Week 3 Sunday: five dogs the sharp dollars want, two Unders, four stay-aways the rule forced, and a positional board with 168 tiles
Fourteen games, every one with a verdict, 168 players rated across the positional boards (10 of them NO LINE POSTED — Nabers, Garrett Wilson, Kyler Murray and Malik Willis among them). The week's news is quarterbacks again: Jayden Daniels is OUT (Mariota starts for Washington), Darnold is back for Seattle, Kyler Murray is back for Minnesota, Winston starts for the Giants with Dart on IR, Watson makes his second start for Cleveland, and Nacua is Doubtful for the Rams. The card publishes five sides (Browns +2.5, Colts +1.5, Dolphins +10.5, Buccaneers +1.5, Cardinals +8.5) and two totals (KC–MIA Under 45.5, LAR–DEN Under 44.5), and stays away by rule from four games where the two books' sharp dollars sit on opposite teams (NE–JAX, BAL–DAL on the total, LV–NO on the total, LAR–DEN on the side) and from the money-versus-model conflict in Detroit. 11 props — nine exceed-side reads and two unders — every one with its why on the tile. The Week-3 analytics report's systems, both books' splits, the eight-book tracker with openers, three ratings, the WR/CB tool and the AI quarterback projections are argued in every game. Full universe on the NFL Insights Board.
Game-state groups on this card (Lesson 10): Miami-stays-inside-two-scores → Dolphins +10.5 + Under 45.5 + Achane O59.5 (three legs, one script — the largest group on the card, printed as such); Arizona-throws-and-hangs-around → Cardinals +8.5 + Brissett O224.5 (two); Rams-grind-it → Under 44.5 + K. Williams O49.5 (two); Baltimore-runs → Henry O89.5 + Lamar U239.5 (two); the Browns, Colts and Buccaneers legs are one each; Johnson, Stevenson, Brown, Kupp, Gibbs and Robinson are independent player reads. No total Under sits alongside a volume over from the same offense — the Friday ledger's state-conflict rule, applied.
How to read the money. "The public book" is a major U.S. book; "the market-maker" is the Vegas market-making book; "our data platform" is the platform whose Match Details, panels and prices drive every tile. CONTRARIAN = the public book's tickets 65%+ on the other side. SHARP = the market-maker's dollars ten points ahead of its tickets on our side. RLM = tickets 65% one way and the line moved the other way. Two books' sharp dollars on opposite sides = STAY AWAY, no exceptions. Opponent ranks are two-game 2026 numbers and score a point at most. Every published price is the platform's price at capture (captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET); a published leg grades at that price forever, and the card displays the market if it moves.
Titans @ Giants — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · CBSVenue
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
65°F, 30% rain, wind 20 mph (gusts 41) — the windiest kickoff on the slate
Line
NYG -2.5 (+100) on our data platform · Titans +3 at one Nevada book (Wynn); +2.5 everywhere else (platform −102) · Giants −2.5 +100 on the platform
Total
37.5 · opened 43.0, Nevada 37–38 (38 at two Nevada books)
⚡ THE JUICE. The number has traveled six points since it opened — Giants −6 at the market-maker Thursday, −2.5 everywhere now — and the market-maker's dollars are 83% Tennessee on 52% of tickets (+31, SHARP). The public book is a coin flip (48/51). The three ratings say the Giants by 1.5 to 2.7, so the move has already found the fair number; what was a 3.5-point edge on Thursday is a half-point today. Two systems play Tennessee (0-2 teams vs 1-1 teams, 42-19-1 ATS; road teams 5-1 in this series), two play the Giants (the rebound-off-bad-ypp system, Winston 0-7-1 ATS vs poor offenses), and the retread-coach systems fade both sidelines. The total is the louder story: 43 at the open, 37.5 now, 93% of the platform's total money and 100% of the market-maker's on the Under, with 20-mph wind and 41-mph gusts forecast at kickoff — and both projection systems (40.7 / 39.9) are three points OVER the number. Nabers has no receiving line posted. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Spears (RB) Questionable, ankle — Pollard's partner. Nabers carried no receiving line at capture. Winston starts for Dart (IR).
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: TEN 48% of the spread money on 51% of tickets; Over 2% $ / 28% tix; moneyline TEN 50% $ / 49% tix. The market-maker: TEN 83% $ / 52% tix; Over 0% $ / 11% tix; moneyline TEN 83% $ / 86% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 53/47 bets, 58/42 money to Tennessee; spread 55/45 bets, 62/38 money to Tennessee; total 28/72 bets and 7/93 money to the UNDER. Tracker: opened -6.0, now -2.5 (home line) — Titans +3 at one Nevada book (Wynn); +2.5 everywhere else (platform −102) · Giants −2.5 +100 on the platform; total opened 43.0, now 37–38 (38 at two Nevada books). Three rating systems (home line): -2.7 / -1.5 / -2.2 vs the market -2.5; projected totals 40.7 / 39.9 vs 37.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): 0-2 teams vs 1-1 teams in W3 → 42-19-1 ATS ON Tennessee (Trap #1); Allowed >6.5 ypp W1-2 rebound → 29-16 ATS ON NY Giants (Trap #4); TEN 25-16 ATS off a home loss; NYG 25-15 ATS short rest; Winston 0-7-1 ATS vs poor offenses; TEN 15-38-1 ATS Sundays (2 plays each side); Road teams 5-1 in series → ON Tennessee; Retread coaches (Saleh, Harbaugh): games 1-8 38.2% ATS → FADE both; off a loss 44.3% → FADE both; as favorites 42.4% → FADE NYG; Winston 12-2 OVER vs poor teams (AJ's Angle) vs NYG 62-40 UNDER since 2020; any team ≤15 PPG → Over 29-15 (Trap #10); DK splits #8 one-win-difference majority bets → ON Tennessee. The network's expert room: Titans 4, Giants 1; Under 2, Over 1.
🎯 STAY AWAY on the side — Titans +2.5 prints at 52 as a sharp-money lean whose edge has been spent (−6 → −2.5). The Over 37.5 prints as the model-only lean (three points of projection) and does not publish: every dollar in the market is on the Under and the wind is real. Wan'Dale Robinson's over is the leg in this game — a slot receiver's short throws in a game the books expect to be ugly.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBTENWATCH
Cam Ward
Ward U199.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line176.5 vs 199.5 (−23.0) · avg 173.2
Role · share57/43 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 194.5 → 199.5
Median 176.5 against 199.5 (−23.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 57/43 pass/run. 2026: 140, 183. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 194.5 → 199.5.
WR1TENWATCH
Carnell Tate
Tate O/U 39.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line32.5 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 39.5
Role · shareCarnell WR 11 24.4%
Hit windows2026 0% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (251 allowed) · opened 36.5
A current-season panel only: 38, 27 in 2 games against a 39.5 line, Carnell WR 11 24.4%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player.
WR2TENPLAY
Wan'Dale Robinson
Robinson O31.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.5−113
Projection vs line42 vs 31.5 (+10.5) · avg 56.7
Role · shareWan'Dale WR 7 15.6%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 75.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (251 allowed) · line 34.5 → 31.5
A 42 median on 31.5, over in eight of ten and 75% of 2025, 38 in Week 1, at 16% of Tennessee's targets against a Giants secondary allowing 251 receiving yards a game (23rd, two games). The line came down three from the open. The WR/CB tool docks him (−0.17 vs Andru Phillips) and that prints. The wind at MetLife (20 mph, gusts to 41) is the other dissent — it hurts the deep ball, and his are short.
WR3TENWATCH
Elic Ayomanor
Ayomanor O14.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line27 vs 14.5 (+12.5) · avg 31.8
Role · shareElic WR 6 13.3%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 75.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (251 allowed) · line 16.5 → 14.5
Median 27 against 14.5 (+12.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 75% of 2025. Elic WR 6 13.3%. 2026: 11, 69. Opponent rank 23 on the stat (251 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 16.5 → 14.5.
RBTENWATCH
Tony Pollard
Pollard O59.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line62 vs 59.5 (+2.5) · avg 70.1
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (116 allowed) · line 48.5 → 59.5
62 median on 59.5 with the line raised eleven from 48.5 — the market is pricing Spears' tag, and a backfield partner's tag caps the leg. Median 62 against 59.5 (+2.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 35, 64. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (116 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 48.5 → 59.5. backfield partner Spears Questionable (ankle).
TETENNO PLAY
Gunnar Helm
Helm U19.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—
Projection vs line19 vs 19.5 (−0.5) · avg 22.6
Role · shareGunnar TE 7 15.6%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 23 (251 allowed) · line 24.5 → 19.5
Median 19 against 19.5 (−0.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. Gunnar TE 7 15.6%. 2026: 28, 13. Opponent rank 23 on the stat (251 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 24.5 → 19.5.
QBNYGWATCH
Jameis Winston
Winston O/U 203.5 pass yds—
Projection vs line111 (2026 only, 1 game) vs 203.5
Role · share53/47 pass/run
Hit windows2026 0% (1) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · opened 196.5
A current-season panel only: 111 in 1 game against a 203.5 line, 53/47 pass/run. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player. starting for Dart (IR).
WR1NYGNO LINE POSTED
Malik Nabers
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
No receiving-yards line on the board for the Giants' WR1 at capture — the books pulled him (the panel's target table shows 13 targets, 21% share, with Winston at quarterback). No line, no grade.
WR2NYGWATCH
Malachi Fields
Fields O/U 24.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line27.5 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 24.5
Role · shareMalachi WR 10 16.4%
Hit windows2026 100% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 19 (239.5 allowed) · opened 25.5
A current-season panel only: 25, 30 in 2 games against a 24.5 line, Malachi WR 10 16.4%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player.
WR3NYGWATCH
Darnell Mooney
Mooney O17.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line30.5 vs 17.5 (+13.0) · avg 32.8
Role · shareDarnell WR 5 8.2%
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 100.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 67.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 19 (239.5 allowed) · line 24.5 → 17.5
30.5 median on 17.5 with 27 and 48 this season and the line cut seven — an 8% share, a −0.08 WR/CB read and 41-mph gusts on a deep-ball receiver keep it WATCH. Median 30.5 against 17.5 (+13.0); over in 90% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. Darnell WR 5 8.2%. 2026: 27, 48. Opponent rank 19 on the stat (239.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 24.5 → 17.5. WR/CB −0.08 vs Marcus Harris.
RBNYGNO PLAY
Cam Skattebo
Skattebo U59.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.5—
Projection vs line59.5 vs 59.5 (−0.0) · avg 52.7
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (120.5 allowed) · line 54.5 → 59.5
Median 59.5 against 59.5 (−0.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 81, 36. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (120.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 54.5 → 59.5.
TENYGWATCH
Isaiah Likely
Likely U39.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 8.0—
Projection vs line26 vs 39.5 (−13.5) · avg 31.5
Role · shareIsaiah TE 18 29.5%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 14.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 19 (239.5 allowed) · line 43.5 → 39.5
26 median on 39.5 for the under — under in eight of ten and 86% of 2025 — but 78 in Week 1 with Winston and a 29.5% target share is the volume the under has to survive. Median 26 against 39.5 (−13.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 86% of 2025. Isaiah TE 18 29.5%. 2026: 78, 33. Opponent rank 19 on the stat (239.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 43.5 → 39.5.
Seahawks @ Commanders — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · FOXVenue
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
69°F, 26% rain, wind 14 mph (gusts 25)
Line
WAS +7.5 (+104) on our data platform · Commanders +8 at one Nevada book (Stations); +7.5 elsewhere (platform +104) · Seahawks −7.5 −104 on the platform
Total
40.5 · opened 42.0, Nevada 40 (40.5 at one book)
⚡ THE JUICE. Jayden Daniels is OUT (elbow) and Marcus Mariota starts; the line went from Seattle −2 at the open to −7.5, and every dollar followed it — 84% of the public book's money, 79% of the market-maker's, 95% of the platform's moneyline money. The ratings have Seattle by 7.1 to 11.2 (average 8.6), a point past the number, so the models are with the crowd. The systems fade the favorite: the best defenses (14 PPG or fewer allowed) favored by 3+ in Week 3 are 14-31-1 ATS, undefeated teams outscoring opponents by 25+ are 19-31-2, and the ≥77%-handle-on-a-big-favorite system is 14-26 ATS — against a Washington team that is 25-41 ATS off a loss. The total (40.5 → 40) has the market-maker's dollars 62% Over on 29% of tickets (+33, SHARP Over) against Seattle's 21-5 Under as a road favorite in non-divisional NFC games and both Over-handle trap systems pointing Under. Darnold is back at quarterback for Seattle after Lock's Week 2. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Daniels (QB) OUT, elbow — Mariota starts; Okonkwo (TE) OUT; Charbonnet (RB) OUT. Darnold is back at quarterback for Seattle after Lock started Week 2.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: SEA 84% of the spread money on 82% of tickets; Over 59% $ / 52% tix; moneyline SEA 86% $ / 94% tix. The market-maker: SEA 79% $ / 75% tix; Over 62% $ / 29% tix; moneyline SEA 98% $ / 83% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 97/3 bets, 95/5 money to Seattle; spread 79/21 bets, 74/26 money to Seattle; total 57/43 bets Over but 19/81 money to the UNDER. Tracker: opened +2.0, now +7.5 (home line) — Commanders +8 at one Nevada book (Stations); +7.5 elsewhere (platform +104) · Seahawks −7.5 −104 on the platform; total opened 42.0, now 40 (40.5 at one book). Three rating systems (home line): +7.1 / +11.2 / +7.5 vs the market +7.5; projected totals 41.0 / 40.1 vs 40.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): Best defenses (≤14 PPG) favored by 3+ in W3 → 14-31-1 ATS FADE Seattle (Trap #5); undefeated +25 diff → 19-31-2 ATS FADE Seattle (Trap #8); WAS 25-41 ATS off a SU loss → FADE Washington; SEA 21-5 UNDER as road favorite vs non-divisional NFC → PLAY UNDER 40.5; Road teams 6-2 in series → ON Seattle; DK splits #1 (>68% handle on road side) → ON Seattle; #6 (≥77% handle on 6.5+ favorite) → FADE Seattle; #11/#12 Over-handle traps → UNDER instead. The network's expert room: Seahawks 3, Commanders 1; Under 1.
🎯 STAY AWAY on the side — the public, the sharps and the models are on the same team at a number the models call fair, and the systems say that shape loses. The total is a stay-away too: sharp Over money against the Under systems. The props are the game: Kupp's slot matchup (+0.56, the tool's largest edge) is the leg; Smith-Njigba's 99.5 is priced for his 44% share and stays rated.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBSEAWATCH
Sam Darnold
Darnold U221.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line200 vs 221.5 (−21.5) · avg 194.8
Role · share46/54 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 55.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 222.5 → 221.5
Median 200 against 221.5 (−21.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 45% of 2025. 46/54 pass/run. 2026: 13. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 222.5 → 221.5. back at quarterback after Lock started Week 2.
WR1SEAWATCH
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba U99.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line94 vs 99.5 (−5.5) · avg 93.3
Role · shareJaxon WR 22 44.0%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (241 allowed) · line 86.5 → 99.5
94 median on 99.5 with 122 and 155 this season, 44% of the targets and +0.42 on the WR/CB tool — the 99.5 line is priced for that; the tool's largest advantage on the board, rated and not bet on the number. Median 94 against 99.5 (−5.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. Jaxon WR 22 44.0%. 2026: 122, 155. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (241 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 86.5 → 99.5. WR/CB +0.42 vs Amik Robertson (advantage 1.91, 1st on the board). QB Darnold back — Week 2 was Lock.
WR2SEANO PLAY
Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed U29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line17.5 vs 29.5 (−12.0) · avg 26.8
Role · shareRashid WR 9 18.0%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 52.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (241 allowed) · line 26.5 → 29.5
Median 17.5 against 29.5 (−12.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 48% of 2025. Rashid WR 9 18.0%. 2026: 4, 35. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (241 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 26.5 → 29.5. WR/CB +0.41 vs Rasul Douglas. QB Darnold back.
WR3SEAPLAY
Cooper Kupp
Kupp O21.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5−113
Projection vs line35.5 vs 21.5 (+14.0) · avg 36.7
Role · shareCooper WR 5 10.0%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 89.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (241 allowed) · line 21.5 → 21.5
A 35.5 median on 21.5, over in eight of ten and 89% of 2025, 35 in Week 1 with Darnold — who is back this week after Lock started the 20-yard game. The WR/CB tool has him at +0.56 against Sainristil in the slot, the largest edge on the entire board. Washington is 20th against receiving yards. The dissent is the share (10%) and a game Seattle may put away by the third quarter with Mariota on the other side.
RBSEAWATCH
Jadarian Price
Price O/U 49.5 rush yds—
Projection vs line52 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 49.5
Role · shareJadarian RB 23 37.1%
Hit windows2026 100% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (101 allowed) · opened 46.5
A current-season panel only: 52, 52 in 2 games against a 49.5 line, Jadarian RB 23 37.1%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player. Charbonnet OUT — split with E. Wilson.
TESEANO PLAY
AJ Barner
Barner U21.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—
Projection vs line20.5 vs 21.5 (−1.0) · avg 24.8
Role · shareAJ TE 3 6.0%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 65.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 20 (241 allowed) · line 23.5 → 21.5
Median 20.5 against 21.5 (−1.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 35% of 2025. AJ TE 3 6.0%. 2026: 13, 8. Opponent rank 20 on the stat (241 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 23.5 → 21.5. QB Darnold back.
QBWASWATCH
Marcus Mariota
Mariota U170.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line161 vs 170.5 (−9.5) · avg 144.3
Role · share52/48 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 55.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 203.5 → 170.5
161 median on 170.5 — the AI model projects 238 (OVER, two stars) and the panel says under; model disagreement, one 2026 game (111), WATCH. Median 161 against 170.5 (−9.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 45% of 2025. 52/48 pass/run. 2026: 111. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 203.5 → 170.5. first start of 2026 for Daniels (OUT, elbow).
WR1WASNO PLAY
Stefon Diggs
Diggs O39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line41.5 vs 39.5 (+2.0) · avg 52.0
Role · shareStefon WR 15 23.8%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 48.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (136.5 allowed) · line 34.5 → 39.5
Median 41.5 against 39.5 (+2.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 48% of 2025. Stefon WR 15 23.8%. 2026: 55, 47. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (136.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 34.5 → 39.5. WR/CB −0.22 vs Devon Witherspoon. QB change — Mariota starts for Daniels (OUT).
WR2WASWATCH
Terry McLaurin
McLaurin O49.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line55.5 vs 49.5 (+6.0) · avg 57.1
Role · shareTerry WR 13 20.6%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 70.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (136.5 allowed) · line 39.5 → 49.5
55.5 median on 49.5 at +122 — Seattle is 1st against receiving yards (Conflicts) and Mariota is the quarterback; 14 last week. Median 55.5 against 49.5 (+6.0); over in 80% of the last ten and 70% of 2025. Terry WR 13 20.6%. 2026: 14, 50. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (136.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 39.5 → 49.5. WR/CB −0.02 vs Josh Jobe. QB change — Mariota starts for Daniels (OUT).
WR3WASWATCH
Dyami Brown
Brown U10.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line0 vs 10.5 (−10.5) · avg 5.4
Role · shareDyami WR 8 12.7%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 43.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 1 (136.5 allowed) · line 5.5 → 10.5
Median 0 against 10.5 (−10.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 57% of 2025. Dyami WR 8 12.7%. 2026: 0, 21. Opponent rank 1 on the stat (136.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 5.5 → 10.5. WR/CB −0.05 vs Nehemiah Pritchett. QB change — Mariota starts.
RBWASNO PLAY
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Croskey-Merritt U39.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line31 vs 39.5 (−8.5) · avg 47.1
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 35.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 9 (89.5 allowed) · line 44.5 → 39.5
Median 31 against 39.5 (−8.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 65% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 63, 43. Opponent rank 9 on the stat (89.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 44.5 → 39.5. QB change — Mariota starts.
TEWASNO LINE POSTED
Washington TE
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
Chig Okonkwo is OUT (hamstring) and no Washington tight end carried a receiving line at capture. Nothing to rate.
Texans @ Colts — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · CBSVenue
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN · Dome
Weather at kickoff
Indoors (dome)
Line
IND +1.5 (−100) on our data platform · Colts +2 at three Nevada books; +1.5 on the platform (−100) · Texans −1.5 +100 on the platform
Total
42.5 · opened 44.5, Nevada 42.5 (43 at one book)
⚡ THE JUICE. All three rating systems project the home dog as the favorite — Indianapolis by 0.3, 0.7 and 2.2 against a market that has Houston −1.5 — and that is the ANGLE tag: every published rating on the dog's side. The market-maker's dollars are 50% Houston on 68% of tickets, which is 50% Indianapolis on 32% (+18, SHARP), and its moneyline money is 90% Colts on 43% of tickets (+47). The line has come from Houston −3 to −1.5. The public book is the dissent: 74% of its spread money on Houston on 52% of tickets (+22), and the platform's spread money is 79% Houston. Four systems play the Colts (the rebound-off-bad-ypp system, Steichen 14-5 ATS vs poor offenses, Daniel Jones 22-17 ATS off a loss, dogs 7-1 ATS in the last eight of this rivalry); one fades them (divisional majority-bets). Nico Collins is OUT for Houston. The total is a money-versus-model split: the Effective Strength projection is the biggest OVER edge on the board (+3.0) while the market-maker's total money is 95% UNDER on 60% of tickets and the public book's is 52% Under on 32%. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Collins (WR1) OUT, hamstring; Dulin (WR) OUT; T. Brown (T) Questionable; Ingram (G) OUT — Houston's right side is patched.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: HOU 74% of the spread money on 52% of tickets; Over 48% $ / 68% tix; moneyline HOU 68% $ / 55% tix. The market-maker: HOU 50% $ / 68% tix; Over 5% $ / 40% tix; moneyline HOU 10% $ / 57% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 52/48 bets, 56/44 money to Houston; spread 56/44 bets, 79/21 money to Houston; total 69/31 bets and 76/24 money to the Over. Tracker: opened +3.0, now +1.5 (home line) — Colts +2 at three Nevada books; +1.5 on the platform (−100) · Texans −1.5 +100 on the platform; total opened 44.5, now 42.5 (43 at one book). Three rating systems (home line): -0.3 / -0.7 / -2.2 vs the market +1.5; projected totals 45.5 / 44.9 vs 42.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): Allowed >6.5 ypp rebound → 29-16 ATS ON Indianapolis (Trap #4); Steichen 14-5 ATS vs poor offenses; D. Jones 22-17 ATS off an outright loss → ON Indianapolis; D. Jones 34-17 UNDER as a dog → PLAY UNDER 42.5; Dogs 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the series → ON Indianapolis; DK splits #1 → ON Houston; #2 divisional majority handle → FADE Houston; #3 divisional majority bets → FADE Indianapolis; Effective Strength: biggest OVER edge on the board (+3.0 at 42.5). The network's expert room: Texans 6, Colts 5; Under 3.
🎯 INDIANAPOLIS +1.5 (−100 on the platform; +2 at three Nevada books — take the 2) — conviction 56. Sharp dollars at the market-maker, the ANGLE (three ratings project the dog as the favorite), four record-backed systems and a line that has moved toward the Colts. The argument against: the public book's dollars are Houston (+22 over tickets there) and so is the platform's spread money — the money layers disagree by book, which is why this is 56 and not 58. The total is a STAY AWAY: both books' cash is Under, both models are Over, printed.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card
QBHOUNO PLAY
C.J. Stroud
Stroud U249.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line247 vs 249.5 (−2.5) · avg 242.8
Role · share67/33 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 25.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 223.5 → 249.5
Median 247 against 249.5 (−2.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 75% of 2025. 67/33 pass/run. 2026: 274, 353. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 223.5 → 249.5.
WR1HOUWATCH
Xavier Hutchinson
Hutchinson U39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line26.5 vs 39.5 (−13.0) · avg 29.8
Role · shareXavier WR 15 17.2%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 21.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (353 allowed) · line 35.5 → 39.5
26.5 median on 39.5 for the under with Collins OUT — the targets move to him, and Indianapolis is 32nd; Conflicts twice. Median 26.5 against 39.5 (−13.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 79% of 2025. Xavier WR 15 17.2%. 2026: 32, 37. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (353 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 35.5 → 39.5. WR/CB −0.05 vs Sauce Gardner. WR1 Collins OUT — targets move.
WR2HOUWATCH
Kayshon Boutte
Boutte U39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line27 vs 39.5 (−12.5) · avg 33.1
Role · shareKayshon WR 7 8.0%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 39.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (353 allowed) · line 35.5 → 39.5
27 median on 39.5 for the under — Indianapolis is 32nd against receiving yards, wrong way, Conflicts. Median 27 against 39.5 (−12.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 61% of 2025. Kayshon WR 7 8.0%. 2026: 21, 37. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (353 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 35.5 → 39.5. WR/CB −0.07 vs Charvarius Ward. Collins OUT — targets move.
WR3HOUWATCH
Jaylin Noel
Noel U27.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line6 vs 27.5 (−21.5) · avg 16.3
Role · shareJaylin WR 7 8.0%
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 21.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (353 allowed) · line 27.5 → 27.5
Median 6 against 27.5 (−21.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 79% of 2025. Jaylin WR 7 8.0%. 2026: 53, 31. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (353 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 27.5 → 27.5. WR/CB −0.00 vs Justin Walley. Collins OUT — targets move.
RBHOUWATCH
Woody Marks
Marks O27.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line56 vs 27.5 (+28.5) · avg 53.4
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 40.0 (under side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 39.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (177 allowed) · line 27.5 → 27.5
56 median on 27.5 rushing with 42 last week — a 67%-pass offense; six of ten over and a thin 2025 window; WATCH. Median 56 against 27.5 (+28.5); over in 20% of the last ten and 39% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 42, 8. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (177 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 27.5 → 27.5.
TEHOUNO PLAY
Dalton Schultz
Schultz U51.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line41 vs 51.5 (−10.5) · avg 51.4
Role · shareDalton TE 22 25.3%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 37.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (353 allowed) · line 45.5 → 51.5
Median 41 against 51.5 (−10.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. Dalton TE 22 25.3%. 2026: 35, 140. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (353 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 45.5 → 51.5. Collins OUT — targets move.
QBINDWATCH
Daniel Jones
Jones O199.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line211 vs 199.5 (+11.5) · avg 218.7
Role · share55/45 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 85.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 231.5 → 199.5
211 median on 199.5 with the AI model OVER 221 (two stars) — and a −166 price on a 12-yard cushion; the number is right, the price is not. Median 211 against 199.5 (+11.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 85% of 2025. 55/45 pass/run. 2026: 166, 210. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 231.5 → 199.5.
WR1INDWATCH
Josh Downs
Downs U50.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line35.5 vs 50.5 (−15.0) · avg 36.2
Role · shareJosh WR 13 22.0%
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 31.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 26 (270.5 allowed) · line 51.5 → 50.5
35.5 median on 50.5 — under in seven of ten, but 72 last week and a −0.10 WR/CB read; nothing to bet. Median 35.5 against 50.5 (−15.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 69% of 2025. Josh WR 13 22.0%. 2026: 37, 72. Opponent rank 26 on the stat (270.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 51.5 → 50.5. WR/CB −0.10 vs Jalen Pitre.
WR2INDNO PLAY
Keenan Allen
Allen U32.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line31 vs 32.5 (−1.5) · avg 30.0
Role · shareKeenan WR 11 18.6%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 67.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 26 (270.5 allowed) · line 34.5 → 32.5
Median 31 against 32.5 (−1.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 33% of 2025. Keenan WR 11 18.6%. 2026: 32, 5. Opponent rank 26 on the stat (270.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 34.5 → 32.5. WR/CB −0.14 vs Derek Stingley.
WR3INDWATCH
Darius Slayton
Slayton O11.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.5—
Projection vs line35 vs 11.5 (+23.5) · avg 40.3
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 — · 2025 86.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 26 (270.5 allowed) · line 17.5 → 11.5
Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries eleven props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 35 against 11.5 (+23.5); over in 90% of the last ten and 86% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: —. Opponent rank 26 on the stat (270.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 17.5 → 11.5.
RBINDNO PLAY
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor U79.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—
Projection vs line79.5 vs 79.5 (−0.0) · avg 88.0
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (85.5 allowed) · line 80.5 → 79.5
Median 79.5 against 79.5 (−0.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 98, 92. Opponent rank 6 on the stat (85.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 80.5 → 79.5.
TEINDWATCH
Tyler Warren
Warren U49.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line24 vs 49.5 (−25.5) · avg 33.3
Role · shareTyler TE 12 20.3%
Hit windowsL10 10 · L5 0.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 41.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 26 (270.5 allowed) · line 49.5 → 49.5
Median 24 against 49.5 (−25.5); under in 90% of the last ten and 59% of 2025. Tyler TE 12 20.3%. 2026: 13, 21. Opponent rank 26 on the stat (270.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 49.5 → 49.5.
Panthers @ Browns — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · FOXVenue
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
68°F, 0% rain, wind 12 mph (gusts 18)
Line
CLE +2.5 (−108) on our data platform · Browns +2.5 everywhere (platform −108); the market-maker is at +2 · Panthers −2.5 +107 on the platform
Total
41.5 · opened 40.0, Nevada 42–42.5
⚡ THE JUICE. The cleanest ALIGNED read on the board. The public book's tickets are 83% Carolina (CONTRARIAN → Cleveland) and its money 74%; the market-maker's dollars are 81% Cleveland on 45% of tickets (+36, SHARP), its moneyline money 80% Cleveland; and the line has moved from Carolina −3 at the open to −2 at the market-maker and −2.5 elsewhere — a reverse move against 83% tickets. The three ratings have this at pick'em to Cleveland by 0.9, which is two to three points of Browns against a +2.5. The systems: Carolina is 17-35 ATS as a favorite and the highest-scoring-teams-in-September system fades them (11-23 ATS); dogs have covered the last four in the series; the rookie-coach +1-to-+3 system plays Cleveland while the rookie-coach-at-home and after-a-win systems fade them — the systems net to Cleveland by a whisker. Carolina's two starting tackles (Ekwonu, Moton) are OUT. The dissent is the quarterback: Deshaun Watson, two starts in, projected at 153 passing yards by a Las Vegas network's AI model (UNDER 194.5, two stars), against a Carolina offense scoring 35.5 a game (2nd) with Bryce Young throwing for 361 and 287. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Coker (WR) Questionable, ankle; Legette (WR) Questionable, knee; Ekwonu (T) OUT and Moton (T) OUT — both Carolina tackles; Jenkins (G) OUT for Cleveland; Royer (TE) OUT.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: CAR 74% of the spread money on 83% of tickets; Over 50% $ / 56% tix; moneyline CAR 84% $ / 82% tix. The market-maker: CAR 19% $ / 55% tix; Over 90% $ / 58% tix; moneyline CAR 20% $ / 50% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 86/14 bets, 83/17 money to Carolina; spread 82/18 bets, 94/6 money to Carolina; total 72/28 bets and 78/22 money to the Over. Tracker: opened +3.0, now +2.0 (home line) — Browns +2.5 everywhere (platform −108); the market-maker is at +2 · Panthers −2.5 +107 on the platform; total opened 40.0, now 42–42.5. Three rating systems (home line): +0.2 / +0.9 / +0.9 vs the market +2.5; projected totals 43.4 / 41.7 vs 41.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): Scoring >31 PPG vs non-prolific → 11-23 ATS FADE Carolina (Trap #7); CAR 17-35 ATS as a favorite → FADE Carolina; CLE 38-47 ATS at home → FADE Cleveland; Dogs covered the last four in the series → ON Cleveland; Rookie coach (Monken) at home → FADE Cleveland; +1 to +3 dog → PLAY Cleveland; after a win → FADE Cleveland; DK splits #1 → ON Carolina; #4 non-conference majority handle → ON Carolina. The network's expert room: Browns 3, Panthers 2; Over 1.
🎯 CLEVELAND +2.5 (−108 on the platform; +2.5 everywhere, +2 at the market-maker — the platform's 2.5 is the number) — conviction 57, the card's top side. Contrarian, sharp, a reverse move, three ratings and the series — every layer on one side, with two Carolina tackles out. Argument against, printed: Watson, and a Carolina offense that has scored 35 a game against two bad defenses. The total (41.5, up from 40) has the market-maker's dollars 90% Over on 58% of tickets (+32) and the models a point over — it prints as an Over lean at 52 and does not publish on one money layer.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card
QBCARWATCH
Bryce Young
Young O223.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line235 vs 223.5 (+11.5) · avg 240.9
Role · share64/36 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 24.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 211.5 → 223.5
Median 235 against 223.5 (+11.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 24% of 2025. 64/36 pass/run. 2026: 361, 287. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 211.5 → 223.5.
WR1CARWATCH
Jalen Coker
Coker U59.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line56 vs 59.5 (−3.5) · avg 66.6
Role · shareJalen WR 18 27.3%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 25.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (213.5 allowed) · line 50.5 → 59.5
56 median on 59.5 with 138 and 66 this season — Questionable (ankle), and a tag is a cap. Median 56 against 59.5 (−3.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 75% of 2025. Jalen WR 18 27.3%. 2026: 138, 66. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (213.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 50.5 → 59.5. WR/CB +0.06 vs Myles Harden. Questionable (ankle).
WR2CARWATCH
Tetairoa McMillan
McMillan O62.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line74 vs 62.5 (+11.5) · avg 65.3
Role · shareTetairoa WR 18 27.3%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (213.5 allowed) · line 57.5 → 62.5
74 median on 62.5, 75 and 101 this season, 27% share — six of ten and 44% of 2025; the ten-game window is why it is WATCH, and Bryce Young's 361 in Week 1 says the ceiling is real. Median 74 against 62.5 (+11.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 44% of 2025. Tetairoa WR 18 27.3%. 2026: 75, 101. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (213.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 57.5 → 62.5. WR/CB −0.03 vs Tyson Campbell.
WR3CARNO PLAY
Xavier Legette
Legette O12.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—
Projection vs line17 vs 12.5 (+4.5) · avg 25.4
Role · shareXavier WR 6 9.1%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (213.5 allowed) · line 18.5 → 12.5
Median 17 against 12.5 (+4.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. Xavier WR 6 9.1%. 2026: 0, 64. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (213.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 18.5 → 12.5. WR/CB −0.09 vs Denzel Ward. Questionable (knee).
RBCARWATCH
Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard U69.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line28 vs 69.5 (−41.5) · avg 34.6
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 10 · L5 0.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 13.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 26 (131.5 allowed) · line 62.5 → 69.5
28 median on 69.5 — the panel screams under (13% of 2025 over), but Cleveland is 26th against the run (wrong way for an under), Conflicts. Median 28 against 69.5 (−41.5); under in 90% of the last ten and 87% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 49, 53. Opponent rank 26 on the stat (131.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 62.5 → 69.5.
TECARNO PLAY
Darren Waller
Waller O20.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line30.5 vs 20.5 (+10.0) · avg 31.7
Role · shareDarren TE 5 7.6%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20.0 (under side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (213.5 allowed) · line 21.5 → 20.5
Median 30.5 against 20.5 (+10.0); over in 40% of the last ten and 44% of 2025. Darren TE 5 7.6%. 2026: 28, 33. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (213.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 21.5 → 20.5.
QBCLEWATCH
Deshaun Watson
Watson O/U 199.5 pass yds—
Projection vs line221.5 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 199.5
Role · share57/43 pass/run
Hit windows2026 100% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · opened 185.5
A current-season panel only: 205, 238 in 2 games against a 199.5 line, 57/43 pass/run. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player. second start for Cleveland (Gabriel IR).
WR1CLEWATCH
KC Concepcion Jr.
Concepcion O/U 39.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line35.5 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 39.5
Role · shareKC WR 11 21.2%
Hit windows2026 50% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (207 allowed) · opened 36.5
A current-season panel only: 43, 28 in 2 games against a 39.5 line, KC WR 11 21.2%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player. QB Watson — two-game sample.
WR2CLEWATCH
Denzel Boston
Boston O/U 49.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line77 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 49.5
Role · shareDenzel WR 11 21.2%
Hit windows2026 100% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (207 allowed) · opened 43.5
A current-season panel only: 59, 95 in 2 games against a 49.5 line, Denzel WR 11 21.2%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player. QB Watson — two-game sample.
WR3CLENO PLAY
Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy O19.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line24 vs 19.5 (+4.5) · avg 29.3
Role · shareJerry WR 5 9.6%
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 65.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (207 allowed) · line 18.5 → 19.5
Median 24 against 19.5 (+4.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 65% of 2025. Jerry WR 5 9.6%. 2026: 26, 0. Opponent rank 12 on the stat (207 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 18.5 → 19.5. WR/CB −0.14 vs Mike Jackson. QB Watson.
RBCLEWATCH
Quinshon Judkins
Judkins U59.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line29.5 vs 59.5 (−30.0) · avg 41.4
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 0.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 32 (224 allowed) · line 55.5 → 59.5
29.5 median on 59.5 — 53% of the carries; Carolina is 32nd against the run (wrong way for an under), Conflicts. Median 29.5 against 59.5 (−30.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 33, 21. Opponent rank 32 on the stat (224 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 55.5 → 59.5.
TECLENO PLAY
Harold Fannin Jr.
Fannin O39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line41.5 vs 39.5 (+2.0) · avg 45.4
Role · shareHarold TE 9 17.3%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 56.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (207 allowed) · line 41.5 → 39.5
Median 41.5 against 39.5 (+2.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. Harold TE 9 17.3%. 2026: 21, 54. Opponent rank 12 on the stat (207 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 41.5 → 39.5.
Patriots @ Jaguars — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · CBSVenue
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
85°F, 0% rain, wind 2 mph — the hottest kickoff on the slate
Line
JAC -2.5 (−116) on our data platform · Patriots +3 at all seven Nevada books; +2.5 on the platform (+115) · Jaguars −2.5 −116 on the platform
Total
45.5 · opened 45.5, Nevada 46
⚡ THE JUICE. The two books' sharp dollars are on opposite teams — the market-maker has New England at 54% of the money on 18% of tickets (+36), the public book has Jacksonville at 70% of the money on 53% (+17) — and that is a stay-away by rule before anything else is read. The rest is a tug-of-war: the line moved from New England +2 to +3 against the market-maker's money; the ratings split (Jacksonville by 0.7 and 3.0, New England by 0.8) and the Bettors' Rating calls New England the second-most underpriced dog on the board (+3.8); the room is 10 Jaguars to 2 Patriots; the systems fade both (New England 20-29-3 ATS as a dog, Jacksonville 33-44 ATS off a loss) and play Jacksonville on the series (home teams 5-1) and the non-divisional small-line majority-bets system. Eighty-five degrees at kickoff. The total (45.5 → 46) has both books' cash Over — 80% of the money at each on 49% and 67% of tickets — against ratings a half-point under and the room 3-0 Under. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Raridon (TE) Questionable. Both starting quarterbacks healthy.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: NE 30% of the spread money on 47% of tickets; Over 80% $ / 49% tix; moneyline NE 59% $ / 40% tix. The market-maker: NE 54% $ / 18% tix; Over 80% $ / 67% tix; moneyline NE 1% $ / 20% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 68/32 bets, 83/17 money to New England; spread 69/31 bets, 77/23 money to New England; total 34/66 bets to the Under but 58/42 money to the Over. Tracker: opened -2.0, now -3.0 (home line) — Patriots +3 at all seven Nevada books; +2.5 on the platform (+115) · Jaguars −2.5 −116 on the platform; total opened 45.5, now 46. Three rating systems (home line): -0.7 / -3.0 / +0.8 vs the market -2.5; projected totals 44.8 / 45.5 vs 45.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): NE 20-29-3 ATS as a dog → FADE New England; JAX 33-44 ATS off a SU loss → FADE Jacksonville; Home teams 5-1 in the series → ON Jacksonville; Any team ≤15 PPG → Over 29-15 (Trap #10); DK splits #5 (non-div conference ≤6.5 majority bets) → ON Jacksonville; Bettors Rating: New England +3.8 underpriced (2nd on the board). The network's expert room: Jaguars 10, Patriots 2; Under 3.
🎯 STAY AWAY on the side — the market-maker and the public book disagree by dollars, and the rule is the rule. New England +3 prints as the sharp-and-model lean (it has the market-maker's money and the Bettors' Rating); Jacksonville has the public book, the room and the series. The Over 45.5 prints at 52 on two sharp money layers with the models a half-point against — not published. Stevenson's plus-money rushing over is the leg.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBNENO PLAY
Drake Maye
Maye U199.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line199.5 vs 199.5 (−0.0) · avg 219.6
Role · share51/49 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 81.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 218.5 → 199.5
Median 199.5 against 199.5 (−0.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 19% of 2025. 51/49 pass/run. 2026: 178, 208. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 218.5 → 199.5.
WR1NEWATCH
DeMario Douglas
Douglas U29.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line9.5 vs 29.5 (−20.0) · avg 15.8
Role · shareDeMario WR 9 17.3%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 43.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (246.5 allowed) · line 29.5 → 29.5
Median 9.5 against 29.5 (−20.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 57% of 2025. DeMario WR 9 17.3%. 2026: 20, 9. Opponent rank 22 on the stat (246.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 29.5 → 29.5. WR/CB −0.09 vs Jourdan Lewis.
WR2NEWATCH
Mack Hollins
Hollins O39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line51 vs 39.5 (+11.5) · avg 53.1
Role · shareMack WR 7 13.5%
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (246.5 allowed) · line 34.5 → 39.5
Median 51 against 39.5 (+11.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. Mack WR 7 13.5%. 2026: 51, 18. Opponent rank 22 on the stat (246.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 34.5 → 39.5. WR/CB −0.19 vs Jarrian Jones.
WR3NENO PLAY
Romeo Doubs
Doubs U49.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line44.5 vs 49.5 (−5.0) · avg 49.8
Role · shareRomeo WR 7 13.5%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (246.5 allowed) · line 40.5 → 49.5
Median 44.5 against 49.5 (−5.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. Romeo WR 7 13.5%. 2026: 0, 96. Opponent rank 22 on the stat (246.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 40.5 → 49.5. WR/CB −0.16 vs Montaric Brown.
RBNEPLAY
Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson O39.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.5+114
Projection vs line51 vs 39.5 (+11.5) · avg 59.0
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 56.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (95.5 allowed) · line 33.5 → 39.5
A 51 median against 39.5 — 51 and 43 in the two games this season, over in nine of his last ten — at plus money, with the line raised six from 33.5 while the panel still clears it by eleven. Jacksonville allows 95 rushing yards a game (13th, two games). The dissent is the backfield: Henderson takes a share (76 yards in his one full game), and a New England team that trails throws. The plus price says the book leans under; the tape says otherwise.
TENEWATCH
Hunter Henry
Henry U49.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line33 vs 49.5 (−16.5) · avg 33.6
Role · shareHunter TE 8 15.4%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 0.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 33.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (246.5 allowed) · line 36.5 → 49.5
33 median on 41.5 for the under, seven of ten under, 15% share — a coin flip on a raised line. Median 33 against 49.5 (−16.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 67% of 2025. Hunter TE 8 15.4%. 2026: 26, 40. Opponent rank 22 on the stat (246.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 36.5 → 49.5.
QBJACWATCH
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence O224.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line250 vs 224.5 (+25.5) · avg 249.7
Role · share50/51 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 56.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 225.5 → 224.5
250 median on 224.5 — into New England's 5th-ranked pass defense (two games, Conflicts); 189 last week. Median 250 against 224.5 (+25.5); over in 80% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 50/51 pass/run. 2026: 245, 189. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 225.5 → 224.5.
WR1JACWATCH
Parker Washington
Washington O59.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 8.0—
Projection vs line85 vs 59.5 (+25.5) · avg 80.5
Role · shareParker WR 18 36.0%
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 100.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 41.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 9 (193.5 allowed) · line 55.5 → 59.5
85 median, 36% of the targets, 83 and 98 this season — and −166 on a 59.5 line; rated, not bet at that price. Median 85 against 59.5 (+25.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 41% of 2025. Parker WR 18 36.0%. 2026: 83, 98. Opponent rank 9 on the stat (193.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 55.5 → 59.5. WR/CB +0.13 vs Marcus Jones.
WR2JACNO PLAY
Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas O39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line40 vs 39.5 (+0.5) · avg 44.3
Role · shareBrian WR 12 24.0%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 60.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 9 (193.5 allowed) · line 40.5 → 39.5
Median 40 against 39.5 (+0.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. Brian WR 12 24.0%. 2026: 40, 40. Opponent rank 9 on the stat (193.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 40.5 → 39.5. WR/CB +0.02 vs Charles Woods.
WR3JACWATCH
Jakobi Meyers
Meyers O35.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line42 vs 35.5 (+6.5) · avg 45.8
Role · shareJakobi WR 3 6.0%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 76.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 9 (193.5 allowed) · line 34.5 → 35.5
Median 42 against 35.5 (+6.5); over in 80% of the last ten and 76% of 2025. Jakobi WR 3 6.0%. 2026: 40, 28. Opponent rank 9 on the stat (193.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 34.5 → 35.5. WR/CB +0.02 vs Christian Gonzalez.
RBJACWATCH
Bhayshul Tuten
Tuten U49.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line20 vs 49.5 (−29.5) · avg 33.0
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 13.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (94 allowed) · line 54.5 → 49.5
Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries eleven props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 20 against 49.5 (−29.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 87% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 66, 65. Opponent rank 11 on the stat (94 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 54.5 → 49.5.
TEJACNO PLAY
Brenton Strange
Strange O29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line33 vs 29.5 (+3.5) · avg 38.5
Role · shareBrenton TE 5 10.0%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 62.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 9 (193.5 allowed) · line 26.5 → 29.5
Median 33 against 29.5 (+3.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 62% of 2025. Brenton TE 5 10.0%. 2026: 23, 17. Opponent rank 9 on the stat (193.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 26.5 → 29.5.
Bengals @ Steelers — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · CBSVenue
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
69°F, 1% rain, wind 13 mph (gusts 19)
Line
PIT +3.5 (−112) on our data platform · Steelers +3.5 everywhere (platform −112; −3 at one Nevada book for the Bengals) · Bengals −3.5 +111 on the platform
Total
42.5 · opened 46.5, Nevada 42 at the market-maker, 42.5 elsewhere
⚡ THE JUICE. The public book's tickets are 74% Cincinnati (CONTRARIAN → Pittsburgh), the market-maker's money is 67% Cincinnati on 70% of tickets (neutral), the platform's money is 90% Cincinnati — and the line has moved WITH the public, from −2.5 to −3.5, crossing the 3. The three ratings have this at pick'em (Pittsburgh +0.2, −0.8, +0.8): three and a half points of Steelers against the number, and two of the three rating systems list Pittsburgh as the most underpriced dog on the board (+3.3, +4.3). The systems collide: Cincinnati is 19-1 SU and 18-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 to 7 since 2015 (the report's featured angle) and 84-54 ATS on normal rest; Pittsburgh is 20-13-1 ATS vs better records, 5-1 ATS vs Cincinnati in the last three seasons and a divisional dog off a ≤10-point loss (63-34-3 ATS) — and the 1-1-team-as-a-3.5+-dog system fades them (14-24 ATS), as do the retread-coach fades. The total has gone from 46.5 to 42.5 with 92% of the market-maker's dollars, 80% of the public book's and 92% of the platform's on the Under: the move is done. Warren (shoulder) and Pittman (foot) are Questionable for Pittsburgh with Dowdle OUT; Iosivas is OUT for Cincinnati. Tee Higgins' receiving line was cut nine yards from the open with no tag on the injury tab. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Iosivas (WR3) OUT; Pittman (WR) Questionable, foot; Warren (RB) Questionable, shoulder, with Dowdle OUT behind him; Dunker (G) OUT. No tag on Tee Higgins despite a nine-yard line cut.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: CIN 59% of the spread money on 74% of tickets; Over 20% $ / 40% tix; moneyline CIN 91% $ / 85% tix. The market-maker: CIN 67% $ / 70% tix; Over 7% $ / 13% tix; moneyline CIN 62% $ / 60% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 90/10 bets, 92/8 money to Cincinnati; spread 80/20 bets, 90/10 money to Cincinnati; total 39/61 bets and 8/92 money to the UNDER. Tracker: opened +2.5, now +3.5 (home line) — Steelers +3.5 everywhere (platform −112; −3 at one Nevada book for the Bengals) · Bengals −3.5 +111 on the platform; total opened 46.5, now 42 at the market-maker, 42.5 elsewhere. Three rating systems (home line): +0.2 / -0.8 / +0.8 vs the market +3.5; projected totals 42.4 / 43.8 vs 42.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): CIN 19-1 SU / 18-2 ATS as a road favorite of −3 to −7 since 2015 (AJ's Angle) → ON Cincinnati; CIN 84-54 ATS normal rest; 1-1 teams as W3 dogs of +3.5 or more → 14-24 ATS FADE Pittsburgh (Trap #3); scored ≤10 in a loss → divisional dogs 63-34-3 ATS ON Pittsburgh; PIT 20-13-1 ATS vs better records; PIT 5-1 ATS vs CIN last three seasons → ON Pittsburgh; Rodgers 17-7 UNDER vs a better record; PIT 112-79 UNDER since 2015 → PLAY UNDER; DK #10 (≥56% bets Under) → UNDER; Retread coach (McCarthy) games 1-8 / off a loss → FADE Pittsburgh; DK splits #1 → ON Cincinnati; #2/#3 divisional majority → FADE Cincinnati; #8 → ON Cincinnati. The network's expert room: Bengals 5, Steelers 4; Under 5, Over 1.
🎯 STAY AWAY on the side — Pittsburgh +3.5 prints at 53 as the contrarian-and-model lean with no sharp-money layer behind it, and the ledger's rule is that a team lean needs a money layer AND a model layer. The hook at 3.5 is real and printed; the money is not there. The Under 42.5 has every dollar and four systems and has already moved four and a half points — spent, stay away. Chase Brown's rushing over is the leg; Higgins is the WATCH of the week (the panel says over, the nine-yard cut says the market knows something).
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBCINNO PLAY
Joe Burrow
Burrow U249.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line245 vs 249.5 (−4.5) · avg 227.0
Role · share59/41 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 249.5 → 249.5
Median 245 against 249.5 (−4.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. 59/41 pass/run. 2026: 254, 207. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 249.5 → 249.5.
WR1CINWATCH
Tee Higgins
Higgins O49.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line61 vs 49.5 (+11.5) · avg 68.4
Role · shareTee WR 16 24.6%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 60.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (175.5 allowed) · line 58.5 → 49.5
the panel loves it — 61 median, 92 and 95 this season, 24.6% share — and the books cut the line nine yards from 58.5 with NO tag on the injury tab; a nine-yard cut with no reason is the market knowing something we do not, and Pittsburgh is 6th against receiving yards (Conflicts). Rated, not bet. Median 61 against 49.5 (+11.5); over in 80% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. Tee WR 16 24.6%. 2026: 92, 95. Opponent rank 6 on the stat (175.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 58.5 → 49.5. WR/CB +0.07 vs Asante Samuel. line cut 58.5 → 49.5 with no tag on the injury tab — unexplained.
WR2CINNO PLAY
Ja'Marr Chase
Chase O79.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line85.5 vs 79.5 (+6.0) · avg 77.9
Role · shareJa'Marr WR 13 20.0%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 63.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (175.5 allowed) · line 74.5 → 79.5
Median 85.5 against 79.5 (+6.0); over in 50% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. Ja'Marr WR 13 20.0%. 2026: 12, 75. Opponent rank 6 on the stat (175.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 74.5 → 79.5. WR/CB +0.06 vs Jamel Dean.
WR3CINNO LINE POSTED
Cincinnati WR3
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
Andrei Iosivas is OUT (thumb) and no third Bengals receiver carried a line; the panel's target table has Dohnte Meyers at 3% of targets. Nothing to rate.
RBCINPLAY
Chase Brown
Brown O63.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.0−113
Projection vs line75 vs 63.5 (+11.5) · avg 73.5
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 25 (128 allowed) · line 63.5 → 63.5
A 75 median against 63.5 with 80 last week and 56 in the opener, seven of ten over and the last five 80%; the lead back of a 3.5-point road favorite against a Pittsburgh run defense allowing 128 a game (25th, two games). The line has not moved. The dissent is Cincinnati's shape — 59% pass — and a 42.5 total that says the books expect a slog; a slog is carries.
TECINNO PLAY
Mike Gesicki
Gesicki O24.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—
Projection vs line27 vs 24.5 (+2.5) · avg 32.4
Role · shareMike TE 7 10.8%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 31.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 6 (175.5 allowed) · line 26.5 → 24.5
Median 27 against 24.5 (+2.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 31% of 2025. Mike TE 7 10.8%. 2026: 78, 0. Opponent rank 6 on the stat (175.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 26.5 → 24.5.
QBPITWATCH
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers U224.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line204 vs 224.5 (−20.5) · avg 202.3
Role · share66/34 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 35.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 213.5 → 224.5
Median 204 against 224.5 (−20.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 65% of 2025. 66/34 pass/run. 2026: 221, 187. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 213.5 → 224.5.
WR1PITWATCH
DK Metcalf
Metcalf U52.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line41 vs 52.5 (−11.5) · avg 49.2
Role · shareDK WR 19 25.7%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 38.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (284.5 allowed) · line 52.5 → 52.5
Median 41 against 52.5 (−11.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 62% of 2025. DK WR 19 25.7%. 2026: 40, 27. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (284.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 52.5 → 52.5. WR/CB −0.29 vs DJ Turner.
WR2PITNO PLAY
Roman Wilson
Wilson U23.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line17 vs 23.5 (−6.5) · avg 20.1
Role · shareRoman WR 12 16.2%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 15.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (284.5 allowed) · line 24.5 → 23.5
Median 17 against 23.5 (−6.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 85% of 2025. Roman WR 12 16.2%. 2026: 26, 28. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (284.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 24.5 → 23.5. WR/CB −0.31 vs Jalen Davis.
WR3PITNO PLAY
Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman O24.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line26.5 vs 24.5 (+2.0) · avg 39.6
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 71.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (284.5 allowed) · line 25.5 → 24.5
Median 26.5 against 24.5 (+2.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 58. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (284.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 25.5 → 24.5. WR/CB −0.26 vs Daxton Hill. Questionable (foot).
RBPITNO PLAY
Jaylen Warren
Warren U59.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line44.5 vs 59.5 (−15.0) · avg 55.4
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (74.5 allowed) · line 49.5 → 59.5
Median 44.5 against 59.5 (−15.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 46, 43. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (74.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 49.5 → 59.5. Questionable (shoulder); Dowdle OUT.
TEPITNO PLAY
Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth U39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line26 vs 39.5 (−13.5) · avg 30.3
Role · sharePat TE 10 13.5%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 22.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (284.5 allowed) · line 37.5 → 39.5
Median 26 against 39.5 (−13.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 78% of 2025. Pat TE 10 13.5%. 2026: 46, 32. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (284.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 37.5 → 39.5.
Chiefs @ Dolphins — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · CBSVenue
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
82°F, 0% rain, wind 4 mph
Line
MIA +10.5 (−108) on our data platform · Dolphins +10.5 everywhere (platform −108; +10 at one Nevada book and the public book) · Chiefs −10.5 +108 on the platform
Total
45.5 · opened 44.5, Nevada 45–45.5
⚡ THE JUICE. The public book's tickets are 83% Kansas City (CONTRARIAN → Miami) and its money 75%; the market-maker's dollars are 66% Miami on 33% of tickets (+33, SHARP); the platform's spread money is 81% Kansas City. The three ratings have Miami +8.2 / +9.0 / +9.1 — two points of Dolphins against +10.5, and all three rating systems list Miami among the five most underpriced dogs. The line has gone the other way, from −9.5 to −10.5 — a move against the market-maker's money, which the doctrine reads as the book leaning Kansas City, and that is printed. The systems: 0-2 SU-and-ATS teams as Week 3 dogs are 30-12 ATS (the report's lead angle), Kansas City is 8-24 ATS off a 30-point game and Mahomes 14-23-1 ATS as a favorite of 7+, Miami 64-35 ATS at home; against it, Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the last five of the series and the rookie-coach-at-home system fades Miami. Malik Willis starts for Miami, Caleb Douglas is OUT. The total (45.5) is the tidiest Under on the board: road favorites with totals of 44+ in Week 3 are 27-9 to the Under, both Effective Strength (−2.0) and the Bettors' Rating (−1.9) project under, the public book's money is 61% Under on 48% of tickets and the platform's 75% Under — against the ≤15-PPG Over system and Kansas City's 27.8 average as a big favorite. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Douglas (WR2) OUT, ankle; Miller (WR) Questionable; Wright (RB) Doubtful; Simmons (T) OUT for Kansas City. Willis starts for Miami.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: KC 75% of the spread money on 83% of tickets; Over 39% $ / 52% tix; moneyline KC 98% $ / 97% tix. The market-maker: KC 34% $ / 67% tix; Over 39% $ / 43% tix; moneyline KC 97% $ / 57% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 96/4 bets, 88/12 money to Kansas City; spread 85/15 bets, 81/19 money to Kansas City; total 53/47 bets Over but 25/75 money to the UNDER. Tracker: opened +9.5, now +10.5 (home line) — Dolphins +10.5 everywhere (platform −108; +10 at one Nevada book and the public book) · Chiefs −10.5 +108 on the platform; total opened 44.5, now 45–45.5. Three rating systems (home line): +8.2 / +9.0 / +9.1 vs the market +10.5; projected totals 44.5 / 44.6 vs 45.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): 0-2 SU & ATS dogs in W3 → 30-12 ATS ON Miami (AJ's Angle / Trap #2); KC 8-24 ATS off a 30-point game; Mahomes 14-23-1 ATS as a favorite of 7+; MIA 64-35 ATS at home → ON Miami; Road favorites with totals 44+ → UNDER 27-9 (Trap #9); Effective Strength UNDER edge −2.0; KC 4-1 ATS in the last five vs Miami → ON Kansas City; scoring >31 PPG → FADE Kansas City (Trap #7); Rookie coach (Hafley) at home → FADE Miami; DK splits #1 → ON Kansas City; #8 (2+ win difference) → FADE Kansas City; #9 → UNDER. The network's expert room: Chiefs 0, Dolphins 0.
🎯 MIAMI +10.5 (−108 on the platform; +10.5 everywhere, +10 at two books) — conviction 55. UNDER 45.5 (−110 on the platform; 45 at three Nevada books — take 45 if you can) — conviction 54. The side has contrarian, sharp, three ratings and the lead system; its argument against is the line moving toward Kansas City and a backup quarterback. The Under has two models, a 27-9 system, and two books' money leaning Under; its argument against is the Chiefs' ability to score 30 alone. Two legs, one script: a low-scoring game that stays inside two scores — printed as a group of two. Achane's rushing over rides the same script.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBKCWATCH
Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes O249.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line268.5 vs 249.5 (+19.0) · avg 263.9
Role · share54/46 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 71.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 228.5 → 249.5
268.5 median on 249.5 at plus money, 382 last week — and the books raised the line 21 from 228.5; a line that ran 21 against us has spent the news, and the Under 45.5 is our leg in this game. Median 268.5 against 249.5 (+19.0); over in 70% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. 54/46 pass/run. 2026: 184, 382. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 228.5 → 249.5.
WR1KCWATCH
Xavier Worthy
Worthy U39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line30 vs 39.5 (−9.5) · avg 34.2
Role · shareXavier WR 13 19.1%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (223.5 allowed) · line 34.5 → 39.5
Median 30 against 39.5 (−9.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. Xavier WR 13 19.1%. 2026: 18, 25. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (223.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 34.5 → 39.5. WR/CB +0.08 vs Julius Brents.
WR2KCNO PLAY
Rashee Rice
Rice O49.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line65.5 vs 49.5 (+16.0) · avg 67.3
Role · shareRashee WR 8 11.8%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 63.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (223.5 allowed) · line 51.5 → 49.5
Median 65.5 against 49.5 (+16.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. Rashee WR 8 11.8%. 2026: 19, 83. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (223.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 51.5 → 49.5. WR/CB +0.08 vs Chris Johnson.
WR3KCNO PLAY
Tyquan Thornton
Thornton U19.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line9.5 vs 19.5 (−10.0) · avg 25.2
Role · shareTyquan WR 5 7.4%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (223.5 allowed) · line 25.5 → 19.5
Median 9.5 against 19.5 (−10.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. Tyquan WR 5 7.4%. 2026: 0, 86. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (223.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 25.5 → 19.5. WR/CB +0.11 vs Jason Marshall.
RBKCWATCH
Kenneth Walker III
Walker O83.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line98.5 vs 83.5 (+15.0) · avg 89.7
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 30.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (112.5 allowed) · line 91.5 → 83.5
98.5 median on 83.5 with 173 and 117 this season on 70% of Kansas City's carries — the windows (60% L10, 30% 2025) are another team's, and the continuity gate holds him at WATCH. Median 98.5 against 83.5 (+15.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 30% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 173, 117. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (112.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 91.5 → 83.5.
TEKCNO PLAY
Travis Kelce
Kelce U49.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line44 vs 49.5 (−5.5) · avg 48.3
Role · shareTravis TE 16 23.5%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 18 (223.5 allowed) · line 44.5 → 49.5
Median 44 against 49.5 (−5.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. Travis TE 16 23.5%. 2026: 71, 101. Opponent rank 18 on the stat (223.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 44.5 → 49.5.
QBMIANO LINE POSTED
Malik Willis
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
No passing-yards line was posted for Miami's starter at capture (the books had 174.5 for him midweek and pulled it); he carried rushing (29.5/33.5) and touchdown markets only. Not rated on passing.
WR1MIAWATCH
Malik Washington
Washington U39.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 8.0—
Projection vs line16.5 vs 39.5 (−23.0) · avg 23.0
Role · shareMalik WR 13 26.0%
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 12.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (170.5 allowed) · line 34.5 → 39.5
Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries eleven props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 16.5 against 39.5 (−23.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 88% of 2025. Malik WR 13 26.0%. 2026: 53, 43. Opponent rank 4 on the stat (170.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 34.5 → 39.5. WR/CB +0.21 vs Kristian Fulton. WR2 Douglas OUT — targets move.
WR2MIAWATCH
Kevin Coleman Jr.
Coleman O/U 15.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line0 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 15.5
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windows2026 0% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (170.5 allowed) · opened 17.5
A current-season panel only: 0, 0 in 2 games against a 15.5 line, share not in the panel table. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player. Douglas OUT — next man up.
WR3MIAWATCH
Chris Bell
Bell O/U 19.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line12.5 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 19.5
Role · shareChris WR 3 6.0%
Hit windows2026 50% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (170.5 allowed) · opened 25.5
A current-season panel only: 25, 0 in 2 games against a 19.5 line, Chris WR 3 6.0%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player. Douglas OUT — next man up.
RBMIAPLAY
De'Von Achane
Achane O59.5 rush yds★★★★★ 8.5−122
Projection vs line82 vs 59.5 (+22.5) · avg 92.1
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 81.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 10 (90 allowed) · line 61.5 → 59.5
An 82 median on 59.5 — nine of ten over, 81% of 2025 — with 74 last week behind Malik Willis, in an offense that will hand it to him because it cannot ask Willis to throw thirty times. Kansas City allows 90 rushing yards a game (10th, two games — scores a point, not more). The dissent is the script: a 10.5-point dog that falls behind by two scores stops running, and Miami has scored 15 a game.
TEMIANO PLAY
Greg Dulcich
Dulcich O24.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—
Projection vs line27.5 vs 24.5 (+3.0) · avg 32.1
Role · shareGreg TE 5 10.0%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 60.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (170.5 allowed) · line 23.5 → 24.5
Median 27.5 against 24.5 (+3.0); over in 50% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. Greg TE 5 10.0%. 2026: 18, 17. Opponent rank 4 on the stat (170.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 23.5 → 24.5.
Jets @ Lions — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · FOXVenue
Ford Field · Detroit, MI · Dome
Weather at kickoff
Indoors (dome)
Line
DET -6.5 (−106) on our data platform · Jets +7 at one Nevada book (Wynn); +6.5 elsewhere (platform +104) · Lions −6.5 −106 on the platform
Total
48.5 · opened 48.0, Nevada 48 (48.5 at one book)
⚡ THE JUICE. The market-maker's dollars are 63% Jets on 42% of tickets (+21, SHARP), the public book's tickets are 65% Detroit (CONTRARIAN, on the line), and the number has moved from +7 to +6.5 toward the Jets — three money layers on New York. The three ratings have Detroit by 8.4 to 10.2 — two to three and a half points of LIONS against the number — and all three rating systems list Detroit among the most underpriced favorites. That is the loudest money-versus-model conflict on the card. The systems pile on Detroit (Campbell 15-3 ATS off an outright loss, 27-15-1 at home, 21-7 with extra rest; the 1-1-dog-of-3.5+ fade; Geno Smith's vet-QB road and non-conference fades at 33-50 and 15-36 ATS) with one on the Jets (dogs 7-2 ATS in the series). Mason Taylor (TE1) is OUT and Mitchell (WR1) Questionable for the Jets; three Jets linemen are out. The total (48.5) has both books' sharp dollars Over — 82% on 60% at the public book, 67% on 43% at the market-maker — against models on the number (48.3 / 46.9) and the vet-QB September Under (49-33-1). Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Mitchell (WR1) Questionable, finger; Mason Taylor (TE1) OUT; Nwangwu (RB) OUT; three Jets linemen OUT (Bartch, Manu, Miller).
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: NYJ 28% of the spread money on 35% of tickets; Over 82% $ / 60% tix; moneyline NYJ 20% $ / 12% tix. The market-maker: NYJ 63% $ / 42% tix; Over 67% $ / 43% tix; moneyline NYJ 1% $ / 33% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 8/92 bets, 15/85 money to Detroit; spread 30/70 bets, 16/84 money to Detroit; total 66/34 bets and 89/11 money to the Over. Tracker: opened -7.0, now -6.5 (home line) — Jets +7 at one Nevada book (Wynn); +6.5 elsewhere (platform +104) · Lions −6.5 −106 on the platform; total opened 48.0, now 48 (48.5 at one book). Three rating systems (home line): -9.2 / -10.2 / -8.4 vs the market -6.5; projected totals 48.3 / 46.9 vs 48.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): Campbell 15-3 ATS off an outright loss; DET 27-15-1 ATS at home; 21-7 ATS with extra rest → ON Detroit; 1-1 teams as W3 dogs +3.5 or more → FADE NY Jets (Trap #3); NYJ 22-42 ATS as road dogs, 15-33 ATS non-conference; Vet QB new team (Geno): road 33-50 ATS, non-conference 15-36 ATS → FADE NY Jets; September UNDER 49-33-1 → PLAY UNDER; Campbell 16-11 UNDER after allowing 30+ → UNDER; dogs 7-2 ATS in the series → ON NY Jets; DK splits #4 → ON Detroit; #9 (46.5+ majority bets) → OVER; #11 (≥74% handle Over) → UNDER instead. The network's expert room: Jets 5, Lions 1; Over 1.
🎯 STAY AWAY on the side — money on the Jets, models and systems on the Lions, printed as the card's loudest conflict. The Over 48.5 prints at 52 on two sharp layers with no model layer and does not publish. Gibbs' rushing under is the leg — the Jets' front (65.5 allowed, 2nd) against a 47.5 median, with the 156 from Week 1 printed as the risk.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBNYJWATCH
Geno Smith
Smith U224.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line208 vs 224.5 (−16.5) · avg 207.0
Role · share51/49 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 40.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 215.5 → 224.5
Median 208 against 224.5 (−16.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. 51/49 pass/run. 2026: 215, 247. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 215.5 → 224.5.
WR1NYJNO PLAY
Adonai Mitchell
Mitchell U43.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line42.5 vs 43.5 (−1.0) · avg 42.4
Role · shareAdonai WR 15 25.4%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 19.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (329 allowed) · line 39.5 → 43.5
Median 42.5 against 43.5 (−1.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 81% of 2025. Adonai WR 15 25.4%. 2026: 60, 63. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (329 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 39.5 → 43.5. WR/CB −0.03 vs D.J. Reed. Questionable (finger).
WR2NYJNO LINE POSTED
Garrett Wilson
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
No receiving-yards line posted for the Jets' WR2 at capture (14 targets, 24% share on the panel's table). No line, no grade.
WR3NYJNO PLAY
Isaiah Williams
Williams U25.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line24 vs 25.5 (−1.5) · avg 19.9
Role · shareIsaiah WR 7 11.9%
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 20.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (329 allowed) · line 20.5 → 25.5
Median 24 against 25.5 (−1.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 80% of 2025. Isaiah WR 7 11.9%. 2026: 7, 34. Opponent rank 31 on the stat (329 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 20.5 → 25.5. WR/CB +0.06 vs Roger McCreary.
RBNYJNO PLAY
Breece Hall
Hall U59.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—
Projection vs line56 vs 59.5 (−3.5) · avg 61.5
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 28 (147 allowed) · line 59.5 → 59.5
Median 56 against 59.5 (−3.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 102, 29. Opponent rank 28 on the stat (147 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 59.5 → 59.5.
TENYJWATCH
Kenyon Sadiq
Sadiq O/U 29.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line19 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 29.5
Role · shareKenyon TE 6 10.2%
Hit windows2026 0% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 31 (329 allowed) · opened 25.5
A current-season panel only: 21, 17 in 2 games against a 29.5 line, Kenyon TE 6 10.2%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player. TE1 Mason Taylor OUT — next man up.
QBDETWATCH
Jared Goff
Goff O258.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line294 vs 258.5 (+35.5) · avg 286.2
Role · share61/39 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 248.5 → 258.5
Median 294 against 258.5 (+35.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 61/39 pass/run. 2026: 206, 327. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 248.5 → 258.5.
WR1DETWATCH
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Brown O79.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—
Projection vs line80 vs 79.5 (+0.5) · avg 91.7
Role · shareAmon-Ra St. WR 27 35.1%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (142.5 allowed) · line 77.5 → 79.5
80 median on 79.5 — the line is the median, and the Jets are 2nd against receiving yards. Median 80 against 79.5 (+0.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. Amon-Ra St. WR 27 35.1%. 2026: 67, 142. Opponent rank 2 on the stat (142.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 77.5 → 79.5. WR/CB +0.12 vs Jarvis Brownlee.
WR2DETNO PLAY
Jameson Williams
Williams O54.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line72 vs 54.5 (+17.5) · avg 72.1
Role · shareJameson WR 13 16.9%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 59.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (142.5 allowed) · line 56.5 → 54.5
Median 72 against 54.5 (+17.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 59% of 2025. Jameson WR 13 16.9%. 2026: 45, 33. Opponent rank 2 on the stat (142.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 56.5 → 54.5. WR/CB +0.06 vs Azareye'h Thomas.
WR3DETNO PLAY
Isaac TeSlaa
TeSlaa O15.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—
Projection vs line19 vs 15.5 (+3.5) · avg 20.0
Role · shareIsaac WR 6 7.8%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 35.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (142.5 allowed) · line 21.5 → 15.5
Median 19 against 15.5 (+3.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 35% of 2025. Isaac WR 6 7.8%. 2026: 0, 26. Opponent rank 2 on the stat (142.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 21.5 → 15.5. WR/CB +0.07 vs Brandon Stephens.
RBDETPLAY
Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs U89.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 8.0−113
Projection vs line47.5 vs 89.5 (−42.0) · avg 73.8
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 29.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (65.5 allowed) · line 97.5 → 89.5
Under 89.5 on a 47.5 ten-game median — under in eight of ten and 71% of 2025 — against a Jets run defense allowing 65.5 a game (2nd, two games), with the line already cut eight from 97.5. The dissent is loud and printed: 156 in Week 1, and Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite that runs when it leads, which is why script scores zero. The read is that Gibbs' yards come through the air (13 targets) and the Jets' front is the reason the median sits where it sits.
TEDETNO PLAY
Sam LaPorta
LaPorta O49.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—
Projection vs line50 vs 49.5 (+0.5) · avg 51.0
Role · shareSam TE 15 19.5%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 56.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 2 (142.5 allowed) · line 42.5 → 49.5
Median 50 against 49.5 (+0.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. Sam TE 15 19.5%. 2026: 48, 52. Opponent rank 2 on the stat (142.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 42.5 → 49.5.
Chargers @ Bills — Week 3
1:00 PM ET · CBSVenue
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
65°F, 2% rain, wind 14 mph (gusts 22)
Line
BUF -7.5 (+105) on our data platform · Chargers +7.5 on the platform (−106) and at one Nevada book; +7 elsewhere · Bills −7.5 +105 on the platform
Total
50.5 · opened 49.5, Nevada 49.5 at the market-maker, 50–50.5 elsewhere
⚡ THE JUICE. Everything is Buffalo: 78% of the public book's money, 98% of the market-maker's on 85% of tickets (+13), 86% of the platform's moneyline money — and the line has moved three full points, from Buffalo −4 at the open to −7 (−7.5 on the platform and at one Nevada book). The three ratings still say Buffalo by 7.9 to 10.8, and the Power Ratings list the Bills as the #1 underpriced favorite on the board (projected −10.8). The systems split down the middle: play Buffalo (gaining >6.75 yards a play, 20-9 ATS; 45-33 ATS in non-divisional conference games; home teams 8-2 ATS in the series) and fade Buffalo (scoring >31 PPG vs a non-prolific opponent, 11-23 ATS; the ≥77%-handle-on-a-6.5+-favorite system at 14-26; the rookie-coach at home and after-a-win fades; the two-win-difference majority-bets fade) — and play the Chargers on the 0-2-dogs angle (30-12 ATS) and Herbert off a double-digit loss (9-3-1). Keon Coleman and DJ Moore are Questionable; three Chargers linemen are OUT. The total (50.5) has 98% of the market-maker's money Over on 67% of tickets and 72% of the public book's — against the Chargers' 34-15 Under on Sundays and 20-7 on normal rest, the Over-handle trap system, and ratings a point under. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Keon Coleman (WR) Questionable, ankle; DJ Moore (WR) Questionable, shoulder; Lance (QB2) Questionable; Kolar (TE) OUT; Thompson (WR) OUT; three Chargers linemen OUT (Awosika, Pipkins, World).
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: LAC 22% of the spread money on 21% of tickets; Over 72% $ / 65% tix; moneyline LAC 10% $ / 8% tix. The market-maker: LAC 2% $ / 15% tix; Over 98% $ / 67% tix; moneyline LAC 3% $ / 33% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 5/95 bets, 14/86 money to Buffalo; spread 18/82 bets, 21/79 money to Buffalo; total 70/30 bets and 78/22 money to the Over. Tracker: opened -4.0, now -7.0 (home line) — Chargers +7.5 on the platform (−106) and at one Nevada book; +7 elsewhere · Bills −7.5 +105 on the platform; total opened 49.5, now 49.5 at the market-maker, 50–50.5 elsewhere. Three rating systems (home line): -10.8 / -7.9 / -10.5 vs the market -7.5; projected totals 50.0 / 49.2 vs 50.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): 0-2 SU & ATS dogs → 30-12 ATS ON LA Chargers (AJ's Angle); Herbert 9-3-1 ATS off a double-digit loss; #1 underpriced favorite on the Power Ratings: BUF −7 (projected −10.8); gaining >6.75 ypp → 20-9 ATS ON Buffalo (Trap #6); BUF 45-33 ATS non-div conference; home teams 8-2 ATS in the series; Scoring >31 PPG → FADE Buffalo (Trap #7); rookie coach (Brady) at home / after a win → FADE Buffalo; LAC 34-15 UNDER Sundays, 20-7 UNDER normal rest → PLAY UNDER; DK #11 → UNDER instead; #9 → OVER; DK splits #6 (≥77% handle on 6.5+ favorite) → FADE Buffalo; #8 → FADE Buffalo. The network's expert room: Chargers 4, Bills 3 (+ a Bills team-total Over).
🎯 STAY AWAY on the side — the money and the models are on Buffalo at a number that has already moved three points, and the fade-the-big-public-favorite systems are exactly the shape the report warns about. The Chargers' +7.5 on the platform is the best number on the board if you want the dog; we print it at 52 and do not publish. The total is a stay-away: sharp Over money against the Under systems. James Cook's over is a Conflicts read (LAC 7th vs the run) and stays WATCH.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card
QBLACWATCH
Justin Herbert
Herbert U224.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line200.5 vs 224.5 (−24.0) · avg 189.7
Role · share53/47 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 237.5 → 224.5
Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries eleven props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 200.5 against 224.5 (−24.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 53/47 pass/run. 2026: 209, 192. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 237.5 → 224.5.
WR1LACNO PLAY
Quentin Johnston
Johnston U39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line21.5 vs 39.5 (−18.0) · avg 37.2
Role · shareQuentin WR 11 20.8%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 60.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (300.5 allowed) · line 24.5 → 39.5
Median 21.5 against 39.5 (−18.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 40% of 2025. Quentin WR 11 20.8%. 2026: 17, 7. Opponent rank 30 on the stat (300.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 24.5 → 39.5. WR/CB −0.06 vs Christian Benford.
WR2LACWATCH
Ladd McConkey
McConkey U59.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line33.5 vs 59.5 (−26.0) · avg 41.4
Role · shareLadd WR 10 18.9%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 29.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (300.5 allowed) · line 54.5 → 59.5
33.5 median on 59.5 for the under, 82 in Week 1 — Buffalo is 30th against receiving yards, wrong way, Conflicts. Median 33.5 against 59.5 (−26.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. Ladd WR 10 18.9%. 2026: 82, 35. Opponent rank 30 on the stat (300.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 54.5 → 59.5. WR/CB +0.09 vs Dee Alford.
WR3LACWATCH
Tre' Harris
Harris U31.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line24 vs 31.5 (−7.5) · avg 29.2
Role · shareTre' WR 9 17.0%
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 17.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (300.5 allowed) · line 24.5 → 31.5
Median 24 against 31.5 (−7.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 83% of 2025. Tre' WR 9 17.0%. 2026: 20, 53. Opponent rank 30 on the stat (300.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 24.5 → 31.5. WR/CB +0.07 vs Maxwell Hairston.
RBLACNO PLAY
Omarion Hampton
Hampton U59.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line58.5 vs 59.5 (−1.0) · avg 60.9
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 40.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 12 (95 allowed) · line 65.5 → 59.5
Median 58.5 against 59.5 (−1.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 60% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 43, 94. Opponent rank 12 on the stat (95 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 65.5 → 59.5.
TELACNO PLAY
Oronde Gadsden
Gadsden U39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line28.5 vs 39.5 (−11.0) · avg 27.8
Role · shareOronde TE 4 7.5%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 0.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (300.5 allowed) · line 35.5 → 39.5
Median 28.5 against 39.5 (−11.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. Oronde TE 4 7.5%. 2026: 32, 18. Opponent rank 30 on the stat (300.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 35.5 → 39.5.
QBBUFNO PLAY
Josh Allen
Allen U249.5 pass yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—
Projection vs line249.5 vs 249.5 (−0.0) · avg 209.7
Role · share53/47 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 246.5 → 249.5
Median 249.5 against 249.5 (−0.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. 53/47 pass/run. 2026: 334, 248. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 246.5 → 249.5.
WR1BUFNO PLAY
Khalil Shakir
Shakir U49.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line44 vs 49.5 (−5.5) · avg 51.0
Role · shareKhalil WR 12 21.4%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 25 (265 allowed) · line 38.5 → 49.5
Median 44 against 49.5 (−5.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. Khalil WR 12 21.4%. 2026: 50, 38. Opponent rank 25 on the stat (265 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 38.5 → 49.5. WR/CB −0.11 vs Tarheeb Still.
WR2BUFNO PLAY
DJ Moore
Moore U49.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line34.5 vs 49.5 (−15.0) · avg 41.3
Role · shareDJ WR 8 14.3%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 42.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 25 (265 allowed) · line 49.5 → 49.5
Median 34.5 against 49.5 (−15.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 58% of 2025. DJ WR 8 14.3%. 2026: 100, 0. Opponent rank 25 on the stat (265 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 49.5 → 49.5. WR/CB −0.01 vs Donte Jackson. Questionable (shoulder).
WR3BUFNO LINE POSTED
Keon Coleman
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
Questionable (ankle) and no line posted at capture; 12.5% of Buffalo's targets when he plays.
RBBUFWATCH
James Cook III
Cook O79.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line93.5 vs 79.5 (+14.0) · avg 89.2
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 63.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (86.5 allowed) · line 80.5 → 79.5
93.5 median on 79.5, 135 last week — six of ten over; the Chargers are 7th against the run (two games), Conflicts. Median 93.5 against 79.5 (+14.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 57, 135. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (86.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 80.5 → 79.5.
TEBUFWATCH
Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid U59.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line44.5 vs 59.5 (−15.0) · avg 59.7
Role · shareDalton TE 14 25.0%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 29.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 25 (265 allowed) · line 51.5 → 59.5
44.5 median on 59.5 for the under — 130 and 95 this season say the median is stale; WATCH. Median 44.5 against 59.5 (−15.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 71% of 2025. Dalton TE 14 25.0%. 2026: 130, 95. Opponent rank 25 on the stat (265 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 51.5 → 59.5.
Vikings @ Buccaneers — Week 3
4:05 PM ET · FOXVenue
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
83°F, 0% rain, wind 4 mph
Line
TB +1.5 (−108) on our data platform · Buccaneers +1.5 on the platform (−108) and at five Nevada books; +1 at the market-maker and two others · Vikings −1.5 +108 on the platform
Total
42.5 · opened 46.5, Nevada 42 at the market-maker, 42.5 elsewhere
⚡ THE JUICE. Both books' sharp dollars are on the home dog: the public book has Tampa Bay at 77% of the money on 45% of tickets (+32), the market-maker 79% on 47% (+32), and the platform's moneyline money is 91% Buccaneers on 43% of tickets. The line has drifted toward Tampa (Minnesota −1.5 → −1 at the market-maker). The three ratings lean the other way — Minnesota by 2.1 to 3.3, a point of Vikings against the number — and that is the printed dissent. The systems are a Minnesota fade-fest: Kyler Murray, in his first season with a new team, is a road favorite (7-22-1 ATS for that group since 2021), on the road (33-50), off a win (28-40-1), and 6-12 ATS as a favorite himself; the 0-2-dogs angle (30-12 ATS) and Tampa's 7-1 hosting Minnesota play the Buccaneers. Against: Minnesota is 93-55-1 ATS on normal rest, won a game scoring under 12 (23-12-1 ATS next), and Tampa is 39-59 ATS at home and 31-43 off a loss. Murray is back from a concussion. The total has been crushed from 46.5 to 42.5 with both books' money Under (72% and 86%) — while the models (43.7 / 43.1), Murray's 12-1 Over vs losing teams and Bowles' 14-8 Over vs better records all say Over. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): No skill-position tags on either side; Samac (C) OUT for Tampa Bay. Murray is back at quarterback for Minnesota after a concussion (Wentz started Week 2).
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: MIN 23% of the spread money on 55% of tickets; Over 28% $ / 55% tix; moneyline MIN 47% $ / 60% tix. The market-maker: MIN 21% $ / 53% tix; Over 14% $ / 33% tix; moneyline MIN 49% $ / 70% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 57/43 bets but 9/91 money to Tampa Bay; spread 60/40 bets to Minnesota, 33/67 money to Tampa Bay; total 67/33 bets and 54/46 money to the Over. Tracker: opened -1.5, now +1.0 (home line) — Buccaneers +1.5 on the platform (−108) and at five Nevada books; +1 at the market-maker and two others · Vikings −1.5 +108 on the platform; total opened 46.5, now 42 at the market-maker, 42.5 elsewhere. Three rating systems (home line): +2.1 / +2.1 / +3.3 vs the market +1.5; projected totals 43.7 / 43.1 vs 42.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): 0-2 SU & ATS dogs → 30-12 ATS ON Tampa Bay (AJ's Angle); TB 7-1 hosting Minnesota; Won scoring <12 → 23-12-1 ATS ON Minnesota; MIN 93-55-1 ATS normal rest; vet QB non-div conference → ON Minnesota; Murray 6-12 ATS as a favorite; vet QB road 33-50 ATS, road favorite 7-22-1 ATS, off a win 28-40-1 → FADE Minnesota; TB 31-43 ATS off a loss, 39-59 ATS at home → FADE Tampa Bay; Murray 12-1 OVER vs losing teams; Bowles 14-8 OVER vs better record → PLAY OVER; vet-QB September UNDER 49-33-1 → UNDER (split); DK splits #5 → ON Minnesota; #8 (2+ wins) → FADE Minnesota. The network's expert room: Buccaneers 4, Vikings 0.
🎯 TAMPA BAY +1.5 (−108 on the platform; +1.5 at five Nevada books, +1 at the market-maker) — conviction 55. Two sharp money layers, the platform's moneyline money, the report's lead angle and four vet-QB-new-team fades of Minnesota. Argument against: all three ratings say Minnesota by 2 to 3, and the Vikings on normal rest are a 62% ATS team since 2011. The total is a STAY AWAY: the money has moved it four and a half points to the Under and the models and systems say Over. Addison's under stays WATCH with Murray back.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 0 on the card
QBMINNO LINE POSTED
Kyler Murray
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
No passing-yards line posted for Minnesota's quarterback at capture — he carried rushing (20.5) and touchdown markets only. A Las Vegas network's AI model projects 183 passing yards (UNDER 208.5 where posted, one star).
WR1MINWATCH
Justin Jefferson
Jefferson U71.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line51.5 vs 71.5 (−20.0) · avg 50.9
Role · shareJustin WR 15 35.7%
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (246 allowed) · line 72.5 → 71.5
Median 51.5 against 71.5 (−20.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. Justin WR 15 35.7%. 2026: 92, 55. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (246 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 72.5 → 71.5. WR/CB +0.24 vs Benjamin Morrison. QB Murray back — Week 2 was Wentz.
WR2MINWATCH
Jordan Addison
Addison U39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line20.5 vs 39.5 (−19.0) · avg 23.9
Role · shareJordan WR 7 16.7%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 0.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 43.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (246 allowed) · line 33.5 → 39.5
20.5 median on 36.5 for the under, ten of ten under — and Kyler Murray is back, which changes the pie; 0 and 21 this season. Median 20.5 against 39.5 (−19.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 57% of 2025. Jordan WR 7 16.7%. 2026: 0, 21. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (246 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 33.5 → 39.5. WR/CB +0.19 vs Zyon McCollum. QB Murray back — Week 2 was Wentz.
WR3MINWATCH
Jauan Jennings
Jennings O14.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line40 vs 14.5 (+25.5) · avg 38.7
Role · shareJauan WR 1 2.4%
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 94.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (246 allowed) · line 7.5 → 14.5
40 median on 14.5 with a 90% ten-game window — earned in San Francisco; his Minnesota share is 2.4% of the targets and his one 2026 game is a zero. The transfer mirage, declined by name. Median 40 against 14.5 (+25.5); over in 90% of the last ten and 94% of 2025. Jauan WR 1 2.4%. 2026: 0. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (246 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 7.5 → 14.5. WR/CB +0.12 vs Keionte Scott.
RBMINNO PLAY
Aaron Jones Sr.
Jones U50.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—
Projection vs line50 vs 50.5 (−0.5) · avg 55.4
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 42.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 4 (75 allowed) · line 62.5 → 50.5
Median 50 against 50.5 (−0.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 58% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 40, 105. Opponent rank 4 on the stat (75 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 62.5 → 50.5. committee with Gainwell.
TEMINNO PLAY
T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson U30.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line24 vs 30.5 (−6.5) · avg 28.1
Role · shareT.J. TE 9 21.4%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 21 (246 allowed) · line 32.5 → 30.5
Median 24 against 30.5 (−6.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. T.J. TE 9 21.4%. 2026: 36, 29. Opponent rank 21 on the stat (246 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 32.5 → 30.5. QB Murray back.
QBTBWATCH
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield U224.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line188 vs 224.5 (−36.5) · avg 189.9
Role · share61/40 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 209.5 → 224.5
Median 188 against 224.5 (−36.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. 61/40 pass/run. 2026: 216, 182. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 209.5 → 224.5.
WR1TBWATCH
Emeka Egbuka
Egbuka U49.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line36 vs 49.5 (−13.5) · avg 34.0
Role · shareEmeka WR 11 18.3%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 41.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 29 (289.5 allowed) · line 54.5 → 49.5
36 median on 49.5 for the under — Minnesota is 29th against receiving yards, wrong way, Conflicts. Median 36 against 49.5 (−13.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 59% of 2025. Emeka WR 11 18.3%. 2026: 63, 16. Opponent rank 29 on the stat (289.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 54.5 → 49.5. WR/CB −0.18 vs Isaiah Rodgers.
WR2TBWATCH
Ted Hurst III
Hurst O/U 24.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line31.5 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 24.5
Role · shareTed WR 10 16.7%
Hit windows2026 100% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 29 (289.5 allowed) · opened 25.5
A current-season panel only: 36, 27 in 2 games against a 24.5 line, Ted WR 10 16.7%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player.
WR3TBNO PLAY
Chris Godwin Jr.
Godwin U35.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 2.0—
Projection vs line35 vs 35.5 (−0.5) · avg 42.0
Role · shareChris WR 7 11.7%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (under side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 67.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 29 (289.5 allowed) · line 32.5 → 35.5
Median 35 against 35.5 (−0.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 33% of 2025. Chris WR 7 11.7%. 2026: 40, 46. Opponent rank 29 on the stat (289.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 32.5 → 35.5. WR/CB −0.19 vs Byron Murphy.
RBTBWATCH
Bucky Irving
Irving O59.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line62 vs 59.5 (+2.5) · avg 61.4
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 70.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 14 (100 allowed) · line 58.5 → 59.5
Median 62 against 59.5 (+2.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 70% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 45, 89. Opponent rank 14 on the stat (100 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 58.5 → 59.5.
TETBNO PLAY
Cade Otton
Otton U29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line27 vs 29.5 (−2.5) · avg 36.5
Role · shareCade TE 11 18.3%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 29 (289.5 allowed) · line 35.5 → 29.5
Median 27 against 29.5 (−2.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. Cade TE 11 18.3%. 2026: 26, 38. Opponent rank 29 on the stat (289.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 35.5 → 29.5.
Cardinals @ 49ers — Week 3
4:05 PM ET · CBSVenue
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
67°F, 1% rain, wind 8 mph
Line
SF -8.5 (+108) on our data platform · Cardinals +8.5 on the platform (−109) and at six Nevada books; +8 at two · 49ers −8.5 +108 on the platform
Total
47.5 · opened 48.5, Nevada 47.5–48.5
⚡ THE JUICE. The market-maker's dollars are 72% Arizona on 22% of tickets — a +50 gap, the largest on the slate — and its moneyline money is 74% Cardinals; the public book's tickets are 75% San Francisco (CONTRARIAN → Arizona); the platform's money is 80% 49ers. The number has not moved off 8.5. The three ratings split: Power and Bettors' say San Francisco by 11.6 and 11.8 (three points of 49ers), Effective Strength says 6.3 (two points of Cardinals) and lists Arizona as the 4th most underpriced dog. The systems lean Arizona: teams that lost scoring ≤7 with ≤10 first downs are 43-23 ATS as dogs next time out, ≤10-point losers are 63-34-3 as divisional dogs, and the fades of San Francisco stack — best defenses favored by 3+ (14-31-1), undefeated +25 teams (19-31-2), Purdy 2-10 ATS after a 30-point game, three splits-system fades (#2, #3, #6). Against Arizona: 1-1 dogs of 3.5+ (14-24), 13-25 ATS divisional, the rookie-coach divisional fade, and Shanahan's 18-3 vs poor offenses. Mike Evans is Questionable; Demarcus Robinson OUT. The total (47.5 → 48) has the books on opposite sides — 76% of the market-maker's money Over on 17% of tickets (+59), 52% of the public book's Under on 38% of tickets. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Evans (WR) Questionable, hip; D. Robinson (WR) OUT; Guerendo (RB) OUT; Reiman (TE) OUT for Arizona.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: ARI 23% of the spread money on 25% of tickets; Over 48% $ / 62% tix; moneyline ARI 34% $ / 5% tix. The market-maker: ARI 72% $ / 22% tix; Over 76% $ / 17% tix; moneyline ARI 74% $ / 67% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 3/97 bets, 13/87 money to San Francisco; spread 30/70 bets, 20/80 money to San Francisco; total 63/37 bets and 65/35 money to the Over. Tracker: opened -8.5, now -8.5 (home line) — Cardinals +8.5 on the platform (−109) and at six Nevada books; +8 at two · 49ers −8.5 +108 on the platform; total opened 48.5, now 47.5–48.5. Three rating systems (home line): -11.6 / -6.3 / -11.8 vs the market -8.5; projected totals 47.0 / 47.5 vs 47.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): Best defenses favored by 3+ → 14-31-1 ATS FADE San Francisco (Trap #5); undefeated +25 → FADE SF (Trap #8); Purdy 2-10 ATS after a 30-point game; Lost scoring ≤7 with ≤10 first downs → 43-23 ATS as a dog ON Arizona; scored ≤10 → divisional dog 63-34-3 ON Arizona; 1-1 dog +3.5 or more → FADE Arizona (Trap #3); Shanahan 18-3 SU/ATS vs poor offenses → ON San Francisco; ARI 13-25 ATS divisional; rookie coach (LaFleur) divisional → FADE Arizona; Shanahan 48-31 OVER normal rest; Over 7-2 in the series; DK #9 → OVER; DK splits #2/#3 divisional majority → FADE San Francisco; #6 → FADE San Francisco; #8 → ON San Francisco. The network's expert room: 49ers 1, Cardinals 1.
🎯 ARIZONA +8.5 (−109 on the platform; +8.5 at six Nevada books) — conviction 54. The widest sharp gap on the board, the public on the other side, one rating and a stack of record-backed systems fading the favorite. Argument against, and it is real: two of three ratings say the 49ers are underpriced by three, and Arizona scored 7 last week with 10 first downs. Brissett's passing over is the same script — a dog that throws all afternoon — and is printed as a group of two. The total is a STAY AWAY: the books disagree by dollars.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBARIPLAY
Jacoby Brissett
Brissett O224.5 pass yds★★★★★ 8.5−118
Projection vs line260 vs 224.5 (+35.5) · avg 262.0
Role · share57/43 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 71.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 229.5 → 224.5
A 260 median and a 262 average against 224.5 — thirty-five yards of cushion for a quarterback who threw for 277 in his last full game and averages 39 attempts in an offense that throws 57% and will be trailing by a touchdown-plus at San Francisco. The line came down five from the open. A Las Vegas network's AI model projects 246 and calls the OVER a two-star play — the second opinion agrees, printed, not scored. San Francisco's pass defense (9th, two games) is the dissent, and so is the 95 in Week 2 that came in a game Arizona never had to throw in.
WR1ARIWATCH
Michael Wilson
Wilson O49.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line72.5 vs 49.5 (+23.0) · avg 84.9
Role · shareMichael WR 14 22.2%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (182.5 allowed) · line 43.5 → 49.5
72.5 median on 49.5 at +114 — San Francisco is 7th against receiving yards (Conflicts) and he had 18 last week. Median 72.5 against 49.5 (+23.0); over in 80% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. Michael WR 14 22.2%. 2026: 56, 18. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (182.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 43.5 → 49.5. WR/CB −0.04 vs Deommodore Lenoir.
WR2ARIWATCH
Kendrick Bourne
Bourne U24.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line5.5 vs 24.5 (−19.0) · avg 15.5
Role · shareKendrick WR 11 17.5%
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (182.5 allowed) · line 26.5 → 24.5
Median 5.5 against 24.5 (−19.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. Kendrick WR 11 17.5%. 2026: 75, 11. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (182.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 26.5 → 24.5. WR/CB +0.05 vs Upton Stout.
WR3ARINO PLAY
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison U39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line33 vs 39.5 (−6.5) · avg 43.3
Role · shareMarvin WR 4 6.3%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 58.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (182.5 allowed) · line 25.5 → 39.5
Median 33 against 39.5 (−6.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 42% of 2025. Marvin WR 4 6.3%. 2026: 33, 0. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (182.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 25.5 → 39.5. WR/CB −0.06 vs Renardo Green.
RBARINO PLAY
Tyler Allgeier
Allgeier U29.5 rush yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line21.5 vs 29.5 (−8.0) · avg 31.5
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 41.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (112 allowed) · line 29.5 → 29.5
Median 21.5 against 29.5 (−8.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 59% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 61, 10. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (112 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 29.5 → 29.5.
TEARIWATCH
Trey McBride
McBride O69.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line77.5 vs 69.5 (+8.0) · avg 77.2
Role · shareTrey TE 23 36.5%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 7 (182.5 allowed) · line 61.5 → 69.5
77.5 median on 69.5 with 95 and 41 this season and 36.5% of the targets — six of ten over; San Francisco 7th against receiving yards is the dock. Median 77.5 against 69.5 (+8.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. Trey TE 23 36.5%. 2026: 95, 41. Opponent rank 7 on the stat (182.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 61.5 → 69.5.
QBSFNO PLAY
Brock Purdy
Purdy U249.5 pass yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line233.5 vs 249.5 (−16.0) · avg 227.5
Role · share50/50 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 55.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 238.5 → 249.5
Median 233.5 against 249.5 (−16.0); under in 50% of the last ten and 45% of 2025. 50/50 pass/run. 2026: 205, 287. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 238.5 → 249.5.
WR1SFWATCH
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Samuel U39.5 rec yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.5—
Projection vs line39 vs 39.5 (−0.5) · avg 43.9
Role · shareDeebo WR 11 20.0%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 56.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (222 allowed) · line 38.5 → 39.5
39 median on 39.5 — the line is the median. Median 39 against 39.5 (−0.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 44% of 2025. Deebo WR 11 20.0%. 2026: 48, 31. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (222 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 38.5 → 39.5. WR/CB +0.09 vs Denzel Burke.
WR2SFWATCH
Mike Evans
Evans U55.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line41.5 vs 55.5 (−14.0) · avg 47.1
Role · shareMike WR 10 18.2%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 0.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 25.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (222 allowed) · line 53.5 → 55.5
41.5 median on 55.5 for the under, eight of ten — Questionable (hip); a tag is a cap and a void risk. Median 41.5 against 55.5 (−14.0); under in 80% of the last ten and 75% of 2025. Mike WR 10 18.2%. 2026: 49, 54. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (222 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 53.5 → 55.5. WR/CB +0.10 vs Max Melton. Questionable (hip).
WR3SFNO LINE POSTED
San Francisco WR3
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
Demarcus Robinson is OUT (ankle) and no third 49ers receiver carried a receiving line at capture; the WR/CB tool lists Jacob Cowing (+0.15 vs Will Johnson) as the next man up. Nothing to rate.
RBSFWATCH
Kaelon Black
Black O/U 32.5 rush yds—
Projection vs line45 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 32.5
Role · shareKaelon RB 21 36.8%
Hit windows2026 50% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 22 (121.5 allowed) · opened 33.5
A current-season panel only: 65, 25 in 2 games against a 32.5 line, Kaelon RB 21 36.8%. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player.
TESFWATCH
George Kittle
Kittle O49.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line72.5 vs 49.5 (+23.0) · avg 62.6
Role · shareGeorge TE 9 16.4%
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 17 (222 allowed) · line 39.5 → 49.5
Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries eleven props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 72.5 against 49.5 (+23.0); over in 70% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. George TE 9 16.4%. 2026: 12, 80. Opponent rank 17 on the stat (222 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 39.5 → 49.5.
Raiders @ Saints — Week 3
4:25 PM ET · FOXVenue
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA · Dome
Weather at kickoff
Indoors (dome)
Line
NO -3.0 (−109) on our data platform · Raiders +3.5 at one Nevada book (Stations); +3 elsewhere (platform +108) · Saints −3 −109 on the platform
Total
43.5 · opened 44.5, Nevada 43.5 (44 at two books)
⚡ THE JUICE. The market-maker's dollars are 87% New Orleans on 70% of tickets (+17, SHARP) and the platform's spread money is 79% Saints; the public book is a mild Saints lean (56/62). The line is pinned at 3. The three ratings have New Orleans by 2.6 to 4.5 — a half-point of Saints, a rounding error. The systems are a pile-up: the report's featured angle plays Las Vegas (veteran quarterbacks in year one with a new team as road dogs of +5.5 or less are 49-24 ATS), as do LV off allowing ≤14 (12-4), the series (3-1) and the rookie-coach small-dog system; the fades of Las Vegas are longer — the undefeated +25 fade (19-31-2), the vet-QB road, non-conference and off-a-win fades (33-50, 15-36, 28-40-1), LV 40-55 ATS on the road, the rookie-coach after-a-win fade — and New Orleans is 27-47 ATS at home. The room is 5-0 Saints. Bowers is Questionable (knee — meniscus). The total (43.5) has the books on opposite sides — 87% of the public book's money Over, 59% of the market-maker's Under on 36% of tickets (+23) — against the vet-QB September Under (49-33-1) and the road-dog Under (17-8). Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Bowers (TE) Questionable, knee — meniscus; O'Connell (QB2) Questionable; B. Brown (WR) OUT and Tipton (WR) OUT for New Orleans.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: LV 44% of the spread money on 38% of tickets; Over 87% $ / 77% tix; moneyline LV 64% $ / 32% tix. The market-maker: LV 13% $ / 30% tix; Over 41% $ / 64% tix; moneyline LV 29% $ / 67% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 32/68 bets, 45/55 money to New Orleans; spread 38/62 bets, 21/79 money to New Orleans; total 78/22 bets and 72/28 money to the Over. Tracker: opened -3.0, now -3.0 (home line) — Raiders +3.5 at one Nevada book (Stations); +3 elsewhere (platform +108) · Saints −3 −109 on the platform; total opened 44.5, now 43.5 (44 at two books). Three rating systems (home line): -4.5 / -2.6 / -4.0 vs the market -3.0; projected totals 43.1 / 43.1 vs 43.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): Vet QB (Cousins) new team as road dog ≤+5.5 → 49-24 ATS ON Las Vegas (AJ's Angle); LV 12-4 ATS off allowing ≤14; LV 3-1 vs NO; rookie coach (Kubiak) +1 to +3 dog → ON Las Vegas; Undefeated +25 diff → 19-31-2 ATS FADE Las Vegas (Trap #8); vet QB road 33-50, non-conference 15-36, off a win 28-40-1 → FADE Las Vegas; LV 40-55 ATS road; rookie coach after a win → FADE; NO 27-47 ATS at home → FADE New Orleans; Vet-QB September UNDER 49-33-1 and road-dog-≤5.5 UNDER 17-8 → PLAY UNDER 43.5; DK splits #4 → ON Las Vegas; #8 → ON New Orleans. The network's expert room: Saints 5, Raiders 0; Over 1.
🎯 STAY AWAY on the side — New Orleans −3 prints at 52: one sharp layer, a half-point of ratings, the room, and the key number with the hook against you. The ledger says a half-point of model is not a model layer. The total is a stay-away by rule: the books disagree by dollars. Juwan Johnson's receiving over is the leg — a tight end with twenty-two yards of cushion in a 65%-pass offense.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBLVWATCH
Kirk Cousins
Cousins U199.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line188.5 vs 199.5 (−11.0) · avg 193.2
Role · share48/52 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 20.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 199.5 → 199.5
Median 188.5 against 199.5 (−11.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 80% of 2025. 48/52 pass/run. 2026: 160, 253. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 199.5 → 199.5.
WR1LVWATCH
Tre Tucker
Tucker U49.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 8.0—
Projection vs line29 vs 49.5 (−20.5) · avg 38.7
Role · shareTre WR 11 19.0%
Hit windowsL10 10 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 24.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (220.5 allowed) · line 38.5 → 49.5
Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries eleven props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 29 against 49.5 (−20.5); under in 90% of the last ten and 76% of 2025. Tre WR 11 19.0%. 2026: 27, 119. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (220.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 38.5 → 49.5. WR/CB +0.17 vs Quincy Riley.
WR2LVNO PLAY
Jalen Nailor
Nailor U24.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line12.5 vs 24.5 (−12.0) · avg 17.8
Role · shareJalen WR 8 13.8%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (220.5 allowed) · line 18.5 → 24.5
Median 12.5 against 24.5 (−12.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. Jalen WR 8 13.8%. 2026: 27, 9. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (220.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 18.5 → 24.5. WR/CB +0.16 vs Kool-Aid McKinstry.
WR3LVWATCH
Jack Bech
Bech O15.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line20.5 vs 15.5 (+5.0) · avg 19.9
Role · shareJack WR 6 10.3%
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (220.5 allowed) · line 16.5 → 15.5
Median 20.5 against 15.5 (+5.0); over in 70% of the last ten and 44% of 2025. Jack WR 6 10.3%. 2026: 23, 25. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (220.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 16.5 → 15.5. WR/CB +0.09 vs Jonas Sanker.
RBLVWATCH
Ashton Jeanty
Jeanty U69.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line49 vs 69.5 (−20.5) · avg 57.8
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 24.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 27 (136.5 allowed) · line 65.5 → 69.5
49 median on 69.5 for the under, 102 last week — New Orleans is 27th against the run, wrong way, Conflicts. Median 49 against 69.5 (−20.5); under in 70% of the last ten and 76% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 102, 48. Opponent rank 27 on the stat (136.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 65.5 → 69.5.
TELVNO PLAY
Brock Bowers
Bowers U49.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line46 vs 49.5 (−3.5) · avg 53.9
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 — · 2025 42.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 16 (220.5 allowed) · line 52.5 → 49.5
Median 46 against 49.5 (−3.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 58% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: —. Opponent rank 16 on the stat (220.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 52.5 → 49.5. Questionable (knee — meniscus surgery).
QBNOWATCH
Tyler Shough
Shough O249.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line265.5 vs 249.5 (+16.0) · avg 274.2
Role · share65/35 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 100.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 45.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 236.5 → 249.5
Median 265.5 against 249.5 (+16.0); over in 70% of the last ten and 45% of 2025. 65/35 pass/run. 2026: 410, 252. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 236.5 → 249.5.
WR1NOWATCH
Chris Olave
Olave O79.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line85.5 vs 79.5 (+6.0) · avg 92.8
Role · shareChris WR 23 27.4%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 100.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 38.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (206 allowed) · line 71.5 → 79.5
85.5 median on 79.5, 182 and 86 this season, 27% share — six of ten over and the line came down eight; the −0.10 WR/CB read and a 43.5 total are why it is WATCH. Median 85.5 against 79.5 (+6.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 38% of 2025. Chris WR 23 27.4%. 2026: 182, 86. Opponent rank 11 on the stat (206 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 71.5 → 79.5. WR/CB −0.10 vs Hezekiah Masses.
WR2NOWATCH
Devaughn Vele
Vele U49.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line38.5 vs 49.5 (−11.0) · avg 39.7
Role · shareDevaughn WR 16 19.0%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 15.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (206 allowed) · line 45.5 → 49.5
Scores as a PLAY on the panel and stays WATCH on the card — the slate carries eleven props and this one lost the tiebreak on volume, tag or matchup. Median 38.5 against 49.5 (−11.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 85% of 2025. Devaughn WR 16 19.0%. 2026: 69, 64. Opponent rank 11 on the stat (206 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 45.5 → 49.5. WR/CB −0.08 vs Taron Johnson.
WR3NOWATCH
Bryce Lance
Lance O/U 16.5 rec yds—
Projection vs line25 (2026 only, 2 games) vs 16.5
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windows2026 50% (2) — no ten-game window
Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (206 allowed) · opened 16.5
A current-season panel only: 42, 8 in 2 games against a 16.5 line, share not in the panel table. No ten-game window exists for this player in this role, so the tile is rated WATCH — the continuity gate, not a read on the player.
RBNOWATCH
Travis Etienne Jr.
Etienne O39.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line48 vs 39.5 (+8.5) · avg 51.6
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 78.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 15 (100.5 allowed) · line 35.5 → 39.5
Median 48 against 39.5 (+8.5); over in 60% of the last ten and 78% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 46, 25. Opponent rank 15 on the stat (100.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 35.5 → 39.5.
TENOPLAY
Juwan Johnson
Johnson O35.5 rec yds★★★★☆ 7.0−113
Projection vs line57.5 vs 35.5 (+22.0) · avg 61.0
Role · shareJuwan TE 11 13.1%
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 100.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 71.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 11 (206 allowed) · line 33.5 → 35.5
A 57.5 median on a 35.5 line — twenty-two yards of cushion — for a tight end who has cleared the number in nine of his last ten and 71% of 2025, with 54 and 66 in the two games this season. New Orleans throws 65% of its snaps behind Shough and Las Vegas is 11th against receiving yards, two games. The books raised it two from the open. The dissent is the share: 13% of the targets is a third option, and a low-scoring Saints script starves him.
Ravens @ Cowboys — Week 3
4:25 PM ET · CBSVenue
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX · Dome
Weather at kickoff
Indoors (dome)
Line
DAL +3.5 (−110) on our data platform · Cowboys +3.5 everywhere (platform −110; +3 at the public book) · Ravens −3.5 +107 on the platform
Total
53.5 · opened 53.0, Nevada 53 (53.5 at two books)
⚡ THE JUICE. The spread money is split by book: the public book has Baltimore at 54% of the money on 45% of tickets (+9), the market-maker has Dallas at 37% of the money on 25% of tickets (+12 — a thin SHARP read on the home dog), and the platform's spread money is 54% Dallas. The line is pinned at 3.5. The three ratings say Baltimore by 3.1 to 4.3 — on the number. The systems play Baltimore (gaining >6.75 yards a play, 20-9 ATS; Lamar 8-4 ATS vs elite offenses; 49-27 ATS on the road; Dak 7-13 ATS as a single-digit dog) and fade the rookie coach as a small favorite. The room is 7-2 Ravens. Ronnie Stanley is OUT at left tackle; Flowers is Questionable; Dallas is missing Durant, Hooker and Overshown on defense. The total (53.5) is where the books fight: 85% of the public book's money is Over on 68% of tickets, 67% of the market-maker's is UNDER on 18% of tickets (+49 — the largest total gap on the board), and the platform's money is 76% Over. The models are three points UNDER (50.9 / 50.4) and the Over-handle trap system says Under; Dak's 14-2 Over off a home win and the series' 5-0-1 Over say the opposite. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Flowers (WR) Questionable, hamstring; Stanley (T) OUT — Baltimore's left tackle. Dallas: Durant (CB), Hooker (S), Overshown (LB) OUT — the secondary is thin.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: BAL 54% of the spread money on 45% of tickets; Over 85% $ / 68% tix; moneyline BAL 61% $ / 67% tix. The market-maker: BAL 63% $ / 75% tix; Over 33% $ / 82% tix; moneyline BAL 45% $ / 60% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 68/32 bets, 53/47 money to Baltimore; spread 44/56 bets, 46/54 money to Dallas; total 75/25 bets and 76/24 money to the Over. Tracker: opened +3.5, now +3.5 (home line) — Cowboys +3.5 everywhere (platform −110; +3 at the public book) · Ravens −3.5 +107 on the platform; total opened 53.0, now 53 (53.5 at two books). Three rating systems (home line): +3.1 / +3.9 / +4.3 vs the market +3.5; projected totals 50.9 / 50.4 vs 53.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): Gaining >6.75 ypp → 20-9 ATS ON Baltimore (Trap #6); Lamar 8-4 ATS vs elite offenses; BAL 49-27 ATS road; Dak 7-13 ATS as a single-digit dog → ON Baltimore; Rookie coach (Minter) as a small favorite → FADE Baltimore; Dak 14-2 OVER off a home win; Over 5-0-1 in the series; DK #9 → OVER; Effective Strength / Bettors Rating: UNDER edge −1.6 / −2.1 (53.5 vs 50.9 / 50.4); DK #11 (≥74% handle Over) → UNDER instead; DK splits #4 → ON Dallas. The network's expert room: Ravens 7, Cowboys 2.
🎯 STAY AWAY on both. The side is fair by every rating and the money is split by book. The total has the market-maker's largest sharp Under gap on the slate and two models three points under — and the public book's dollars are Over, which is the rule that stops it: books disagreeing by dollars is a stay-away, printed loudly, because the Under 53.5 is the lean we would most like to publish. Henry's rushing over and Lamar's passing under are the two legs, one script: Baltimore runs and Dallas cannot stop it.
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 2 on the card
QBBALPLAY
Lamar Jackson
Jackson U249.5 pass yds−114
Projection vs line206 vs 249.5 (−43.5) · avg 203.5
Role · share51/49 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 10 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 8.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 229.5 → 249.5
Under 239.5 on a 206 median — under in eight of his last ten and 85% of 2025 — for a quarterback whose offense runs 49% of the time and whose 2026 games are 324 and 235. A Las Vegas network's AI model projects 210 (UNDER, one star) — agreement, printed, not scored. Dallas is 17th against the pass (two games). The dissent is the total (53.5) and the 324 in Week 1: a shootout is the one script that beats this.
WR1BALWATCH
Rashod Bateman
Bateman U39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line9 vs 39.5 (−30.5) · avg 20.0
Role · shareRashod WR 10 18.9%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 15.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 15 (218.5 allowed) · line 41.5 → 39.5
Median 9 against 39.5 (−30.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 85% of 2025. Rashod WR 10 18.9%. 2026: 0, 88. Opponent rank 15 on the stat (218.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 41.5 → 39.5. WR/CB +0.40 vs DaRon Bland. WR2 Flowers Questionable.
WR2BALWATCH
Zay Flowers
Flowers O71.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.5—
Projection vs line76.5 vs 71.5 (+5.0) · avg 81.1
Role · shareZay WR 6 11.3%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 15 (218.5 allowed) · line 75.5 → 71.5
76.5 median on 71.5, 150 in his one game — Questionable (hamstring); a tag is a cap. Median 76.5 against 71.5 (+5.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 53% of 2025. Zay WR 6 11.3%. 2026: 150. Opponent rank 15 on the stat (218.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 75.5 → 71.5. WR/CB +0.22 vs Caleb Downs (slot). Questionable (hamstring).
WR3BALWATCH
Chris Moore
Moore U17.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line0 vs 17.5 (−17.5) · avg 10.2
Role · shareChris WR 5 9.4%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 36.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 15 (218.5 allowed) · line 19.5 → 17.5
Median 0 against 17.5 (−17.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 64% of 2025. Chris WR 5 9.4%. 2026: 53, 6. Opponent rank 15 on the stat (218.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 19.5 → 17.5. WR/CB +0.40 vs Shavon Revel.
RBBALPLAY
Derrick Henry
Henry O89.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 7.5−114
Projection vs line101.5 vs 89.5 (+12.0) · avg 110.3
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 30 (173.5 allowed) · line 85.5 → 89.5
A 101.5 median on 89.5 with 144 in Week 1 and 68 in Week 2 (a game Baltimore trailed), seven of ten over, on the lead back of a 3.5-point favorite against a Dallas run defense allowing 173.5 a game (30th, two games). The books raised it four from the open — the market moving against a panel that still clears it by twelve. The dissent is Dallas' offense: a shootout (53.5 total) turns a 30-carry game into 20, and Stanley's absence at left tackle is the other one.
TEBALWATCH
Mark Andrews
Andrews U39.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line24.5 vs 39.5 (−15.0) · avg 27.6
Role · shareMark TE 13 24.5%
Hit windowsL10 30 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 100.0 · 2025 12.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 15 (218.5 allowed) · line 46.5 → 39.5
Median 24.5 against 39.5 (−15.0); under in 70% of the last ten and 88% of 2025. Mark TE 13 24.5%. 2026: 49, 49. Opponent rank 15 on the stat (218.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 46.5 → 39.5. Flowers Questionable — targets move.
QBDALWATCH
Dak Prescott
Prescott O274.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line286.5 vs 274.5 (+12.0) · avg 268.7
Role · share63/37 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 41.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 269.5 → 274.5
Median 286.5 against 274.5 (+12.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 41% of 2025. 63/37 pass/run. 2026: 175, 279. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 269.5 → 274.5.
WR1DALWATCH
CeeDee Lamb
Lamb U82.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line70.5 vs 82.5 (−12.0) · avg 78.3
Role · shareCeeDee WR 17 27.9%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (209 allowed) · line 79.5 → 82.5
Median 70.5 against 82.5 (−12.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. CeeDee WR 17 27.9%. 2026: 44, 153. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (209 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 79.5 → 82.5. WR/CB −0.02 vs Nate Wiggins.
WR2DALNO PLAY
George Pickens
Pickens U59.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line59 vs 59.5 (−0.5) · avg 73.3
Role · shareGeorge WR 14 23.0%
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 71.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (209 allowed) · line 59.5 → 59.5
Median 59 against 59.5 (−0.5); under in 50% of the last ten and 29% of 2025. George WR 14 23.0%. 2026: 28, 40. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (209 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 59.5 → 59.5. WR/CB +0.04 vs Marlon Humphrey.
WR3DALNO PLAY
Ryan Flournoy
Flournoy U29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line22.5 vs 29.5 (−7.0) · avg 33.4
Role · shareRyan WR 10 16.4%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 38.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (209 allowed) · line 27.5 → 29.5
Median 22.5 against 29.5 (−7.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 62% of 2025. Ryan WR 10 16.4%. 2026: 22, 23. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (209 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 27.5 → 29.5. WR/CB −0.11 vs Kyle Hamilton.
RBDALNO PLAY
Javonte Williams
Williams O59.5 rush yds★☆☆☆☆ 3.0—
Projection vs line63 vs 59.5 (+3.5) · avg 63.9
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 63.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 5 (83.5 allowed) · line 64.5 → 59.5
Median 63 against 59.5 (+3.5); over in 50% of the last ten and 63% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 41, 30. Opponent rank 5 on the stat (83.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 64.5 → 59.5.
TEDALNO PLAY
Jake Ferguson
Ferguson U29.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line17.5 vs 29.5 (−12.0) · avg 26.5
Role · shareJake TE 6 9.8%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 53.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 13 (209 allowed) · line 26.5 → 29.5
Median 17.5 against 29.5 (−12.0); under in 60% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. Jake TE 6 9.8%. 2026: 6, 43. Opponent rank 13 on the stat (209 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 26.5 → 29.5.
Rams @ Broncos — Sunday Night Football
8:20 PM ET · NBCVenue
Empower Field · Denver, CO · Outdoors
Weather at kickoff
81°F, 5% rain, wind 15 mph (gusts 31)
Line
DEN +2.5 (−108) on our data platform · Broncos +2.5 everywhere (platform −108; +2 at one Nevada book for the Rams) · Rams −2.5 +106 on the platform
Total
44.5 · opened 45.5, Nevada 44
⚡ THE JUICE. The market-maker's dollars are 92% Denver on 33% of tickets — a +59 gap, the loudest on the slate — and its moneyline money is 86% Broncos; the public book's dollars are 63% RAMS on 51% of tickets (+12), and so is the platform's money (69% Rams). Sharp dollars on opposite teams by book — a stay-away by rule on the side, and it hurts, because the three ratings have Denver +0.4 / +2.2 / 0.0 (a point and a half of Broncos) and the Bettors' Rating lists Denver among the most underpriced dogs. The systems: Sunday-night home dogs 29-19-2 ATS, hosts off a win 25-19, dogs have covered the last seven in this series, Rams 18-7 ATS on short rest; against, AFC-NFC Sunday-night hosts 22-31-2, Denver 2-9 ATS in its Sunday-night skid and 11-22-2 in primetime. Nacua is DOUBTFUL, Parkinson Questionable. The total (44.5 on the platform; 44 at every Nevada book) has both books' sharp dollars UNDER — 65% on 40% of tickets at the public book (+25), 100% on 71% at the market-maker (+29) — and the platform's money 64% Under; the models straddle it (43.8 / 45.0); and the systems stack: road favorites with totals of 44+ (27-9 Under), AFC-NFC Sunday-night games 32-15 Under, Denver 111-75 Under since 2015, the Rams 8-2 Under on Sunday nights, both teams' primetime Under trends. Wind 15 mph, gusts to 31. Injuries (platform tab, 3:13–3:19 PM ET): Nacua (WR2) DOUBTFUL, hip; Parkinson (TE) Questionable; Mims (WR) Questionable; J. Coleman (RB) OUT; Gargiulo (G) OUT.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book: LA 63% of the spread money on 51% of tickets; Over 35% $ / 60% tix; moneyline LA 63% $ / 75% tix. The market-maker: LA 8% $ / 67% tix; Over 0% $ / 29% tix; moneyline LA 14% $ / 14% tix. Our data platform (Match Details): moneyline 74/26 bets, 70/30 money to the Rams; spread 71/29 bets, 69/31 money to the Rams; total 69/31 bets to the Over but 36/64 money to the UNDER. Tracker: opened +2.5, now +2.5 (home line) — Broncos +2.5 everywhere (platform −108; +2 at one Nevada book for the Rams) · Rams −2.5 +106 on the platform; total opened 45.5, now 44. Three rating systems (home line): +0.4 / +2.2 / +0.0 vs the market +2.5; projected totals 43.8 / 45.0 vs 44.5. Systems and trends (the Week-3 report): SNF home dogs 29-19-2 ATS; hosts off a win 25-19 ATS; dogs covered the last seven in the series → ON Denver; AFC-NFC SNF hosts 22-31-2 ATS; DEN 2-9 ATS SNF skid, 11-22-2 ATS primetime → FADE Denver; LAR 18-7 ATS short rest → ON LA Rams; best defenses vs worse defenses on SNF 21-28 ATS → FADE LA Rams; Road favorites + 44+ total → UNDER 27-9 (Trap #9); AFC-NFC SNF UNDER 32-15; DEN 111-75 UNDER; LAR 8-2 UNDER SNF; Effective Strength UNDER −1.7 → PLAY UNDER; Stafford 24-12 OVER short rest; any team ≤15 PPG → Over (Trap #10); DK splits #4 → ON LA Rams; Bettors Rating: Denver +2.5 underpriced. The network's expert room: Broncos 4, Rams 1; Under 1, Over 1.
🎯 UNDER 44.5 (−111 on the platform — the platform's 44.5 is a half-point better than the 44 at every Nevada book) — conviction 57, the card's top total. Two sharp Under layers, the platform's money, six record-backed systems and a model average on the number. Argument against: Stafford is 24-12 Over on short rest and the Rams' offense (327 passing yards last week) can score 30 alone; Kyren Williams' rushing over rides the same clock-grinding script and is the compatible leg. The side is a STAY AWAY by rule — Denver +2.5 prints as the loudest split on the board (+59 at the market-maker, the ratings and the Sunday-night systems on the Broncos; the public book's dollars, the platform's money and the primetime skid on the Rams).
The positional board — QB · WR1 · WR2 · WR3 · RB · TE, both teamsplatform panels captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET · 12 rated · 1 on the card
QBLAWATCH
Matthew Stafford
Stafford O249.5 pass yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line292.5 vs 249.5 (+43.0) · avg 305.2
Role · share51/49 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 90 · L5 80.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 70.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 243.5 → 249.5
292.5 median on 249.5 with 327 last week — and Denver is 8th against the pass (Conflicts), Nacua is Doubtful, and our Under 44.5 in this game needs the opposite. Median 292.5 against 249.5 (+43.0); over in 90% of the last ten and 70% of 2025. 51/49 pass/run. 2026: 155, 327. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 243.5 → 249.5. WR2 Nacua Doubtful.
WR1LAWATCH
Davante Adams
Adams U69.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line60 vs 69.5 (−9.5) · avg 62.7
Role · shareDavante WR 16 28.1%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 35.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (186.5 allowed) · line 68.5 → 69.5
Median 60 against 69.5 (−9.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 65% of 2025. Davante WR 16 28.1%. 2026: 26, 195. Opponent rank 8 on the stat (186.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 68.5 → 69.5. WR/CB −0.37 vs Pat Surtain. WR2 Nacua Doubtful — targets consolidate.
WR2LANO LINE POSTED
Puka Nacua
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
DOUBTFUL (hip soreness) — no line posted at capture. If he is inactive, Davante Adams' share (28% already) and Ferguson's grow; the tile board treats the Rams' receiving pie as one player short.
WR3LANO LINE POSTED
Los Angeles WR3
No line posted at capture
Projection vs line—
Role · share—
Hit windows—
Opponent · line—
With Nacua Doubtful, no third Rams receiver carried a line at capture (the WR/CB tool lists Xavier Smith and Konata Mumpfield). Nothing to rate.
RBLAPLAY
Kyren Williams
Williams O49.5 rush yds★★★★☆ 8.0−154
Projection vs line74 vs 49.5 (+24.5) · avg 69.3
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 90.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 29 (157.5 allowed) · line 55.5 → 49.5
A 74 median and 90% of 2025 over 49.5 — the largest cushion on the running-back board — with 85 last week and the line cut six from 55.5. Denver allows 157.5 rushing yards a game (29th, two games), the softest run defense on the slate. The price (−154) is the argument against, and so is Corum's share of the carries; the read is the number, and the number is right for a game we have Under 44.5, because the Rams grinding the clock is the same script.
TELAWATCH
Terrance Ferguson
Ferguson U50.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 6.0—
Projection vs line3 vs 50.5 (−47.5) · avg 16.6
Role · shareTerrance TE 10 17.5%
Hit windowsL10 20 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 13.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 8 (186.5 allowed) · line 40.5 → 50.5
Median 3 against 50.5 (−47.5); under in 80% of the last ten and 87% of 2025. Terrance TE 10 17.5%. 2026: 0, 54. Opponent rank 8 on the stat (186.5 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 40.5 → 50.5. Nacua Doubtful — targets consolidate.
QBDENWATCH
Bo Nix
Nix O211.5 pass yds★★★★☆ 7.0—
Projection vs line283.5 vs 211.5 (+72.0) · avg 250.3
Role · share59/41 pass/run
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 56.0
Opponent · lineopp rank None (None allowed) · line 222.5 → 211.5
283.5 median with 288 last week — the Rams are 7th against the pass (Conflicts) and the AI model projects 197 (UNDER); model disagreement caps at ★★★ and we sit. Median 283.5 against 211.5 (+72.0); over in 70% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. 59/41 pass/run. 2026: 131, 288. Opponent rank None on the stat (None allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 222.5 → 211.5.
WR1DENWATCH
Jaylen Waddle
Waddle U59.5 rec yds★★★☆☆ 5.5—
Projection vs line51 vs 59.5 (−8.5) · avg 54.6
Role · shareJaylen WR 13 23.2%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 44.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (168 allowed) · line 55.5 → 59.5
Median 51 against 59.5 (−8.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 56% of 2025. Jaylen WR 13 23.2%. 2026: 2, 138. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (168 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 55.5 → 59.5. WR/CB −0.05 vs Quentin Lake.
WR2DENNO PLAY
Courtland Sutton
Sutton O39.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line46.5 vs 39.5 (+7.0) · avg 47.4
Role · shareCourtland WR 9 16.1%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 20.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 68.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (168 allowed) · line 39.5 → 39.5
Median 46.5 against 39.5 (+7.0); over in 60% of the last ten and 68% of 2025. Courtland WR 9 16.1%. 2026: 11, 25. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (168 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 39.5 → 39.5. WR/CB −0.08 vs Jaylen Watson.
WR3DENNO PLAY
Pat Bryant
Bryant O24.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 5.0—
Projection vs line37 vs 24.5 (+12.5) · avg 34.8
Role · sharePat WR 7 12.5%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 47.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (168 allowed) · line 27.5 → 24.5
Median 37 against 24.5 (+12.5); over in 80% of the last ten and 47% of 2025. Pat WR 7 12.5%. 2026: 42, 0. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (168 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most — and it points the wrong way, so this is a Conflicts tile. Line 27.5 → 24.5. WR/CB −0.09 vs Trent McDuffie.
RBDENWATCH
J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins O49.5 rush yds★★★☆☆ 6.5—
Projection vs line78 vs 49.5 (+28.5) · avg 70.5
Role · shareshare not in the panel table
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60.0 (over side) · 2026 0.0 · 2025 90.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 19 (113 allowed) · line 49.5 → 49.5
78 median on 49.5, 90% of 2025 — and 36 and 36 this season with Harvey taking the other half; the 2026 sample says the split is real. Median 78 against 49.5 (+28.5); over in 70% of the last ten and 90% of 2025. share not in the panel table. 2026: 36, 36. Opponent rank 19 on the stat (113 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 49.5 → 49.5.
TEDENNO PLAY
Evan Engram
Engram U24.5 rec yds★★☆☆☆ 4.0—
Projection vs line20 vs 24.5 (−4.5) · avg 28.7
Role · shareEvan TE 6 10.7%
Hit windowsL10 40 · L5 40.0 (over side) · 2026 50.0 · 2025 50.0
Opponent · lineopp rank 3 (168 allowed) · line 23.5 → 24.5
Median 20 against 24.5 (−4.5); under in 60% of the last ten and 50% of 2025. Evan TE 6 10.7%. 2026: 43, 17. Opponent rank 3 on the stat (168 allowed) is a two-game number and scores a point at most. Line 23.5 → 24.5.
Screened and declined, on the record: Jauan Jennings O14.5 (a 90% window earned in San Francisco priced onto a 2.4% Minnesota share — the transfer mirage); Tee Higgins O49.5 (the panel's best receiving read, declined on a nine-yard line cut with no injury tag — the market knows something); Stafford O249.5 and Nix O211.5 (Conflicts — 8th and 7th pass defenses, and the AI model has Nix UNDER); Mahomes O249.5 (line raised 21 — spent); Trevor Lawrence O224.5 (NE 5th — Conflicts); Daniel Jones O199.5 and Parker Washington O59.5 (−166 — the number is right, the price is not); Hubbard U69.5, Judkins U59.5, Montgomery U49.5, Jeanty U69.5, Egbuka U49.5, McConkey U59.5, Boutte U37.5, Hutchinson U39.5 (every one a wrong-way opponent rank — Conflicts, declined by name); Evans U55.5, Flowers O71.5, Coker O59.5, Pittman, Warren, Bowers, DJ Moore (Questionable tags — capped or void risks, rated not bet); Mariota O170.5 (model disagreement); Kenneth Walker O83.5 and every short-sample tile (the continuity gate); Michael Wilson O49.5 and McLaurin O49.5 (Conflicts at plus money).
The ledger
Sides (5): Browns +2.5 (57), Colts +1.5 (56), Dolphins +10.5 (55), Buccaneers +1.5 (55), Cardinals +8.5 (54). Totals (2): LAR–DEN Under 44.5 (57), KC–MIA Under 45.5 (54). Props (11): Brissett O224.5, J. Johnson O35.5, Stevenson O39.5 (+114), K. Williams O49.5 (−154), Henry O89.5, C. Brown O63.5, Achane O59.5, Kupp O21.5, Lamar U239.5, Gibbs U89.5, W. Robinson O31.5. Printed, not published: Titans +2.5 (52, spent), Patriots +3 (books disagree), Steelers +3.5 (53, no sharp layer), Chargers +7.5 (52), Saints −3 (52), Broncos +2.5 (books disagree), Lions −6.5 (models vs money), Over 41.5 in Cleveland (52), Over 45.5 in Jacksonville (52), Over 48.5 in Detroit (52), Under 53.5 in Dallas (books disagree). The top side is named by the second-opinion argument (Cleveland: every layer), not by any score; the Prop Score prints as the audit trail on every tile and does not size a leg — the Sep 22 promotion stands.
Sourcing: our data platform (games board, Match Details on all 14 games, the 13-market Props board swept in full, 221 Market Details panels; captured Sat Sep 26, 2:38–3:19 PM ET); a Las Vegas betting network's money splits from the public book and the Vegas market-making book, eight-book Nevada tracker with openers, three power-rating systems, the Week-3 analytics report (Wednesday lists), the expert room (186 picks), the WR/CB matchup tool, the network's AI quarterback projections; Open-Meteo at the outdoor kickoffs; ESPN's injury page. Every capture stamp is the browser clock at the read. Kickoffs are ET. Prices are the platform's at capture.