One game, twenty overs. Every leg on this card is a Buccaneers or Cowboys player going over a number tonight, priced between −164 and −360 and built to be combined. The side is on the main Thursday card (a stay-away); this is the prop board, and it starts with the injury report.
Why this game is a prop game
Tampa Bay has a new quarterback and an old plan. Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb. Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie, makes his second start; in his first he completed 19 of 27 for 148 yards and ran eight times for 55. The Buccaneers are 0–4, 28th in passing and last in the league in sacks allowed (four a game). What they can do is hand off: Bucky Irving has 57% of the carries and has run for 45, 89, 46 and 61.
Dallas's defense lets them. The Cowboys are 31st against the run (150.2 yards a game), 32nd in yards allowed per play (6.4), 31st on third down and 28th in scoring defense. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and corner Cobie Durant are out. This is the worst defense Daniels could have drawn for a second start, and the best one Irving could have.
Dallas throws because Tampa Bay makes it. The Buccaneers are 3rd against the run and 9th against the pass, but they are missing safety Antoine Winfield and corner Benjamin Morrison. Dallas throws on 59% of its plays — Prescott has 34, 31, 40 and 45 attempts — scores 30.5 a game and converts 81% of its red-zone trips. CeeDee Lamb has 37 catches in four games.
The one thing that breaks it is the scoreboard. Dallas is favored by 8.5 to 9.5. If the favorite is up three scores at halftime, Tampa Bay's carries go away and Dallas's passing volume goes away with them. That is what happened on Monday — the three misses on that page were all volume legs on the wrong side of a 21-point game — and it is why this list is built the way it is.
What changed from Monday's list
Monday's page went 17 of 20. The three misses were Penix completions, London targets and Kamara carries. Two rules came out of them and both are applied here. One: passing-volume legs — attempts, completions, targets — go on the trailing side only. There is no Prescott attempts or completions leg and no Lamb or Pickens targets leg on this page; Prescott's only leg is a yardage floor. Two: a back's carries and his own quarterback's pass attempts do not share a page — they need opposite games. Williams's carries are here; Prescott's attempts are not.
Who is out, and who gets the work
| Out | What he had | Where it goes | The leg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield QB, TB (out) | The offense | Daniels: shorter throws, more scrambles, more handoffs | Irving O39.5 rushing, O10.5 carries · Otton and Godwin catches · Daniels O5.5 carries |
| Jalen McMillan WR, TB (IR) | A starting receiver | The room is Egbuka, Godwin and rookie Ted Hurst — Godwin and Otton take the short work | Godwin O2.5 receptions, O19.5 yards · Otton O2.5 receptions · Egbuka O4.5 targets |
| Overshown LB, Durant CB, DAL (out) | Two starters on the league's 32nd-ranked defense by yards per play | Tampa Bay's run game and its underneath throws | Irving O54.5 combined · Otton O19.5 yards |
| Winfield S, Morrison CB, Dennis LB, TB (out) | Three defensive starters | Dallas's passing game against a thinned secondary | Lamb O5.5 receptions, O59.5 yards · Prescott O229.5 · Pickens O39.5 |
| Jonathan Mingo WR, DAL (Questionable) | Three targets all season | A few more snaps for Flournoy if he sits | Flournoy O19.5 yards |
| Drew Shelton OT (out), Tyler Smith G (Questionable), DAL | Up to two starting linemen | Tampa Bay is already 3rd against the run — quicker throws, more checkdowns to the back | Williams O1.5 receptions |
The twenty
| # | Player | Leg | Break-even | L10/L5/26/25 | This season | Usage | Conf | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bucky Irving TB | Over 39.5 Rush Yds −253 | 72% | 90/100/100/80 | 45, 89, 46, 61 | 15.8 carries · 57% share | 80 | The most certain role in the game against the worst matchup in the game. Dallas allows 150.2 rushing yards a night (31st) and 6.4 yards a play (32nd), and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown is out. Tampa Bay is starting an undrafted rookie at quarterback and gave Irving 16 carries in that rookie's first start. His low this season is 45 — on eight carries. Also on the main card at 44.5. |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb DAL | Over 5.5 Receptions −205 | 67% | 70/60/75/57 | 5, 8, 7, 17 | 9.1 targets · 24% share | 79 | Thirty-seven catches in four games, 17 of them last week. Tampa Bay is 3rd against the run, so Dallas throws on 59% of its plays, and the Buccaneers are missing safety Antoine Winfield and corner Benjamin Morrison. Catches, not yards — the Bucs are 8th against receiving yards and 17th in receptions allowed. The miss this season was five, in the opener. |
| 3 | Cade Otton TB | Over 2.5 Receptions −245 | 71% | 80/100/100/69 | 3, 5, 3, 4 | 5, 6, 6, 6 targets | 78 | Three or more in every game this season and five straight overall, on five or six targets every week — including four catches on six targets from Daniels on Sunday. A rookie quarterback's first read is his tight end. Dallas is 31st on third down. |
| 4 | Chris Godwin Jr. TB | Over 2.5 Receptions −330 | 77% | 90/80/100/78 | 4, 3, 3, 6 | 5.1 targets · 80% catch rate | 77 | Nine of his last ten. The short-area receiver: half his routes from the slot, an 80% catch rate, and six catches in Daniels's start. Jalen McMillan is on injured reserve, so the room is three deep. Second-best receiver-vs-corner matchup in the game (+0.31, slot). The price is the cost — he has to get there three times in four. |
| 5 | Bucky Irving TB | Over 10.5 Rush Att −323 | 76% | 80/80/75/90 | 8, 17, 15, 16 | 57% of Tampa Bay's carries | 77 | Seventeen, 15 and 16 the last three weeks. The miss was eight carries at Cincinnati in the opener. The risk is the same one every underdog back carries: a three-score deficit by halftime. Tampa Bay's alternative to handing off is asking an undrafted rookie to drop back behind the line that allows the most sacks in the league. |
| 6 | CeeDee Lamb DAL | Over 59.5 Rec Yds −292 | 74% | 60/60/75/71 | 44, 153, 112, 189 | 43% of Dallas's air yards | 76 | Twenty-four yards under his main line. Three of four this season and the misses in his ten-game window include a 4-yard game in last season's finale. The opponent rank (8th) is the wrong way for an over, which is why this is the floor and not the main number. |
| 7 | Javonte Williams DAL | Over 1.5 Receptions −360 | 78% | 80/80/100/56 | 5, 3, 2, 5 | 3.2 targets · three or more every game this season | 75 | Four for four this season and three or more targets in every game. Tampa Bay takes the run away (3rd), and Dallas's answer to that has been to throw to the back. The 56% from 2025 is a smaller passing-down role. The most expensive leg on the list — it needs to win four times in five. |
| 8 | Bucky Irving TB | Over 54.5 Rush + Rec Yds −233 | 70% | 90/100/100/80 | 93, 90, 58, 61 | 15.8 carries + 3.1 targets | 74 | Four for four this season and nine of ten. This is the version of Irving that survives a deficit: if the carries dry up, the checkdowns replace them. The dissent: 58 and 61 the last two weeks cleared by a handful. |
| 9 | Cade Otton TB | Over 19.5 Rec Yds −260 | 72% | 70/100/100/63 | 26, 38, 56, 37 | 5.1 targets · 15% share | 74 | Ten yards under his main line and cleared in all four games this season — by six yards at the closest. He had 37 from Daniels on Sunday. |
| 10 | Dak Prescott DAL | Over 229.5 Pass Yds −321 | 76% | 80/60/75/82 | 175, 279, 276, 335 | 35.2 attempts · 59% pass | 73 | A yardage floor, not a volume leg: 39 yards under his main line. Eight of ten, and the two misses in the window were last season's finale, when he threw 11 passes, and the opener. Tampa Bay is 9th against the pass but missing Winfield and Morrison. The risk is a blowout that takes away the fourth quarter — which is why his attempts and completions are not on this list. |
| 11 | Chris Godwin Jr. TB | Over 19.5 Rec Yds −280 | 74% | 90/80/100/78 | 40, 46, 25, 31 | 5.1 targets · 11 yards a catch | 72 | Twelve yards under his main line; nine of ten. Also on the main card at 24.5 — this is the same read five yards cheaper. |
| 12 | Ryan Flournoy DAL | Over 19.5 Rec Yds −275 | 73% | 80/100/100/44 | 22, 23, 22, 37 | 5.4 targets · 14% share · slot | 71 | Four for four this season, and five straight — but look at the margins: 22, 23, 22. He clears by a catch. Jonathan Mingo is Questionable, which adds snaps if he sits. The 44% from 2025 was a part-time role. |
| 13 | Cade Otton TB | Over 4.5 Targets −182 | 65% | 60/100/100/50 | 5, 6, 6, 6 | every game this season | 70 | Targets are the purest volume market — he does not have to catch them — and this is the trailing team, the side of the game where pass volume belongs. Five or more in every game this season. Three Otton legs on one list is one opinion three times; pick the one that fits the parlay. |
| 14 | Javonte Williams DAL | Over 69.5 Rush + Rec Yds −245 | 71% | 60/60/75/63 | 72, 50, 103, 83 | 15.3 carries + 3.2 targets | 68 | Three of four this season. Tampa Bay is 3rd against the run, so the rushing half is a grind — the receiving half (31, 20, 5 and 21 yards) is what gets him there. A Dallas lead adds carries: 19 in each of the last two games. |
| 15 | George Pickens DAL | Over 39.5 Rec Yds −309 | 76% | 60/60/75/76 | 28, 40, 82, 75 | 7.3 targets · 19% share | 67 | Twenty-four yards under his main line. He cleared by half a yard in one game and missed in the opener. His targets have swung from 11 to 3 in consecutive weeks, which is why this is yards at a low number and not a volume leg. |
| 16 | Javonte Williams DAL | Over 13.5 Rush Att −298 | 75% | 60/40/50/69 | 12, 12, 19, 19 | 56% of Dallas's carries | 66 | Twelve and 12, then 19 and 19. A 9.5-point favorite that gets the lead it is priced to get hands the ball off late — that is the script this leg needs. Against the 3rd-ranked run defense the carries transfer and the yards do not, so it is attempts. Prescott's pass attempts are deliberately not on this page with it. |
| 17 | Jalon Daniels TB | Over 5.5 Rush Att −230 | 70% | —/—/50/— | 8 in his one start | rookie QB · scrambles and designed runs | 64 | Eight carries for 55 yards in his only start. A trailing quarterback behind the league's most-sacked line leaves the pocket. One start is the whole sample, and everything from here down is ranked low for that reason. |
| 18 | Emeka Egbuka TB | Over 4.5 Targets −164 | 62% | 70/60/75/82 | 6, 5, 9, 4 | 5.8 targets · 76% of routes | 64 | The most routes on the team and the outside matchup the tool likes (+0.21). Targets, not yards — his yardage has been 63, 16, 62 and 13. The miss was four targets in Daniels's start, which is the argument against. |
| 19 | Jalon Daniels TB | Over 15.5 Completions −280 | 74% | —/—/50/— | 19 of 27 in his one start | short throws to Otton and Godwin | 62 | Nineteen completions on 27 attempts against Green Bay. Dallas is 30th in completions allowed. This is the trailing team's passing volume at a low bar — and it rests on one game. |
| 20 | Jalon Daniels TB | Over 29.5 Rush Yds −287 | 74% | —/—/50/— | 9 (relief), 55 (start) | 8 carries in his start | 60 | Fifteen yards under his main line, against the 31st-ranked run defense. The expert room has a play on his over at 44.5. If the carries leg (17) hits, this usually follows — do not count them as two opinions. |
Hit rates are the share of games the leg cleared at this exact line: last ten, last five, 2026 and 2025. "This season" lists the stat in each 2026 game in order. Confidence is confidence in the read, capped at 90, never a win probability. Ranked by how certain the role is — carries and targets per game, share, and whether an injury just made it bigger. Daniels has no ten-game window: his three legs rest on one start and are ranked 17, 19 and 20 for it.
Getting SYNKD: legs that move together
The Tampa Bay ground stack (legs 1, 5, 8, 17, 20). Irving's yards, Irving's carries, Irving's combined yards and Daniels's legs. One script: the Buccaneers stay within two scores and keep running at the 31st-ranked run defense. A clean three: Irving Over 39.5 rushing + Irving Over 10.5 carries + Daniels Over 5.5 carries.
The Tampa Bay short-pass stack (legs 3, 4, 9, 11, 13, 18, 19). Otton, Godwin, Egbuka's targets and Daniels's completions. This one gets better if Tampa Bay falls behind. A clean three: Otton Over 2.5 receptions + Godwin Over 2.5 receptions + Daniels Over 15.5 completions.
The Dallas air stack (legs 2, 6, 10, 12, 15). Lamb, Prescott's floor, Flournoy and Pickens. A clean three: Lamb Over 5.5 receptions + Prescott Over 229.5 + Flournoy Over 19.5.
Across both sides. Otton's catches and Lamb's catches are the two legs that hold up in almost any game — close, a Dallas runaway or a Tampa Bay lead all leave both intact. If you want two legs that do not depend on the score, those are the two. Add Irving's combined yards (8) for a third: it is the Irving leg that survives a deficit.
Do not pair: Williams's carries (16) with the Tampa Bay ground stack — one needs Dallas comfortably ahead, the other needs Tampa Bay close. Irving's carries (5) with Daniels's completions (19) in the same ticket as a Dallas blowout leg. And the three Daniels legs are one opinion about one start.
What is not on the list, and why
Prescott's attempts and completions, Lamb's and Pickens's targets — passing volume on a 9.5-point favorite; Monday's lesson. Jake Ferguson — four targets a game, and the main card rates his under. Ted Hurst — four for four over 16.5 and the best cornerback matchup in the game (+0.37), on two catches a game; under five targets means no leg. Egbuka's yardage — 63, 16, 62, 13. Daniels's passing yards and attempts — he threw for 148 on Sunday and the lowest floor in the band is 149.5. Williams's rushing yards — the carries transfer against the 3rd-ranked run defense; the yards do not. Kenny Gainwell, Sean Tucker, Tez Johnson, KaVontae Turpin — roles too small to rank. Touchdowns — binaries rank below every volume leg, and none made the twenty. Any under — this list is overs only.
The argument against the whole card
Twelve of the twenty legs are on a winless team quarterbacked by a player with one NFL start. Everything on the Tampa Bay side leans on what happened against Green Bay four days ago. The Dallas side leans on four games of 2026 data against a defense ranked top-ten against both the run and the pass. The prices are short: the average leg here has to win about 72% of the time to break even, and Monday's 85% is one night, not a rate. Check the inactives 90 minutes before kickoff — Tyler Smith and Jonathan Mingo are the two that move anything.