WNBA · Finale Card Thu Sep 24 · 6:10 PM ET · Yesterday

WNBA Finale Night: The Books Posted No Lynx Starters, So We Bet the Fever, the One Star Who Has to Play, and the Glass Against the Worst Rebounding Team in the League

Five games on the last day of the regular season and a prop board so thin the absence is the handicap: 333 main lines, 27 players, and not one Minnesota starter posted — the market's way of saying what Reeve said Tuesday. Fever −4.5 at 56 on the rest read and the market-maker's dollars. Wilson's fantasy line on the only favorite that cannot rest its star (the Aces need a win for the No. 2 seed). Iriafen on the glass against a Sky team that is last in rebounding and dressing six players short — capped for her foul rate. Five WATCH tiles, two unpriced OPEN leans, and four sides and five totals that stay away with the reasons printed.

Published Thu Sep 24 · 5 games · platform props board (333 main-line rows, 27 players) · 12 panels · injury wire all five games · two-book splits with tags, three ratings with rest days · rest check on every team · card format v3
PlayerPickOdds ImpliedBlendedGapMatchup Prop ScoreResult
1
Fever
IND @ MIN
Fever −4.5 -104 51.0% — — Confirms — MISS
2
A. Wilson
LV @ PHX
Over 46.55 Fantasy Score (UD) -115 53.5% — — Confirms ★★★★☆8.0 HIT
3
K. Iriafen
CHI @ WAS
Over 9.5 Rebounds -101 50.2% — — Confirms ★★★☆☆6.0 HIT

WNBA finale night: five games, four of them with something to play for, and a prop board so thin the absence is the handicap

The last day of the regular season. The eight playoff teams have been known for weeks; what is live tonight is the No. 2 seed (Golden State clinches with a win or an Aces loss; Las Vegas needs a win and a Valkyries loss), the No. 5 seed (Indiana with a win or a Mystics loss; Washington with a win and a Fever loss), and nothing at all for Minnesota (No. 1 locked), Toronto, Connecticut, Chicago, Los Angeles and Phoenix. The books read the room before we did: 333 main-line props on five games, 27 players, and not one Minnesota starter on the board. The card is one side built on the rest that the coach all but announced, one prop on the only favorite that cannot afford to rest its star, one glass mismatch capped for foul trouble, and a long list of declines with the reasons printed. Every screened row is on the WNBA Insights Board.

Game-state groups on this card (Lesson 10): Fever-control-with-a-Lynx-bench → IND −4.5 (one leg; Clark and Boston tiles sit on WATCH in the same script); Aces-play-their-starters → Wilson FS (one leg); Mystics-need-it → Iriafen reb (one leg). No group larger than one.

TOR at CON

Tempo @ Sun — finale

Thu 7:00 PM ET · Uncasville · indoors
Venue
Uncasville · indoors
Rest · stakes
Both 1 day · nothing at stake for either
Line
CON −2.5 (−104) / TOR +2.5 (+102) on our data platform · −2.5 public book, −2 market-maker · three published rating systems: CON −2.0 / −1.5 / −2.3
Total
168.5 (O −110 / U +111) · 169.5 both books · ratings' projected totals 169.1 / 171.7
⚡ THE JUICE. Two teams playing out the string — Toronto (11-32) without Fágbénlé, Conde and Mabrey; Connecticut (10-33) without Griner, Nelson-Ododa, Rivers and Burke. Neither has a center dressed that matters, which is why the one thing on this game worth a read is Harrison's rebounds — and the board would not price it at capture. The number is a field goal and the ratings say a field goal.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:57 PM): Connecticut 88% of the money on 56% of tickets (+32, SHARP-shaped on the favorite); total Over 45% money / 57% tickets. The market-maker (−2): Toronto 84% of the dollars on 67% of tickets, total 100% Over at 169.5 (thin). The two books have their money on opposite sides — the stay-away rule. Ratings: CON by 1.5 to 2.3 against a 2.5 — inside the number by a hair; totals 169.1 and 171.7 against 168.5 (the Bettors' Rating three over).
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: STAY AWAY on both. Sharp dollars on opposite sides at the two books, ratings on the number, and two rosters that could rest anyone at any time. The only lean is Harrison over 6.5 rebounds and it is OPEN until a book prices it.
The board — the early window, mostly unpricedplatform panels captured Thu Sep 24, 6:00–6:03 PM ET
F-CTORNO LINE POSTED
Isabelle Harrison
Rebounds 6.5 — no price at capture
Projection vs lineavg n/a vs 6.5 — no panel opened on an unpriced row
Minutes · usage26 min · the only Toronto center again (Fágbénlé OUT)
Hit windowsL10 100 · L5 100 · 2026 58
Opponent · roleCON 9th vs rebounds · no Connecticut center dressed (Griner, Nelson-Ododa OUT)
The Tuesday leg that cashed (13 boards) is back against a Sun front line with no center — and the board would not put a price on it at capture. OPEN lean, not a leg: if a book posts 6.5 at a real price before tip, it is the rebound read of the early window.
OPEN — unpricedCON no centersTips 7:00
GCONNO PLAY
Leila Lacan
Lacan U12.5 pts−122
Projection vs line2026 69% under · L10 80
Minutes · usagestarter on a 10-33 team in its finale
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 60 · H2H 0 · 2025 68
Opponent · roleTOR 15th vs points — the wrong way for an under (opp 0, Conflicts)
Eight of ten under, but the opponent is the worst points defense in the league and the head-to-head window is 0-for. The rank is scored from its direction, so this is a Conflicts leg by rule, and it is not the one Conflicts leg we would add.
Conflicts — TOR 15thH2H 0%
CHI at WAS

Sky @ Mystics — finale

Thu 7:30 PM ET · Washington, DC · indoors
Venue
Washington, DC · indoors
Rest · stakes
Both 1 day · WAS plays for the No. 5 seed; CHI plays for nothing
Line
WAS −13.5 (−100) / CHI +13.5 (−102) on the platform · −13.5 public book, −13 market-maker · ratings: WAS −12.2 / −13.4 / −11.5 — all three inside the number
Total
168.5 (O −102 / U −102) · 168.5 public book, 169 market-maker · ratings' projected totals 168.5 / 167.8 — on the number
⚡ THE JUICE. Washington (27-16) still has a seed to win — a victory plus a Fever loss gets them No. 5 and a first-round series against Atlanta instead of Las Vegas — so the starters play. Chicago (16-27) is out, and its wire is a casualty list: Cloud, Carrington, Coulibaly and Stevens all OUT tonight on top of Diggins, Jackson, Sykes, Mabrey and Morrow for the season. The Sky are 15th of 15 in rebounds allowed, and Harrison took 13 off them Tuesday. That is the Iriafen read; the foul rate is the Iriafen problem.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:57 PM): Washington −13.5 at 87% of the money on 52% of tickets (+35, SHARP on the favorite); total Over 97% money / 60% tickets (+37); moneyline Washington 61% money / 90% tickets. The market-maker (−13): 50/50 on the spread, 50/50 on the total — no read. Ratings: Washington by 11.5 to 13.4 — every one inside the 13.5, by 0.1 to 2.0; totals flat. Money says lay it, three models say the number is a touch high, and the market-maker abstains.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: STAY AWAY on the side and the total. The public book's sharp money is on Washington and three ratings lean Chicago by less than a possession — a money-versus-model split with no market-maker tiebreaker, and Lesson 6 says the money is a tiebreaker, not a thesis. The play is Iriafen on the glass, capped, and Taylor's under stays on WATCH because her minutes are rising on a roster with nobody left.
The board — the glass against the worst rebounding defense, and the Sky's replacementsplatform panels captured Thu Sep 24, 6:00–6:03 PM ET
FWASPLAY
Kiki Iriafen
Iriafen O9.5 reb★★★☆☆ 6.0−101
Projection vs linemedian 10.5 · avg 10.6 vs 9.5
Minutes · usage27.9 min · 3.5 off + 7.1 def · 3.8 fouls/game
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · L20 60 · H2H 67 · 2026 57 · 2025 43
Opponent · roleCHI 15th of 15 vs rebounds (Harrison took 13 off them Tuesday) · starter on a −13.5 favorite that needs the win
Eight of ten over, a 10.5 median against a 9.5 at even money, and the worst rebounding defense in the league on the other side with Cloud, Carrington, Coulibaly and Stevens all out for Chicago. Washington plays for the No. 5 seed, so the starters play. Capped at 6.0: she fouls at a 4.9-per-36 rate and fouled out of her minutes Tuesday (5 in 18).
CHI 15th vs rebMedian 10.5Foul rate — capped 6.0−13.5 fourth quarter
GCHIWATCH
Sydney Taylor
Taylor U17.5 P+A★★★★☆ 8.0−125
Projection vs linemedian 14.5 · avg 14.6 vs 17.5
Minutes · usage20.6 min · 12.1 FGA (35%) · 6.6 3PA — but 20.3 → 22.9 → 24.5 minutes the last three
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · L20 65 · H2H 100 · 2026 64
Opponent · roleWAS 2nd vs points + assists · bench gunner on a gutted roster
Three points of cushion on a combo line into the 2nd-ranked defense — the screen loves it. The reason it is a WATCH and not a leg: Chicago dresses without Cloud, Carrington, Coulibaly and Stevens in a dead finale, her minutes have climbed three straight games, and a 13.5-point blowout hands the bench the fourth quarter. An under on a bench scorer whose minutes are rising is the wrong side of the minutes trend.
Cushion 3.0WAS 2nd vs P+AMinutes risingGutted roster = more shots
GCHIWATCH
Courtney Vandersloot
Vandersloot U6.5 ast★★★☆☆ 6.0−140
Projection vs linemedian 6 · avg 6.2 vs 6.5
Minutes · usage24.7 min · 6 and 9 assists the last two
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · L20 80 · H2H 100 · 2026 77 · 2025 57
Opponent · roleWAS 4th vs assists (19.7 allowed)
A season-long 77% under and the 4th-ranked assist defense, but the cushion is half an assist at −140 and she just posted a nine. Rated, not bet.
2026 77% underCushion 0.5 at −140
GWASNO PLAY
Georgia Amoore
Amoore U4.5 ast−218
Projection vs linemedian 3 · avg 3.3 vs 4.5
Minutes · usage24 min bench
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · 2026 70
Opponent · roleCHI 8th vs assists
The read is fine — a 3.3 average against a 4.5 — and the price is not: −218 on the platform (it was −159 on the board an hour earlier). Break-even at −218 is 68.6%; her own season window is 70%. No edge left in the price.
Price −218Median 3
CCHINO PLAY
Kamilla Cardoso
Every Cardoso over priced −650 to −3333
Projection vs line—
Minutes · usage26 min · the one Sky big
Hit windowsL10 70–90 on the combo rows
Opponent · roleWAS 1st–2nd vs her stats — wrong way on every over
The board has her at −650 (R+A 7.5) and −3333 (P+R 14.5): no price, and the opponent is the top-two defense on every row. Declined by rule and by price.
No priceWAS 1st/2nd
IND at MIN

Fever @ Lynx — finale

Thu 8:00 PM ET · Minneapolis · indoors
Venue
Minneapolis · indoors
Rest · stakes
Both 1 day · IND plays for the No. 5 seed; MIN is locked at No. 1 and rested four starters Tuesday
Line
IND −4.5 (−104) / MIN +4.5 (+103) on the platform · −4.5 public book, −5 market-maker · ratings at full strength: MIN −1.1 / IND −2.1 / MIN −0.7
Total
183.5 (O −100 / U −104) · 182.5 public book, 183 market-maker · ratings' projected totals 181.2 / 184.8
⚡ THE JUICE. Tuesday in Indianapolis the Lynx trailed 57-34 at the half and Reeve sat Collier, McBride, Williams and Howard for the entire second half: "rest was a better option, with playoffs starting on Sunday… I'm old enough to know that chasing wins is a really bad idea." Minnesota then clinched the No. 1 seed anyway when Golden State lost. Tonight the Lynx have nothing to play for and a coach who said so on the record; Miles and Kosu are OUT; and the books posted zero Minnesota starter props. Indiana (28-15) is playing for the No. 5 seed — Clark is probable (back) — and put 96 on the Lynx bench two nights ago. The number is 4.5 at the public book and 5 at the market-maker for a game the healthy ratings make a pick'em; the gap between the two is the rest.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:57 PM): Indiana −4.5 at 62% of the money on 65% of tickets (public and money aligned, no gap); moneyline Indiana 95% money / 73% tickets; total Over 87% money / 64% tickets (+23). The market-maker (−5): Indiana 94% of the dollars on 60% of tickets (+34, SHARP); moneyline 99% money; total 100% Under at 183 (thin). Ratings: at full strength the three systems project Minnesota −1.1, Indiana −2.1 and Minnesota −0.7 — all inside the number, two of three with the market dog as the favorite (the ANGLE shape). They are rating a Lynx team that is not dressing as rated. Expert room: nothing new on this game since the Sep 18 props.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: FEVER −4.5 (−104 on the platform) — conviction 56. The sharp dollars at the market-maker are on Indiana by 34 points, the public book agrees without a gap, the coach on the other bench announced the rest plan on the record, and the two Lynx guards who would play are out. The argument against, in full: all three ratings have this a pick'em and two of them favor Minnesota — that is the number if Reeve changes her mind and plays the starters 30 minutes; Clark is probable, not certain; and the market-maker is a half-point worse than the platform (take the 4.5, not the 5). This is a rest read priced by the books at roughly five points; we think a Lynx bench that allowed 96 is worth more than that. Total: STAY AWAY — public Over money against a thin market-maker Under and split model totals (181.2 / 184.8).
The board — the Fever into a Lynx bench, and the Lynx who have no lineplatform panels captured Thu Sep 24, 6:00–6:03 PM ET
GINDWATCH
Caitlin Clark
Clark O8.5 ast★★☆☆☆ 5.0−115
Projection vs linemedian 9 · avg 9.2 vs 8.5
Minutes · usage34.4 min · probable (back) · 9 assists Tuesday vs this team
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · L20 65 · H2H 100 · 2026 54 · 2025 69
Opponent · roleMIN 7th vs assists — at full strength; the Lynx are resting
Half an assist of cushion, and the line has already been chased: it opened 9.5 at 6:23 AM, dropped to 7.5, and settled at 8.5 by 1:37 PM — the market moved a full assist toward the over before we got here (market 0). If Minnesota sits its starters and this is a 20-point Fever lead, the fourth quarter is hers to sit too. WATCH.
H2H 100Line moved toward us — spentBlowout exit risk
C-FINDWATCH
Aliyah Boston
Boston O14.5 pts★★☆☆☆ 5.0−115
Projection vs linemedian 16 · avg 15.1 vs 14.5
Minutes · usage28 min · 11.5 FGA at 51% · 17 vs MIN Tuesday
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 · H2H 50 · 2026 62 · 2025 43
Opponent · roleMIN 3rd vs points — wrong way at full strength (opp 0, Conflicts) · the Lynx bench is not that defense
The rank says Conflicts and the rank is the healthy Lynx; tonight's Lynx are a bench unit that gave up 96 on Tuesday. That is exactly the argument that talks a card into a Conflicts leg, and the windows (60/40) do not earn it. Rated, printed, not bet.
Conflicts by ruleL5 40%MIN resting
GINDNO PLAY
Kelsey Mitchell
Mitchell O2.5 3PM−196
Projection vs linemedian 3.5 · avg 3.6 vs 2.5
Minutes · usage32.5 min · 7.6 3PA at 47% · 16 straight road games with 2+
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · L20 80 · 2026 65 · 2025 47
Opponent · roleMIN 12th vs threes
Everything about the read says over and the price says no: −196 to −200 is a 66% break-even on a window that hits 65–70%. The line was 1.5 at 12:17 PM and 2.5 by 12:23 — the books moved it a full make. Declined on price.
Price −196Median 3.5
FMINNO LINE POSTED
Napheesa Collier
No Minnesota starter has a prop on the board
Projection vs line—
Minutes · usageReeve sat Collier, McBride, Williams and Howard the entire second half Tuesday; the No. 1 seed is clinched
Hit windows—
Opponent · role—
The books did not post a single Lynx starter — Collier, McBride, Williams, Howard, none of them. That is the market saying what the coach said Tuesday: rest is the plan. No line, no leg, and the absence is the read for the side.
No line postedRest confirmed by the board
GS at LA

Valkyries @ Sparks — finale

Thu 10:00 PM ET · Los Angeles · indoors
Venue
Los Angeles · indoors
Rest · stakes
Both 1 day · GS clinches No. 2 with a win; LA plays for nothing
Line
GS −11.5 (+114) / LA +11.5 (−113) on the platform · −10.5 both books read · ratings: GS −10.9 / −7.5 / −10.7
Total
158.5 (O / U) · 158.5 both books · ratings' projected totals 157.5 / 158.3 — flat
⚡ THE JUICE. Golden State (31-12) is the No. 1 defense in the league and needs a win to lock the No. 2 seed — or an Aces loss in the late window does it for them. Los Angeles (16-27) is done, with Brink and Nye out and Hamby probable. The platform is a full point past the books at 11.5 on a game the ratings make 7.5 to 10.9, which is the one place tonight a dog number has paper value.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:57 PM): Golden State −10.5 at 70% of the money on 53% of tickets (+17, SHARP on the favorite); total Over 84% money / 69% tickets. The market-maker (−10.5): Los Angeles 100% of dollars and tickets — a handful of tickets, directional; total 100% Over. Ratings: Golden State by 7.5 to 10.9 — all inside the 10.5/11.5, the Effective Strength by four; totals flat. Money on the favorite at the public book, money on the dog at the market-maker, models on the dog by a point to four.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: STAY AWAY. Books on opposite sides, and the model edge on the dog is real but the dog is a dead team whose coach can empty the bench at any minute of its finale — the ratings do not know that either. Sparks +11.5 on the platform is printed as the number we would want if this were a live team (52), not published. Total: nothing.
The board — screened to nothing against the No. 1 defenseplatform panels captured Thu Sep 24, 6:00–6:03 PM ET
FGSNO PLAY
Gabby Williams
G. Williams O2.5 ast−105
Projection vs linemedian 3 · avg 2.6 vs 2.5
Minutes · usage25.2 min · 40.7 min Tuesday (overtime)
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · L20 40 · H2H 50 · 2026 42 · 2025 68
Opponent · roleLA 13th vs assists (22.4 allowed)
Seven of ten over but a 42% season window and an average that sits on the line. Half an assist of nothing. No.
2026 42%Avg 2.6 vs 2.5
FLANO PLAY
Nneka Ogwumike
Board prices her unders only (U19.5 pts −139, U27.5 P+R −119)
Projection vs line—
Minutes · usagestarter · Hamby probable, Brink and Nye OUT
Hit windowsL10 60 under
Opponent · roleGS 1st vs points
The Valkyries are the No. 1 defense and the board knows it: every Ogwumike row is an under at a coin-flip window. Printed, not bet.
GS 1st vs pointsL10 60%
LV at PHX

Aces @ Mercury — finale

Thu 10:00 PM ET · Phoenix · indoors
Venue
Phoenix · indoors
Rest · stakes
LV 1 day · PHX 2 days · LV plays for the No. 2 seed; PHX plays for nothing
Line
LV −9.5 (−110) / PHX +9.5 on the platform · −9.5 public book, −9 market-maker · ratings: LV −8.3 / −9.9 / −8.6
Total
174.5 · 174.5 public book, 174 market-maker · ratings' projected totals 175.9 / 176.5 (+1.5 to +2)
⚡ THE JUICE. Las Vegas (30-13) is the one favorite on the board that cannot rest: a win plus a Valkyries loss is the No. 2 seed, a loss locks No. 3. So the Aces' stars play. Phoenix (16-27) is finished, Plum is out for the season, and the Mercury are 12th in defensive shot quality. That is the whole case for Wilson's fantasy line: minutes she must play, into a defense that lets her shoot, with five points of median cushion. Young's points are the leg we lost Tuesday, and her head-to-head window against Phoenix is 18% — WATCH.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:57 PM): Las Vegas −9.5 at 75% of the money on 70% of tickets (aligned, no gap); total Over 78% money / 62% tickets; moneyline 94% money Las Vegas. The market-maker (−9): Phoenix 99% of the dollars on 50% of tickets on the spread — but 100% of the money on the Aces moneyline; total 100% Under at 174 (thin). The platform's own splits (6:03 PM): spread 73% of bets / 83% of money Las Vegas; total 75% of bets and 93% of money UNDER. Ratings: two of three inside the number on Phoenix (+8.3, +8.6), one outside on Las Vegas (−9.9); totals 175.9 and 176.5 against 174.5 — both over. The Over has two models and the public book; the Under has the market-maker and the platform's money. Split.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: STAY AWAY on the side (books on opposite sides of the spread) and the total (models and public Over vs market-maker and platform money Under). The card here is Wilson's fantasy line — the one star on the slate whose team has to play her — and Thomas over 7.5 rebounds is OPEN if a book puts a price on a line it flipped five times today.
The board — the star who has to play, and the two lines nobody would priceplatform panels captured Thu Sep 24, 6:00–6:03 PM ET
CLVPLAY
A'ja Wilson
Wilson O46.55 FS (UD)★★★★☆ 8.0−115
Projection vs linemedian 51.9 · avg 47.5 vs 46.55
Minutes · usage31.7 min · 15.7 FGA at 54% · 8.5 FTA at 89% · 8.3 reb · 9 of 11 over on the road
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · L20 70 · H2H 80 · 2026 63 · 2025 69
Opponent · rolePHX 12th in defensive eFG · a Mercury team with nothing to play for (Plum out for the season)
Five points of median cushion on a fantasy line, seven of ten and nine of eleven on the road, against a Mercury defense ranked 12th on shot quality — and Las Vegas is the one favorite tonight that cannot rest: it needs a win and a Golden State loss for the No. 2 seed, so Wilson plays her minutes. Argument against: a −9.5 spread on a dead opponent can end her night early (script 0.5, not 0), and the fantasy line already sits on her average.
Median 51.9 vs 46.55Aces must win — no rest−9.5 exit risk
GLVWATCH
Jackie Young
Young O20.5 pts★★★★☆ 7.0−119
Projection vs linemedian 23.5 · avg 22.9 vs 20.5
Minutes · usage31.7 min · 15.8 FGA at 51% · 8.2 3PA at 39%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · L20 75 · H2H 18 · 2026 49 · 2025 27
Opponent · rolePHX 8th vs points · 14 on 6-of-16 Tuesday — the leg that missed
Eight of ten over and a three-point median cushion, and an 18% head-to-head window against this exact team over two seasons. The line opened 19.5 this morning and is 20.5 now — a point ran against us. We lost this leg Tuesday on 1-of-8 from three; we are not chasing it into her worst matchup.
H2H 18%Line 19.5 → 20.5Median 23.5
FPHXNO LINE POSTED
Alyssa Thomas
Rebounds 7.5 — no price at capture (line flipped 7.5 ↔ 9.5 five times today)
Projection vs linemedian 10 · avg 9.5 vs 7.5
Minutes · usage30.9 min · 1.9 off + 7.6 def
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · L20 65 · H2H 36 · 2025 70
Opponent · roleLV 7th vs rebounds
Ten rebounds a night against a 7.5 would be the best cushion on the board — and the board could not decide whether the line was 7.5 or 9.5 (five flips between 9:51 AM and 2:03 PM) and posted no price on the 7.5 at capture. OPEN lean at 7.5 if a book prices it; not a leg without a price.
OPEN — unpricedLine unstableDead-team finale
G-FPHXNO PLAY
Kahleah Copper
Copper U19.5 pts−104
Projection vs linemedian 19 · avg 23.6 vs 19.5
Minutes · usage33.9 min · 16.9 FGA · 31 points Monday
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 40 · 2026 49 · 2025 72
Opponent · roleLV 6th vs points
Her median is 19 and her average is 23.6 — the last three at home were 38, 19 and 35. A dead team's leading scorer in her finale is a shot-volume bet, not an under. No.
Avg 23.6L5 40%

Screened and declined, on the record: Lacan U12.5 pts (−122; Conflicts — TOR 15th vs points, H2H 0%); Amoore U4.5 ast (−218; the read is right and the price ate it); Mitchell O2.5 3PM (−196; a 66% break-even on a 65–70% window, line moved a full make at noon); Cardoso every over (−650 to −3333; no price, WAS top-two on every row); G. Williams O2.5 ast (−105; 42% season window on a line that sits on her average); Ogwumike unders (coin-flip windows into the No. 1 defense — printed, not bet); Copper U19.5 pts (−104; a 23.6 average and 38/19/35 at home); Young O20.5 pts (−119; H2H 18%, line ran a point against us, the Tuesday miss); Clark O8.5 ast (−115; half an assist of cushion after the market chased it from 9.5); Boston O14.5 pts (−115; Conflicts by rule at full strength, L5 40%); Taylor U17.5 P+A (−125; rising minutes on a gutted roster); Vandersloot U6.5 ast (−140; cushion 0.5). Unpriced at capture, OPEN if priced before tip: Harrison O6.5 reb (TOR @ CON), Thomas O7.5 reb (LV @ PHX). Every Boston, Cardoso, Citron, Gray, Wilson and Thomas combo row priced −1000 or heavier was declined unread.

The ledger

Team lean: Fever −4.5 (−104; 56). Printed, not published: Sparks +11.5 on the platform (52 — a dead team's number). Props (two): Wilson O46.55 FS (UD) (−115), Iriafen O9.5 reb (−101, capped 6.0 for foul rate). WATCH: Taylor U17.5 P+A, Vandersloot U6.5 ast, Clark O8.5 ast, Boston O14.5 pts, Young O20.5 pts. OPEN (unpriced): Harrison O6.5 reb, Thomas O7.5 reb. Price note: every price is our data platform's board at 5:56–6:03 PM ET; a published leg grades at its first-published price. Rest check, printed (the Sep 23 ledger's playoff-rest candidate, applied): Minnesota — locked, coach on record, no starter props posted → no Lynx leg and the side is built on it; Las Vegas — must win, Wilson plays; Washington — must win, Iriafen plays; Indiana — must win, Clark probable; Golden State — must win, no leg; Toronto, Connecticut, Chicago, Los Angeles, Phoenix — dead, no over on any of their starters published. Stars print, do not size (Sep 22 promotion). Sources: our data platform (games board 5:56 PM, props board 5:58–6:02 PM, 12 panels 6:00–6:03 PM), a Las Vegas betting network's two-book splits (5:57 PM) and daily ratings (6:05 PM), the league injury wire (6:07 PM), and the rest reporting cited on the WNBA Insights Board.

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What changed on this card

1 update · newest first
Thu Sep 24 · 6:10 PM ET First publish — WNBA finale card (v3 tile grid, five games). Our data platform: games board 5:56 PM ET, Props board 5:58–6:02 PM (333 main-line rows, 27 players; no Minnesota starter posted), 12 Market Details panels 6:00–6:03 PM (platform public betting captured on LV @ PHX); a Las Vegas betting network's two-book splits 5:57 PM and daily ratings with rest days 6:05 PM; league injury wire 6:07 PM; rest reporting (standings 12:41 PM, the Lynx coach's Sep 23 remarks). One team lean, two props, fifteen tiles, two OPEN unpriced leans. Stars print but do not size (Sep 22 promotion); the Sep 23 ledger's foul-rate cap and playoff-rest check applied in print. Toronto @ Connecticut tips 7:00 PM ET — no leg on it.

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