WNBA Tuesday: five games, three blowout numbers, and a prop board that hydrated with seventy minutes to spare — the overs are on the players whose minutes survive the spread
Five games, all indoors, three of them priced as routs (Washington −17.5, Las Vegas −16.5, Golden State −14.5) and two as coin flips. That shape decides the card: on a 17-point spread the favorite's starters lose the fourth quarter, so the overs we want are on the dog's starters and the favorite's bench, and the favorite's stars have to bank the number early. Five props published across four games, one team lean on the platform's best number, seventeen tiles rated, and the Portland game screened to nothing — the two soft-looking lines there run into the best defense in the league. Every screened row is on the WNBA Insights Board.
Game-state groups on this card (Lesson 10): Washington-runs-away → Iriafen reb (needs it early) + Amoore PRA (wants it) — two legs, one script, opposite sensitivities; Lynx-Fever-shootout → Howard pts (one leg); Toronto-without-a-center → Harrison reb (one leg); Aces-run-away → Young pts (needs it early) vs Sparks-stay-close → Burrell pts + LA +17.5 (two legs, one script). No group larger than two.
Sun @ Mystics — Tuesday
Tue 7:30 PM ET · Washington, DC · indoorsVenue
Washington, DC · indoors
Rest
Both teams 1 day
Line
WAS −17.5 (+101) / CON +17.5 (−102) on our data platform · −17.5 at both books read · three published rating systems: WAS −15.8 / −16.0 / −14.9
Total
160.5 (O −113 / U +109) · 159.5 at the market-maker · ratings' projected totals 159.9 / 158.7
⚡ THE JUICE. Connecticut (10-32) arrives with four rotation players out — Brittney Griner and Olivia Nelson-Ododa, both centers, plus Saniya Rivers and Kennedy Burke — which means the Sun are rebounding with forwards and wings against Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin. Washington (26-16) is 2nd in points allowed and 1st in rebounds allowed, so the Sun's replacement scorers walk into the toughest defense on the board. The number is 17.5 and it is earned; the card's job is to find the Mystics whose production survives a 25-point fourth quarter.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:45 PM): Washington −17.5 at 59% of the money on 59% of tickets — flat, no lean; the moneyline is 85% of tickets but 61% of the money on Washington (the tickets are on the chalk, the dollars less so); the total is Over 88% of the money on 67% of tickets (+21, SHARP-shaped). The market-maker: Washington 99% of the dollars on 80% of tickets (+19, SHARP), total Over 100/100 at 159.5 (a handful of tickets). Three rating systems: Washington by 14.9 to 16.0 — all three under the 17.5, one and a half to two and a half points of dog value on paper; projected totals 158.7–159.9, a point under the market. The platform's own splits (5:42 PM): spread 59/59 Washington by tickets and money, Over 67% of tickets / 88% of money. Expert room: no picks. The money is on the favorite at both books; the models are on the dog by less than the number. That is a split, and a split is a stay-away.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: STAY AWAY on the side and the total. The ratings say the dog is short by two; the sharp dollars at the market-maker say lay it. Neither layer is alone enough and they disagree. The Over has the money at both books and the models a point under — same shape. The card is the two Mystics whose minutes go up, not down, when this gets ugly: Iriafen early, Amoore late.
The board — the Mystics who beat the spread's minutes problem, and the Sun's replacementsplatform panels captured Tue Sep 22, 5:36–5:40 PM ET
FWASPLAY
Kiki Iriafen
Iriafen O9.5 reb★★★★☆ 7.0−128
Projection vs line10.5 med · 10.8 avg vs 9.5 (+1)
Minutes · usage28.7 min · 3.6 off + 7.2 def boards · 3.8 fouls
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100 · L20 60 · H2H 83 · 2026 59 · 2025 43
Opponent · roleCON 10th in rebounds allowed (33.9) · starter · CON has NO centers tonight (Griner, Nelson-Ododa OUT)
Five straight over and eight of ten, a 10.5 median against 9.5 — and the team across from her has no center dressed: Griner and Nelson-Ododa are both out, Burke and Rivers too, which leaves Connecticut rebounding with wings. Ten or more in seven of her last eight. The argument against is the spread: Washington is laying 17.5, and a starter who averages 28.7 minutes can lose the fourth quarter to the bench — that is why the script component is a half, not a one. Rebounds come early; she needs ten by the time the game is decided.
GWASPLAY
Georgia Amoore
Amoore O12.5 PRA★★★★☆ 8.0−123
Projection vs line15.5 med · 15.1 avg vs 12.5 (+3)
Minutes · usage24 min · 7.6 FGA · 5.7 3PA at 47% · rookie
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 100 · L20 65 · H2H 67 · 2026 45 · 2025 —
Opponent · roleCON 9th in points allowed (88.5) · second-unit guard whose minutes GROW in a blowout
This is the blowout-proof leg on the card. Amoore plays 24 minutes as the first guard off the bench, hits 47% of 5.7 threes a night, and has cleared 12.5 in eight of ten with a 15.5 median — three points of room on a combo line. If Washington runs Connecticut off the floor, the starters sit and Amoore's minutes go up, not down. The dissents: a 45% season window (the first two months were the rookie learning curve) and a rookie's role is scored 1.5, not 2.
CWASWATCH
Shakira Austin
Austin O29.5 PRA★★★☆☆ 6.0+105
Projection vs line30.5 med · 30.2 avg vs 29.5 (+1)
Minutes · usage28.9 min · 13.4 FGA at 54% · 6.3 FTA
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · L20 80 · H2H 0 · 2026 59 · 2025 11
Opponent · roleCON 9th vs points · starting center vs a team with no center
Plus money on a 30.5 median against 29.5 with no center to guard her sounds like the play, and the head-to-head is zero-for. She has not cleared this number against Connecticut this season, the 2025 window is one-for-nine, and a one-point cushion on a plus-money combo against a 17.5-point favorite is exactly the Monday Reese shape — usage that evaporates when the game is decided. WATCH; the Iriafen rebounds are the way to bet the mismatch.
GWASNO PLAY
Sonia Citron
Citron O24.5 PRA−128
Projection vs line28 med · 25.8 avg vs 24.5 (+1.3 on avg)
Minutes · usage32 min · 11.2 FGA · 4 3PA
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 · L20 55 · H2H 43 · 2026 55 · 2025 25
Opponent · roleCON 9th vs points · the Mystics' minutes leader
Six of ten, a 43% head-to-head and an average a point over the line — coin flips at −128. The points-plus-rebounds line (19.5, median 20) is the same story a market over. No.
GCONNO PLAY
Charlisse Leger-Walker
Leger-Walker O7.5 pts−127
Projection vs line— · 2026 window 43%
Minutes · usagestarter on a team missing four rotation players
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80 · H2H 67 · 2026 43
Opponent · roleWAS 2nd vs points · the Sun's volume goes somewhere, but into the 2nd-ranked defense
The routes-go-here tile for Connecticut: with Rivers, Burke and both centers out, somebody has to shoot, and the board's only volume line on her is 7.5 points at −127 into a top-two defense. Six of ten. The 1.5 assists line at −2000 is not a bet. Nothing here.
FCONNO PLAY
Aaliyah Edwards
Edwards O11.5 pts−142
Projection vs line2026 window 43%
Minutes · usagestarting forward, no centers behind her
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · L20 40 · H2H 0 · 2026 43 · 2025 8
Opponent · roleWAS 2nd vs points · she becomes the Sun's center by default
Her rebounds unders are the platform's favorite rows tonight (5.5 under at 80% L10) and the points over is priced at −142 for seven of ten with a zero head-to-head. Washington is 1st in rebounds allowed. No side of her is a bet.
Lynx @ Fever — Tuesday
Tue 8:00 PM ET · Indianapolis · indoorsVenue
Indianapolis · indoors
Rest
Both teams 1 day
Line
IND −1.5 (+104) / MIN +1.5 (−110) on the platform · −1.5 at the public book, pick'em at the market-maker · ratings: IND +0.3 / −0.6 / +0.3 — a pick'em three ways
Total
185.5 (O −105 / U +102) — the highest total on the board · 184.5 at the market-maker · ratings' projected totals 186.2 / 188.6
⚡ THE JUICE. The game of the night: Minnesota (32-10) at Indiana (27-15), a 185.5 total, and a pick'em everywhere that matters. Olivia Miles (MIN) is a game-time decision with a left calf — she is the Lynx's lead guard and the best points read on the whole board, and she is not a leg until she starts. Indiana is 12th in points allowed and 3rd… no — Minnesota is 3rd in points allowed, which is why the Fever stars' overs (Clark, Mitchell) screen as Conflicts even with fat medians, and why the Lynx starters' overs into the 12th-ranked Indiana defense are where the card goes. The expert room posted four props on this game five days ago: Clark O8.5 assists, Timpson O8.5 points, Howard O2.5 assists, Cunningham O6.5 points — counted, not copied.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:45 PM): Minnesota +1.5 at 64% of the money on 49% of tickets (+15, SHARP on the dog); the total is Over 70% of tickets, 62% of the money (public Over). The market-maker (pick'em): Indiana 91% of the dollars on 64% of tickets (+27, SHARP on the home side); the total is Under 66% of the money at 184.5. The two books have sharp dollars on OPPOSITE sides — that is the stay-away rule, printed. Three rating systems: pick'em (+0.3, −0.6, +0.3), projected totals 186.2 and 188.6 — both over the 185.5, the Bettors' Rating by three. Expert room: four props, no side, no total.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: STAY AWAY on the side — the books disagree on which team the sharp money likes, and the ratings are a coin flip. Over 185.5 is printed, not published (52): two of three ratings project 186–189, the public book is Over, the market-maker is Under, and a total needs more than one model layer and a split money layer to make the card. The prop is Howard, and it is Miles the minute she is confirmed.
The board — the Lynx into the 12th-ranked defense, the Fever into the 3rdplatform panels captured Tue Sep 22, 5:36–5:40 PM ET
FMINPLAY
Natasha Howard
Howard O11.5 pts★★★★☆ 7.0−134
Projection vs line13 med · 13.6 avg vs 11.5 (+1.5)
Minutes · usage28.5 min · 8.9 FGA at 64% · 3 FTA · 3.6 off boards
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 60 · L20 60 · H2H 100 · 2026 71 · 2025 47
Opponent · roleIND 12th in points allowed (90.9) · starter · Olivia Miles (MIN) GTD — her touches go inside
Sixty-four percent from the floor on nine shots a night is the cleanest efficiency on the board, the season window is 71%, and she is three-for-three over this number against Indiana. The game is a pick'em with a 185.5 total — the highest on the slate — which is the script a starter's points over wants. If Miles (calf, GTD) sits, the Lynx go to Howard and Collier inside more, not less. The price (−134) and a 60% five-game window are the two docks, and the number is a point and a half over her median, not three.
GMINWATCH
Olivia Miles
Miles O18.5 pts★★★☆☆ 6.0−115
Projection vs line20.5 med · 19.6 avg vs 18.5 (+2)
Minutes · usage31.9 min · 14.9 FGA · 4.5 FTA · GAME-TIME DECISION (left calf)
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · L20 70 · H2H 100 · 2026 60 · 2025 —
Opponent · roleIND 12th in points allowed · the Lynx's lead guard · rookie
The best points read on the whole board — eight of ten over, 20.5 median, three-for-three against Indiana, a 12th-ranked points defense and a 185 total — and she is a game-time decision with a calf. A Questionable tag is not a leg (Monday's Stafford void is the rule, applied to ourselves). If the lineup posts her as a starter, this is the play at 18.5; if she sits, Howard and Collier absorb it. Printed, not published.
GINDWATCH
Caitlin Clark
Clark O21.5 pts★★★★☆ 8.0−114
Projection vs line25.5 med · 25.6 avg vs 21.5 (+4)
Minutes · usage34.7 min · 18 FGA · 9.1 3PA at 40% · 6 FTA
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · L20 65 · H2H 0 · 2026 55 · 2025 15
Opponent · roleMIN 3rd in points allowed (83.8) — the wrong way · H2H 0-for vs Minnesota
Four points of median cushion, eight of ten over, 18 shots a night — and she has not cleared this number against Minnesota in 2026, which is the third-ranked points defense in the league. The opponent rank points the wrong way and the head-to-head confirms it, so this is a Conflicts read at 8.0 that we are not adding as the card's one Conflicts leg; the expert room's pick on her is the 8.5 assists, not the points. WATCH — a 40-piece is in range, and so is 21.
GINDNO PLAY
Kelsey Mitchell
Mitchell O25.5 pts−118
Projection vs line28.5 med · 28.1 avg vs 25.5 (+3)
Minutes · usage33 min · 18.3 FGA at 55% · 7.3 3PA
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 · L20 70 · H2H 60 · 2026 52 · 2025 23
Opponent · roleMIN 3rd vs points — wrong way
A 28.5 median is tempting and the windows are coin flips: six of ten, a 52% season, into the third-ranked defense. The line is where it should be.
FMINNO PLAY
Napheesa Collier
Collier — every over screened, none survives
Projection vs linepoints 19.5 · L10 40% over
Minutes · usagethe Lynx's star · the board is pricing her unders
Hit windowsUnder 19.5: L10 60 · Under 30.5 PRA: L10 70 · 2026 64
Opponent · roleIND 12th vs points · the rank says over, the tape says the line is high
The platform's rows on Collier are all unders — the points under (19.5) at 60% L10, the PRA under (30.5) at 70% — and this card is hunting overs. Her points line is two above her recent production. No over publishes; the unders are printed here for the record and not bet, because a 185-total pick'em is not an under script.
F-CINDNO PLAY
Aliyah Boston
Boston O26.5 PRA−123
Projection vs line26 med · 25.2 avg vs 26.5 (−0.5)
Minutes · usage27.9 min · 11.4 FGA · 8.4 reb
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 20 · L20 60 · H2H 40 · 2026 66 · 2025 51
Opponent · roleMIN 4th vs PRA — wrong way · one of her last five over
Median under the line, one of five over, and the fourth-ranked defense against her stat. Nothing.
Tempo @ Sky — Tuesday
Tue 8:00 PM ET · Chicago · indoorsVenue
Chicago · indoors
Rest
Chicago 2 days · Toronto 1 day
Line
CHI −5.5 (−100) / TOR +5.5 (+100) on the platform · −5.5 at both books · ratings: CHI −4.6 / −1.4 / −5.1
Total
180.5 (O −105 / U +102) · ratings' projected totals 179.6 / 178.8
⚡ THE JUICE. Two bad teams and one injury that matters: Toronto center Temi Fágbénlé was ruled out (personal) about four hours before tip, leaving Isabelle Harrison as the Tempo's only true big against a Chicago team that is 15th of 15 in rebounds allowed. Chicago (15-27) is without Sykes, Mabrey and Morrow for the season and is a 5.5-point favorite on a second day of rest; Toronto (11-31) has lost the rebounding battle all year and just lost its center. The Sky's Cardoso should feast on the glass too — the last five games say she has not.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:45 PM): Chicago −5.5 at 95% of the money on 68% of tickets (+27, SHARP); the moneyline 74% of money on 82% of tickets; the total is Over 96% of the money on 71% of tickets (+25). The market-maker: Chicago 100% of dollars and tickets (thin); total Over 77/83. Three rating systems: Chicago by 1.4 to 5.1 — an average of 3.7, two points short of the 5.5, projected totals 178.8–179.6, under the number. Money says lay it, the models say the dog is a field goal short; the total's money is all Over and the models are all under. Expert room: nothing.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: STAY AWAY on both. Sharp dollars on Chicago at both books against three ratings that make the number too high; Over money against three totals under the number. Both are money-versus-model splits, and Lesson 6 says the money is a tiebreaker, not a thesis. The rebounding mismatch is the bet, and it is Harrison, not the Sky.
The board — the glass without a Toronto centerplatform panels captured Tue Sep 22, 5:36–5:40 PM ET
F-CTORPLAY
Isabelle Harrison
Harrison O7.5 reb★★★☆☆ 6.0−125
Projection vs line8.5 med · 8.9 avg vs 7.5 (+1)
Minutes · usage26.4 min · 2.2 off + 6.7 def boards · Temi Fágbénlé (TOR C) OUT
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80 · L20 45 · H2H 0 · 2026 37 · 2025 0
Opponent · roleCHI 15th in rebounds allowed (36.9) — the WORST rebounding defense in the league · she is Toronto's only center with Fágbénlé out
The mismatch is the whole leg: Chicago gives up more rebounds than any team in the league (36.9, 15th of 15), and Toronto's starting center was ruled out four hours before tip for personal reasons, which makes Harrison the only true big in the rotation. Four of her last five over 7.5, ten or more in four of ten. The windows are the honest dissent — the season number is 37% because she spent June as a reserve, the head-to-head is 0-for, and 2025 is a different role on a different team (discounted to nothing). Three stars, volume read, priced at the line she should beat by a board.
GTORWATCH
Kiki Rice
Rice O4.5 ast★★☆☆☆ 5.0−118
Projection vs line5 med · 4.6 avg vs 4.5 (+0.5)
Minutes · usage29.3 min · rookie point guard
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · L20 45 · H2H 100 · 2026 35 · 2025 —
Opponent · roleCHI 8th in assists allowed · the Tempo's lead guard
Seven of ten and two-for-two against Chicago, but the average (4.6) barely clears the line and the twenty-game window is 45% — the recent run is a hot month on a rookie's season. Half an assist of cushion is a WATCH at −118.
CCHINO PLAY
Kamilla Cardoso
Cardoso O7.5 reb−140
Projection vs line8.5 med · 8.9 avg vs 7.5 (+1)
Minutes · usage26.1 min · 3.4 off boards · 3.8 fouls
Hit windowsL10 50 · L5 20 · L20 55 · H2H 50 · 2026 61 · 2025 55
Opponent · roleTOR 12th vs rebounds — and no center across from her
The matchup says yes (Toronto is 12th and has no center tonight) and the last five games say one of five over. Four, six, seven boards in three of the last four — foul trouble and minutes. At −140, no. The PRA line (24.5) has the same one-of-five problem.
GTORNO PLAY
Laura Juškaitė
Juškaitė O13.5 pts−102
Projection vs line14 med · 14.6 avg vs 13.5 (+0.5)
Minutes · usage28.5 min · 10.5 FGA at 50%
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 80 · L20 50 · H2H 0 · 2026 36 · 2025 —
Opponent · roleCHI 11th vs points
Twenty-eight and eighteen in the last two, then a 2 and a 12 behind them. Six of ten and a half-point cushion into a middling defense; even money is fair. No.
Sparks @ Aces — Tuesday
Tue 10:00 PM ET · Las Vegas · indoorsVenue
Las Vegas · indoors
Rest
Both teams 1 day
Line
LA +17.5 (−110) / LV −17.5 (+104) on the platform — the best dog number on the board · +16.5 at the public book, +17 at the market-maker · ratings: LV −15.9 / −13.6 / −15.5
Total
178.5 (O −110 / U +106) · 179 at the market-maker · ratings' projected totals 178.6 / 178.5 — on the number
⚡ THE JUICE. Las Vegas (29-13) is laying 16.5 to 17.5 against a Sparks team (16-26) missing Dearica Hamby and possibly Ariel Atkins (illness, GTD); the Aces list Akoa Makani as GTD and Nye out. The spread says the fourth quarter belongs to the benches, so the Aces' stars have to bank their numbers in three quarters and the Sparks' starters get all forty minutes. That is the whole prop logic: Young early, Burrell all night, and A'ja Wilson's line sits on her average in a game she may leave.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:45 PM): Los Angeles +16.5 at 59% of the money on 34% of tickets (+25, SHARP on the dog); the moneyline is 86% of tickets on Las Vegas with 74% of the money on the Sparks' +1000 (a lottery ticket, not a signal); the total is Under 59% of the money on 39% of tickets (+20, SHARP Under). The market-maker (+17): Sparks 47% of money on 67% of tickets, Aces 53/33 — a mild lean to the favorite on thin volume; the total 100% Over at 179 (a few tickets). Three rating systems: Las Vegas by 13.6 to 15.9 — every one of them under the 16.5, and the platform is posting 17.5. Projected totals 178.5–178.6, flat on the number. Expert room: nothing. Sharp dollars on the dog at the public book, three models with the dog by one to four points, and the platform holding a number a full point better than the market-maker.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: SPARKS +17.5 (−110 on the platform) — conviction 54. The public book's sharpest side read on the slate (+25 on a dog), three ratings all inside the number, and a 17.5 on the platform where the market-maker is 17 and the public book 16.5 — the number is the edge and the layers agree. The argument against, printed: the market-maker's (thin) dollars lean Las Vegas, the Sparks are down Hamby and maybe Atkins, and a 17-point spread means the fourth quarter is garbage time in both directions — this is a number bet at 54, not a side bet at 60. Total: STAY AWAY (Under money vs flat models).
The board — the Aces before the bench, the Sparks all nightplatform panels captured Tue Sep 22, 5:36–5:40 PM ET
G-FLAPLAY
Rae Burrell
Burrell O14.5 pts★★★☆☆ 6.0−110
Projection vs line19.5 med · 18.7 avg vs 14.5 (+5)
Minutes · usage29.3 min · 13.9 FGA · 5.4 3PA · 5.2 FTA · Hamby OUT, Atkins GTD
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · L20 65 · H2H 40 · 2026 51 · 2025 7
Opponent · roleLV 6th in points allowed (86.1) · starter on a dog that keeps its starters on the floor
Five points of room between her median and the line, eight of ten over, fourteen shots and five free throws a night — and she is on the side of the spread that plays 40 minutes. Dearica Hamby is out and Ariel Atkins is a game-time decision with an illness, which is more of the Sparks' offense running through Burrell, not less. The argument against: Las Vegas is 6th against points (a half-point on opp, not a conflict), the two-for-five head-to-head, and Atkins — if she plays, some of the shots come back. The Atkins tag caps the leg at 6.0 by rule; the read is an 8.5.
GLVPLAY
Jackie Young
Young O21.5 pts★★★★☆ 7.5−102
Projection vs line23.5 med · 23.8 avg vs 21.5 (+2)
Minutes · usage31.7 min · 15.5 FGA at 52% · 8 3PA at 43% · 4.7 FTA at 94%
Hit windowsL10 80 · L5 80 · L20 70 · H2H 29 · 2026 45 · 2025 23
Opponent · roleLA 14th in points allowed (91.7) — second-worst on the board · the Aces' second scorer
Eight of ten over, four of the last five at 23 or more, 52% from the floor and 43% from three on eight attempts, against the second-worst points defense in the league. Even money. The argument against is printed in full because it is real: the Aces are laying 16.5, and a 31-minute starter loses the fourth quarter if it goes the way the number says — that is script 0, and the reason the points line (21.5, −102) is the bet and not the points-plus-rebounds at −120. She has also cleared this number in only two of seven against the Sparks. Get to 22 by the third quarter or this loses to the bench.
FLVNO PLAY
A'ja Wilson
Wilson O25.5 pts−122
Projection vs line27 med · 24.9 avg vs 25.5 (avg −0.6)
Minutes · usage31.7 min · 15.9 FGA · 8.7 FTA at 90%
Hit windowsL10 70 · L5 80 · L20 70 · H2H 29 · 2026 56 · 2025 46
Opponent · roleLA 14th vs points · the best player on the floor, priced like it
The median clears and the average does not — 16 and 15 in two of the last four — and the Sparks have held her under this number in five of seven. A −122 price on a line that sits on her average, in a game she may leave early. The number is right.
FLANO PLAY
Nneka Ogwumike
Ogwumike O17.5 pts−115
Projection vs line2026 window 51%
Minutes · usagestarter · Hamby OUT
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 100 · L20 55 · H2H 44 · 2026 51 · 2025 47
Opponent · roleLV 6th vs points — the tougher end of the board
Five straight over is a hot week, not a read: six of ten, a 51% season, and the Aces' sixth-ranked points defense. Her rebounds over (8.5) has no book price. No.
Valkyries @ Fire — Tuesday
Tue 10:00 PM ET · Portland · indoorsVenue
Portland · indoors
Rest
Golden State 2 days · Portland 1 day
Line
GS −14.5 (−102) / POR +14.5 (−101) on the platform · −14.5 at both books · ratings: GS −11.0 / −8.3 / −12.5 — all three well inside the number
Total
158.5 (O +100 / U −104) — the lowest total on the board · 158 at the market-maker · ratings' projected totals 160.5 / 160.6
⚡ THE JUICE. Golden State (31-11) is the best defense in the league — 1st in points allowed — on two days' rest against Portland (16-27), which is why every Fire over on the board dies on the opponent rank and why the Valkyries' overs die on the spread. The three rating systems make this a 8- to 12-point game against a 14.5 market, which is the one place on the slate where the models are loudly on a dog.
💸 THE CROWD VS THE CASH. The public book (5:45 PM): Golden State −14.5 at 90% of the money on 76% of tickets (+14, SHARP on the favorite); the total is Over 65% of tickets, 58% of money. The market-maker: Portland +14.5 at 100% of dollars and tickets, Over 100/100 at 158 — both cells are a handful of tickets, directional only. Three rating systems: Golden State by 8.3 to 12.5, a 2- to 6-point edge to Portland on paper; projected totals 160.5 / 160.6, two points over the 158.5. The books disagree on the side (public-book sharp on the favorite, market-maker on the dog) — stay-away rule. The total has the models two points over and both books' money Over. Expert room: nothing.
🎯 THE FINAL VERDICT: STAY AWAY on the side (books split). Over 158.5 is printed, not published (53): two rating totals at 160.5, Over money at both books, a favorite on two days' rest — the layers agree, and the reason it is a print is that the Sep 21 ledger flagged "two money layers and a model" totals as the exact shape that has gone 17-20 on this sheet. No prop survives the screen here: the soft Portland ranks belong to Golden State's players who sit the fourth, and the Portland players who play the fourth face the No. 1 defense.
The board — screened to nothing, on the recordplatform panels captured Tue Sep 22, 5:36–5:40 PM ET
GGSNO PLAY
Veronica Burton
Burton O21.5 PRA−131
Projection vs line22.5 med · 21.1 avg vs 21.5 (avg −0.4)
Minutes · usage27.5 min · 8.7 FGA · 4.3 3PA
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 · L20 60 · H2H 67 · 2026 60 · 2025 54
Opponent · rolePOR 13th in points allowed (91.2) · the Valkyries' lead guard on a −14.5 favorite
The one Golden State line with a soft opponent rank, and the average is under the number (Lesson 8 — Tolle died on his own average). Six of ten at −131 on a favorite laying 14.5. No.
GPORNO PLAY
Carla Leite
Leite O22.5 PRA−119
Projection vs line2026 window 61%
Minutes · usagePortland's lead guard · plays the 4th of a blowout
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 60 · L20 65 · H2H 0 · 2026 61 · 2025 8
Opponent · roleGS 1st in points allowed — the best defense in the league, the wrong way
The dog's starter who stays on the floor is the right idea; the opponent is the wrong one. Golden State is first against points and Leite is 0-for against them this year. The 5.5 assists over is the same story with no book price.
FPORNO PLAY
Megan DiLeo
DiLeo O17.5 PRA−115
Projection vs line2026 window 53%
Minutes · usagestarter
Hit windowsL10 60 · L5 20 · L20 65 · H2H 17 · 2026 53 · 2025 0
Opponent · roleGS 1st vs points — wrong way
One of five, one of six against Golden State, best defense in the league. No.
FGSNO PLAY
Kayla Thornton
Thornton — the board prices her unders only
Projection vs lineunders at 80% L10 across four markets
Minutes · usagestarter · 2026 windows 45–57% on the overs
Hit windowsUnder 8.5 pts L10 80 · Under 13.5 PRA L10 80
Opponent · rolePOR 12th–13th vs her stats — the rank says over, the tape says her role shrank
Every Thornton row on the platform is an under at 80% over the last ten — the market has caught up to a reduced role. No over, and we are not chasing unders on a 158 total.
Screened and declined, on the record: Clark O25.5 P+R (−127; the same Conflicts read as the points, MIN 3rd vs P+R); Miles O23.5 P+A / O28.5 PRA / O5.5 ast (GTD — every Miles line waits on the lineup); Howard O21.5 PRA (−119; median 24 but L10 60%, the points line carries the read); Cardoso O24.5 PRA (−125; one of five); Young O25.5 P+R (−120; the points at −102 is the cleaner version of the same leg); Wilson O38.5 PRA (−119; L10 60%); Burrell O16.5 P+A / O19.5 PRA (cousins of the published points leg — not published twice); Citron O19.5 P+R (−125; L10 60%); Austin O25.5 P+R (−129; H2H 0%); Amoore O11.5 P+A (−101; the PRA line at −123 carries a point more cushion); Rice O20.5 P+A (−124; L10 50%); Burton O18.5 P+A (−107; L10 50%); Leite O14.5 pts (−106; GS 1st vs points); DiLeo O12.5 pts (+100; L5 40%); every Thornton, Collier and Boston over (the board prices their unders); every double-double and "most" market (no edge, wide prices).
The ledger
Team lean: Sparks +17.5 (−110; 54). Printed, not published: MIN–IND Over 185.5 (52), GS–POR Over 158.5 (53). Props (five): Iriafen O9.5 reb (−128), Amoore O12.5 PRA (−123), Howard O11.5 pts (−134), Harrison O7.5 reb (−125), Burrell O14.5 pts (−110, capped while Atkins is GTD), Young O21.5 pts (−102). WATCH: Miles O18.5 pts (GTD — the play if she starts), Clark O21.5 pts (Conflicts, not added), Austin O29.5 PRA (H2H 0%), Rice O4.5 ast (cushion 0.5). Price note: every price is our data platform's board at 5:33–5:41 PM ET; a published leg grades at its first-published price. Lineups post ~30 minutes before each tip; Miles and Atkins are folded into this card in place if the lineup changes a leg. Stars do not size a leg on this card — the Tuesday study session (172 graded legs) found the top tiers are the worst tiers; the components print as the audit trail, the sizing is the argument. WNBA Insights Board for every screened row.
What changed on this card
2 updates · newest first
Tue Sep 22 · 5:53 PM ET First publish — WNBA Tuesday card (v3 tile grid, five games). Our data platform: games and props boards dark 2:13–2:14 PM ET (short run reported) and 5:22–5:29 PM (skeleton rows on WNBA, MLB and NFL boards; Insights page rendered), Props board hydrated 5:30 PM — 1178/1178 rows harvested 5:33–5:35 PM (894 on tonight's slate), 25 Market Details panels 5:36–5:40 PM, games board 5:41 PM, Lineup/injury tabs for all five games 5:42–5:44 PM (platform public betting captured for CON@WAS only — the game pages froze the renderer on the second pass); a Las Vegas betting network's two-book splits 5:45 PM, daily ratings with rest days 5:45 PM, expert room 5:46 PM (one expert, four MIN@IND props posted Sep 18; no sides). One team lean, six props, seventeen tiles. Miles (MIN) GTD calf and Atkins (LA) GTD illness — folded into the card in place if the lineups change a leg. Stars print but do not size (Sep 22 promotion).
Wed Sep 23 · 2:16 PM ET Graded: 2 of 7. Sparks +17.5 HIT (89–79). Harrison O7.5 reb HIT (13). MISS: Iriafen O9.5 reb (5 in 18 foul-shortened minutes, five fouls), Amoore O12.5 PRA (8-0-3 = 11; the Mystics won by 10, not 17, so the blowout minutes never came), Howard O11.5 pts (6 in 12 minutes — Minnesota rested four starters for the entire second half of its regular-season finale with the playoffs set; a coach's decision, not an injury, and it grades a MISS), Burrell O14.5 pts (11 in 29; Atkins played, the cap stood), Young O21.5 pts (14 on 6-of-16, 1-of-8 from three, with 11 assists). No prop carries a close — our data platform was dark again; the Sparks close is the public book's.
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