −111 as published. The line went 4.5 → 4 → 3.5 with the money on Dallas at both books — negative closing value and a money layer that flipped. What is left: the divisional-dog system (26-6) and 1.6 points of ratings. The published 4.5 is a full point better than the public book's number this morning, which is the one good thing about it. Argument for the other side is now the majority of the evidence, printed. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET) — Washington +4.5 stays at 50 and grades at −111; displayed at −108 (the board 2:50 PM). Nothing new for the dog; the number we published is the best number on the board, which is the only argument for it that the market has not taken away. Printed against it: both books' dollars on Dallas.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card

QBWASWATCH

Jayden Daniels

Daniels O/U 224.5 pass yds—

Projection vs line— vs 224.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share30.4 pass plays (50%), 14.8 comp

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (230 allowed W1) · opened 224.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR1WASNO PLAY

Terry McLaurin

McLaurin U55.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—

Projection vs line55.5 vs 55.5 (−0.0) · avg 56.9

Role · share6 tgt (20%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (230 allowed W1) · line 50.5 → 55.5

Median 55.5 against 55.5 (−0.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 6 tgt (20%). Week 1: 14. Opponent rank 22 on the stat (230 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 50.5 → 55.5. WR/CB +0.35 vs Bland.

WR/CB edge

WR2WASWATCH

Stefon Diggs

Diggs U47.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line38.5 vs 47.5 (−9.0) · avg 49.9

Role · share5.6 tgt (17%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 33

Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (230 allowed W1) · line 55.5 → 47.5

Median 38.5 against 47.5 (−9.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 5.6 tgt (17%). Week 1: 55. Opponent rank 22 on the stat (230 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 55.5 → 47.5. WR/CB +0.15 vs C. Downs.

WR3WASWATCH

Antonio Williams

Williams O/U 26.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 26.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share4 rec on 4 tgt (W1)

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (230 allowed W1) · opened 26.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

RBWASWATCH

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Croskey-Merritt U53.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.5—

Projection vs line31 vs 53.5 (−22.5) · avg 46.6

Role · share10.9 att (36%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 29

Opponent · lineopp rank 27 (165 allowed W1) · line 60.5 → 53.5

Median 31 against 53.5 (−22.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. 10.9 att (36%). Week 1: 63. Opponent rank 27 on the stat (165 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 60.5 → 53.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

TEWASWATCH

John Bates

Bates U13.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line7.5 vs 13.5 (−6.0) · avg 8

Role · share1.5 tgt (5%) — Okonkwo OUT

Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 20

Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (230 allowed W1) · line 13.5 → 13.5

Median 7.5 against 13.5 (−6.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 80% of 2025. 1.5 tgt (5%) — Okonkwo OUT. Week 1: 13. Opponent rank 22 on the stat (230 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 13.5 → 13.5.

QBDALWATCH

Dak Prescott

Prescott O269.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line281 vs 269.5 (+11.5) · avg 265.8

Role · share65% pass

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 41

Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (182 allowed W1) · line 261.5 → 269.5

Median 281 against 269.5 (+11.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 41% of 2025. 65% pass. Week 1: 175. Opponent rank 12 on the stat (182 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 261.5 → 269.5.

WR1DALWATCH

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb U75.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—

Projection vs line70.5 vs 75.5 (−5.0) · avg 71.5

Role · share8.3 tgt (22%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (203 allowed W1) · line 65.5 → 75.5

Median 70.5 against 75.5 (−5.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 8.3 tgt (22%). Week 1: 44. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (203 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 65.5 → 75.5. WR/CB +0.36 vs R. Douglas.

WR/CB edge

WR2DALWATCH

George Pickens

Pickens O63.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—

Projection vs line78.5 vs 63.5 (+15.0) · avg 77.2

Role · share8 tgt (21%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 71

Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (203 allowed W1) · line 66.5 → 63.5

Median 78.5 against 63.5 (+15.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. 8 tgt (21%). Week 1: 28. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (203 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 66.5 → 63.5. WR/CB +0.39 vs A. Robertson.

WR/CB edge

WR3DALNO PLAY

Ryan Flournoy

Flournoy U30.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line20 vs 30.5 (−10.5) · avg 31.8

Role · share4 tgt (11%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 31

Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (203 allowed W1) · line 28.5 → 30.5

Median 20 against 30.5 (−10.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 69% of 2025. 4 tgt (11%). Week 1: 22. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (203 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 28.5 → 30.5. WR/CB +0.60 vs Sainristil.

WR/CB edge

RBDALWATCH

Javonte Williams

Williams U74.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line63 vs 74.5 (−11.5) · avg 65

Role · share15.3 att (55%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 56

Opponent · lineopp rank 24 (136 allowed W1) · line 75.5 → 74.5

Median 63 against 74.5 (−11.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 44% of 2025. 15.3 att (55%). Week 1: 41. Opponent rank 24 on the stat (136 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 75.5 → 74.5.

TEDALNO PLAY

Jake Ferguson

Ferguson U26.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—

Projection vs line17.5 vs 26.5 (−9.0) · avg 27.2

Role · share4.5 tgt (12%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 0 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 59

Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (203 allowed W1) · line 27.5 → 26.5

Median 17.5 against 26.5 (−9.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 41% of 2025. 4.5 tgt (12%). Week 1: 6. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (203 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 27.5 → 26.5.

Colts @ Chiefs — Sunday Night Football

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET8:20 PM ET · NBC

Venue

Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO · Outdoors

Weather at kickoff

Outdoors (Arrowhead) — evening forecast not captured; 60s and dry expected

Line

KC -6.5 (+117) on our data platform · Colts +6 at five Nevada books, +5.5 at BetMGM, +6.5 on the platform (−115)

Total

45.5 on the platform · 46 at the market-maker, Boomers, BetMGM; 46.5 at Caesars, Westgate, Stations, Wynn

⚡ THE JUICE. Late-window pass, Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET — what changed since 2:38 PM: Jonathan Taylor's rushing line is 79.5 now (Under −113) — six yards of closing value on our Under 85.5. Chris Jones is Questionable for Kansas City; Giddens Questionable for the Colts (Taylor's relief). Money at 2:58 PM: the market-maker's dollars are 90% Colts on 31% of tickets (+59 — the loudest sharp number on the board for the second read running); the public book 74/76 Chiefs. Gameday pass, Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET — what changed since 1:49 AM: Jonathan Taylor's rushing line dropped to 82.5 (Under −113), with 79.5 the alt — three yards of closing value on our Under 85.5. The side: the market-maker's dollars are 95% Colts on 33% of tickets this morning (+62 — the loudest sharp number on the card, again), the public book 76% Chiefs by dollars and tickets. Still the money-versus-model conflict we printed. The 1 PM inactives (11:30 AM) post after this pass; anything they change is graded as published. The market-maker's dollars are 93% Indianapolis on 27% of tickets — a +66 gap, the loudest on the slate — CONTRARIAN against 73% of the public book's tickets on Kansas City. The three ratings have Kansas City by 7.2–8.3, a point and a half past the 6.5. The systems collide: Indianapolis is a Week-2 0-1 road dog (26-6 ATS) that lost by double digits at home (28-9), Kansas City is a second-straight-home favorite (6-19 ATS) and a 30-points-a-game team on Sunday night (6-20 ATS) with the primetime-majority fade; Kansas City is a home favorite of less than a touchdown on SNF (58%) off a win (58%) with a big Week-1 divisional win, and Indianapolis is an SNF team off a loss against a team off a win (18-30). Kansas City's defense allowed 115 passing yards, 61 rushing yards, 9 first downs and 3.7 a play in Week 1 — first in almost everything. The total: both books' sharp Unders (78% on 40% at the public book, +38; 96% on 70% at the market-maker, +26), a Week-2 splits system Under, Jones 34-16 Under as a dog, Kansas City 81-40 Under as a home favorite, the series Under 10-2 — against a model at 47.2–47.8, a point over. The matchup tab (Week 1 only): IND offense (W1): 23 ppg, 149 pass (28th), 4.6 ypp (24th), 30% 3rd down (22nd). KC defense: 10 ppg (T2nd), 115 pass allowed (1st), 61 rush allowed (2nd), 3.7 ypp (1st), 9 first downs allowed (1st). Injuries: KC: T Josh Simmons OUT (back), DB Conner OUT, DT Chris Jones Q (calf), CB Delane Q. IND: WR Dulin OUT, RB Giddens Q; TE Mallory IR.

💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: IND 27% of the spread money on 29% of tickets; Over 22% $ / 60% tix; moneyline KC 85% $ / 95% tix. The market-maker: IND 93% $ / 27% tix; Over 4% $ / 30% tix; moneyline KC 64% $ / 67% tix. Tracker: opened -6.4, now -6.5 (home line) — +6.5 everywhere (+101 on the platform); total opened 47.9, now 46.5. Three rating systems (home line): -8.3 / -7.9 / -7.2 vs the market -6.5; projected totals 47.2 / 47.8 vs 46.5. Systems and trends (the Week-2 report): Week-2 0-1 road dog +1 to +6.5 → 26-6 ATS (81%, Grade 75) ON Indianapolis; Second straight home game and favored → 6-19 ATS (Grade 70) FADE Kansas City; Lost by double digits at home in W1 → 28-9 ATS (Grade 70) ON Indianapolis; Big W1 divisional win → ON Kansas City; SNF: home favorite <7 → 58% ON Kansas City; home team off a win → ON Kansas City; 30+ ppg teams 6-20 FADE Kansas City; SNF team off a loss vs team off a win 18-30 FADE Indianapolis; Splits #5 ON Kansas City · #7 primetime majority FADE Kansas City · #8 ON Kansas City · #9 UNDER (46.5+, bets majority); Jones 15-5 ATS as a +3-to-7 road dog; 3-11 vs elite offenses; Jones 34-16 Under as a dog; KC 81-40 Under as a home favorite; series Under 10-2. The network's expert room: Colts +6.5/+7 ×5; Chiefs 0; Under 46.5/47 ×2; Walker O78.5 ×1.

🎯 STAY AWAY on the side — Indianapolis +6.5 printed as the loudest money-versus-model conflict on the card. The Under 46.5 has two sharp layers and four systems against a model a point over; it would be the fourth Under on the card and the cap is three, so it prints at 54 and does not publish. Taylor's under is the leg: the trailing-dog script against a defense that allowed 61 rushing yards last week. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET): Taylor U85.5 holds and improved — the board is at 82.5. The side stays a stay-away, printed: +62 of sharp dollars at the market-maker against three ratings that have Kansas City by more than the number. We do not chase the loudest number on the card into a leg without a model. UPDATE (Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET): Taylor U85.5 holds and keeps improving — 85.5 → 82.5 → 79.5 on the board; grades at −115. The side stays a stay-away, printed for the third time: +59 of sharp dollars at the market-maker against three ratings that have Kansas City by 7.2–8.3. If Chris Jones sits, the Colts' run game gets easier and the Under on Taylor gets harder — the one inactive that argues against a leg on this card, and it posts at 6:50 PM.

The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card

QBINDWATCH

Daniel Jones

Jones U219.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line212 vs 219.5 (−7.5) · avg 218.9

Role · share62% pass

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 62

Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (115 allowed W1) · line 229.5 → 219.5

panel says under (212 median vs 219.5, KC 1st vs pass W1); the AI projection says OVER 242 — model disagreement caps at ★★★ and we sit. Median 212 against 219.5 (−7.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 38% of 2025. 62% pass. Week 1: 166. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (115 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 229.5 → 219.5.

WR1INDWATCH

Alec Pierce

Pierce O44.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—

Projection vs line79 vs 44.5 (+34.5) · avg 67.8

Role · share5.8 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 73

Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (131 allowed W1) · line 42.5 → 44.5

79 median on 44.5 is the biggest cushion on the board — and Kansas City allowed 115 passing yards last week (1st); the one-game rank points the wrong way. Median 79 against 44.5 (+34.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 73% of 2025. 5.8 tgt (16%). Week 1: 61. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (131 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 42.5 → 44.5. WR/CB −0.01 vs N. Williams.

Opp rank the wrong way

WR2INDNO PLAY

Josh Downs

Downs U41.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—

Projection vs line35.5 vs 41.5 (−6.0) · avg 34.7

Role · share5.5 tgt (16%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 44

Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (131 allowed W1) · line 39.5 → 41.5

Median 35.5 against 41.5 (−6.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 5.5 tgt (16%). Week 1: 37. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (131 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 39.5 → 41.5. WR/CB +0.26 vs Sneed.

WR/CB edge

WR3INDNO PLAY

Keenan Allen

Allen O30.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—

Projection vs line31 vs 30.5 (+0.5) · avg 31.4

Role · share6.1 tgt (18%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 67

Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (131 allowed W1) · line 30.5 → 30.5

Median 31 against 30.5 (+0.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. 6.1 tgt (18%). Week 1: 32. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (131 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 30.5 → 30.5. WR/CB +0.03 vs Fulton.

Opp rank the wrong way

RBINDPLAY

Jonathan Taylor

Taylor U85.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.5−115

Projection vs line72 vs 85.5 (−13.5) · avg 83.3

Role · share19.9 att (80%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 41

Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (61 allowed W1) · line 78.5 → 85.5

A 72 median against 85.5 — thirteen yards of cushion on a back who carries 80% of the load for a 6.5-point road dog that trailed badly in Week 1 and threw. Kansas City allowed 61 rushing yards in its opener (2nd), one game, half a point. The under is a script bet, printed as one: if Indianapolis is behind by two scores in the third quarter, Taylor does not get 20 carries. Gameday (10:52 AM ET): board main line 82.5 (U −113), alt 79.5; published 85.5 is three yards better and grades at −115. Pass 3 (3:04 PM ET): board main line 79.5 (U −113) — published 85.5 is +6 of closing value. Chris Jones (KC) Questionable — the one tag that argues against the leg.

Trailing-dog scriptReflex-under shape — printedWindows thin (0.5)Line 85.5 → 82.5 (+3 CLV)Line 85.5 → 79.5 (+6 CLV)C. Jones Q (KC)

TEINDWATCH

Tyler Warren

Warren U42.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—

Projection vs line26 vs 42.5 (−16.5) · avg 33.8

Role · share6.7 tgt (19%)

Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 59

Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (131 allowed W1) · line 45.5 → 42.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 26 against 42.5 (−16.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 41% of 2025. 6.7 tgt (19%). Week 1: 13. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (131 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 45.5 → 42.5.

QBKCWATCH

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes O224.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 8.0—

Projection vs line259 vs 224.5 (+34.5) · avg 251.4

Role · share43% pass

Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 71

Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (304 allowed W1) · line 217.5 → 224.5

Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries thirteen props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 259 against 224.5 (+34.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. 43% pass. Week 1: 184. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (304 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 217.5 → 224.5.

WR1KCWATCH

Rashee Rice

Rice O/U 50.5 rec yds—

Projection vs line— vs 50.5 (panel windows not readable — short sample)

Role · share5.8 rec on 9 tgt

Hit windowssweep row only — not paneled

Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (324 allowed W1) · opened 53.5

The panel could not be read for windows or a median (a new-team or short-sample player); the sweep row and the share are printed, and the tile is rated WATCH until a full panel reads.

Short sample — WATCH

WR2KCNO PLAY

Xavier Worthy

Worthy O37.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—

Projection vs line38 vs 37.5 (+0.5) · avg 37

Role · share5.3 tgt (15%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 50

Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (324 allowed W1) · line 39.5 → 37.5

Median 38 against 37.5 (+0.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 5.3 tgt (15%). Week 1: 18. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (324 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 39.5 → 37.5. WR/CB +0.15 vs C. Ward.

WR3KCNO PLAY

Tyquan Thornton

Thornton U14.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—

Projection vs line0 vs 14.5 (−14.5) · avg 16.6

Role · share1.3 tgt (3%)

Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 0 · 2025 57

Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (324 allowed W1) · line 14.5 → 14.5

Median 0 against 14.5 (−14.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 43% of 2025. 1.3 tgt (3%). Week 1: 0. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (324 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 14.5 → 14.5. WR/CB +0.20 vs Sauce Gardner.

Opp rank the wrong wayWR/CB edge

RBKCWATCH

Kenneth Walker III

Walker U80.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—

Projection vs line79.5 vs 80.5 (−1.0) · avg 83.6

Role · share16.2 att (52%)

Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 80 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 35

Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (202 allowed W1) · line 75.5 → 80.5

173 last week; the 79.5 median is Seattle's — a transfer priced off another team's usage, sitting on the number. Median 79.5 against 80.5 (−1.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 65% of 2025. 16.2 att (52%). Week 1: 173. Opponent rank 30 on the stat (202 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 75.5 → 80.5.

Opp rank the wrong way

TEKCWATCH

Travis Kelce

Kelce O42.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—

Projection vs line44 vs 42.5 (+1.5) · avg 44.8

Role · share6.5 tgt (18%)

Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 (over side) · 2026 100 · 2025 71

Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (324 allowed W1) · line 39.5 → 42.5

Median 44 against 42.5 (+1.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. 6.5 tgt (18%). Week 1: 71. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (324 allowed) is a one-game number and scores half a point at most. Line 39.5 → 42.5.

Screened and declined, on the record: Brissett O220.5 (the one Conflicts read — Seattle 8th vs pass in one game — and a third Arizona passing leg would be one position thrice); Chase O75.5 (Higgins carries the Cincinnati read; 12 yards last week; Burrow Q); Olave O71.5 (Questionable); Lamar U211.5 (cut 14 from the open — spent); D. Jones U219.5 and C. Williams O229.5 (the AI projection disagrees with the panel — capped at ★★★ and sat); Walker O80.5 (a Seattle median on a Kansas City line); Pierce O44.5 (79 median, Kansas City 1st vs receiving yards in one game — Conflicts); Hollins O35.5 and D. Douglas (the two best WR/CB edges on the board, against a Pittsburgh coverage that allowed 143 in Week 1); W. Robinson O37.5 (29% share into Philadelphia's 6th-ranked coverage, −0.19 vs DeJean); Smith-Njigba O81.5 (six yards of cushion with a backup quarterback); Kittle O39.5, Samuel O35.5 (Miami 5th vs receiving yards in one game); Cousins U192.5 (cut 16 — spent); Juwan Johnson O39.5 (raised nine into Baltimore's 7th-ranked coverage); P. Washington O59.5 (−0.20 in the slot); McCaffrey O59.5 (a 42% 2025 window); Pitts O31.5 (new QB, a zero last week); Warren O44.5 (67% pass offense); Chase Brown O55.5 (Houston 8th vs rush, Burrow Q); Montgomery U63.5 (a Detroit backup's sample priced as Houston's starter — mirage). Every one is a rated tile above. The Raiders' receivers had no posted lines at capture — NO LINE tiles are the reason the LV board is short.

The ledger

Sides (6): Vikings +4.5 (57), Bengals +2.5 (56, conditional on Burrow), Commanders +4.5 (55), Broncos −2.5 (54), Raiders +6.5 (53), Falcons +2.5 (53). Totals (3): LV–LAC Under 43.5 (57), PIT–NE Under 41.5 (55), MIA–SF Under 44.5 (53). Props (13): Wilson O37.5 (8.0), McBride O59.5 (8.0), Achane O59.5 (8.0), Henry O93.5 (7.0), Pollard O41.5 (7.0), Etienne O41.5 (7.0), Odunze O39.5 (7.0), Hurts U206.5 (7.0), Kupp O24.5 (6.5), Taylor U85.5 (6.5), Shough O231.5 (6.0 cap), Higgins O55.5 (6.0 cap), Dobbins O59.5 (6.0 cap). Correlation, printed: Wilson and McBride are one Arizona passing game; Shough and Etienne are one Saints offense, and a Baltimore blowout feeds Henry against both; Pollard and Hurts are one Philadelphia–Tennessee script; the three Unders are one position (the cap); Vikings +4.5 and Odunze over are one competitive-game script. Conditional legs: Bengals +2.5, Higgins O55.5 — off if Burrow is scratched; Shough O231.5 sized at the cap because Olave is Questionable. Price note: every leg published Sat Sep 19 · 1:49 AM ET at the platform's board price and grades there. Pass 3 (Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET): platform back at 2:48 PM ET — displayed prices on the unkicked legs re-read from the 2:50 PM games board and the 3:02 PM props board (published price shows as "was"); Nevada tracker and both books' splits 2:58–2:59 PM; official 4:05/4:25 inactives from the league feed 2:49 PM. No legs added, no lines or sides changed. Inactives (Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET): 1 PM inactives folded in from the league box-score feed (2:07 PM ET) — Burrow ACTIVE, Olave ACTIVE, Terrell ACTIVE, Tua OUT; our data platform was dark at 2:04–2:05 PM ET, so no displayed price changed in this pass; the 4:05/4:25 PM inactives (Harvey, McConkey, Bowers) are folded in when they post. Gameday (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET): displayed prices are the platform's 10:44–10:49 AM board (the published price shows as "was"); team lines from the eight-book Nevada tracker and both books' splits at 10:45 AM; designations from the league feed at 10:46 AM — the 1 PM inactives (11:30) post after this pass. Four confidences re-sized with reasons in the verdicts; no legs added, no lines or sides changed. Gates: Match Details on all 14 games; the 13-market Props sweep in full (10,199 of 10,758 rows); 163 positional-board panels (26 short-sample panels rated from the sweep row and printed as such; the Raiders' receivers had no lines); the second opinion on every game (two books, four-book tracker with openers, three ratings, the Week-2 systems report, a 162-pick expert room, the WR/CB tool on every receiver tile, the AI QB projections on page 1 of 2); weather at every outdoor kickoff. Not read this pass: the fantasy-score medians (the PP lines are on the sweep but the fantasy panels were not opened — next pass), the receiving-chart zone maps (the panel text did not carry the headline at capture; next pass), the Monday game. Gameday pass owed before 1:00 PM ET: re-pull the board and both books; Saturday practice-report designations and Sunday inactives (Burrow, Olave, Flowers, Bowers, Harvey, McConkey, Pittman, Terrell); re-open panels on the prop legs; update displayed prices.

Sourcing: our data platform (games board, Match Details, Props board, Market Details panels; captured Sat Sep 19, 1:13–1:40 AM ET); a Las Vegas betting network's money splits from the public book and the Vegas market-making book, four-book Nevada tracker with openers, three power-rating systems, the Week-2 analytics report, the expert room, the WR/CB matchup tool and the AI player projections (1:14–1:23 AM ET); Open-Meteo at each outdoor kickoff hour (1:24 AM ET); beat coverage of the week's quarterback changes via the platform's injury tabs. Every published leg grades at its first-published price.

What changed on this card

5 updates · newest first

Sat Sep 19 · 1:49 AM ET First publish — 9 sides/totals, 13 props, 14 game blocks, 163 tiles (13 PLAY). Sources: platform games board 1:13 AM, Match Details on all 14 games 1:14–1:18 AM, Props sweep 1:19–1:21 AM, 163 panels 1:26–1:40 AM; two-book splits 1:14 AM, tracker 1:15 AM, ratings 1:15 AM, Week-2 systems report 1:18 AM, expert room 1:18 AM, WR/CB tool 1:20 AM, AI QB projections 1:23 AM; Open-Meteo 1:24 AM.

Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET GAMEDAY PASS (Sun Sep 20 · 10:52 AM ET) — platform UP 10:44 AM ET, second opinion UP 10:45 AM. Designations (league feed 10:46 AM): Darnold OUT (SEA — Kupp O24.5 dissent printed, stays published), Flowers OUT (BAL — Henry firms; board 94.5/95.5), Pittman OUT (PIT), Murray OUT/Jennings OUT (MIN), Collins OUT (HOU), Mims OUT (DEN), O'Connell OUT (LV); still Questionable at 10:46: Burrow, Olave, Harvey, McConkey, Terrell; Bowers Doubtful; Tua Doubtful. Both books' splits + eight-book tracker at 10:45 AM folded into every carded game with tags. Four re-sizes with reasons: Commanders 55→50 (line to 3.5 at the public book, spread dollars Dallas at both books), Falcons 53→48 (both books' dollars Carolina — no money layer), PIT–NE Under 55→50 (books disagree by dollars; market-maker Over 82% $), Bengals held 56 conditional on Burrow. Prices refreshed on 14 legs (published price carried as odds_open; Dobbins +100 → −122, Bengals +104 → +111, MIA–SF Under −100 → +104); Hurts (206.5 → 209.5), Taylor (85.5 → 82.5) and Henry (93.5 → 94.5/95.5) all gained closing value. No legs added, no lines or sides changed. 1 PM inactives (11:30) post after this pass.

Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET INACTIVES PASS 1 (Sun Sep 20 · 2:07 PM ET) — SHORT RUN: our data platform DARK at 2:04, 2:04:45 and 2:05:23 PM ET (0 prices after one reload); the second opinion UP 2:05 PM. 1 PM inactives from the league box-score feed (2:07 PM ET): Burrow ACTIVE (Bengals +2.5 and Higgins O55.5 live, grade as published), Olave ACTIVE (Shough leg live), Terrell ACTIVE, Tua OUT (Rush started, as priced). No prices refreshed (platform dark), no legs added, no lines or sides changed, no re-sizes. 4:05/4:25 PM inactives (Harvey, McConkey, Bowers) folded in when they post.

Sun Sep 20 · 2:38 PM ET INACTIVES PASS 2 (Sun Sep 20 · 2:38 PM ET) — 4:05 PM window, read 2:37 PM ET from the league feed (official inactives not yet posted to it) plus a national report that RJ Harvey is not expected to play: Dobbins O59.5 volume read firms (cap stays as scored), Broncos −2.5 holds 54; Bowers Doubtful / McConkey Q unchanged — LV–LAC Under 43.5 (57) and Raiders +6.5 (53) hold. Platform still dark — no prices refreshed; no legs added, no lines or sides changed.

Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET PASS 3 (Sun Sep 20 · 3:04 PM ET) — platform back UP 2:48 PM ET (90 prices after a 30-second hydrate); second opinion UP. Official 4:05/4:25 inactives (league feed 2:49 PM): Harvey OUT (Dobbins' volume read firms; cap stays as scored), McConkey active, Bowers Doubtful, Charbonnet OUT (SEA), Luvu OUT (WAS), Overshown/Hooker OUT (DAL), Chop Robinson OUT (MIA); Chris Jones Q (KC) for SNF. Prices re-read on the eleven unkicked legs: Broncos −111 → −108, Commanders −113 → −108, MIA–SF Under +104 → −100 (published prices carry as odds_open); six props unchanged. Taylor's board line 79.5 (+6 CLV on 85.5). Both books' splits 2:58 PM + tracker 2:59 PM folded in: DEN ALIGNED (+22/+31), LV–LAC Under +47 at the market-maker, MIA–SF Under ALIGNED (+8/+30), IND +59 at the market-maker (stay-away, printed). No legs added, no lines or sides changed, no re-sizes.

NFL Week 2, Sunday: Six Dogs the Sharp Dollars Want, Three Unders and No More, and a Positional Board Built After the Week's Quarterback Carnage

Week 2 Sunday: six dogs the sharp dollars want, three Unders and no more, and a positional board built after the week's quarterback carnage

Packers @ Jets — Week 2

Steelers @ Patriots — Week 2

Saints @ Ravens — Week 2

Vikings @ Bears — Week 2

Eagles @ Titans — Week 2

Browns @ Buccaneers — Week 2

Bengals @ Texans — Week 2

Panthers @ Falcons — Week 2

Raiders @ Chargers — Week 2

Jaguars @ Broncos — Week 2

Dolphins @ 49ers — Week 2

Seahawks @ Cardinals — Week 2

Commanders @ Cowboys — Week 2

Colts @ Chiefs — Sunday Night Football

The ledger

What changed on this card

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